Ste's plays

[stemellor]

Adding a play tonight

Argentina - Quilmes vs Racing
I originally passed on this play as it didn't represent any value. Sure, Quilmes are in decent form in the Clausura, but this seemed far too skinny odds on them.
Looking into it further though, Quilmes are actually just outside the relegation zone, with Independiente just below them. This isn't initially apparent as relegation in Argentina is an average of the last 3 season's results.

Quilmes are currently 7th in the Clausura, but 17th in the average of the last 3 seasons. What makes this even more interesting is that Quilmes' opponents tonight are the bitter local rivals of Independiente. Racing's fans are demanding that Racing players throw tonight's game to get their rivals relegated, with threats being issued etc. Motivationally, Quilmes have everything to play for, with Racing at best nothing to play for. It's unlikely that a Racing player is going to play a blinder with all that's going on.

I had to reign myself in on this play as nothing is certain, but decided to break my 3u max for this bet only.

Taken Quilmes ML @ 1.575 on Pinny for 5u.

Late pick last night. Hope a few people managed to spot this in time. Played out 1-0 to Quilmes.
+2.9u from this pick.

Overall record now: 38.5-32-4.5. +16.5u

[bing]

Late pick last night. Hope a few people managed to spot this in time. Played out 1-0 to Quilmes.
+2.9u from this pick.

Overall record now: 38.5-32-4.5. +16.5u

I didi play Quilmes after you posted it. thanks for the the play!!!

[KATCHASE]

I decided to tail your Quilmes pick last night. I managed to get it in live after a few minutes into the game. Thanks for the win! Great job!!

[stemellor]

Sweden - Helsingborg vs Atvidaberg
Malmo ended Helsingborg's run of 6 victories on Wednesday. Always likely to be a draw though as it's a derby game and Bedoya was suspended. Bedoya is back for this game though.
Atvidaberg have an okay away record, but have only played Kalmar of note, which ended in a draw. The other results away have been bottom of the table teams.

Of note between the 2 sides is that Helsingborg have won the last 4 matches and 3 of those victories have been 3-0. I was hoping for a -1 line on this game for real value and got it.

Taken Helsingborg -1 @ 1.85 on Bet365. Risking 2u.

Glad at least a couple of people managed to get on Quilmes last night.

Great result for Helsingborg, again beating Atvidaberg 3-0.

Unfortunate with the Varberg result. They went 1-0 up early on, then got a man sent off, gave away a penalty and then went on to lose. If Varberg had kept 11 men on the field I'm sure they would have at least covered the -0.5 side of the bet. -0.3 units from the Sweden plays.

Overall record now: 39.5-33-4.5. +16.2 units.

[stemellor]

Well in advance this pick, but the odds dropped literally as I was doing my research, so might be best to get the price now if you like the angle.

Finland - MYPA vs JJK:
The JJK fade has worked in the last couple of games as they seem to be in a real hole. MYPA are a good team at home and have won 4 out of 5 this season, including an excellent 3-0 win against second place VPS. They have also beaten Honka and Inter Turku this season, so have a good record against the better teams in the league.

JJK have lost their last 4 games away from home and are struggling at the bottom of the league.

MYPA will have their centre back Sesay suspended for this game. I'm hoping they won't miss him too much in this game. MYPA have the league's top scorer Sihlova, who is in great form to hopefully supply the goals here.

Taken MYPA ML @1.83 on Bet365. Risking to win 1u.

Added another play for tomorrow:

MLS - RSL vs San Jose:
RSL have done what's expected of them at home apart from a disappointing draw against Chicago.
San Jose have been pretty terrible on the road and were knocked out of the cup mid week. San Jose also have Bernardez out, which I likely to affect their defence even more.

H2H between the 2 are very even so I'm taking RSL on current form here. I have RSL's probability to win between 50 and 55%, so the odds here hold a touch of value.

Taken RSL ML @ 2.07 on Pinny, risking 1u.

[stemellor]

2 June

Adding another 3 plays for today, all in the Polish Ekstraklasa. I made a bit of a mess of my last Polish pick, looking to make amends with these.

