Ste's plays

[stemellor]

Thanks both. Yes, not good odds on Wigan. Annoyed I didn't take them when they were around 1.9.

[stemellor]

3 plays found quite easily today. Hopefully the results will be as easy for me.

EPL: Wigan vs Swansea
Wigan and Martinez have the experience in this spot. Following a good win against WBA I expect them to follow this up against a safe mid table Swansea.

Taken Wigan ML @ 1.8 on Bet365. Risking to win 2u

Lithuania A Lyga: FC Siauliai vs Suduva Marij
These 2 teams have been involved in a few goal fests in recent matches and another big score is expected here. In fact 100% of Siauliai home games and 100% of Suduva away games have gone over 2.5 goals this season. Word of warning though, the last 3 h2h games have gone under.

Taken the very generous Bet365 o2.5 odds of 1.75 for 1u. This is a better rate than currently trading on the exchanges.

Switzerland Challenge League: Young Boys vs Grasshopper Zurich

I like Grasshoppers in this spot. They have more to play for than Young Boys and a win will put them joint top. Young boys have been beaten a number of times at home recently and Grasshoppers have only lost once in the last 7 away games.

Taken Grasshoppers +0.25 @ 1.870 for 1u.
Also added Grasshoppers PK @ 2.040 for 1u (still think this has just a shade of value).

Bad day! All 3 losers. Down 5.5u today.

Record 11.5-11-1.5 +4.6u

[stemellor]

8 May

Bulgaria: Botev Plovdiv vs Loko Plovdiv

Botev fighting for Europe next year and Loko just really playing for pride. This is local derby and a normally fiercely contested one, so just playing this small. Botev in really good form at home and Loko have been awful away in the last few games.

Botev -1 @1.875 on Bet365. Risking to win 1.5u

EPL: Chelsea vs Tottenham

Coin toss scenario, but there is a touch of value on Spurs here.

2u on Spurs +0.5 @ 2.03 on Pinny.

[stemellor]

Bulgaria: Botev Plovdiv vs Loko Plovdiv

Botev fighting for Europe next year and Loko just really playing for pride. This is local derby and a normally fiercely contested one, so just playing this small. Botev in really good form at home and Loko have been awful away in the last few games.

Botev -1 @1.875 on Bet365. Risking to win 1.5u

EPL: Chelsea vs Tottenham

Coin toss scenario, but there is a touch of value on Spurs here.

2u on Spurs +0.5 @ 2.03 on Pinny.

Phew! A tiny profit today, but it's better than a loss.

Overall record now 12.5-12-1.5. +4.7u

[stemellor]

9 May

2 plays found and might add another later

Romania Liga 1:

Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Viitorul Constanta Pandurii are fighting for European qualification and Viitorul by all accounts have been awful in recent weeks. They also have their best striker suspended for this game.
I have Pandurii as 2-0 winners, so this bet has nice value attached.

Taking Pandurii -1.25 @ 1.971 on Pinny for 2u

Switzerland Challenge League:

Aarau vs Biel Bienne
Aarau are looking to secure promotion and Biel Bienne are mid table. Aarau have a win % at home of over 70% and are in great form. Biel Bienne are also in good form over the last few games. H2H between these 2 games have seen a lot of goals in recent games and generally Aarau winning by 2 or more.

Taking Aarau -1.5 @ 2.04 on Pinny for 2u

Holland KNVB Beker Cup:

Cup final between AZ and PSV. PSV have just been beaten to the league by Ajax and AZ sit in mid table. AZ impressively beat Ajax in the semi finals 3-0. PSV have a clear upper hand against AZ, winning by more than 2 goals in 4 of the last 6 meetings, which also included a 3-1 win away to AZ on 20 April.
I'm taking PSV to put the disappointment of losing the title behind them and come back motivated to ensure they take a trophy this season.

Taking PSV -1 @ 2.03 on Pinny for 2u.

[KATCHASE]

Phew! A tiny profit today, but it's better than a loss.

Overall record now 12.5-12-1.5. +4.7u

Things are looking up. BOL tomorrow... Your write ups look solid.

[Johndrama]

Pandurii is just too good of a pick, saw it a few days back, it has incredible value at these odds. Will play it too tomorrow, high stakes. gl

[stemellor]

Thanks both. Let's make some money today. Also added my third and final pick of the day in the Dutch cup final.

[Johndrama]

damn I see now that you're on psv -1. Well what can I say gl to both of us, may the best man win ?

[stemellor]

damn I see now that you're on psv -1. Well what can I say gl to both of us, may the best man win ?

Only 1 thing is certain and that is that one of us will definitely cash on this tonight. BOL as well.

[SlowNsteady]

Az looking good.

[stemellor]

Game over after 20 minutes!!

