Ste's plays

[stemellor]

Really good info mate. HJK were the same price last season where they were unbeaten at home, but I suppose Inter T are also also struggling.
JJK (3.40) and KuPS (4.20) look too big (both away,) theres usually a lot of upsets - its a fun league to play if you are winning.

Thanks. Yeah, JJK off the back of a good result last week against MyPA and KuPS are pretty decent away from home. KuPS particularly looks a good price, just need to check if they had many away with international duty. From memory I don't think they had.

[stemellor]

Finland Veikkausliiga
Various leans on Finland this week. VPS initially looked amazing value at 3.2 away to bottom club Lahti. This is a no-play for me though as Lahti have just installed a new manager and this usually produces a positive result in the players. Lahti are also starting to get key players back from injury, so I'm really not sure what will happen in this game.

Honka also initially looked really good value away at TPS. However, Honka had a lot of players away with the Finland U21 squad for the 2 recent qualifiers, which puts me off.

The one game that really caught my eye though was HJK vs Inter:
The odds on HJK seem too skinny to me. They have been pretty bad at home this season and are top on their away form. Pressure is mounting on the coach as HJK should win this league easily.

It's fair to say that Inter don't have the best record against HJK. At HJK they have lost 17, drawn 4 and won 2.
However, HJK had asked for this game to be re-arranged because of the proximity to the 2 Finland international games. The request was denied, but HJK are clearly worried about this.
Forssell, Tainio, Sumusalo, Zeneli and Mannstrom were mainly unused substitutes, but Tainio played in the first game and was substituted. He didn't feature in the second game, so I wonder if he was injured? He is a key player for HJK. Demba Savage also travelled to Gambia on Saturday for their loss to Ivory Coast in WCQ.

Inter had 2 players with the Finland U21s, who are now back in training and Sirbiladze who played for Georgia at the weekend. Inter's coach has spoken of how much the break has helped his players after a busy period, something which a lot of the HJK players have not had. Inter are a good side, far better than 7th place suggests and they seemed to have really struggled with fatigue recently.

I'm taking Inter +0.5 @ 2.38 on Pinny. Risking 2u.

Fairly sure I can write this one off as a loss as HJK are 4-0 at HT! Down 2u today.

Overall record 50.5-48-4.5. +13.7 units.

[stemellor]

Sweden Superettan

14 June - Orebro vs Orgryte
Orebro are top of the league and playing excellent football. Orgryte have been badly beaten in the last 2 away games 5-1 and 4-1 and are struggling just outside the relegation playoff places.
Orebro have a full squad to choose from. The last H2H between the 2 teams was in 2009, so not relevant to this game.

Taken Orebro -1.5 @ 2.07 on 188bet. Risking 1u, due to the handicap.

17 June - GIF Sundsvall vs Assyriska
GIF off the back of a great away victory at Falkenberg and Assyriska struggling with form, particularly away from home. There are no reports of any injuries for GIF since the last game. GIF have a 6-1-1 record at home to Assyriska and the odds have some value to them still as I have them at around a 54% chance of winning.

Taken GIF @ 1.84 on Pinny. Risking 3u.

[stemellor]

16 June

Iceland - Fylkir vs Breidablik

Good odds on the away team here. Breidablik beat the bottom club in the last game 2-0 and I expect them to win again today against Fylkir, who are second bottom with 2 points and have lost all their home games so far this season. Playing this small though as that home record has to change shortly.
I have this as around a 50-55% chance for Breidablik to win, so have taken:

Breidablik @ 2.14 on Pinny. Risking 1u.

[bosigga]

Iceland - Fylkir vs Breidablik

Good odds on the away team here. Breidablik beat the bottom club in the last game 2-0 and I expect them to win again today against Fylkir, who are second bottom with 2 points and have lost all their home games so far this season. Playing this small though as that home record has to change shortly.
I have this as around a 50-55% chance for Breidablik to win, so have taken:

Breidablik @ 2.14 on Pinny. Risking 1u.

great call. we had to wait til the 81st but chalk it up

[stemellor]

great call. we had to wait til the 81st but chalk it up

No worries, glad you were on this as well

[stemellor]

17 June

Sweden Allsvenskan - IFK vs Djurdarden:
If you shop around You can get IFK at odds of 1.67 at the moment, which is quite good value. I like the BTTS here though. Recent games are pretty evenly spread between this winning and losing. IFK also have a good tendency towards winning to nil at home, which is why there are good odds.
IFK have announced that 2 regular defenders are out tonight (Waehler and Bjarsmyr) and Djurdarden are getting players back from injury now. I definitely think IFK will score and will likely win tonight and I think because of the change in defence that Djurgarden can nick a goal.