Legia vs Slask:
Legia are champions and have an excellent home record. Slask are third and need a result to ensure they play in Europe next year. Granted the last time these teams met was in the cup, but Slask recorded a 1-0 victory on 8 May. I'm hoping Legia are going to take this one a bit easier than normal, as they are already confirmed champions and have drawn the last two games. Slask have all the motivation in this game and the line represents excellent value.

Taken Slask +0.5 @ 1.99 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u.

Jagelliona Bialystok vs Ruch Chorzow
Jagelliona bit me last time as I couldn't add up properly! They now are definitely confirmed safe and Ruch Chorzow need a win to be sure they won't be relegated. Although I think Ruch Chorzow win this game I've taken a bit of security as they might settle for a draw if results in the other games go for them.

Taken Ruch Chorzow DNB @ 1.877 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u.

Widzew Lodz vs Podbeskidzie
Again, real value in these lines. Widzew are confirmed safe and Podbeskidzie are currently relegated and have to win to have any chance to survive. Podbeskidzie have won the last 2 games, which included an away victory to Poznan, who were chasing the title at that stage.

Taken Podbeskidzie ML @ 2.06 on Pinny. Risking 1u.

[pudlo]

2 teams supose to be relegated but because Polonia Warszawa financial problems they are relegated to 1st division along with the last team. that said Ruch Chorzow are safe regardles of the result in todays match.

Slask will play in Europe next year because they made a final of Polish Cup against Legia which they lost but since Legia are champions they are plaing in Champions league qualifing rounds leaving europa league for Slask. waiting for lineups but this being last game for Legia at home I think they will play for the fans and we should expect their strongets team not the 2nd team they put out in chorzow on thursday.

[stemellor]

2 teams supose to be relegated but because Polonia Warszawa financial problems they are relegated to 1st division along with the last team. that said Ruch Chorzow are safe regardles of the result in todays match.

Slask will play in Europe next year because they made a final of Polish Cup against Legia which they lost but since Legia are champions they are plaing in Champions league qualifing rounds leaving europa league for Slask. waiting for lineups but this being last game for Legia at home I think they will play for the fans and we should expect their strongets team not the 2nd team they put out in chorzow on thursday.

Thanks for the info on Polonia. I'll see if there's an opportunity to arb out of the Ruch Chorzow game in play.

[pudlo]

Thanks for the info on Polonia. I'll see if there's an opportunity to arb out of the Ruch Chorzow game in play.

Jagiellonia came out with very offensive team, i'm going for goals.

[bolek]

Polonia is "death" ! They club will not exist after this season and all first team players just left the club ...Polonia's headcoach ,Potr Stokowiec left all first team players at home and he took 11 players form Polonia's youth teams ( 11 form U21 and the rest from U19 and even U17 ) Pogon will play for the last time at home this season and they will do everything to win this game .. The have a lot of chances against really young team who never play together and don't really have a big motivations ! Pogon its also "friends" with Legia Warszawa who's the local Polonia's rival so is another ascpet why Pogon will have motivation to win this game !Odds are really high here in my opinion and i will go big money here !

[Vaughany]

Legia def taking it seriously!

[bolek]

Polonia is "death" ! They club will not exist after this season and all first team players just left the club ...Polonia's headcoach ,Potr Stokowiec left all first team players at home and he took 11 players form Polonia's youth teams ( 11 form U21 and the rest from U19 and even U17 ) Pogon will play for the last time at home this season and they will do everything to win this game .. The have a lot of chances against really young team who never play together and don't really have a big motivations ! Pogon its also "friends" with Legia Warszawa who's the local Polonia's rival so is another ascpet why Pogon will have motivation to win this game !Odds are really high here in my opinion and i will go big money here !

$$$$$$$$

[stemellor]

Mypa lost 1-0 to JJK
RSL won 3-0
Slask lost 5-0
Ruch Chorzow lost 1-0
Podbeskidzie won 2-1

Down 1.2 units today.

Overall record now 41.5-36-4.5. +15 units.

[stemellor]

3 June

Looks like just 1 play tomorrow:

Sweden Superettan - Jonkopings vs Falkenberg
Both normally mid table teams, but Falkenberg have been playing well above expectations so far and are currently third in the league. Both teams won the last game, but Falkenberg's 4-1 over GAIS should give them plenty of confidence coming into this game. Falkenberg have only lost once away this season to Assyriska when they were flying.
H2H Falkenberg do have the edge away from home, but last season Jonkopings took 4 points.

