BigBurk's 2011/2012 Dutch Soccer Thread

BigBurk · 10-24-11, 03:18 PM

Originally posted by EasyPicks

bad weekend but u have done very good work so far!

I have picked more winners than losses, yes. But since most of my big plays seem to always lose I am down to a overall loss once again. I might just better leave the favs alone and focuss on the smaller teams and dogg plays.

Also, new system rule after this weekend; fade any team coming of a European match when playing an away game or a home game against a well rested, well playing opponent.

BigBurk · 10-24-11, 03:23 PM

That's the only system rule by the way, since I don't play a system.

escou · 10-25-11, 01:28 AM

Some overs in the Dutch Cup today

Oss game over 3 ofcourse

What do you think ?

JT OZ · 10-25-11, 11:08 AM

Originally posted by escou

Some overs in the Dutch Cup today

Oss game over 3 ofcourse

What do you think ?

I like all of them except maybe Zwolle-RKC, waiting to see what Burk has to say.

BigBurk · 10-25-11, 11:58 AM

Well.. Since it is Oss we are talking about, one would say this over 3 would be a easy hit. But do not I expect this one to easily go over 3 goals though since Den Bosch is a tough opponent. Don't expect scores like 5-3 or 4-4 on this one!! A small play on the over would be smart I guess.

The Zwolle - RKC match is a nice one. Last season Zwolle lead the Jupiler League almost throughout the whole season; only to let it slip away in the last matches of the season with RKC taking the title.

Zwolle has been getting great results in the Jupiler League eyeing to finally clinch the promotion this season whilst RKC has made a marvelous start in the Eredivisie with the current 11th place as a great start for them. I am leaning the RKC pk (+127) on this one, but once again I am not sure enough to play it. Don't see a lot of goals in this one.

escou · 10-25-11, 12:19 PM

yeah I noticed it was like that and havn't played it yet,maybe over 2 if ?I get the chance, but the odds went up alot after the game started, probably not so attacking game right now,

BigBurk · 10-25-11, 02:02 PM

Live in play:

Excelsior +100 / GVVV *LOCKED* (2 units)

BigBurk · 10-25-11, 02:36 PM

Wow.. Excelsior can't even defeat an amateur team...

BigBurk · 10-26-11, 10:06 AM

Well, I should have gone with my gut feeling yesterday and play RKC.

Most likely will be having ome or more plays tonight in the cup matches.

BigBurk · 10-26-11, 10:34 AM

Vitesse -0.5,-1 -122* vs ADO Den Haag (HOL-Cup) *LOCKED* (5 units)

Ajax ML -137* vs Roda JC (HOL-Cup) *LOCKED* (5 units)

Ajax vs Roda JC (HOL-Cup) Under 3,3.5 -110* *LOCKED* (2.5 units)

BigBurk · 10-26-11, 01:50 PM

Half stakes win on the Vitesse play.

Ajax and Roda already at 1-1 after only 3 minutes. Under is dead.

BigBurk · 10-26-11, 03:08 PM

God ******* damnit. Ajax took the 1-2 lead and 30 sec later Roda equalizes again.

BigBurk · 10-26-11, 03:33 PM

Ajax clinching the win tonight secures about 5 units profit in total. Roda and Ajax meet eachother again this weekend and I'll definitely take the ML again.

BigBurk · 10-27-11, 12:43 PM

Ajax ML for this saturday is -155 right now. Too much juice.

Might take them at -1 but not any higher.

BigBurk · 10-27-11, 03:02 PM

Wow.. Just when you think Feyenoord is getting back at level, with a great result for them at Ajax, they are down 2-0 at Go Ahead in the dutch cup......

escou · 10-28-11, 02:40 AM

Well cups are abit different from the league, no? Look at Az vs Dodrecht, 2-2 FT. I need your advice today on the Eerste Devisie OVERS, what do you think? Looks like Oss is always a good team to play the over on, but the play Eindhoven, one of the most deffensive teams in that league, on the hand Eindhoven has to score some goals at some point, but they have the best deffensive record in the league. Right now the Zwolle game looks like it will be hitting the over and Fortuna Sittard vs Almere. I was wondering if you have any idea when overs occur in the Dutch Second league, for example is it when good team plays a weak team, or more like when teams are of equal strenght? You know for example in finland it is when a good team plays a bad team we know it will hit the over, but in Germany it is more like it to be an over if middle table teams play vs eachtoher. Thank you and good luck today

