Never mind! That late goal changes the complexion of the 2nd half. Uruguay has to attack, attack, attack. Should shape up somewhat like the Brazil-Netherlands match in that fashion where Ghana will have some chances to as Uruguay opens up more.
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ARGENTINA-GERMANY OVER 2.5 [+104]
Not going to over pay the chalk on the total of 2 because I think this one is going to get at least three goals. Argentina has been remarkably consistent on offense throughout the tournament and they seem to be getting better with 9 goals now in their last 3 matches. Germany certainly has a solid defensive unit, but England showed some chinks in the armor of the Germans with several solid opportunities and what should have been at least two goals. Higuan, Tevez and Messi should get their shots and something tells me that it's time for Messi to be the hero. Germany should also find some good looks against Argentina as their attack has been equally impressive. Mueller, Klose & Podolski should all find some room against an Argentina side that has conceded to the two best sides it faced in Mexico & South Korea. Argentina may get defender Walter Samuel back for this one, but he's still in doubt with injury concerns. Remember, Argentina's defense was viewed as the achilles heel of this squad when the World Cup began. This will be their biggest test. Both teams are fully capable of putting up multiple goals in this one and I expect this to be the highest scoring of the quarterfinal matches.
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Germany's carving up the Argentine D like a hot knife through butter. Impressive Germans. Poor Argies.
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I followed your route and not pick a side. All the teams that we thought were the best have fallen like dominos. Congrat on the over. From your experience, do teams play more offensively or more defensively in the semi?Comment -
It's all about match-ups although logic might dictate that some sides would play a little safer and lead to a lower scoring match. Uruguay without Suarez is going to be an interesting team to watch against the Netherlands. They may revert to more defensive tactics to start whereas with him, I would have expected an entertaining match with good offensive flow.Comment -
FERNANDO TORRES TO SCORE +151
Much has been made about Torres' failure to add much to the Spanish attack. He has taken plenty of shots in the tournament, but only put two on goal with zero goals to show for it. He was subbed out in the 58th minute against Portugal which raised eyes as to whether or not he'd be in the Starting 11 today. He is. His coach and his teammates have all come out in support of El Nino. Villa is going to continue to be a key mark for the opposition. Look for Torres to get his chances again today and something tells me with all the pressure Spain will put on the South Americans, perhaps a lucky bounce gets Torres going.
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Good luck. Went from +151 to +196 in the last ten minutes.Comment -
Good luck Sir. Taking my chance with the over again.Comment -
E.P thank you.Comment -
Blah. Can't believe Torres got subbed out again. He wasn't poor today, but Spain didn't present many chances while he was in there. Thought Fabregas was gonna come on for one of the midfielders.Comment -
URUGUAY +0.5/+1 [-110]
Here's my blog on today's semifinal from SBR's World Cup coverage. You'll see my pick is Netherlands ML, but also that the draw is the best value for this match. The Dutch may very well win, but I don't think they're going to blow Uruguay out. I'm going to wait to see the lineups for Uruguay because I believe they need to have either Diego Lugano or Diego Godin in their defensive unit for cohesiveness. It appears Lugano is going to give it a go, but Godin is still in doubt. Will check back in before match time.
The Dutch have the momentum following their upset of Brazil coupled with the Uruguay side missing its strongest player for Tuesday's semifinal contest.
"The Hand of God" helped save Uruguay's World Cup against Ghana. Now, the Uruguayans will look to book a spot in the World Cup final without Luis Suarez' services.
The Uruguayan striker will long be remembered for his hand ball at the end of extra time against Ghana. Uruguay looked as if they were going to lose via an agonizing last second goal when Suarez' quick thinking resulted in the most talked about play of this World Cup.
Lost in the shuffle was the superb stopping of Uruguay goalie Fernando Muslera. He stopped two shots from Ghana in the shootout to help Uruguay book its semifinal appearance at the World Cup.
The Netherlands' trip to the semifinals had its own drama as the Oranje went up against the much ballyhooed Brazil. An early goal for the Brazilians looked as if it would put the Dutch dream in South Africa to bed early. Credit to the Dutch however. as they steadied their ship and regrouped at the half.
The Oranje would equalize early in the second half when Brazilian goalie Julio Cesar and defender Felipe Melo got tangled up, allowing Wesley Sneijder's cross to bang in for a goal. The Dutch would book their trip to the semis when Sneijder headed in the second goal 15 minutes later.
That brings us to the first semifinal in South Africa. For Uruguay, it must come up with a game plan without Suarez.
Suarez and Diego Forlan had formed perhaps the best duo of strikers in South Africa. Now, coach Oscar Tabarez is charged with replacing Suarez' soccer scoring prowess as he tangles with the Dutch.
