EP36's FIFA-Fo-Fum World Cup Wonderland

EaglesPhan36 · 06-26-10, 01:23 AM

Play #31: Uruguay-South Korea Total Corner Kicks OVER 9.5 [+100]
As usual, corner kicks are a combination of dumb luck & skill. For this match, I think this is worth a shot at even odds. South Korea has tremendous team speed and their ability to use that speed could lead to clearances and corners in the Uruguay portion of the pitch if they gain an advantage on a defender. The Koreans had 15 corners in their three group stage matches with the low coming against Argentina at two. They had six vs. Greece and seven vs. Nigeria. Uruguay had their most corners in a game that featured some pace against Mexico with 7, while they yielded 6 corners to the Mexicans. I think Uruguay could take advantage of the South Koreans with Forlan, Suarez and Cavani using their skill up front to force the action. Let's see how Lady Luck likes us as the Round of 16 begins.

vinnysantos · 06-28-10, 05:27 AM

Where have you gone EP?

CatPulp · 06-28-10, 08:31 AM

Yeah, EP, loved reading your opinions. Where did you go?

EaglesPhan36 · 06-28-10, 08:44 AM

Sorry fellas, was out of town on Saturday and most of Sunday.

PARLAY: Netherlands + Brazil [+118]
I think these two matches today are pretty straight forward. The Dutch have to be patient again today as Slovakia will be looking to defend, defend, defend to start with. Would not be surprised to see a scoreless first half. The Oranje though possess an attack the likes of which Slovakia has not yet seen this tournament. Remember, Slovakia was really not in the mix for advancement before their shock win over Italy. They had just one goal in two matches prior to that. The Netherlands quietly went unbeaten through the group stages and with the exception of a PK goal to Cameroon, had not allowed anyone to score. Superb news ahead of this match is that Robben is back in the lineup for the Dutch. He pushes Van Der Vaart to the bench, but adds a great dynamic to their attack.

The Brazil ML is at a pretty tame price and I can only think it is because some are wondering about the Brazilians after their scoreless draw with Portugal. I don't read a ton into that match as Brazil was being fairly careful to make sure that they advanced at the top of the group and did not match up with Spain in the Round of 16. Chile will be missing a few players due to suspension. Brazil should have both Elano and Kaka back which will make an immediate difference in their attack. Remember, Brazil beat Chile twice in qualifcation for the World Cup by scores of 4-2 & 3-0. Cesar needs to be strong in goal today for Brazil, but I think if they are patient as Spain was in their encounter with Chile last time out, the goals will again be found and the Brazilians will move on.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-28-10, 08:45 AM

Also would add as I said in someone else's thread. If you can get the O/U on Brazil-Chile at 2 goals at your book, I'd feel comfortable laying the chalk. I can't see that match with less than two goals, but it could be possible that two goals would be the finishing point ... although I do fancy at least three goals personally.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-28-10, 10:40 AM

Sneijder ices it, 2-0 Dutch. Getting the 1st half of the parlay offers a variety of options for Brazil-Chile. I'm going to watch the first half and see what transpires. Chance at half time to take Chile if needed to hedge, but I do believe Brazil will win that one.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-28-10, 02:20 PM

No need to hedge. Ride Brazil to the finish line.

CatPulp · 06-28-10, 02:51 PM

Awesome opinions!! Thanks.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-28-10, 03:22 PM

Nice to get back on track after a pretty crappy couple days.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-28-10, 10:54 PM

PICK: JAPAN +333
Sometimes you just gotta take a shot at something that has a real shot at a superb price. Less aggressive wager here would be Japan PK +187 or to advance at +165. My blog on what I think of this match.

Paraguay made it this far in part by the failure of Italy in the Group Stage. Japan is primed for an upset behind a disciplined squad that is led by Keisuke Honda.

Group F winners Paraguay will do battle with the second-place team from Group E, Japan, in a Round of 16 matchup that has historic implications for both soccer teams. Neither country has ever made the quarterfinals of the World Cup, so the winner of this one will forever be kept in the hearts of their home country.

