Mihaita666's thread

[OperatorX]

Happy new year Mihaita and good luck with exams, it seems I missed some great picks while spending time with family and friends! Keep up the good work!

[mihaita666]

thanks dude, happy new year to you and your family too

[mihaita666]

wrote some articles for the sbr blogs, i'll post'em quickly

[mihaita666]

Stoke - Fulham
stoke DNB @ 1.88 (pinnacle) / over 2.00 @ 1.76 (bet365)


On ematch left to play from a few weeks ago, today, in Premiership. Two different teams, with two different goals in this end of the season. Stoke City, the home team, has big problems with the relegation, as they are very close to the 18th place. Stoke has only 21 points in 19 matches, while Bolton is 3 points behind, but they also have one match less. Fulham, on the other hand, is in a safe position, 9th, away from the red zone of the table. They have 27 points so far, and 19 matches, and are actually closer to the European Competitions area than from the 18th place.
Fulham and Stoke played matches in the 3rd round of the FA Cuo last weekend and they've both won those matches, qualifying for the next round. Stoke easily won against modest York City, 3-1, while Fulham has some problems against another inferior division team, Swidon Town (both Stoke and Fulham had the home ground advantage).
Now, coming back to this match, Fulham might look a solid pick, as they are the better team, if we take a look at the current table. However, if we take a closer look at the table, we can see something that sustains my first pick. Fulham has won most of their points on Craven Cottage, their home arena : at home, they have won 75% of their overall points, 20, while on road, Fulham only has one victory, and 4 draws, 7 points, only 25% of their total amount of points. Stoke is in a very similar situation : they've won 67% of their points so far at home.
For the second pick, I'll say that the odd is very big for a Premiership game, especially one from this very high scoring one. A very likely outcome for me would be Stoke - Fulham 2-1.

[mihaita666]

Blackburn Rovers - Aston Villa
Aston Villa DNB @ 1.81 (pinnacle)


The other match I'll talk about tonight is one from the English League Cup, also known as the Carling Cup, so you guys don't make a confusion here, thinking its a match from Premiership. This is the stage of the semifinals, and the first leg is played in Blackburn. A few days ago, these teams played their first match outside Premiership, in the FA Cup, on Villa Park, and the Birmingham team won 3-1, after dominating the entire match.
The Carling Cup is, now, the shortest path for Aston Villa to the Europa League, which seems a more realistic objective for them in this moment. They only have to eliminate Blackburn Rovers as in the final they will meet eighter Manchester United or Manchester City, who are playing of course in the other seminfinal. Since both Man Utd and Man City will surely "catch" one of the first 6 places, Aston Villa only has to play the final in order to be ensured of the participation in the next season's Uefa Europa League. So far, Aston Villa has eliminated these teams in the Carling Cup : Cardiff City, Sunderland an Portsmouth, while Blackburn Rovers said goodbye to :Gilingham, Nottingham Forest, Petersborough United and Chelsea.
Blackburn is the group of 10 teams that will fight for surviving in the Premiership for the next season, and they are one of the favorites to achieve this goal. Aston Villa, on the other hand, is in the 7 teams group that fight for European faim and glory in the next season. If we wonder what;s the 3rd group going to fight for, the answer is for nothing, as they, in my oppinion, will have no chance for european competitions, and for several reasons, will not relegate. These teams will be interesting to watch in the next matches, but I'm going to talk about this in other blogs.
Blackburn has a negative record in the last 10 matches against Villa; Aston Villa won 7 matches, 1 ended draw while Blackburn was succesful in only 2 games, since 2005. Therefore, since the statistics is on my side, once again, I'm going to take Villa DNB for an excellent odd of 1.81

[mihaita666]

thoughts, gentlemen ?

[Bostonknowledge]

I like the Villa pick. They had a poor run-in leading up to the FA cup this weekend. But, they were going up a hungry Arsenal squad and a Liverpool team with its back against the wall. Big Sam's team can't score to save their lives (Kalinic, Roberts, McCarthy, and Dos Santos) are useless at the moment. David Dunn is Blackburn's only scoring threat. Diouf sucks, and Morten Gamst has gotten old in a hurry. The speed and skill of Villa (Young, Gaby, Downing, Pertov, and Milner) is too much for blackburn and they can match Blackburn's physical style with Heskey, Carew and company. I think Villa takes this going away, and maintain their top 4 push.

[ji03]

I agree with both picks, but what do you think about a play on the draw for Aston Villa/ Blackburn match?

[jw]

Stoke - Fulham - I'm thinking of a small bet on the draw in this one ... could easily go either way - so the draw is the value play @ 3.30. I see 1-1 final score.... but good luck with your plays - because I won't be risking much at all.

[mihaita666]

thanks for your thoughts guys, i apreciate that.
It'd be funny to get 3 pushes tonight )

[avgalani]

I like the picks tonight man, good luck!

[Bostonknowledge]

Stoke has scored a grand total of 2 goals in their last 5 games. Shut out by Arsenal (A 2-0), Villa (A 1-0), Man city (A 2-0), Birmingham (H 1-0) and drew Wigan (H 2-2). Fulham will likely be missing their two best defenders in Hangeland (knee) and Pantsil (Knee and ANC). But that stoke offense is still anemic, 15 goals (worst in league) all year, and shut out in last 3 prem games. I find it hard for them to score 2 goals even without pantsil and hangeland. Chelsea only managed 2 against Fulham in their last game and that included a penalty. Also, fulham recently shut out Man United (albeit at home). I'm leaning towards a 1-1 draw or even a 0-0 draw on this one.

[mihaita666]

great start 1-0 stoke.