He could turn to veteran forward Sebastian Abreu who has been used mainly as a late substitute for his height advantage. Abreu's inclusion would give the Uruguayan attack a different look and provide a target for Forlan's deadly accurate crosses and free kicks.
Regardless of who is selected to the starting lineup to replace Suarez, I expect Uruguay to adopt a little more of a defense first approach against the attack of the Netherlands. The Dutch possess great quality up front with Arjen Robben, Wesley Sneijder and Robin Van Persie leading the attack.
The Dutch started slow in the 1st half against Brazil, but seemingly realized what needed to change at half time. More touches for Sneijder. Don't look for that to change against Uruguay. Sneijder has been the Oranje's best player in South Africa and chances are if they are to advance to the final, he'll have his fingerprints all over this match. Goal keeper Maarten Stekelenburg has been an unsung hero for the Dutch. Keep an eye on his activity.
From a suspension and injury standpoint, The Netherlands will have to do without midfielder Nigel de Jong who picked up his second yellow card against Brazil. Gregory van der Wiel will also be out along the back line due to suspension.
Uruguay will hope that defender Diego Godin is fit to return against the Dutch, but they likely will be without Diego Lugano who suffered knee ligament damage in the victory against Ghana. Uruguay will also be without left back Jorge Fucile who picked up a second yellow card in their last match.
The Netherlands are the soccer betting favorite in this match at -146 on the money line and on the handicap at -1 for +135. Uruguay is a huge underdog at +552 and is available on the handicap at +0.5 for +128 or +1 at -155. The draw is listed at +266.
The total is set at 2, favoring the over at -125 right now. The Dutch are -305 to advance, which will include any extra time and penalty kicks. Uruguay is listed "to advance" at +258.
More troubling than Suarez being out for Uruguay are the injury and suspension problems for their back line. They will need a special performance from the fill-ins and their goal keeper to keep down a quality Dutch attack. Expect Uruguay to try and keep this match scoreless as long as possible. If they gain confidence with a scoreless first half, they'll hope that the Dutch tighten up and make am mistake.
It's not inconceivable that Uruguay could be in this match until very late, much like Paraguay did with Spain in the quarterfinals. However, the talent of the Oranje and the confidence they are carrying after beating Brazil will likely see them get through. If the Dutch get an early goal, they could roll.
BEST BET: Netherlands [-146]
BEST BANG FOR YOUR BUCK: Draw [+266]Comment -
SPAIN-GERMANY OVER 2 [-153]
These two goal totals really offer a tremendous opportunity on the over for the most part. This match-up will feature two contrasting styles. Spain will look to keep the tempo not exactly slow, but precise with their possession game. That to me will truly test this young German squad which has not had to deal with those tactics except for the Serbia match. Serbia though did not possess the precision of Spain. If the Germans get antsy and over extend themselves defensively, they will leave holes open that Spain can exploit. While on offense, this could also come into play if the Germans try to quicken the pace without thought, they could hand over the ball to Spain in dangerous territory. Conversely, if Germany is able to impose their pace on this match, we get a nice free flowing offensive match. By taking the over though, you leave yourself room to hedge at half time in the world of live betting. If the match is scoreless, then you can certainly hedge to cover your original wager. If there is one goal, then you can sit tight if the tempo is right and see how the 2nd half pans out. In either case, I think OVER is the way to go here. Lots of firepower on both sides and I think both are going to see goals in this one. I actually might prefer the line more if Spain goes with Fabregas in the starting eleven and goes with the five midfielders look. But even if Torres is in, this is where I want to be.
DAVID VILLA TO SCORE [+100]
Why wouldn't you take a shot? If Spain is going to advance, they will need to score and David Villa has been their offense to this point in the World Cup. Regardless of whether or not Fernando Torres is along his side, Villa should have opportunities against the German defense.
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Good Luck.Comment -
good luck EP...Comment -
Good luck EPComment -
nice write-up per usual, EP. dig the over a lot today, and plan to hammer it some more in live betting 15 minutes in (assuming no goal has been scored, of course). completely agree re: Torres vs Fabregas with respect to sides. BOL today.Comment -
I think it's probably going to be Torres starting again because of Fabregas' injury. I'm guessing Del Bosque will use about the same strategy as the last two matches and that is to sub in Fabregas early in the 2nd half if Torres is ineffective again. I still might be in the minority on Torres as I don't think he's been completely awful. I just think his confidence is low and Spain really hasn't given him that many chances since the first match or two when he had several chances, but missed them.