[SlowNsteady]

Game over after 20 minutes!!

not so fast S! PSV will not give up

[Johndrama]

let's go pandurii ! we both need that win. gl to all

[stemellor]

2 plays found and might add another later

Romania Liga 1:

Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Viitorul Constanta Pandurii are fighting for European qualification and Viitorul by all accounts have been awful in recent weeks. They also have their best striker suspended for this game.
I have Pandurii as 2-0 winners, so this bet has nice value attached.

Taking Pandurii -1.25 @ 1.971 on Pinny for 2u

Switzerland Challenge League:

Aarau vs Biel Bienne
Aarau are looking to secure promotion and Biel Bienne are mid table. Aarau have a win % at home of over 70% and are in great form. Biel Bienne are also in good form over the last few games. H2H between these 2 games have seen a lot of goals in recent games and generally Aarau winning by 2 or more.

Taking Aarau -1.5 @ 2.04 on Pinny for 2u

Holland KNVB Beker Cup:

Cup final between AZ and PSV. PSV have just been beaten to the league by Ajax and AZ sit in mid table. AZ impressively beat Ajax in the semi finals 3-0. PSV have a clear upper hand against AZ, winning by more than 2 goals in 4 of the last 6 meetings, which also included a 3-1 win away to AZ on 20 April.
I'm taking PSV to put the disappointment of losing the title behind them and come back motivated to ensure they take a trophy this season.

Taking PSV -1 @ 2.03 on Pinny for 2u.

Bad start to the day with PSV beaten, but a good finish. Aarau had an excellent 6-0 win, followed up with Pandurii winning 4-1. Finished +2u today.

Overall record: 14.5-13-1.5. +6.7u

[Johndrama]

nice win with the swiss and nice that we all cashed on the romanians

[stemellor]

nice win with the swiss and nice that we all cashed on the romanians

Good day today, along with Katchase as well. Think we've all had a few strange result in the last few days. Lets put a good run together now.

[SlowNsteady]

Nice work today!

[stemellor]

Nice work today!

Thanks. Just putting together Friday and Saturday's plays now.

[stemellor]

10 May

Russian Premier League: Spartak Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov

This looks like a Spartak victory to me, but their odds look too skinny. In fact, Krylya are actually playing quite well away from home and will again be scrapping for points to move out of the relegation playoffs. Krylya have actually won 4 of their last 8 away from home and have not lost by more than 1 during this time. I have Spartak winning this by 1.

Taking Krylya Sovetov + 1.5 for 1u @ 1.840 on Pinny as the value pick.

Czech Gambrinus League: Dukla vs Brno

Dukla with a slight chance of European qualification if they can put a good run together. Dukla have been excellent at home, compared with Brno who have generally lost by around 2 goals away from home in the last couple of months.

I'm taking Dukla here -1 @ 2.140 for 2u on Pinny. This has nice value attached as I have this as 2-0 to Dukla.

I have a 2u pick lined up as well. Just waiting for the Asian handicap lines to arrive.

[KATCHASE]

Bad start to the day with PSV beaten, but a good finish. Aarau had an excellent 6-0 win, followed up with Pandurii winning 4-1. Finished +2u today.

Overall record: 14.5-13-1.5. +6.7u

A walk in the park for you today stemellor...you make it look too easy - Congrats!

[stemellor]

11 May

Spain Segunda Division: Girona vs Xerez
Xerez already relegated and Girona fighting to secure the second automatic promotion spot. Not better opportunity to put a confident win on the board than here. Girona in really good form at home and Xerez will likely be demoralised after being relegated last weekend. I have this as 3-0 to Girona, so the odds represent fantastic value. I'm playing this early as I think the odds will shorten.

Taking Girona -1.5 @ 1.943 on Pinny for 2u. I'm considering increasing this past my maximum though as this looks really good value.

Yankee

Playing Bayern Munich, Shaktar Donetsk, Girona and Ludogorets Razgrad in a Yankee.

Betting 2.2u to win 2u if all win, with lower returns if 1 or more loses.

Japan J League: Hiroshima vs Oita Trinita
Hiroshima haven't been playing particularly well, but should have too much for winless Oita. Oita's defence has been pretty awful, so the perfect spot for Hiroshima to bag a couple of goals.

Backing Hiroshima -0.75 1.917 on Pinny for 0.5u

[stemellor]

A walk in the park for you today stemellor...you make it look too easy - Congrats!

Thanks. Not often I'm not sweating into the final 10 minutes!

[KATCHASE]

Thanks. Not often I'm not sweating into the final 10 minutes!

I hear ya there...lol.

[andyrocha90]

forgot to thank u for ur swiss, romania plays, saved my day.

[stemellor]

forgot to thank u for ur swiss, romania plays, saved my day.

No problem Andy. Glad you made some money as well.