Taken BTTS @ 2.0 on Boylesports for 1u.
Norway Adeccoligaen - Elverum vs Sandefjord:
Sandefjord with the chance to go joint top tonight with a win away to bottom club Elverum. Jaiteh is back in midfield after missing the 1-1 draw in the last home game. Sandefjord have been better away this season winning 60% of their games. Elverum yet to win and have only picked up 2 draws. I think Sandefjord win this and hopefully comfortably.

Taken Sandefjord -1 @ 2.02 on Pinny. Risking 1u.

[stemellor]

Sweden Allsvenskan - IFK vs Djurdarden:
If you shop around You can get IFK at odds of 1.67 at the moment, which is quite good value. I like the BTTS here though. Recent games are pretty evenly spread between this winning and losing. IFK also have a good tendency towards winning to nil at home, which is why there are good odds.
IFK have announced that 2 regular defenders are out tonight (Waehler and Bjarsmyr) and Djurdarden are getting players back from injury now. I definitely think IFK will score and will likely win tonight and I think because of the change in defence that Djurgarden can nick a goal.

Taken BTTS @ 2.0 on Boylesports for 1u.
Norway Adeccoligaen - Elverum vs Sandefjord:
Sandefjord with the chance to go joint top tonight with a win away to bottom club Elverum. Jaiteh is back in midfield after missing the 1-1 draw in the last home game. Sandefjord have been better away this season winning 60% of their games. Elverum yet to win and have only picked up 2 draws. I think Sandefjord win this and hopefully comfortably.

Taken Sandefjord -1 @ 2.02 on Pinny. Risking 1u.

Round up from today and the weekend:

Went 4-4-1 with the picks. Up 1.5 units.

Overall record now 54.5-52-5.5. +15.2 units.

[stemellor]

19 June

Sweden Allsvenskan - Hacken vs Atvidaberg:

I think Hacken probably sneak this one, but there's no value on them against Atvidaberg. Both teams have been scoring quite a few goals in the last 4 or 5 games and both games last year between the 2 went over.

Taken o2.5 goals @1.91 on 188Bet. Risking 2u.

Confederations Cup - Brazil vs Mexico
Everyone seems to be on Brazil today, probably with good reason as Mexico have been pretty dreadful recently. Mexico do have a good record against Brazil and should be able to lift themselves for this game. There are good odds on BTTS at the moment, so have taken:

BTTS @ 2.0 on Coral. Risking 1u.

[stemellor]

22 June - Argentina Primera

Last day of the Clausura. Last week's picks went to plan and again the bookies have given really strange looking odds for the final week. Hopefully this can be taken advantage of. I'm playing the early markets as I expect the odds to drop here as they did last week. Team news is not available yet, but I'm happy to take the risk for the value which is currently in the early markets.

River Plate vs San Martin
I Just can't work out why River are odds on favourites here. They are now out of the title race and have little to play for in all honesty. They were humiliated by Lanus in the last game 5-1 as they had little to play for then.
San Martin are in excellent form as they attempt the great escape and have won all of their last 4 games. If they win against River they definitely stay up.

Taken San Martin @ 4.5 on Betway. Risking 1u.
Also, Draw/San Martin double chance (same as AH +0.5) @ 1.9 on Betway. Risking 4u.

Velez vs Atletico Rafaela
Again, no idea why Velez are such short priced here. Velez have been awful in the Clausura and will surely be concentrated on the Championship final on 28 June. Atletico Rafaela need a point to guarantee safety and I see them getting this here.

Taken a draw @ 3.3. Risking 1u.
Also, Draw/Atletico Rafaela double chance (same as AH +0.5) @ 1.9 on Betway. Risking 1u.

There is another game I will likely add in here as well. Just need to await the results from the mid week games.

[stemellor]

18 June

U21 European Championship Final
Spain clean sheet @ 2.4 on Betway. Risking 1u.
To be honest, I think it's unlikely that Spain won't concede, but these odds are really good, so I'm risking a unit.

Double result - Draw/Spain @ 4.5. Risking 1u.
I'm hoping the Italians keep this compact and tight, with Spain nicking a goal in the second half.

WCQ - USA vs Honduras
Conscious I'm treading water with these picks this month, so going to try and get the profit moving again. It seems everyone and their mums were putting money on the US as I was, so had to pay extra in the end.