The Paraguayans finished a consistent run through the group stage with a scoreless draw against New Zealand. Getting the single point in that match allowed Paraguay to finish on top of Group F, ahead of Slovakia.

One can make the argument that Paraguay is the weakest of the group winners in South Africa as a result of the teams they played in the first stage of the 2010 World Cup. They scored a convincing 2-0 win over Slovakia and then drew to both the Italians and New Zealand, scoring just one other goal en route to the knockout stages.
Truly, this World Cup team has not been tested defensively. The Paraguayans will find out quickly against the Japanese just how good or bad they are in that capacity.

Japan shocked many with its 3-1 win over a Denmark squad most had fancied to advance behind The Netherlands in Group E. Japan used superior speed and counter attacks to crush the Danes in what amounted to an elimination match.

Keisuke Honda was especially lethal in the group stages with two goals. The CSKA Moscow midfielder also showed some great precision from free kicks which will help against a stiff Paraguay defense.
Japan shut down Cameroon 1-0 in the group stage and fought hard in a narrow 1-0 loss to The Netherlands. If Japan is able to recreate the defensive stalemate they placed on the Dutch against Paraguay, the Japanese will give themselves a great shot to win.

Strategy-wise, expect Japan to do what has gotten them to this point at the World Cup. Defend and then strike with deadly speed and accuracy on the counter attack. Paraguay has already talked about what they need to do to avoid putting themselves into perilous "fast break" conditions against the Japanese counter attack. Paraguay is not unlike Japan in how they play the game. Defense first. Counter attack second.

Don't expect a ton of excitement in the first half as both teams may be willing to defend and feel the other team out for 45 minutes. Paraguay does not lack several solid attacking options, including Manchester City striker Roque Santa Cruz and forward Lucas Barrios. Paraguay had three different goal scorers in the group stages, none by Santa Cruz. He will need to lend his experience to this group and step up if Paraguay is to advance.

Paraguay is the soccer betting favorite in this one at +115 with Japan listed at +320. On the handicap, Paraguay is -0.5 at +113 with Japan at +0.5 at -128. The draw is available at +223.The total is two, currently favoring the 'under' at -113. Paraguay to advance to the quarterfinals is -170, while Japan is +120.

This match should feature plenty of drama as the second-half progresses, but perhaps not a ton of scoring. Despite being the betting underdog, I'd have to rate Japan with a really good shot to advance here. The team's speed and the special playmaking and finishing ability of Honda could ultimately make the difference.I like the Japanese to survive here and make their way into the quarterfinals as a surprise entry.

ironchef69 · 06-28-10, 11:07 PM

Already on Japan +285 Lets get it tomorrow

CatPulp · 06-29-10, 01:49 AM

Your opinions are convincingly laid out. OK, I'm sold. Japan it is @ 4.0. Thanks EP!

DeluxeLiner · 06-29-10, 02:55 AM

Good write up on Japan. If I can get a good price I am thinking about taking it.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-29-10, 09:55 AM

Still have a feeling Japan sneaks in 1-0 perhaps, but sprinkling a little on the "To Advance" line at +131 now just in case because the draw still is glaring us in the face.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-29-10, 11:43 AM

Tough loss. One missed PK by Japan sealed their fate. Was a good ride, but not a winning one.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-29-10, 12:01 PM

Spain +108
Was waiting for the right time to get this price, now seems as good as any. I just can't side with a team in Portugal that has not proven it can score against quality competition. I know there's a lot of sentiment for another match here that ends in a draw, but I don't see it. I do believe someone will win this in 90 minutes + injury time. Villa & company have begun to flex their offensive muscles and if they stay patient against a tough Portugal defense, I think they can use their superior passing skills to set up some opportunities. Will wait for lineups to officially get on this as I want to make sure Xabi Alonso is playing, which is what most of the information I have read indicates.

palmer · 06-29-10, 12:16 PM

Thanks for the analysis and insight.

