Ste's plays

[stemellor]

I've got a few upcoming plays so I'll keep track of them here, rather than setup new threads each time.

Currently up 3u (3-2.5-0.5)

[stemellor]

30 April

5u on Real Madrid clean sheet. In play @ 1.8. Free bet.

1 I have locked in early is SV Grodig vs First Vienna - Austria Erste Liga.
I have Grodig winning this by 2, but I'm going to pay and take Grodig -1 @ 1.820 on Pinny. Vienna in a reasonably comfortable mid table position and Grodig looking to ensure their promotion.

Risking to win 1u

[stemellor]

5u on Real Madrid clean sheet. In play @ 1.8. Free bet.

1 I have locked in early is SV Grodig vs First Vienna - Austria Erste Liga.
I have Grodig winning this by 2, but I'm going to pay and take Grodig -1 @ 1.820 on Pinny. Vienna in a reasonably comfortable mid table position and Grodig looking to ensure their promotion.

Risking to win 1u

Worked out nicely in the end. +5u today and +8u total.

Record 5-2.5-0.5

[stemellor]

1 May

Think it's just going to be 1 play today unless I can find some value when watching the Barca vs Bayern game.

South Africa - Platinum Stars vs Maritzburg Utd.

Pick is 3u risk on Platinum -0.5 currently 1.9 on Bet365.

I make Platinum Stars around a 55% chance of winning tonight, so this offers good value.

Platinum are still in with a slim chance of winning the league, so need a win tonight and Maritzburg are meandering in mid-table. Hopefully a comfortable win for Platinum tonight.

[stemellor]

Think it's just going to be 1 play today unless I can find some value when watching the Barca vs Bayern game.

South Africa - Platinum Stars vs Maritzburg Utd.

Pick is 3u risk on Platinum -0.5 currently 1.9 on Bet365.

I make Platinum Stars around a 55% chance of winning tonight, so this offers good value.

Platinum are still in with a slim chance of winning the league, so need a win tonight and Maritzburg are meandering in mid-table. Hopefully a comfortable win for Platinum tonight.

Had to sweat on this one, but 2 goals in the last 10 mins took the points.

Record 6-2.5-0.5
+10.7u

[Johndrama]

nice hit, wanted to tail live, but for some reason bet365 removed the game. Keep up the good work

[stemellor]

nice hit, wanted to tail live, but for some reason bet365 removed the game. Keep up the good work

Thanks very much for the points John. Shame, looks like Bet365 don't do in play on this league.

[stemellor]

2 May

Tailing Easy Pick's Benfica/Chelsea parlay tonight 1u risk. Looks the best bet of the night.

[stemellor]

3 May

J-League: Oita vs Omiya Ardija

Can't believe how good this line looks so locked it early. Oita are newly promoted and are struggling at the bottom of the table. Omiya have won all their away games so far this season and sit on top of the league.

Currently Omiya -0.5 is 1.847 on Pinny. Going to risk to win 1.5u.

I would normally play this much larger, but this line looks too good to be true, so probably is! Going to play this one conservatively as I can't find much info on injuries for this game. I'm getting around a 70% chance of winning for Omiya based on form, so I'm going to risk this as the odds look too good to pass.

Austria Este Liga: SV Grodig vs Austria Lustenau

2u on Grodig -0.75 @ 2.040 on Pinny.

Top vs second in the league and Grodig have the chance to claim promotion with a win here. Grodig are in really good form at the moment with 4 wins in the last 5 and a solid 67% win rate at home this season.
Lustenau have lost 4 of their last 5 games, with an overall 40% loss rate away from home.

I have even money on Grodig at -1.5 as the value line, so this looks really good to me. Considered taking Grodig -1 @ 2.3, but playing slightly conservatively just in case Lustenau decide to put up a bit of a fight in this game.

[Johndrama]

what the hell is happening in japan, bet365 announced 2 goals in the oita game, were they offside goals? because they got canceled quickly after. On the same subject, did you find any news on the game? absences injuries, because I'm considering tailing

edit: they just scored while i was typing. FML. Hope you win it at least, gl

[stemellor]

what the hell is happening in japan, bet365 announced 2 goals in the oita game, were they offside goals? because they got canceled quickly after. On the same subject, did you find any news on the game? absences injuries, because I'm considering tailing

edit: they just scored while i was typing. FML. Hope you win it at least, gl

Hope you tailed in the end. I'm in the UK so was asleep through all the drama!
I should have had more confidence in this play. I thought the line looked really wrong and 2-0 suggests it was.
Had a real struggle finding team news for the J-League for some reason. My normal sources didn't really report it. I'm guessing a lot of information is in Kanjii, so difficult to translate to a western alphabet. If anyone does know a good source though, grateful if you could let me know.