[mihaita666]

Stoke has scored a grand total of 2 goals in their last 5 games. . I find it hard for them to score 2 goals even without pantsil and hangeland. Chelsea only managed 2 against Fulham in their last game and that included a penalty. Also, fulham recently shut out Man United (albeit at home). I'm leaning towards a 1-1 draw or even a 0-0 draw on this one.

Say whaaaaaat ?

[OperatorX]

make that 2-0 great pick from the looks of it.. oh wait 3-0, you win congrats!!

[mihaita666]

anyone tailed ?

[OperatorX]

but of course I did.

[mihaita666]

besides you ; ? btw, never mess with a back against the wall premiership team, especially if you're self-suficient. Smogs can confirm (im talking about boro 4 years ago, i think, in uefa cup)

[OperatorX]

I just need porto to win now, for a fantastic day. Here lemme give you some points.. I won some tournament and don't know what to do with them

[SRBI]

Congrats Mihaita! Nice pick man, cash money in the first half you gotta love that!

[mihaita666]

hehe, i love, i simply adore those matches in which i bet an over and i don't have to wait till the 80 minute to get it. We have an expression here that tells about how you feel in that situation : you feel like you have a carrot in your a$$. (excuse me, im euphoric)

[OperatorX]

Nice goal by porto before the half! All the other games in england seem to be getting postponed, they have snow storms over there or something? Mihaita im going to Vegas for the first 3 days of the world cup.. might need your help around then. I just put 1 dollar on North Korea with the odds being +150000 to win it outright heh heh.

[mihaita666]

you better bet a team that didn't qualify, they have greater chances )

[mihaita666]

2-0-1, great day...cheers you all, guys

[mihaita666]

since tomorrow i have 9 hours of schol (yuuuhuuu) i'll post my plays for tomorrow about now

[mihaita666]

Chievo - Inter Milano
Inter -0.5 @ 1.96 (5dimes)
10 matches in Italy Seria A today, the very first one is between Inter Milano and Chievo Verona. The current champion ended 2009 on the first place, 8 points clear from their city rivals AC Milan, but the rossonerri have a match left to play, so the difference between these two italian soccer giants could easily be 5 points. Jose mourinho, Inter's coach, surely told his team that they are 5 points away, altough untill Milan plays their remaining match, the difference stays 8 points. But mourinho knows best that the championship is long run, and every single match is very important now, especially in the second part of the season, when all the races are becoming more and more intense, the more we get close to the last days of the championship. Inter has done well so far on road, winning most of their matches, 5/8, only losing twice and ending one match undeceided. Inter has greats stats for them in away matches : 2.25 goals scored/match, 0.75 goals conceaded/match plus 3 clean-sheets.
Chievo isn't the team to fear on road matches; they have average statistics in these matches : 3 victories, 2 draws, 3 defeats. They have a modest attack, scoring 1.38 goals scored/match and allowing 1.25 goals/match from other teams. Overall, Chievo is 12th, especially thanks after their recently 3 victories streak. CVhievo is by definition a mid-table team, this year : they are far from the 18th place, the first one to relegate, and, altough they are only 3 points from the 6th place, last one that allows a team to participate in Uefa Europa League for the 2010-2011 season, Chievo hasn't got realistic chances to obtain that place at the end of the championship.
Inter has a good, a very good odd, and I'm not going to miss it. Let's go nerazzuri !!!

[mihaita666]

Caligari - AS Roma
AS Roma DNB @ 1.84 (5dimes)


Huge, absolutely huge odd for AS Roma on the moneyline in this match, and, altough i don't do this usually, I am afraid of that +163 odd. It's just to big. However, I will not at all say no to the one offered for the same beautiful team for the DNB.
AS Roma ended 2009 in big style : losing only 4 points from the last 21, Roma quickly got to the 4th position, which is a very likely to happen goal for them, at the end of this season (the 4th place, in Italy, allows a team to play the Uefa Champions League play-off). AS Roma has seriously strenghten their attack this winter by singing, on loan from FC Bayern unchen, Luca Toni, a world class striker, capable of scoring lots of goals and bring the victory for his team in the 90 minute.
Overall, Roma is 4th, with 28 points, only 2 points behind Juventus Turin. They have manage to end the year on this position after winning against AC Parma, 2-0, in the last match of the. The match was an obvious victory for the romans, as Totti and his team-mates managed to dominate the whole game from the very first minute to the very last one. The difference was obvious, as I've said, and I'm expecting Parma to screw things very soon (i think they don't deserve this place and that they are overrated).
Caligari is another team that looks like they will have nothing to fight for in the second part of the italian championship. They are 13th, far from the relegation zone, far from the european competitions zone. I think Roma should win easily, but that odd simply scares me, so I'm going to take the DNB, for a good odd, 1.84.

[mihaita666]

waiting your oppionions, ive seen that there are some italian football followers....

[Jimmy Proffett]

Mihaita, what's your thoughts on As Bari tomorrow @ 2.10? They face Udinese, and Udinese is playing without Di Natale (suspension). Udinese hasn't won on the road, Bari is 5-1 w/ 2 draws @ home.

[mihaita666]

i'd play bari -0.25 @ 1.8something. The stats are on bari, thats for sure, but u can never trust 100% them, it'd be too simple.

[rfr3sh]

since tomorrow i have 9 hours of schol (yuuuhuuu) i'll post my plays for tomorrow about now

hehe i dont have school till next week

[mihaita666]

yeah, 4 hours of informatics, 2 of molecular physics, and 3 of algebra, its the worst day of the week, hope ill come back from school and enjoy my winnings

[TurkzZ]

You in college or Uni Mihaita?

[paste_me]

hehe i dont have school till next week

i get 2 weeks!!!

[psulions]

I like the Inter pick. I'm going to put a little on them too. Good luck with your picks.