I was seriously considering taking the straight money line odds on Falkenberg, but as they are over achieving it is likely they will start to have a dip in form. Still, the value is definitely on Falkenberg tomorrow.

Taken Falkenberg DNB @ 2.23 on Pinny. Risking 1u.

[stemellor]

Looks like just 1 play tomorrow:

Sweden Superettan - Jonkopings vs Falkenberg
Both normally mid table teams, but Falkenberg have been playing well above expectations so far and are currently third in the league. Both teams won the last game, but Falkenberg's 4-1 over GAIS should give them plenty of confidence coming into this game. Falkenberg have only lost once away this season to Assyriska when they were flying.
H2H Falkenberg do have the edge away from home, but last season Jonkopings took 4 points.

I was seriously considering taking the straight money line odds on Falkenberg, but as they are over achieving it is likely they will start to have a dip in form. Still, the value is definitely on Falkenberg tomorrow.

Taken Falkenberg DNB @ 2.23 on Pinny. Risking 1u.

This one contains a bit of speculation, but if correct will represent real value.

Colombia Apertura - Millonarios vs Alianza Petrolera
Taking a risk that Millonarios are going to play youngsters/reserves tonight. They qualified for the playoffs this weekend without playing, so this is effectively a meaningless game for them now. Millonarios are in good form at the moment, but the -1 line looks far too high on them.
At first glance Alianza have nothing to play for as nobody is relegated during the Apertura. However, Colombia operate a relegation system similar to that of Argentina where the results of the last 3 seasons are aggregated, with teams relegated at the end of the Clausura. Alianza are curently threatened with relegation and need these points tonight to improve their chances of staying in the league. I'm told Alianza have a number of injured players tonight, but I'm going to take the risk here and play them as they have all the motivation for points tonight.

Taken Alianza +0.25 @ 3.00 on Bet365. Risking 1u.

[Akatana]

Looks like just 1 play tomorrow:

Sweden Superettan - Jonkopings vs Falkenberg
Both normally mid table teams, but Falkenberg have been playing well above expectations so far and are currently third in the league. Both teams won the last game, but Falkenberg's 4-1 over GAIS should give them plenty of confidence coming into this game. Falkenberg have only lost once away this season to Assyriska when they were flying.
H2H Falkenberg do have the edge away from home, but last season Jonkopings took 4 points.

I was seriously considering taking the straight money line odds on Falkenberg, but as they are over achieving it is likely they will start to have a dip in form. Still, the value is definitely on Falkenberg tomorrow.

Taken Falkenberg DNB @ 2.23 on Pinny. Risking 1u.

BOL mate. I've got an even easier version of this. Falkenberg and draw (Double Chance) @ 1.50 which i have paired in a double with Sweden -1 and -1.5. Hope they keep it solid today. About the Sweden game, as it is a friendly anything can happen. But Macedonia are usually very poor in friendlies, plus they are missing their main stars which for a team like them is a huge blow. I'm sure all other factors are quite visible to everyone, so they should pull it off. And Falkenberg should be able to get something out of this game tonight, Jonkoping are not exactly match winner's at the moment and should find it difficult to win tonight, plus the home advantage here is invisible, other than the visitors travelling a little, it's not an issue in these 2nd tier European leagues with teams of fairly equal quality.

[stemellor]

BOL mate. I've got an even easier version of this. Falkenberg and draw (Double Chance) @ 1.50 which i have paired in a double with Sweden -1 and -1.5. Hope they keep it solid today. About the Sweden game, as it is a friendly anything can happen. But Macedonia are usually very poor in friendlies, plus they are missing their main stars which for a team like them is a huge blow. I'm sure all other factors are quite visible to everyone, so they should pull it off. And Falkenberg should be able to get something out of this game tonight, Jonkoping are not exactly match winner's at the moment and should find it difficult to win tonight, plus the home advantage here is invisible, other than the visitors travelling a little, it's not an issue in these 2nd tier European leagues with teams of fairly equal quality.

Yeah, good luck this. I see Pandev is out tonight and Ibrahimovic starts. Sweden should cover -1.5 imo. I have a rule that I don't play friendlies. Good luck though, looks solid.