Taken USA -1 @ 1.65 on 188bet. Risking 11units.

[stemellor]

U21 European Championship Final
Spain clean sheet @ 2.4 on Betway. Risking 1u.
To be honest, I think it's unlikely that Spain won't concede, but these odds are really good, so I'm risking a unit.

Double result - Draw/Spain @ 4.5. Risking 1u.
I'm hoping the Italians keep this compact and tight, with Spain nicking a goal in the second half.

WCQ - USA vs Honduras
Conscious I'm treading water with these picks this month, so going to try and get the profit moving again. It seems everyone and their mums were putting money on the US as I was, so had to pay extra in the end.

Taken USA -1 @ 1.65 on 188bet. Risking 11units.

The US game finished as a push unfortunately. 0-2-1 from yesteday. -2 units.

Overall record now 54.5-54-6.5. +13.2 units

[hundo]

Usa game was a snooze fest!

Glad you got the push though..

[stemellor]

Sweden Allsvenskan - Hacken vs Atvidaberg:

I think Hacken probably sneak this one, but there's no value on them against Atvidaberg. Both teams have been scoring quite a few goals in the last 4 or 5 games and both games last year between the 2 went over.

Taken o2.5 goals @1.91 on 188Bet. Risking 2u.

Confederations Cup - Brazil vs Mexico
Everyone seems to be on Brazil today, probably with good reason as Mexico have been pretty dreadful recently. Mexico do have a good record against Brazil and should be able to lift themselves for this game. There are good odds on BTTS at the moment, so have taken:

BTTS @ 2.0 on Coral. Risking 1u.

Also adding:
Argentina Copa - San Lorenzo vs Atletico Rafaela
5 units on San Lorenzo not to lose.

Sweden Allsvenskan - Elfsborg vs Gefle
5 of Elfsborg's last 6 games have gone over along with 3 of Gefle's. If you look at Gefle's last 6 away games then 5 of these have also gone over. 60% of Elfsborg's home games are over this season and 80% of Gefle's are over.

Taken o2.5 goals @ 1.8 on Pinny. Risking 5u.

[stemellor]

Last day of the Clausura. Last week's picks went to plan and again the bookies have given really strange looking odds for the final week. Hopefully this can be taken advantage of. I'm playing the early markets as I expect the odds to drop here as they did last week. Team news is not available yet, but I'm happy to take the risk for the value which is currently in the early markets.

River Plate vs San Martin
I Just can't work out why River are odds on favourites here. They are now out of the title race and have little to play for in all honesty. They were humiliated by Lanus in the last game 5-1 as they had little to play for then.
San Martin are in excellent form as they attempt the great escape and have won all of their last 4 games. If they win against River they definitely stay up.

Taken San Martin @ 4.5 on Betway. Risking 1u.
Also, Draw/San Martin double chance (same as AH +0.5) @ 1.9 on Betway. Risking 4u.

Velez vs Atletico Rafaela
Again, no idea why Velez are such short priced here. Velez have been awful in the Clausura and will surely be concentrated on the Championship final on 28 June. Atletico Rafaela need a point to guarantee safety and I see them getting this here.

Taken a draw @ 3.3. Risking 1u.
Also, Draw/Atletico Rafaela double chance (same as AH +0.5) @ 1.9 on Betway. Risking 1u.

There is another game I will likely add in here as well. Just need to await the results from the mid week games.

Adding 1u on Argentinos Juniors vs Newells ML (5.25 on Betway) and 1u Argentinos Juniors not to get beat (2.2 on Stan James).

NOB have won the league now and Argentinos Juniors have to get a result to have a chance of avoiding relegation.

[andyrocha90]

hey ste, you seem to have a grip on the argentinian league, any lean for tonight's game, Union v. Racing Club?

[stemellor]

hey ste, you seem to have a grip on the argentinian league, any lean for tonight's game, Union v. Racing Club?

No real angle on this Andy. Union already relegated. Racing should win, but last time I checked they were around 1.5 to win. Too much juice on a meaningless game for me as Racing have already qualified for the Copa Sudamericana.

[andyrocha90]

Thanks ste. Will play the under since there is nothing to play for

[stemellor]

21 July

Switzerland Challenge League:
Chiasso vs Wil - over 2.5 @ 1.81 on Pinny. 1 unit

[stemellor]

Switzerland Challenge League:
Chiasso vs Wil - over 2.5 @ 1.81 on Pinny. 1 unit

This was a win, but did play the Inter vs Flamengo over which lost, so 1-1 yesterday.