[Vaughany]

Check out gambaosakapride on twitter. Some dude who is crazy about gamba osaka! He does a podcast as well with another dude in jleague... Sebinomics or something he's called. They know all the best sources for jleague info tho


only had ardija pk in a parlay like you said, thought it was too good to be true amd tht their amazing streak has to end eventually!

[stemellor]

3 May - Continued

Adding another play today.

Moldova - National Division FC Milsami vs FC Speranta

Pick is FC Milsami -1.75 @ 1.7 on Bet365. Risking to win 2u.

I have FC Milsami winning this by 3, so if my reading of this is correct there is plenty of value here.

FC Milsami are currently 5 points off a European qualification place, with 5 games left to play, so a win is essential here. They have a win % of over 70% at home and FC Speranta are already relegated and have been thrashed in the last 2 games. No reports of any injuries or suspensions for FC Milsami. Milsami beat the other relegated team 4-0 at home recently and have won 4 of their last 5 games.

[stemellor]

Check out gambaosakapride on twitter. Some dude who is crazy about gamba osaka! He does a podcast as well with another dude in jleague... Sebinomics or something he's called. They know all the best sources for jleague info tho


only had ardija pk in a parlay like you said, thought it was too good to be true amd tht their amazing streak has to end eventually!

Nice, cheers Vaughany. Was also thinking like you were about Ardija as they are a perennial mid table team who have had an amazing start. I'm going to have a difficult decision about whether to play them or not in the next game now. The line also moved out slightly before game time. Looks like the sharps got this one wrong.

[stemellor]

Adding another play today.

Moldova - National Division FC Milsami vs FC Speranta

Pick is FC Milsami -1.75 @ 1.7 on Bet365. Risking to win 2u.

I have FC Milsami winning this by 3, so if my reading of this is correct there is plenty of value here.

FC Milsami are currently 5 points off a European qualification place, with 5 games left to play, so a win is essential here. They have a win % of over 70% at home and FC Speranta are already relegated and have been thrashed in the last 2 games. No reports of any injuries or suspensions for FC Milsami. Milsami beat the other relegated team 4-0 at home recently and have won 4 of their last 5 games.

Last minute goal by Speranta. Finished 2-1.

[Johndrama]

Thinking of tailing the grodig play. How does it look so far? from what I see so far in those 20 min, the odds have dropped on grodig

Edit: Managed to grab the -0.75 line 2 min before they scored. Let's hope we hold

[stemellor]

J-League: Oita vs Omiya Ardija

Can't believe how good this line looks so locked it early. Oita are newly promoted and are struggling at the bottom of the table. Omiya have won all their away games so far this season and sit on top of the league.

Currently Omiya -0.5 is 1.847 on Pinny. Going to risk to win 1.5u.

I would normally play this much larger, but this line looks too good to be true, so probably is! Going to play this one conservatively as I can't find much info on injuries for this game. I'm getting around a 70% chance of winning for Omiya based on form, so I'm going to risk this as the odds look too good to pass.

Austria Este Liga: SV Grodig vs Austria Lustenau

2u on Grodig -0.75 @ 2.040 on Pinny.

Top vs second in the league and Grodig have the chance to claim promotion with a win here. Grodig are in really good form at the moment with 4 wins in the last 5 and a solid 67% win rate at home this season.
Lustenau have lost 4 of their last 5 games, with an overall 40% loss rate away from home.

I have even money on Grodig at -1.5 as the value line, so this looks really good to me. Considered taking Grodig -1 @ 2.3, but playing slightly conservatively just in case Lustenau decide to put up a bit of a fight in this game.

Poor money management and a 90th minute goal cost me today.

Overall record now 7.5-3.5-1. +10.3u

[stemellor]

Thinking of tailing the grodig play. How does it look so far? from what I see so far in those 20 min, the odds have dropped on grodig

Edit: Managed to grab the -0.75 line 2 min before they scored. Let's hope we hold

Good work. Not a full win, but profit is profit. Bit scary at the end with the equaliser and red card!

[Johndrama]

Ha that's how I like it, with a bit of sweat to feel that I've worked for the money

[stemellor]

4 May

I have quite a few leans for tomorrow I'm looking at. First lock is below:

Austria - Mattersburg vs WAC St Andra
I have WAC around even favourites in this match, so an even money PK looks like great value. Mattersburg have lost the last 3 home matches, WAC lost their last away match heavily to in form Salzburg, but won the four previous games. Both teams have something to fight for in this match, so I'm taking the PK, rather than ml.

