Nordic soccer 2011

[Vaughany]

Huh?! you had a losing day...unreal . You will get them next time, im sure of it! I havent been much in the mma forum lately, been quite busy and only been focused on this thread. I´ll be sure to check your thread when UFC 129 comes closer!

Yeah had to happen eventually...I've never done that well with Strikeforce events! 129 should be good, already got a few arbs for guaranteed profit and gonna be big on Machida KO of the Night...think he's gonna retire Randy.

[Mr.Kitty]

Yeah had to happen eventually...I've never done that well with Strikeforce events! 129 should be good, already got a few arbs for guaranteed profit and gonna be big on Machida KO of the Night...think he's gonna retire Randy.

Yeah, Machida is sort of due for a win, think he was a bit unlucky against Rampage, I thought he won that decision. I remember before his fights with Shogun, he literally looked untouchable. So elusive and quick on his feet, it was really fascinating to see how effective he was scoring points, in and out and he was so fast that he dident put himself in danger.

I think Randy is in a world of hurt if he tries to stand with Lyoto but hes a very smart fighter and wont do that. Im sure the strategy is to pin him up against the cage, use some dirty boxing and take him down but I dont see him finishing Lyoto on the ground or on the feet for that matter. Lyoto is good from his back, only way Randy can win is by decision IMO, by tire him out on the ground and clinch.

I cant remember how good Machidas takedown defense is, im sure Randy will be able to complete a takedown sometime during the fight but Machida might be able to stop most of them? have to rewatch his fights against Evans and Ortiz. Can he keep it standing hes got a great chance to win by KO/TKO, and if I remember correctly Randys been tagged quite easily his last couple of fights and Machida has very accurate straight punches.

Its very possible im gonna get on the Machida by TKO/KO train!


EDIT; I see now on FightMetric that Machida has 83.8% takedown defense

[Inteno]

Tippeligaen today: Viking vs. Molde.
I'm thinking Molde for the win. Better squad. Great match vs Tromsø at home a week ago. 2-2, but should've won had they not missed all thouse opportunities. Viking coming from a 1-0 win away vs Fredrikstad. But still, not playing great football atm. Should see some goals today as well. DNB Molde at 2.45? Molde over 1.5 at 2.80? Total over 3.5 at 2.70? Do you have any input?

[Vaughany]

Yeah, Machida is sort of due for a win, think he was a bit unlucky against Rampage, I thought he won that decision. I remember before his fights with Shogun, he literally looked untouchable. So elusive and quick on his feet, it was really fascinating to see how effective he was scoring points, in and out and he was so fast that he dident put himself in danger.

I think Randy is in a world of hurt if he tries to stand with Lyoto but hes a very smart fighter and wont do that. Im sure the strategy is to pin him up against the cage, use some dirty boxing and take him down but I dont see him finishing Lyoto on the ground or on the feet for that matter. Lyoto is good from his back, only way Randy can win is by decision IMO, by tire him out on the ground and clinch.

I cant remember how good Machidas takedown defense is, im sure Randy will be able to complete a takedown sometime during the fight but Machida might be able to stop most of them? have to rewatch his fights against Evans and Ortiz. Can he keep it standing hes got a great chance to win by KO/TKO, and if I remember correctly Randys been tagged quite easily his last couple of fights and Machida has very accurate straight punches.

Its very possible im gonna get on the Machida by TKO/KO train!


EDIT; I see now on FightMetric that Machida has 83.8% takedown defense

Yeah, Couture's never faced anybody as elusive and effective at counter striking as Machida. Guys like Coleman, Vera, Nog have minimal footwork so was not difficult for Randy to grind them against the cage or catch them with a punch. Even against zombie Nog he got outboxed and dropped twice...Nog could of easily finished tht fight in the first round if he'd followed up his knock down with more punches but instead immediately went for the submission because he'd said in the build up tht he wanted to be first to submit Randy since Ricco Rodriguez back at UFC36. I think Machida only has to land a grazing punch and it will knock Randy down, and he should have enough GnP to finish him off. Moreover there's no way Couture takes a flurry liek Rampage took in tht last round. Machida's takedown defence is solid and he's good at reversals so even if Randy does go for the Vera technique of pinning him against cage and workin dirty boxing I dont think he'll be too successful. I agree tho that Couture's only chance is to get the decision and dont doubt tht he probly will get a takedown at some point. Machida is very tough to keep down tho as he showed against Rampage and Shogun. Should get decent odds for MAchida KO of the Night as well, there arnt many "KO artists" on the card so strong chance he gets it if he does fnish Randy with strikes.

