So much chances for turkey to score the 3th aswell. Unlucky, still minor profit today
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Yup at least the morning games came through
we'll get em tomorrow
dang just seen highlights they're showing like 4 Croatians running into the box early before the penalty but the ref didn't catch it ahhh, pretty weak penalty in the first place but still sucks he couldn't bury itComment -
besides that, it should of been retaken, because GK was like in midway between goal and ball , before ball got kicked, allowance is something like a yard...
best job in a world... behind a goal ref - sit and watch all games, never make a call and get paid pretty good for it.Comment -
Not sure yet, usually play TQ bets or PK/+0 instead of a reg time handicap. Wanting to go heavy on unders in knockout aswell but bookies will probably put the line on 1.75 or 2.00
New rules since this tournament, no 2nd man required so more people in position i guess. Doesn't rly give a penetrate tbh, gotta start the game somehow.Comment -
Yup at least the morning games came through
we'll get em tomorrow
dang just seen highlights they're showing like 4 Croatians running into the box early before the penalty but the ref didn't catch it ahhh, pretty weak penalty in the first place but still sucks he couldn't bury it
Whatever the ref did or didn't do is hardly relevant to the outcome of the game. I could argue it wasn't even a penalty. I could further argue that Croatia deserved a penalty 2 minutes before they conceded one that was actually given.
This wasn't a bad pick. A lot of people got buried in this match. Spain played with little urgency and Croatia's effort/motivation was exceptional. In terms of MMA, one of the fighters got complacent and, as a result, submitted in the last round. Were you shocked when McGregor got beat by Diaz? I was, and I lost money, but I loved every minute of that fight.
To me, this game could, on par with Italy/Belgium and England/Wales, be the most spectacular 90 minutes of football played this entire tournament. Croatia played a bunch of hungry youngsters who were cheeky, surprisingly well-organized, and looked tireless. They knew that a win would get them in a dream top half of the draw (they are now +700 to win it all. Italy, my favorite, is +1900), they believed and they overcame long odds to get it done.
I'm very, very envious of every Croatia fan, radical or not.
If you want to get someone to like European (real) football, this is the type of a game you show them. I'm sure people who lost money on Spain didn't even get upset (or as upset) because the show, quite frankly, was 10/10.Comment -
Yes, the bookies are on top of it. The two playoff games are on average 1.66 UNDER TWO goals.
I also just realized Italy can play an experimental squad today as they have already clinched first place in the group. Possbly an over?
And, before this experimental team wins 4-2, should I bet Italy to advance past Spain at 2.65? Italy has looked invincible so far and will play a disciplined game resulting in a 0-0 draw, and then possibly penalty shootout. Ramos vs Buffon... Who would you rather have in this situation? I'm not sure Spain should be a favorite, let alone a big one.Comment -
Kind of having a Deja Vu, 4 years ago i also believed italy could stop spain in the EU2012 final. Was 0-4. But if italy is 2.65+ i will surely bet on them. Huge value. Probably going to wait because i expect the public to still jump heavily on spain. Hope italy selects a B squad today and dissapoints then public will surely jump the Spaintrain. Think i'll place my bet after the match italy - ireland.Comment -
0-4 was the extreme. The first goal changes everything and if you are behind you start gambling - most teams aren't fitted for that. Croatia 2016 is an outstanding exception, and even they , I should say, did not START the game aiming for a 0-0 draw. So it's not a great comparison
If Italy scores first, in that final they win 2-0 or 3-0 just as easily.
Comparing teams from 2012 and 2016, how much has each team (Italy and Spain) improved or regressed? Do you think you could quantify it, as in: Italy 2016 is 105% of Italy 2012 but Spain 2016 is only 90% of Spain 2012?Comment -
Portugal -vs- Hungary
Over Under:+2.00
Under @ 2.11
1 unitComment -
Austria -vs- Iceland
Over Under:+2.00
Under @ 1.70
1 unitComment -
Aw feck, saw the start of both matches and looked like 3 teams defending a point. Then 2 goals lol, so now we got 2 teams defending a point and 2 teams attacking.Comment -
What's a good website to check lines for 2012? Italy/Spain played twice didn't they... was it more than 2.65?Comment -
Belgium -vs- Sweden
Asian Handicap:-0.50
Belgium @ 1.88
2 unitsComment -
Ok sorry to rant but this is getting penetrating ridiculous now...
