EP36's FIFA-Fo-Fum World Cup Wonderland

[cmh329]

Anyone like Slovakia -1 tomorrow?

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #7: Slovakia-New Zealand OVER 2/2.5 [+100]
Stuck in the same grouping as Italy & Paraguay, Slovakia fancies itself a shot to advance and if that is the case, they must take the full three points from the Kiwis of New Zealand in this one. Slovakia is expected to be on the attack against New Zealand and despite a lack of "names" - they should feel confident they can score on this squad. New Zealand has given up multiple goals in three of their last four matches in prep for the World Cup. The Kiwis have also found the back of the net in three straight. New Zealand will likely adopt the approach that many of the minnows in the World Cup have done by parking as many men as possible in the box to try to protect their goal and earn a point with a draw. They also may feel the need to do that with their top goal keeper out of action for this match. I think a key here would be for Slovakia to get a goal in the 1st half. If they do, New Zealand will definitely look for that equalizer as moral victories of low scoring losses won't do anything for this club.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #8: Brazil To Advance To Semifinals [+113]
Adding this play.

[vinnysantos]

Good luck EP

[phillip]

Good Luck I like it. Think It's time for a high scoring game this World Cup.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 3-1-1 [+2.42]

Thanks to New Zealand, only a half stakes loss on that as the total fell at two goals.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #9: Chile-Honduras Total Corner Kicks OVER 9.5 [-123]
Corners are a bit of a crapshoot and books from what I have tracked here during the opening round of the group stages have pretty lazily set most matches at 9.5. For me, corners are a product of aggressive offense and/or a team that tries to park the bus in the box and defend their asses off without much attention paid to their own attack. Chile certainly should foot the bill as an offensive minded squad here as they favor an aggressive 3-3-1-3 formation. That should lead to additional midfielders joining the attack of the forwards to provide plenty of pressure on Honduras' questionable back line. Chile could have their best striker Humberto Suazo back in action as he recovers from a hamstring injury, but possess plenty of other options in attack if he cannot go or comes off the bench. Honduras in their own right could be missing David Suazo, their leading scorer in Cup qualifying. Look for Chile to provide the majority of the offensive opportunities and so long as they keep the pressure up, I'll press the crapshoot button on the over here. Crap it up.

[Smogs]

I like this bet ep, it stays away from the 1x2 market which is killing punters so far. I might tail

[vinnysantos]

I dont have that bet option that sux

[EaglesPhan36]

This one is gonna hurt. 7 corners at the half, only two in the 2nd half. Sheesh.

[Sforz]

Yep...

[EaglesPhan36]

YES! Got it by a pube hair!

[Sforz]

I had 10.. take the push.

[hedgejob]

Lucky boy

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 4-1-1 [+3.42]

Man shit like that makes books look real smart for setting that prop at 10.

[Ruff]

YES! Got it by a pube hair!

NICE EP
I tailed ya got 9.5 5x
thanks EP

[EaglesPhan36]

Corner Kicks Stats From Match #1

16 matches

*Bold team had most corners in the match*
South Africa-Mexico 9
Uruguay-France 4
South Korea-Greece 17
Argentina-Nigeria 14
England-USA 12
Algeria-Slovenia 7
Serbia-Ghana 8
Germany-Australia 11
Netherlands-Denmark 8
Japan-Cameroon 3
Italy-Paraguay 12
New Zealand-Slovakia 13
Ivory Coast-Portugal 10
Brazil-North Korea 10
Chile-Honduras 10
Spain-Switzerland 15

10 of 16 would have gone OVER on corner kick at 9.5 props. If you look at the majority of teams who had more corners in these games, they either #1 generally have what is considered a good attack or #2, were playing from behind [Greece/Australia]. Corner kicks are still a bit of dumb luck IMO when you come down to it because of the bounce of the ball, but this is a prop I was very interested in following.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #10: Uruguay-South Africa Total Corner Kicks OVER 9.5 [-111]
Again realize that some corner kicks are just the result of dumb luck and not necessarily any set factors. The chalk here indicates the books don't expect a lot of corners unlike the Spain match which at my book was up to almost -160 on the 9.5 prop. Certainly Uruguay did not give us anything to show they would get many corners today as they sat back and defended the majority of the time vs. France. I expect a different Uruguayan team today with more on the attack from Forlan and Suarez. As I stated last time for this prop, I believe offensively aggressive teams do help produce more corners especially against teams who might sit back and defend against that tactic. South Africa may not totally fit that mold today, but I think they have to be weary of Uruguay's striking duo today. South Africa created a handful of corners against Mexico and although Uruguay did defend well against France, their defense is still not as solid as some others in this year's World Cup. If Uruguay attacks, that may also leave RSA to get more opportunities to counter somewhat which can also potentially help this prop. Take it for what it's worth and wager accordingly.