DJ RM · 06-29-10, 12:22 PM

Lineups are out. Xabi, Xavi, Iniesta, Torres all starting. Let's go Spain!

EaglesPhan36 · 06-29-10, 12:29 PM

On it.

Retibol · 06-29-10, 01:07 PM

Okey lets take a lil stab on Spain!

EaglesPhan36 · 06-29-10, 03:23 PM

Wheewwwwww! Spain looked a little shaky there at the end, but they prevail. Viva Villa!

CatPulp · 06-29-10, 03:27 PM

Goal!!!!

EaglesPhan36 · 06-30-10, 02:59 PM

Finishing the homework on tomorrow's matches, seeing one play with which I want to unleash the fury of a massive play on because I can't quite believe where the line is and I want to make the bookies pay out the ass for it. Waiting a bit to get organized before booking it.

palmer · 06-30-10, 08:30 PM

looking forward to your insight

EaglesPhan36 · 06-30-10, 09:37 PM

BRAZIL-NETHERLANDS OVER 2 [-145]

Bloggerific.

Brazil and The Netherlands squared off in a 3-2 thriller at the '94 World Cup with the Samba Stars advancing. Is another shootout in store for the pair on Friday?

It's a tasty World Cup matchup in the quarterfinals as an unbeaten Dutch side looks to take out the South American giants, Brazil.

Brazil brings the better pedigree and World Cup history with 19 appearances at the World Cup and five championships. The Netherlands are in their ninth World Cup with no titles to show.

The Oranje will be looking to book a second semifinal appearance, having finished fourth back in 1998. Brazil will make its 11th appearance in the semifinals with a win.

Both teams were nothing short of brilliant in their Round of 16 matches. Brazil was particularly devastating with a 3-0 demolition of Chile. The Brazilians were patient through the first 34 minutes of the first half and then put together a perfect set piece off a corner from the foot of Maicon to the head of Juan for their first goal.
The Brazilians would then use the flair most are used to seeing from their side in scoring their second goal, a neat little two-man breakdown on the Chilean goal with Kaka flipping the ball forward to Luis Fabiano, who would find the back of the net. Robinho would add a second half goal for good measure.

The Netherlands were glad to welcome back striker Arjen Robben from injury concerns to start their Round of 16 match with Slovakia. Robben was just as excited as he used a perfect pass from Wesley Sneijder to blast a left-footed ball into the net at the 18th minute. Sneijder would add a goal himself that gave the Dutch all they needed for the 2-1 win.

While this is certain to be the biggest test of the World Cup for the Oranje, Brazil has already knocked heads with Portugal in the group stages and will fear nothing in this match. The Dutch will need to find a balance between defending the free flowing Brazilian attack and seeking their own offense.

Robinho, Kaka and Luis Fabiano have all been lethal up front for Brazil in South Africa. The thing that makes Brazil even tougher is when the defensive backs, specifically Maicon, join the attack and help set the table with an attacking presence on the wing. The Dutch must do a solid job of not letting these extra attackers get free looks to set up crosses into the box.

On the other side, Brazil will be tested by the Dutch attack that features precision passing and deadly striking ability. Robben looked right at home returning from a hamstring issue and Robin Van Persie also looked close to 100 percent. Wesley Sneijder has been a key in setting up the Dutch offense and he'll need to be precise with everything he does.

Defensively, the Dutch showed some troubling holes against Slovakia in the last round. Against Brazil, these holes won't result in just the single goal that Slovakia put up. Brazil has shown plenty of patience in forming their attack and they will exploit any mistakes made by the Dutch side.

Brazil is the soccer betting favorite for this match at -104 with The Netherlands listed as underdogs at +353.
On the World Cup betting handicap, The Netherlands are available at +0.5 at -110. The draw is available at +242. The total is set at 2.5, heavily favoring the 'under' at -135.

Remember these lines at most every book cover you just for the 90 minutes plus injury time. The Netherlands "to advance" is listed at +184, while Brazil "to advance" is at -224. These options, of course, will cover you for the entire match, including any extra time or penalty kicks.