[Mr.Kitty]

Tippeligaen today: Viking vs. Molde. I'm thinking Molde for the win. Better squad. Great match vs Tromsø at home a week ago. 2-2, but should've won had they not missed all thouse opportunities. Viking coming from a 1-0 win away vs Fredrikstad. But still, not playing great football atm. Should see some goals today as well. DNB Molde at 2.45? Molde over 1.5 at 2.80? Total over 3.5 at 2.70? Do you have any input?

Im having a hard time picking a side here, Viking where pretty strong at home last year 8-4-3, 32:16 and they won 4-1 over Molde but Molde are a new team now with Ole Gunnar Solkjaer and they´ve been playing good as you say. Vikings only home game was against Vålerenga, and thats tough because they are probably the best team this year. So I think they will play better today, I dont think its wrong to try Molde DnB because they have been playing good but they have to be sharper. The over looks like a good bet, both have something to prove and Molde are missing two central defenders.

Good luck!

[Mr.Kitty]

Yeah, Couture's never faced anybody as elusive and effective at counter striking as Machida. Guys like Coleman, Vera, Nog have minimal footwork so was not difficult for Randy to grind them against the cage or catch them with a punch. Even against zombie Nog he got outboxed and dropped twice...Nog could of easily finished tht fight in the first round if he'd followed up his knock down with more punches but instead immediately went for the submission because he'd said in the build up tht he wanted to be first to submit Randy since Ricco Rodriguez back at UFC36. I think Machida only has to land a grazing punch and it will knock Randy down, and he should have enough GnP to finish him off. Moreover there's no way Couture takes a flurry liek Rampage took in tht last round. Machida's takedown defence is solid and he's good at reversals so even if Randy does go for the Vera technique of pinning him against cage and workin dirty boxing I dont think he'll be too successful. I agree tho that Couture's only chance is to get the decision and dont doubt tht he probly will get a takedown at some point. Machida is very tough to keep down tho as he showed against Rampage and Shogun. Should get decent odds for MAchida KO of the Night as well, there arnt many "KO artists" on the card so strong chance he gets it if he does fnish Randy with strikes.

Good point, im going to follow you on this

[Mr.Kitty]

Sweden Superettan; Västerås SK v Åtvidabergs FF, Åtvidabergs FF @ 2.10 (3x)

Norway Tippeligaen; Viking FK v Molde, over 2.5, 3 @ 2.00 (1x)

Some short writeups;

Västerås SK-Åtvidabergs FF; Västerås are newcomers in Superettan after vinning division 1 (north). At home they where very strong, 11-1-1, 37:14 record. As you can see they play offensive minded at home, with posession and speed. They are a young and inexperienced team at this level who now have been forced to think more like an elite club. According to their website, they´ve had problems with injuries on many players during the preseason but most of them are coming back within two weeks.
Åtvidaberg got relegated from Allsvenskan last year and are one of the favorites to win Superettan this year. Many players decided to stay and the coach wants to turn ÅFF from a counter attack team into a team that holds posession and are controlling the game. Its very possible since the teams in Superettan are of less quality then those in Allsvenskan. Its clear to me that ÅFF have more quality and experience then VSK and the odds on away win looks like a gift!

Viking FK-Molde; Check post #75, and its time I hit an over this round of Tippeligaen!

[Brazilian soccer]

Sorry to post it here on your topic, but I really like this game:
Big Bet in: Landskrona-BoIS vs IFK-Varnamo: Over 2,5@ 1,95
Small Bet: Landskrona-BoIS vs IFK-Varnamo: Over 3,5@ 2,95
Big Bet in IFK-Varnamo AH+1@ 2,00
Small Bet:IFK-Varnamo ML@ 7,00

What do you think about this game

[Mr.Kitty]

Allsvenskan; Kalmar FF v Djurgården, under 2, 2.5 @ 1.925 (1x)


Kalmar FF-Djurgården; Both teams played aweful offense in the opening game, almost dident create any chances at all. The derby between Djurgården and AIK was for the most part a boring game even tho the atmosphere was great in the arena. The game had to be paused at times because of the audience who lit bengals and at one point accidentally set a big banner on fire . Highlights:


Kalmar played a boring game against Halmstad as expected, almost no chances for any team. I mean the highlight video is only 1:33 for crying out loud!