22 July

Parlay: Sweden - Landskrona vs Varberg O2.5 & Switzerland - Servette vs Vaduz O2.5. 0.5 units on Paddypower.

Sweden Allsvenskan: Hacken vs AIK. AIK DNB @ evens on Ladbrokes.

[swordsandtequila]

This was a win, but did play the Inter vs Flamengo over which lost, so 1-1 yesterday.

22 July

Parlay: Sweden - Landskrona vs Varberg O2.5 & Switzerland - Servette vs Vaduz O2.5. 0.5 units on Paddypower.

.

Playing these as singles, over 2.5/3 each. Good luck!

[stemellor]

This was a win, but did play the Inter vs Flamengo over which lost, so 1-1 yesterday.

22 July

Parlay: Sweden - Landskrona vs Varberg O2.5 & Switzerland - Servette vs Vaduz O2.5. 0.5 units on Paddypower.

Sweden Allsvenskan: Hacken vs AIK. AIK DNB @ evens on Ladbrokes.

1-1 again today +0.5 units. Got the 6 goals I needed for the parlay, but unfortunately 5 were in 1 game!

[stemellor]

24 July

Sweden Superettan

Varnamo vs Degefors: Degefors DNB @ 1.84 on 188bet. 1 unit.

[Akatana]

Sweden Superettan

Varnamo vs Degefors: Degefors DNB @ 1.84 on 188bet. 1 unit.

Tailing thanks, will also sprinkle some on the ML. Bol

[stemellor]

25 July

Brazil Serie A

Sao Paulo vs Inter: Inter +0.25 @ 1.855 on Pinny for 1u.

[stemellor]

Sweden Superettan

Varnamo vs Degefors: Degefors DNB @ 1.84 on 188bet. 1 unit.

Got lucky with this. Degefors ended the game with 9 men, but managed to hang on for the draw.

Re-investing the push on Atletico Mineiro vs Olimpia: Under 2.5. 1 unit @ 2.23 on 188bet.

2 units on USA vs Honduras. USA ML @ 1.457 on Pinny

[stemellor]

Brazil Serie A

Sao Paulo vs Inter: Inter +0.25 @ 1.855 on Pinny for 1u.

Re-investing the push on Atletico Mineiro vs Olimpia: Under 2.5. 1 unit @ 2.23 on 188bet.

2 units on USA vs Honduras. USA ML @ 1.457 on Pinny

Clean sweep overnight

3 wins +3 units

[swordsandtequila]

Nice hit on the Copa under. Thought that line was off. I've learned to stay away from South America (Brazil especially) if at all conflicted. Bites me in the ass every time.

[stemellor]

Nice hit on the Copa under. Thought that line was off. I've learned to stay away from South America (Brazil especially) if at all conflicted. Bites me in the ass every time.

Thanks. Yes, nearly didn't play it myself. I'm trying not to subscibe too much to the 'bookie trap' way of thinking as value can be found in lines.

[stemellor]

27 July

Czech Gambrinus League

Pribam vs Plzen: Pribam +1
1 unit @ 1.85 on BetInternet

Adding

Denmark - Viborg vs FCN:
Over 2.5 goals
1 unit @ 1.73 Ladbrokes

[stemellor]

Czech Gambrinus League

Pribam vs Plzen: Pribam +1
1 unit @ 1.85 on BetInternet

Adding

Denmark - Viborg vs FCN:
Over 2.5 goals
1 unit @ 1.73 Ladbrokes

Both losses unfortunately. -2 units

[stemellor]

South Africa Premier League: Orlando Pirates vs Amazulu:
This is a very early play for Thursday, but the line looks off.

Under 2.5 goals @ 1.7 on Bwin.
I couldn't quite get 2 units on at Bwin. Marathonbet and BetVictor have the early line @ 1.73, but I'm gubbed on both sites.

[stemellor]

4 August

Sweden Allsvenskan: Atvidaberg vs Gefle
Atvidaberg ML - 1 unit @ 1.719 on Pinny

Club friendly: Napoli vs Porto
Over 2.5 goals - 1 unit @ 1.826 on Pinny

[vasilli07]

Any thoughts on St. Johnstone - Hearts game?

[stemellor]

Any thoughts on St. Johnstone - Hearts game?

It's not a league I really follow tbh. Your Shakhtar pick looks good though. Think that's worth a unit.