[JOHON8]

Interesting analysis, I think the cards prop is a good one too this WC especially when teams are willing to sacrifice a lot to keep the favorites tight. where did you get these corner stats? or did you just put it together yourself...?

[EaglesPhan36]

Went back through Flashscore.com and got them off there, so those are the official corner stats. Today is another example of why I say corners are definitely dumb luck involved. Three halves for Uruguay now and they have zero corners, that's pretty unbelievable. We'll see what happens in the 2nd half. The Spain-Switzerland game was comfortably under at 3 corners at the half and I think there were 12 in the second half.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 4W-2L-1P [+2.32]

Even though the corners prop misses, the Uruguay win really helps. A draw against Mexico will likely get the job done as far as qualifying Uruguay and cashing Play #1.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #11: France PK/-0.5 [-101]
The French may have left fans of Les Bleus feeling blue after their opening match draw to Uruguay, but I think they get a better shot here against Mexico. I see a lot of people giving the Mexican props for "holding their own" in the opener against South Africa by getting a draw. However, after seeing Uruguay pick South Africa apart - one has to wonder just how good this Mexican team is? They definitely have the attack to pressure France, but defensively is where I think France may win this match. The back line anchored by Gallas and Abidal should be better at shutting off the attack than Mexico's back line will be against France. Yes, France does need to generate more offense and I think they will look to start off that way. That means Ribery has to use his speed and skill and I think something tells me that Mr.Handball, Thierry Henry, is going to have much more to do with the French attack than coming on as a late sub again. With Uruguay picking up all three points against South Africa, this match is huge for both these teams as the loser will be in big trouble as far as advancing. I think the French push for all three here, knowing that they would likely just need a draw against South Africa to secure a spot in the knockout stages. Taking the conservative approach just in case the French find a way to screw themselves into a draw.

[Smogs]

I don't want to jinx you because i'm on a rotten run but i blogged for sbr the France win in this game.

I think they match up really well against Mexico

[EaglesPhan36]

No worries. I think a lot of people underestimated how good Uruguay was, so even though France may not have looked great in that match, getting a point from it was not something to be ashamed of and as we saw with Uruguay today, a change in tactics can do wonders for your team if you go for the win. I expect France to definitely show more on the attack tomorrow.

[EaglesPhan36]

Chalk is high on the OVER 9.5 corners for both the early matches Thursday. Around -145. Like the Argentina-South Korea best. Argentina had a solid amount of corners due to their attacking style and South Korea got a decent amount too and gave up a boatload to a Greek team that isn't reknowned for their offense.

[phenomenon]

u are good pal .. congrs..

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #12: Argentina-South Korea OVER 2 [-143]
I think as the competition continues, you won't ever have a chance for this sort of chalk on a low total of two with Argentina involved. After their narrow 1-0 win over Nigeria and a mostly low scoring 1st round of matches, books seem hell bent that trend is going to continue. Argentina may have scored just once, but they dominated possession against Nigeria and against a lesser goal keeper may have had an additional goal or two. South Korea may opt to play a more defensive style against Argentina after playing a pretty solid offensive attack against Greece. The Koreans didn't fear the Greek attack, but they will certainly try their best to clog the box on the Argentines. I don't think the South Koreans will be totally without attack in this one though as their speed can create some issues against an Argentina defense that still has its issues. Park ji-Sung was solid against the Greeks and look for him to spearhead any chances that South Korea gets. Without a doubt I think Argentina gets on the board with a score here and always is a threat to net multiple goals. The South Koreans showed that they are no slouches either. I expect a minimum of two goals here. Anything less would be uncivilized.

[beefcake]

I like the play Ep! GL

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 5W-2L-1P [+3.32]

That's how we like our OVERs, done EZ.

[Mr.Kitty]

Nice win , I played it safe and took over 1.5 .

[SRBI]

Congrats on the winner EP! I liked the over but didn't have the balls to play it. Continued success to you sir

[blanc0]

Nice win , I played it safe and took over 1.5 .

i went the other way & took over 2.5

also arg -1.5

$$

[EaglesPhan36]

Good deal. Everyone wins!

[Smogs]

I didn't see anyone on Korea +1 on here so looks like we got some back off the books

[ironchef69]

good call on tina over, keep rolling eagle