.

psychofking · 10-28-11, 04:15 AM

Originally posted by escou

Well cups are abit different from the league, no? Look at Az vs Dodrecht, 2-2 FT. I need your advice today on the Eerste Devisie OVERS, what do you think? Looks like Oss is always a good team to play the over on, but the play Eindhoven, one of the most deffensive teams in that league, on the hand Eindhoven has to score some goals at some point, but they have the best deffensive record in the league. Right now the Zwolle game looks like it will be hitting the over and Fortuna Sittard vs Almere. I was wondering if you have any idea when overs occur in the Dutch Second league, for example is it when good team plays a weak team, or more like when teams are of equal strenght? You know for example in finland it is when a good team plays a bad team we know it will hit the over, but in Germany it is more like it to be an over if middle table teams play vs eachtoher. Thank you and good luck today

.

yeah, i was wondering about them, too

BobW · 10-28-11, 08:04 AM

Today, all games will be Over 2.5 in the Eerste Divisie.

BigBurk · 10-28-11, 12:33 PM

Tonight (starting in half an hour!!):

NAC Breda (HOL-E) -1 -131* vs VVV Venlo (HOL-E) *LOCKED* (4 units)

NAC Breda (HOL-E) 1st Half -½ -105* vs VVV Venlo (HOL-E) *LOCKED* (2 units)

I expect NAC to take this home game against a weakened VVV. I am confident they will lead throughout the whole match but just to be sure I played the whole game a bit bigger.

Now, regarding escou's question about tonight's game; I must admit I don't really pay much attention to the Jupiler League bút this would be my leans;

Fortuna - Almere City: I feel this one wil for sure have 3 goals in it, it will really depend on Almere City whether they will go over the 3½ line. Playing this over could be the right thing.

Eindhoven - Oss: Easy Eindhoven win: probably 2-1 or 3-1. Not very sure on the over.

Telstar - Helmond: Push or over.

MVV - Zwolle: Zwolle is too strong for MVV for them to score at least two goals. I expect a 0-2 or 1-2 something like that.

The lines for all the games are set at 3,3½ which in my opinion is the most risky line to play. Zwolle to win straight up (+118) could be the best bet tonight.

BigBurk · 10-28-11, 12:34 PM

Originally posted by BobW

Today, all games will be Over 2.5 in the Eerste Divisie.

IF your bookie offers the 2.5 for all of them I would say at least 3 will hit the over.

BigBurk · 10-28-11, 01:55 PM

Originally posted by BigBurk

Tonight (starting in half an hour!!):

NAC Breda (HOL-E) -1 -131* vs VVV Venlo (HOL-E) *LOCKED* (4 units) *WINNER*

NAC Breda (HOL-E) 1st Half -½ -105* vs VVV Venlo (HOL-E) *LOCKED* (2 units) *WINNER*

NAC leading 3-1 at half time with VVV having had a red card.

BigBurk · 10-28-11, 02:58 PM

+6 units tonight!

BigBurk · 10-28-11, 05:16 PM

I hope at least one of you took Zwolle on the ML!!

beefcake · 10-28-11, 09:49 PM

Nice rebound from the Ass Fukking you took last week..

BigBurk · 10-29-11, 04:31 AM

Thanks mate. Will be posting my weekend picks in a couple of hours.

escou · 10-29-11, 05:53 AM

Yo Burk thanx for the Zwolle hint man, I went with the PK live and big for the last minutes and hit it. GL today

BigBurk · 10-29-11, 07:04 AM

Originally posted by escou

Yo Burk thanx for the Zwolle hint man, I went with the PK live and big for the last minutes and hit it. GL today

BigBurk · 10-29-11, 07:40 AM

Today's games:

PSV Eindhoven (HOL-E)/Twente (HOL-E) Under 2½,3 -116* *LOCKED* (2.5 units)

Twente (HOL-E) pk -142* vs PSV Eindhoven (HOL-E) *LOCKED* (4 units)

Twente and PSV are competing for the second plays and most importantly not to lose any points and see AZ keeping their advantage. The last years have shown us:

2006/07 FC Twente - PSV 1-0
2007/08 FC Twente - PSV 0-0
2008/09 FC Twente - PSV 1-1
2009/10 FC Twente - PSV 1-1
2010/11 FC Twente - PSV 2-0

First thing; PSV playing at Twente is a tough deal for them, since they never seem to get away with the win. Secondly these matches are lacking goals year after year. I don't expect PSV to be able to get the three points today at Twente who are in great shape lately. Furthermore; Chadli is fully fit again for Twente which gives them the edge I feel.