I think a tight game is to be expected if theres no early goal, the chance that the attack goes from terrible to brilliant in just one game is quite small.

[Mr.Kitty]

Sorry to post it here on your topic, but I really like this game: Big Bet in: Landskrona-BoIS vs IFK-Varnamo: Over 2,5@ 1,95 Small Bet: Landskrona-BoIS vs IFK-Varnamo: Over 3,5@ 2,95 Big Bet in IFK-Varnamo AH+1@ 2,00 Small Bet:IFK-Varnamo ML@ 7,00 What do you think about this game

I dont mind at all! this is what I aimed for, more discussion and other people then myself pitching in with opinions and plays.

Landskrona are one of the favorites this season after a good first year with former Celtic, Man United, Barcelona star Henrik Larsson as coach. The midfield is very strong with Lantz as the leading name, he can easily play in Allsvenskan if he wanted and be one of the best midfielders but chose Landskrona instead. They are stronger then last year and are offensive minded.

Värnamo sold their two best players Baffo and Thern and like Västerås they have a young team that can surprise with their attacking style of play. The question is how consistant they will be. During the preseason these two teams met and Värnamo won 3-2 but when it really matters I think Landskrona will win. But the odds have been moving in favor of Värnamo. Swedish soccer is pretty unpredictable which means its never a bad idea to try a underdog if you got the feeling. Its the first game of the season and Värnamo won during the preseason so I wouldent count Värnamo out. The over can sertaintly hit, I expected a few games to go over during the first round. Historically the last couple of seasons has seen more overs then unders during the first round with the exception of last year.

Good luck!

[Mr.Kitty]

Hmm, odds on Åtvidaberg has went up a bit, AH 0 from 1.60 to 1.675 and for straight win 2.10 to 2.15. VSK have crushing H2H 5-0-0 but last game was 6 years ago and I refuse to think that ÅFF have 46.51% chance to win. 2.15 is value.

[Brazilian soccer]

25' Landskrona-BoIS 0 vs 1 IFK-Varnamo

[Brazilian soccer]

45' Landskrona-BoIS 1 vs 1 IFK-Varnamo

[Vaughany]

Sweden Superettan; Västerås SK v Åtvidabergs FF, Åtvidabergs FF @ 2.10 (3x)

Norway Tippeligaen; Viking FK v Molde, over 2.5, 3 @ 2.00 (1x)

Some short writeups;

Västerås SK-Åtvidabergs FF; Västerås are newcomers in Superettan after vinning division 1 (north). At home they where very strong, 11-1-1, 37:14 record. As you can see they play offensive minded at home, with posession and speed. They are a young and inexperienced team at this level who now have been forced to think more like an elite club. According to their website, they´ve had problems with injuries on many players during the preseason but most of them are coming back within two weeks.
Åtvidaberg got relegated from Allsvenskan last year and are one of the favorites to win Superettan this year. Many players decided to stay and the coach wants to turn ÅFF from a counter attack team into a team that holds posession and are controlling the game. Its very possible since the teams in Superettan are of less quality then those in Allsvenskan. Its clear to me that ÅFF have more quality and experience then VSK and the odds on away win looks like a gift!

Viking FK-Molde; Check post #75, and its time I hit an over this round of Tippeligaen!

[Mr.Kitty]

Sweden Superettan; Västerås SK v Åtvidabergs FF, Åtvidabergs FF @ 2.10 (3x) WIN

Norway Tippeligaen; Viking FK v Molde, over 2.5, 3 @ 2.00 (1x) WIN

Allsvenskan; Kalmar FF v Djurgården, under 2, 2.5 @ 1.925 (1x) LOSS

Results:

Västerås SK 0 - 2 Åtvidabergs FF

Viking FK 2 - 2 Molde

Kalmar FF 3 - 2 Djurgården
O´boy, I was wrong and it irritates me even more because I initially was going to play Brage - Ängelholm over 2.5. I even had a writeup finished ready to post, then I began to hesitate and tried Kalmar under instead. Thats why that play was in another post.
Expect the unexpected in Allsvenskan.