[stemellor]

Russian Premier League: Spartak Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov

This looks like a Spartak victory to me, but their odds look too skinny. In fact, Krylya are actually playing quite well away from home and will again be scrapping for points to move out of the relegation playoffs. Krylya have actually won 4 of their last 8 away from home and have not lost by more than 1 during this time. I have Spartak winning this by 1.

Taking Krylya Sovetov + 1.5 for 1u @ 1.840 on Pinny as the value pick.

Czech Gambrinus League: Dukla vs Brno

Dukla with a slight chance of European qualification if they can put a good run together. Dukla have been excellent at home, compared with Brno who have generally lost by around 2 goals away from home in the last couple of months.

I'm taking Dukla here -1 @ 2.140 for 2u on Pinny. This has nice value attached as I have this as 2-0 to Dukla.

I have a 2u pick lined up as well. Just waiting for the Asian handicap lines to arrive.

Dukla game was cancelled and the other game ended in a welcome, but surprise draw. +0.8u today.

Overall record now 15.5-13-1.5 +7.5u

[stemellor]

Spain Segunda Division: Girona vs Xerez
Xerez already relegated and Girona fighting to secure the second automatic promotion spot. Not better opportunity to put a confident win on the board than here. Girona in really good form at home and Xerez will likely be demoralised after being relegated last weekend. I have this as 3-0 to Girona, so the odds represent fantastic value. I'm playing this early as I think the odds will shorten.

Taking Girona -1.5 @ 1.943 on Pinny for 2u. I'm considering increasing this past my maximum though as this looks really good value.

Yankee

Playing Bayern Munich, Shaktar Donetsk, Girona and Ludogorets Razgrad in a Yankee.

Betting 2.2u to win 2u if all win, with lower returns if 1 or more loses.

Japan J League: Hiroshima vs Oita Trinita
Hiroshima haven't been playing particularly well, but should have too much for winless Oita. Oita's defence has been pretty awful, so the perfect spot for Hiroshima to bag a couple of goals.

Backing Hiroshima -0.75 1.917 on Pinny for 0.5u

Also adding the following 2 plays today:

Portugal: Estoril vs Beira Mar

Estoril off the back of a great draw with Benfica and Beira Mar battling relegation. Estoril have won their last 5 home games are now have a real chance of qualifying for Europe next year. Beira Mar have lost 7 of their last 8 away games. I have Estoril with around a 60% chance of winning tonight.

Taking Estoril -0.5 for 1u @ 1.847 on Pinny as the value pick.

Belgium Playoffs: Lokeren vs Zulte Waregam
This goes against my normal style of value betting as I am taking a bit of a punt with this one. Zulte have lost their last 2 games, but Lokeren have very little to play for here. To qualify for the Europa League playoff spot they would have to win all 3 remaining games and hope Genk also lose all 3. Zulte can still win the league and must have the greater motivation in this match. Zulte also play better away from home this year.

I'm taking Zulte DNB for 1u @ 1.909 on Pinny.

[Tenver]

Also adding the following 2 plays today:

Portugal: Estoril vs Beira Mar

Estoril off the back of a great draw with Benfica and Beira Mar battling relegation. Estoril have won their last 5 home games are now have a real chance of qualifying for Europe next year. Beira Mar have lost 7 of their last 8 away games. I have Estoril with around a 60% chance of winning tonight.

Taking Estoril -0.5 for 1u @ 1.847 on Pinny as the value pick.

Belgium Playoffs: Lokeren vs Zulte Waregam
This goes against my normal style of value betting as I am taking a bit of a punt with this one. Zulte have lost their last 2 games, but Lokeren have very little to play for here. To qualify for the Europa League playoff spot they would have to win all 3 remaining games and hope Genk also lose all 3. Zulte can still win the league and must have the greater motivation in this match. Zulte also play better away from home this year.

I'm taking Zulte DNB for 1u @ 1.909 on Pinny.

Looks good! Tailing for sure . Noticed Zulte has a higher +1 handicap odds than Lokeren, so took that instead though. Currently at 1.53 for +1 Zulte and only 1.50 +1 for Lokeren. Definitely looks good by your analysis and on paper . Now lets just hope it works .

[swordsandtequila]

Odds on Girona -1.5 now +107 (5Dimes), can't find any info to support the shift so I'm tailing on this one. No reason this one doesn't end 2-0 at minimum. Good luck!

[Johndrama]

I really love your picks today, especially your estoril play, wanted to go big on them since I saw them, might aswell go -1.5 on them. Seems to be huge value.

I've been riding on waregem's away form for some time now but since it ended at standard's I'm having trust issues. I'll skip that game because it could go any direction.

[stemellor]

Thanks everyone. Hope we all make some money today.

[Gamblan]

Tailing the Estoril play! Good luck everyone

[BrianKay]

Girona not looking so good...need a lot of goals now.

[Johndrama]

love how these teams that are done decide to show up at the end of the season the f.uck shit up