Heerenveen (HOL-E) -½,-1 -133* vs ADO Den Haag (HOL-E) *LOCKED* (4 units)

ADO is playing very bad lately, and although Heerenveen hasn't done great in their last two home matches (two 1-1 draws) I see them winning this one against ADO tonight quite easily.

RKC Waalwick (HOL-E) -114* vs Exelsior (HOL-E) *LOCKED* (3 units)

I will be very short about Excelsior; if you lose a home match in the Cup against an amateur team, you don't deserve anything. I'm sure RKC will take full advantage of the disorder in this team.

Ajax (HOL-E) -½,-1 -141* vs Roda JC (HOL-E) *LOCKED* (4 units)

Well, the 2-4 victory of last wednesday at Roda has given Ajax the confidence they will pull another win tonight and make sure they gain some points on Twente and/or PSV. Ajax can not afford to lose anymore points in this stage of the competition.

BigBurk · 10-29-11, 03:46 PM

Not a great night but still made some profit. I am never betting an under again in my life.

escou · 10-30-11, 03:15 AM

Well good calls, was about to tell you that Twente-PSV will be over after I watched the first 10 min of the game, but too late

Look when there is a long history of unders and both teams want the win badly and both are good teams with lets face it okay deffenders for Holland , but not on top European level, I always think it is better to go with the over, looks more promissing, but again depends very much on how the game looks like, this derby was very attacking and open AND with Niki Mihailov on the goal Twente will always concede goals

escou · 10-30-11, 03:16 AM

Any leans for today? I like the Feyanoord over and Sparta-Cambuur from the second devision over also. GL

BigBurk · 10-30-11, 05:37 AM

Originally posted by escou

Well good calls, was about to tell you that Twente-PSV will be over after I watched the first 10 min of the game, but too late

Look when there is a long history of unders and both teams want the win badly and both are good teams with lets face it okay deffenders for Holland , but not on top European level, I always think it is better to go with the over, looks more promissing, but again depends very much on how the game looks like, this derby was very attacking and open AND with Niki Mihailov on the goal Twente will always concede goals

Very true! Just wouldn't have thought they would have scored two goals after only 10 minutes! Posting my plays in half an hour!

BigBurk · 10-30-11, 06:00 AM

Only 3 plays today;

Vitesse (HOL-E)/De Graafschap (HOL-E) Over 2½ -121* *LOCKED* (2.5 units)

Groningen (HOL-E) pk,-½ +101* vs Feyenoord (HOL-E) *LOCKED* (2.5 units)

AZ Alkmaar (HOL-E)/SC Heracles (HOL-E) Over 2½,3 -115* *LOCKED* (3.5 units)

Not sure about the Feyenoord over, since Groningen always seems to compete against the "bigger" teams. Ajax lost 1-0 there this season whilst Twente only managed to get the 1-1 draw. I do think Groningen will be able to beat Feyenoord today.

If you could get the over 3 at Sparta I would take it. But once again 5dimes is offering 3,3½ so I'm not touching it! GL today!

BigBurk · 10-30-11, 10:09 AM

1-1 until now with Vitesse grabbing the 0-1 win at the Graafschap whilst Groningen is leading 4-0 over Feyenoord with 10 mins to play. Hoping the over at the AZ play will hit to make some profit today!!

BigBurk · 10-30-11, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by BigBurk

Only 3 plays today;

Vitesse (HOL-E)/De Graafschap (HOL-E) Over 2½ -121* *LOCKED* (2.5 units) *LOSS*

Groningen (HOL-E) pk,-½ +101* vs Feyenoord (HOL-E) *LOCKED* (2.5 units) *WINNER*

AZ Alkmaar (HOL-E)/SC Heracles (HOL-E) Over 2½,3 -115* *LOCKED* (3.5 units) *LOSS*

Bad day today. But still made some profit this weekend. Focussing less on totals from now on, since this is where most of the bets are lost lately. Sides have been more steady.