Wac St Andra - PK @ 2.05 on Pinny. 3u play.

Parlay: Red Bull Salzburg & Fk Sarajevo @ 1.75 - 3u play
Both teams in great form and have a 100% win record against their opponent, at home.

English Championship - Bolton vs Blackpool

Local derby and taking a risk as the line has just gone crazy! Bolton in great form at home and need a win to ensure a playoff spot. Blackpool just with pride to play for. Should be a tight game, but taken Bolton @ 1.769 -0.5. Risking to win 1u

Adding Porto -1.5 as a late game @ 2.03 on Pinny. Risking 3u

[stemellor]

I have quite a few leans for tomorrow I'm looking at. First lock is below:

Austria - Mattersburg vs WAC St Andra
I have WAC around even favourites in this match, so an even money PK looks like great value. Mattersburg have lost the last 3 home matches, WAC lost their last away match heavily to in form Salzburg, but won the four previous games. Both teams have something to fight for in this match, so I'm taking the PK, rather than ml.

Wac St Andra - PK @ 2.05 on Pinny. 3u play. Big loss, wasn't a 3u play.

Parlay: Red Bull Salzburg & Fk Sarajevo @ 1.75 - 3u play
Both teams in great form and have a 100% win record against their opponent, at home.
Good win, but should have been a bigger play.

English Championship - Bolton vs Blackpool

Local derby and taking a risk as the line has just gone crazy! Bolton in great form at home and need a win to ensure a playoff spot. Blackpool just with pride to play for. Should be a tight game, but taken Bolton @ 1.769 -0.5. Risking to win 1u. Silly bet with the line movement. Loss

Adding Porto -1.5 as a late game @ 2.03 on Pinny. Risking 3u

Happy with this play and a nice win to finish off the day.

Not a bad day, but still need to work on money management.
2 wins and 2 losses from my picks today. Up 1 unit for the day.


Overall record 9.5-5.5-1. +11.4u

[stemellor]

5 May

Poland - Legia Warsaw vs Lechia Gdansk
Legia have just been knocked off the top spot by Poznan, so will be desperate for 3 points. Legia are far superior in the h2h between these 2 teams winning 7 out of 8 at home. I have Legia as comfortable 2-0 winners, and no reports of any significant injuries.

Taking Legia @ 1.97 on Bet365, -1.25 hdcp risking to win 1u.

Portugal - Guimaraes vs Gil Vicente

Like this play a lot. Great chance for Guimaraes to jump ahead of Estoril for a European spot. With Estoril away to benfica on Monday this is surely a chance they can't pass up. Guimaraes are in good form at home and I see a tight home victory. I have Guimaraes at around a 50% chance of winning.

Taking Guimaraes -0.5 @ Pinny for 2.21. Risking 1u.

EPL - parlay: BTTS

Liverpool/Everton & Man Utd/Chelsea - BTTS parlay.
1u @ 2.5 on Bet365

[KATCHASE]

Nice job & good luck

[stemellor]

Nice job & good luck

Thanks Kat. Going to keep the money a bit tighter today

[stemellor]

Poland - Legia Warsaw vs Lechia Gdansk
Legia have just been knocked off the top spot by Poznan, so will be desperate for 3 points. Legia are far superior in the h2h between these 2 teams winning 7 out of 8 at home. I have Legia as comfortable 2-0 winners, and no reports of any significant injuries.

Taking Legia @ 1.97 on Bet365, -1.25 hdcp risking to win 1u.

Portugal - Guimaraes vs Gil Vicente

Like this play a lot. Great chance for Guimaraes to jump ahead of Estoril for a European spot. With Estoril away to benfica on Monday this is surely a chance they can't pass up. Guimaraes are in good form at home and I see a tight home victory. I have Guimaraes at around a 50% chance of winning.

Taking Guimaraes -0.5 @ Pinny for 2.21. Risking 1u.