In any case, will wait for the lineups to see. The price on the Over 2 is drifting down a little this morning to -147 which is fine by me. As long as it's in the area of -150, I'll keep it.Comment -
My book only offer 2.5. Needless today it's not for soccer. I think this game might end in 1-1 draw. Over 2 is probably the best play on the board.Comment -
Yeah as I said I'd rather lay the chalk on the total at 2 than take the plus odds at 2.5. Just safer in the long run despite paying more to start because a push often is your worst result.Comment -
Villa odds to score up to +130. Gonna continue to sit and wait on these lines.Comment -
agree, if Fabregas 100%, might be a different story. Del Bosque is stubborn, but i'm also with you in that i don't think Torres has been as much a victim of bad service as poor form or injury. i already have 3u on the over 2', may add some on over 2 and pay the juice [no juice on a push, as they say]. in any event, going to be hard to lay off live betting the over if play is open and no one scores first 15 minutes.Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
i'm struggling to understand why so many on the boards like Spain and the under today, but guess i have to remind myself that everyone chimes in on a game like this. or maybe it's the octopus and/or the line movement. in any event, no way would i risk a dime on Spain or the under given what i've seen thusfar. i'm no expert soccer capper, but i have a good feeling for who is, and it seems that those who are calling for Spain or the under are predicting previous form to change significantly, and Mueller's absence or a Torres/Fabregas change would seem to be the only factors indicating such. Mueller's absence is my main concern if i back Germany.Comment -
I think its due to Spain playing such a different style than every one else. No one plays the possession game like Spain. But like I said, for me, that doesn't necessarily mean that scoring won't happen because of it and frankly, they didn't do a good job of it in the 1st half against Paraguay. I think it tests the mental patience of Germany and having not had to play anyone who does what Spain does, the Germans could break down defensively over the course of the match due to their impatience since they are so used to getting out to a quick start for the most part. From a side standpoint, it's a toss up and my original finals pick was Brazil-Spain I think, so I side slightly with Spain just because that was my gut feeling when the World Cup started. I don't think Germany is a bad pick, but I think some of the reasons some people might be on them [strictly the number of goals scored] is poor.Comment -
well-put. i agree that liking Germany solely based upon goal scoring recently is not solid reasoning, if only because many of those goals have come late (and when ENG and ARG had been opened up), and stylistically, as you point out, Spain's style may leave Germany fatigued and vulnerable late when they've been doing most of their damage in the WC. the more i think about it, the more i feel as if i'm just going to lay off of the sides and play the over, particularly with Mueller out and the line movement favoring Spain. two of my good friends are way into soccer capping, and one likes Spain, the other Germany, so i think i'll just enjoy watching the match with them butting heads and root for goals from either side.
BOL to you and thanks for sharing your insight. you may have just saved me from a bad result on Germany PK. maybe that money is better placed on the David Villa prop (curious that it's -125 at Greek but +130 at 5D...).Comment -
Really? That's a big difference on Villa. Huh. I was surprised if went up from +100 at 5Dimes.Comment -
yes, i just double-checked. the only possible difference would be if extra time goals count at Greek [5D explicitly says they do not, whereas placement of wording at Greek makes it a little vague, but i seriously doubt Greek counts props during extra time]. imho, i tend to think that Greek has sharpest lines when it comes to these things, and Villa is the only player requiring bettor to pay juice on goal-scoring prop [next most expensive are Torres +150 (lunacy, i say), Klose + 175, Llorente +175 compared to +250, +190 and +575 respectively at 5D]. to me, this says that Greek generally prices this more expensively, but also that they really don't want action on the Villa prop. also thinking about the corner prop.Originally posted by EaglesPhan36Comment -
mine is 2 1/2 as well.Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
can get over 1 1/2 @ -260 .?.?.?.?Comment -
Eeesh. -260 is a big chunk. I'd only do it if you have live betting available where you can make a hedge play on it in case there is little scoring at the half. Even then, my cut off is about -170 on the 2 totals personally.Comment -
Pedro in for TorresComment -
Noted. I like including his youth in here. He's a solid player. Also gives them nice subbing options in the 2nd half with Fabregas and Torres if needed.Comment -
Definitely looking like a half time hedge here with no score. The pace has been alright, but not enough chances and I wouldn't think as the match goes that it's going to get more open, but rather likely much tighter.Comment -
Should have been a pen to Germany right before ht.Comment -
UNDER 1.5/1 [-122]
If it completely loses, then that means the original one either won or pushed and that'd be okay. Otherwise, it should at least win for half stakes or full if no one scores.Comment -
Trying the scoring props again, hoping to split and net a profit.
VILLA TO SCORE +131
ROBBEN TO SCORE +348
Other play for the Final is:
TOTAL CORNER KICKS OVER 9.5 [-137]Comment -
Any thoughts on a side?Comment -
good picks, using sense on teh goalscorers.Comment