england first game they draw on last minute goal
portugal miss penalty shot and draw vs iceland
england 25 shots 0 goals next game draw
iceland vs Austria draw... 1-1 I change channel to watch 30 seconds left in extra time Iceland drives the entire field and scores 2-1
those are my last big 4 plays I could be up $1200 but instead in the negative because of easy open net chances and goals in the last 30 seconds to 1 minute ...don't even know what to say anymore first it was laughable but now this is extremely suspect been betting years and never had so many bad breaks In a week or 2 span
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Boy was I wrong about Hungary (and earlier, Croatia) parking the bus.Comment -
Right there with ya buddy...Ok sorry to rant but this is getting penetrating ridiculous now...
england first game they draw on last minute goal
portugal miss penalty shot and draw vs iceland
england 25 shots 0 goals next game draw
iceland vs Austria draw... 1-1 I change channel to watch 30 seconds left in extra time Iceland drives the entire field and scores 2-1
those are my last big 4 plays I could be up $1200 but instead in the negative because of easy open net chances and goals in the last 30 seconds to 1 minute ...don't even know what to say anymore first it was laughable but now this is extremely suspect been betting years and never had so many bad breaks In a week or 2 spanComment -
Man glad somebody is feeling the pain with me , legitimately was concerned an ex girl got some African voodoo curse on me because I've never seen anything like this.... It's fine to lose bets but when they're 30 ⎌seconds away it stings even more
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Lets just hope that Belgium comes out to play and Ibra doesnt get froggy with some 94 minute 1-1 tie bullshit
That iceland goal stung when I was on the U2.5Comment -
Italy -vs- Republic of Ireland
First Half Over Under:+0.50
Under @ 2.02
1 unitComment -
Italy -vs- Republic of Ireland
Over Under:+0.50
Over @ 2.51
1 uComment -
what is suspect about it? You think they know what you bet and your $300 bet is what caused them to rig the game against you? Shit happens.. I can feel your pain for sure considering i had draw in italy and draw and ireland scores 85' to win 1-0, but to say its "suspect" because you have lost bets in shitty ways is a bit of an overreaction hahaOk sorry to rant but this is getting penetrating ridiculous now...
england first game they draw on last minute goal
portugal miss penalty shot and draw vs iceland
england 25 shots 0 goals next game draw
iceland vs Austria draw... 1-1 I change channel to watch 30 seconds left in extra time Iceland drives the entire field and scores 2-1
those are my last big 4 plays I could be up $1200 but instead in the negative because of easy open net chances and goals in the last 30 seconds to 1 minute ...don't even know what to say anymore first it was laughable but now this is extremely suspect been betting years and never had so many bad breaks In a week or 2 span
considering it was posted at 4:30 and the game started at 3, id say yes.Comment -
Yeah was live.
Made a homerun tonight boys, really happy with the end of the group stage. Going to calculate my total stats tomorrow. For now im going to have a look at the odds for knockouts sleep over it a night and place my toughts/bets tomorrow.
After tonight im hoping the public jumps spain so we can get more value out of italy TQComment -
Thoughts on this weekend's games?
I'm biased but I like Portugal over Croatia despite not playing up to their ability in the group stages. CR7 got the monkey off his back and Portugal are unlucky (again) not to win that outright with two of Hungary's 3 goal's being a result of deflections from Portuguese defenders ...
Only thing I don't like about the game is the 2 days off for Portugal before playing again ...Comment -
YTD AFTER GROUP STAGE
23 WINS
16 LOSSES
+9.51 UNITS (€2378)
Have been looking a lot at the knockout stages, slept over it and watches highlights of the matches teams already played and probably going to play some bets in a couple of hours.Comment -
Switzerland - Poland
Poland +0 (regular time EXCLUDING overtime
1.83
1 unit
When i pick a favourite i like to pick the +0 reg time because at overtime there's a big chance of penalties and here most qualities of the players go to waste and its more like a mental test/lottery.
Switzerland did not convince me against albania. Struggled for dear life against france and got lucky with a point. Were decent against romania.
Poland did the job against N ireland, were really good against germany, gave away almost no chance and created 2 100% chances, should've won that game. Did not take the game VS ukrain seriously due to already being placed. Players were already with their heads in the Knockouts i think.