EPL - parlay: BTTS

Liverpool/Everton & Man Utd/Chelsea - BTTS parlay.
1u @ 2.5 on Bet365

Strange day in the EPL. Only 1 goal today.
Surprised about the Warsaw game, half push half loss as they only won 1-0.
Guimaraes won nicely 3-1.
Overall, down 0.3u today

Overall record 10.5-6-1.5 +11.1u

[Johndrama]

really nice profit overall, I have to thank you for the legia play, didnt pay much attention to it till I saw it in your thread, and jumped on it live @ -0.75 ( not trying to brag here or anything, I know you needed that extra goal ). As for the others...I'm not well documented in the portuguese market so I can't give my opinion, nice that it hit. Ugly EPL, always hated them profit wise, they provide interesting games with weird outcomes.....things that usually profit a gambler that chases high odds so I try to avoid it, unless my spider sense tells me otherwise

[stemellor]

Thanks. Still think this was a good pick. Glad you made profit.
EPL is so hard to find value in as so many people play it the lines are generally very efficient. There are still opportunities though here and there.

[stemellor]

6 May

Small card today, so need to maximise the good plays.
Japan - Tokyo vs Jubilo Iwata
These are 2 evenly matched teams from last season who have made very different starts. Tokyo have won 75% of their home games and Iwata have lost 75% of their away games. I'm hoping this trend continues today.

Taking Tokyo -0.5 @ 1.99 on Pinny. Risking to win 2u.

Bulgaria - Levski Sofia vs Minyor Pernik

Levski should record a comfortable victory today. The handicap is -2.5, but I only have Levski as winners by 2, so taking Minyor Pernik here +2.5.
Levski won earlier in the season 4-0, but Pernik have put in a few half decent results recently and have a genuine chance to avoid relegation. I'm hoping Pernik will come out fighting and keep this one fairly close. Also, being beaten so heavily earlier in the season should focus Pernik on keeping things tight. Previous meetings between the 2 clubs have been much closer.

Taking Pernik +2.5 for 2u @ 1.93 on Betdaq.

Hedged in play - Levski -0.75. 1.8u @ 2.075

[stemellor]

New Rules

Okay, so a partial success so far, but I'm more and more conscious of a lack of discipline. Messing around in-play cost me 2u and a well researched play on the Levski Sofia game.

So I've stepped back, didn't play anything this evening and looked objectively at how the last couple of weeks have gone and decided to keep the bets within the following boundaries:

1. Absolutely no in-play at all. This is my single worst downfall as I lack discipline.
2. Units of play. 0.5, 1 and 2 unit plays only.
3. Three bets per day maximum. This should help avoid chasing losses. Losing days are inevitable and must be allowed to happen.
4. If any of the above are broken then I must take a break for 1 day.

Overall record: 11.5-8-1.5. +9.1u

[hundo]

Good rules, I've made a killing today on live-betting last minute goals...also guilty of breaking rule #2.

[stemellor]

Good rules, I've made a killing today on live-betting last minute goals...also guilty of breaking rule #2.

Yeah, some people are good at reading the game and can profit. I'm consistently on the wrong side of the goals though.

[stemellor]

7 May

3 plays found quite easily today. Hopefully the results will be as easy for me.

EPL: Wigan vs Swansea
Wigan and Martinez have the experience in this spot. Following a good win against WBA I expect them to follow this up against a safe mid table Swansea.

Taken Wigan ML @ 1.8 on Bet365. Risking to win 2u

Lithuania A Lyga: FC Siauliai vs Suduva Marij
These 2 teams have been involved in a few goal fests in recent matches and another big score is expected here. In fact 100% of Siauliai home games and 100% of Suduva away games have gone over 2.5 goals this season. Word of warning though, the last 3 h2h games have gone under.

Taken the very generous Bet365 o2.5 odds of 1.75 for 1u. This is a better rate than currently trading on the exchanges.

Switzerland Challenge League: Young Boys vs Grasshopper Zurich

I like Grasshoppers in this spot. They have more to play for than Young Boys and a win will put them joint top. Young boys have been beaten a number of times at home recently and Grasshoppers have only lost once in the last 7 away games.

Taken Grasshoppers +0.25 @ 1.870 for 1u.
Also added Grasshoppers PK @ 2.040 for 1u (still think this has just a shade of value).

[Johndrama]

agree with you on epl and grasshoppers. Very good odds on the grasshoppers, not so good for wigan, wont be an easy game but motivation is there even though you never know what can happen in the epl. bol, might tail on these 2.

[onemoregoal]

I personally prefer BTTS at the same odds of 1.8. Swans can play good football, 5.20 on them to win is disrespectful imo.
Wigan defence is poor also conceding nearly 2 per game and almost the worst in the league.
Swans may just roll over and play 70% but thats getting a bit boring now.

[onemoregoal]

Didnt know Michu is out for the rest of season, ok no bet game.
gl with Wigan 2-1