At the end of the day, it is hard to look past Brazil in this match. Their coach, Dunga, has brought a solid business-like approach to the flair of this team. Together, it has formed what looks like the best soccer team in this field. The combination of offense, defense and goal keeping is unmatched at this point.

The Netherlands will keep this match interesting at least through the first 45 minutes, but look for a patient Brazil to earn a trip to the semifinals.

CatPulp · 06-30-10, 10:22 PM

Hmmm, my book has under 2 @ -145 and the over is at +125. So I'm somewhat confused, which one should I go with?

EaglesPhan36 · 06-30-10, 11:14 PM

You sure that isn't 2.5? I haven't seen any books that have 2 at plus money. In any case, I just lay out what I see. Your call. For me, I just don't see how this one is going to end with no goals or a single goal. Both teams to me are capable of scoring two by themselves. Worst case to me is a push on the total of 2.

CatPulp · 07-01-10, 08:05 AM

Yup, just checked. It's still at 2. But now the under is @ +125 and the over is at -145. I should have jumped on it when the two numbers were switched. Damn!!

EaglesPhan36 · 07-01-10, 08:23 AM

They must have had the lines posted incorrectly. In any case, let's go goals! And Brazil!

CatPulp · 07-01-10, 01:22 PM

Yeah, I'm thinking Brazil moneyline too, but I didn't see you make that as an official opinion like the Over 2.

vinnysantos · 07-02-10, 04:13 AM

Good luck to everyone on the Brazil bandwagon

AsRequested · 07-02-10, 05:31 AM

Im on brazil and the over 2 as well, gl to all of us

EaglesPhan36 · 07-02-10, 10:52 AM

Well lost the Brazil futures, but the single play on the total today more than made up for it because I did go bigger on it than anything else I had done in the World Cup so far.

Brazil will be kicking themselves for their horrible defense on that first set piece. Second Dutch goal was just a sweet bounce from head to head.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-02-10, 12:30 PM

URUGUAY-GHANA OVER 2 [-116]
This isn't quite as strong a play as the Brazil-Netherlands match from earlier, but I once again think that these two goal totals for the most part have favored taking a chance on the over. Let's start with offense. Uruguay has the obvious advantage here with the dynamic duo of Diego Forlan & Luis Suarez. Suarez in particular has been steaming hot in the last two matches. You might expect Ghana to mark him more, but if they do, then Forlan gets more openings. Pick your poison, but the poison is likely going to get you. Defender Jonathan Mensah is also out due to yellow cards accumulated. Uruguay will be missing Diego Godin along their backline which has been so steady during the tournament. Even though Victorino stepped in as a capable sub against South Korea, now he's being asked to be a 90 minute player. Even slight changes to a solid unit could throw off some of the continuity and let Asamoah Gyan aka Baby Jet and the rest of the Ghanans have some hope offensively. Kevin Prince-Boateng won his race for fitness which should help the attack that features speed & power. The other thing that could make the OVER interesting is the overall youth of Ghana. One never knows how youth will respond to adversity, say Uruguay scoring early or even having a lead themselves and having to ward off a heavy Uruguay attack. Taking the total at 2 also gives you the opportunity at half time to hedge and get back some money if the match looks like it is heading under or has featured a listless pace. Two things are important to me to find goal in this one. #1, Uruguay cannot be complacent when/if they score. They fell into that trap against South Korea and it nearly cost them. I think they have to stay steady in attack all match long. #2, Ghana's strategy. Most have praised them as a well organized defensive side, but they also have not faced the talent they'll see in Forlan & Suarez today. I think Ghana has to be careful as well not to trust try and set up shop in front of their own goal. If they look for the right moments to attack, this match should be entertaining. If not, get your hedge on at the half.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-02-10, 02:18 PM

Definitely gonna hedge on one of the under lines at the half. Some quality chances in the 1st half, but asking for 3 goals to win in one half is a lot and the longer the match goes without a goal, the more likely they start playing safe for extra time.