A positive day overall and my big play won .

Record: 14-9-2, +10.32 units

[Mr.Kitty]

[rdjitm]

excellent work my friend

[Mr.Kitty]

Denmark Superligaen; Lyngby v Midtjylland, Halftime/Fulltime: 1/2 @ 21.00 (0.5x)

[Metanoia]

Hello Mr Kitty i just found your thread and it's awesome, i'll be around to participate and help whenever i can. Last season i've betted a lot in Nordic football, including lower divisions, youth leagues and women football, specially the goals market, and it will be a big investment for me again this spring/summer with most other leagues ending soon.

Good luck to you and your thread

[Mr.Kitty]

Hello Mr Kitty i just found your thread and it's awesome, i'll be around to participate and help whenever i can. Last season i've betted a lot in Nordic football, including lower divisions, youth leagues and women football, specially the goals market, and it will be a big investment for me again this spring/summer with most other leagues ending soon. Good luck to you and your thread

Sounds good too me


I might have a bet or two later on.

[Kemalettin]

thanks for this thread

[Mr.Kitty]

News: Allsvenskan, former BK Häcken striker/offensive midfielder Paulinho are about to sign a contract with Örebro SK. Having been without a contract since his return to Brazil, Paulinho felt he wanted to come back to Sweden to a club with high ambitions. Paulinho was an asset to Häcken and will also be that to an already offensive Örebro team. It will take atleast a month for him to be able to play because he needs some physical training first to get in shape.

[Mr.Kitty]

Sweden Superettan; GIF Sundsvall v Assyriska, over 2.5 @ 1.975 (1x)

GIF Sundsvall-Assyriska; I saw both teams opening matches, Sundsvall played a mediocre game and lost 2-1 against Öster while Assyriska played good and won 1-0 against Hammarby. 1-0 gives the wrong image, it felt like the match could easily have had more goals. Midfielder Haris Laitinen was a giant and did everything right and Jones Kusi Asare showed that he still is a dangerous striker in Swedish soccer.
If I only judge from those games, I would give the edge to Assyriska but they have never won at Sundsvall. I expect a competative back-and-forth game in which Sundsvall have a big urge to prove themselves in front of the home crowd. In turn, Assyriska will be full of confidence after their first round win over top competition. Both teams played mostly overs last season;
Sundsvall @ home = 11 overs in 15 games
Assyriska @ away = 9 overs in 15 games
Last meeting: GIF Sundsvall 3 - 1 Assyriska

I am going to watch this game on tv.

[Metanoia]

You cashed too bad i wasn't home and didn't see the pick

[Mr.Kitty]

Sweden Superettan; GIF Sundsvall v Assyriska, over 2.5 @ 1.975 (1x) WIN

Result: GIF Sundsvall 1 - 2 Assyriska

Enjoyable game to watch, after the early goal Assyriska got passive and overprotective while Sundsvall tried to get their passing game to work. In the second half Sundsvall looked much better right from the beginning and took over. 1-1 came early and then on both team went for the win. Haris Laitinen was good this game too, he had a couple of shots from 25-30 meters without any success. However, Assyriska got a freekick just outside the box, and Laitinen stepped up and scored 1-2! This was Assyriskas first win ever in Sundsvall.

I´ll be back tomorrow. Think im gonna roll with Åtvidaberg on the handicap at home.

[svenodds]

nice

[Mr.Kitty]

Sweden Superettan; Åtvidabergs FF v Qviding FIF, Åtvidabergs FF -1, -1.5 @ 1.95 (2x)

Åtvidabergs FF-Qviding FIF; Last week I followed Åtvid with success when they won 0-2 against Västerås. They won but dident quite impress even tho they pretty much dominated the game. The tempo was low and you could tell that it was the first game of the season, but none the less they won by a two goal margin away from home. Opponents today will be Qviding, a team that got to qualify against Öster for a spot in Superettan. They lost but where allowed to advance anyway, because Örgryte had such big financial problems that they where forced to relegate automatically. Very few players have any experience from playing in a elite league. In the opening game Qviding lost 0-1 at home to Degerfors in a boring game without much chances. It should be a large difference in quality between the teams and at home Åtvidaberg had a 10-2-3, 34:16 record when they came second in Superettan 2009.