Good value on poland
Wales - N Ireland
1st half Under 0.5
2.19
1 unit
Both a big suprise this euro. N Ireland showed they have a defence that is tough to crack. Were lucky against germany true but looked solid against Poland and Ukraine. Wales defying all odds so far, however they did this from the underdog perpsective. They were underdog in every match, against slovakia, england and even russia! They love the underdog position and can play strong counter with bale. This will not be the case against N ireland, i expect a very slow match where two teams will give each other the ball. Both teams won't rush things, they know there's a chance in the QF and that will be a huge achievement for both countries. The fear to lose will be greater than the will to win. I don't like the u 1.75 odd because if there is a goal, the other team will have to come, and just like the iceland game you can always get a all or nothing counter attack and concede a 90+4 goal to screw us. I like this line.
Portugal - Croatia
Croatia +0 (Regular time EXCLUDING overtime)
1.86
1 unit
Was portugal unlucky in front of goal first two matches? Yes they were. But luck is forced at some point. But nevermind the frong, look at the back. Im amazed how easy they give chances away. Midfield is also very dissapointing. Conceding 3 against hungary is a joke. Sure they scored 4 in the group league, but you will always create chances against teams of that stature (hungary, iceland and austria) Portugal did not convince me at all, showed me that they really are a 1 man army with a sloppy defence and undisciplined midfield.
Croatia however plays beautifull football. What is not to like about this team? They might die in beauty, but if they do then my bet will die with them. These odds should be more 1.60 / 2.30 from what i've seen. I think they've suprised me most out of all those 3 matches. Overal performance was great next to 20 minutes against czech republic.
France - Ireland
No bet that seems good to me here. Thinking about under 2 but don't like it. Handicap on france is -1.25 @ 2.11 so they are expecting france to win 1-0 atleast here. Ireland conceded 3 against belgium. Draw 1-1 against a colourless sweden. However they suck at scoring goals so over is also not a option here. Let me know what you guys think but for me a deffo no bet. France fieldplay has been improving this tournament but i'm not sure if they can pull the trigger with a 2-0+ yet. Huge pressure on home side from this knockout stage, any error is au revoir les blues.
Germany - Slovakia
Under 2.25 opened at 1.92 wich i would have taken, now it is at 1.83 so i will wait and hope for the odds to rise again. Simple reason is Germany isn't a goal scoring machine like usual this tournament yet. Slovakia knows it's a heavy underdog and will defend fiercely. They showed against england they can force a bit of luck and defend pretty good when in the underdog role. Think there's value to be made @ u 2.25 for 1.90+
Belgium - Hungary
Belgium - 0.75 (Full time exluding overtime)
1.83
2 units
Belgium has so much potential, they dont show it yet but they still won last match against sweden with a lot of threat. They did not make the right choices in the endpass, but if you see how many creativity they have and how much individual class i have to back them at this price. They have been my cashcow so far this season after the italy defeat and i hope they can do it again. Confidence grows with every match, especially after the opening disaster. And thats just what this team needs, confidence. They already have the class. With de bruyne, hazard lukaku, carrasco i can't see the belgiums not scoring here. Let's be honest, hungary's performance this tournament has already been amazing, but they have been struggling a lot. Got very lucky only to conceed 3 against portugal and it will probably be a 100 years again before they score 3 agains in 1 game against that type of team. Against iceland they put up a decent performance and got a late draw, against austria they won 2-0 but this was a total off day for austria, where they were a lot of internal strubbles. They finished last in a group with iceland and hungary. Think belgium is the biggest favourite this knockout stage with france.
Italy - Spain
Going to play italy to qualify but hoping the odds are going up because public will jump spain. Further analysis will follow.
Iceland - England
Same story as france - ireland, don't see any real value yet.
So i'm playing atleast 4/8 matches, most likely 6/8. I know this seems like a lot, and i usually don't do this for my domestic competition, but a tournament is a unique event, and bookies aren't as spot on as they are. I really feel like i can gain more money here. Let me know what you guys think about these bets!
Who is with me?!
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to me Croatia +0,5 is good play @-220Comment -
Like all of your plays except the Croatia and Portugal ....
Good luck in the knockout stages ...Comment -
Why risk 220 to win 1/2 unit if they go into extra time. If you think they win outright then pk -130 is the play and you push is they go into extra time.
Or you can take Croatia -140 to advance which includes extra time and penalties.
Laying -220 for pk, +.5 makes no sense to me ....Comment