[Mr.Kitty]

Odds moving in favor of GAIS with 10mins to kick-off in Allsvenskan, Halmstad vs GAIS. Interesting, GAIS played really well at home against Trelleborg and crushed them with 4-0. Brazilian duo Wanderson/Santos was dominating. Halmstad played a good game against Malmö and had the lead but a red card for Zamora screwed their chances to win.

[nicsbr]

I like your prediction how allsvenskan will end

How can you think Elfsborg who sucks at real grass will win whole shit? Its a race between Helsingborg, Örebro and Malmö.

[nicsbr]

Odds moving in favor of GAIS with 10mins to kick-off in Allsvenskan, Halmstad vs GAIS. Interesting, GAIS played really well at home against Trelleborg and crushed them with 4-0. Brazilian duo Wanderson/Santos was dominating. Halmstad played a good game against Malmö and had the lead but a red card for Zamora screwed their chances to win.

Dont know if you watched the match or only highlights but i saw it live and Malmö had everything before the red card it was just a question of time until they would equalize.

Good bet for today is Kalmar DNB away at Mjällby.

[Mr.Kitty]

I like your prediction how allsvenskan will end

How can you think Elfsborg who sucks at real grass will win whole shit? Its a race between Helsingborg, Örebro and Malmö.

Of course you dont like my prediction, I see you´re a Malmö FF fan so thats understandable. I think its quite open between Helsingborg, Örebro, Malmö and Elfsborg. What you mention about the grass is true, Elfsborg must win more away games to be able to contend for the title and it dident start well for them in Helsingborg. I had difficulty placing the top four teams, was a bit influenced by what others thought and chose Elfsborg. They have a strong squad but so does all the top four teams. I believe the summer transfer window can be important when we see which players are leaving and how they are replaced.
It was as simple as that, I think what speaks in favor of MFF is that they got to keep their squad that won last year but this year they have to think about Champions League aswell which might affect the league games.

I basically could have picked any of those four teams to win, the season is long and I dont have any high hopes to have predicted the table right. And it doesnt matter, only did it for fun to get excited about the new season.

Dont know if you watched the match or only highlights but i saw it live and Malmö had everything before the red card it was just a question of time until they would equalize.

Good bet for today is Kalmar DNB away at Mjällby.

Ive only seen highlights and read some matchreports, all of them said it was fairly close before the red card. MFF had the initiative but Halmstad had their chances aswell. Im just sayin that Halmstad played a good game because they where able to keep it close and even took the lead, not a lot of ppl gave them much of a chance because MFF looks very strong.

Good luck on Kalmar DnB.

[Mr.Kitty]

Sweden Superettan; Åtvidabergs FF v Qviding FIF, Åtvidabergs FF -1, -1.5 @ 1.95 (2x) WIN

Result: Åtvidabergs FF 4 - 0 Qviding FIF

[svenodds]

Result: Åtvidabergs FF 4 - 0 Qviding FIF

[nicsbr]

Sweden Superettan; Åtvidabergs FF v Qviding FIF, Åtvidabergs FF -1, -1.5 @ 1.95 (2x)

Åtvidabergs FF-Qviding FIF; Last week I followed Åtvid with success when they won 0-2 against Västerås. They won but dident quite impress even tho they pretty much dominated the game. The tempo was low and you could tell that it was the first game of the season, but none the less they won by a two goal margin away from home. Opponents today will be Qviding, a team that got to qualify against Öster for a spot in Superettan. They lost but where allowed to advance anyway, because Örgryte had such big financial problems that they where forced to relegate automatically. Very few players have any experience from playing in a elite league. In the opening game Qviding lost 0-1 at home to Degerfors in a boring game without much chances. It should be a large difference in quality between the teams and at home Åtvidaberg had a 10-2-3, 34:16 record when they came second in Superettan 2009.

Great took it too

[Mr.Kitty]

Great took it too

Thanks

Tomorrow theres a lot of matches, I like a few bets already. Might post some later because im afraid the odds might drop.