[Vaughany]

Nice play on Falkenburgs

[stemellor]

Nice play on Falkenburgs

Thanks. I'm on the right end of a red card for a change

[burkestar]

BOL mate. I've got an even easier version of this. Falkenberg and draw (Double Chance) @ 1.50 which i have paired in a double with Sweden -1 and -1.5. Hope they keep it solid today. About the Sweden game, as it is a friendly anything can happen. But Macedonia are usually very poor in friendlies, plus they are missing their main stars which for a team like them is a huge blow. I'm sure all other factors are quite visible to everyone, so they should pull it off. And Falkenberg should be able to get something out of this game tonight, Jonkoping are not exactly match winner's at the moment and should find it difficult to win tonight, plus the home advantage here is invisible, other than the visitors travelling a little, it's not an issue in these 2nd tier European leagues with teams of fairly equal quality.

hey did u watch the sweeden game, if so howd they look, u rate them a chance against austria in upcoming world cup qualifiers

[Akatana]

hey did u watch the sweeden game, if so howd they look, u rate them a chance against austria in upcoming world cup qualifiers

Yes, i watched it. Sweden were pretty solid overall. Created lot's of clear scoring chances. But there is one problem with Sweden and that is the players that surround Ibrahimovic. They are just not congruent enough with him, if i were to back side's between Austria and Sweden, i would lean towards Austria, they as a team are much more consistent and solid right now than Sweden! but don't underestimate Sweden, i just think they will have a really hard time in Austria.

[Vaughany]

Tempted to play draw in austria game. Or austria pk

[Vaughany]

Also like Montenegro pk at home to ukraine. Is vucinic injured still or something? Jovetic out? Very hard to beat at home and beaten ukrainevaway already

[stemellor]

This one contains a bit of speculation, but if correct will represent real value.

Colombia Apertura - Millonarios vs Alianza Petrolera
Taking a risk that Millonarios are going to play youngsters/reserves tonight. They qualified for the playoffs this weekend without playing, so this is effectively a meaningless game for them now. Millonarios are in good form at the moment, but the -1 line looks far too high on them.
At first glance Alianza have nothing to play for as nobody is relegated during the Apertura. However, Colombia operate a relegation system similar to that of Argentina where the results of the last 3 seasons are aggregated, with teams relegated at the end of the Clausura. Alianza are curently threatened with relegation and need these points tonight to improve their chances of staying in the league. I'm told Alianza have a number of injured players tonight, but I'm going to take the risk here and play them as they have all the motivation for points tonight.

Taken Alianza +0.25 @ 3.00 on Bet365. Risking 1u.

Alianza take the win with an 89th minute goal. Finished 2-1.
Falkenberg also recorded a 4-2 win.
Excellent day with 2 away wins. +3.2 units.

Overall record now 43.5-36-4.5. +18.2u.

[onemoregoal]

Godly call for the Colombia game..

[stemellor]

Godly call for the Colombia game..

Thanks - got to say I was particularly pleased with this one. The bet was only losing for 3 minutes during the whole game.

[stemellor]

4 June

I've been mulling this one over for quite a while now. Decided to play it in the end:

WCQ Asia: Japan vs Australia:
There is a history of draws between these 2 teams in Japan in WCQ and looking at motivation a draw seems to suit both teams. Japan need 1 point to confirm World Cup Qualification and a point will take Australia level with Jordan in the second and last automatic qualification place.

Australia then have a home fixture with Jordan and then home to Iraq, so a draw here puts Australia as the clear favourite to take the second place in the group.

1-1 looks a really good scoreline to me in this game, but the 0-0 is also a real possibility if both teams decide early on that a draw is a good result.

Taken a draw @ 3.26 on Pinny. Risking 1u.

[Johndrama]

tailed

[Vaughany]

Niiiice. mckay to thank for tht one, whatba dipshit!

[stemellor]

tailed

Got to love Honda! 90th minute penalty. Were you brave and took the 1-1?

[Johndrama]

Nah, woke up pissed, being raped everyday for the last 4 days by los angeles angels and came here to see what's up, saw the draw and grabbed it live @ 2.6.
When australia scored I grabbed the popcorn and was like " well stemellor said it's 1-1 so...." *head spin*

[stemellor]

I've been mulling this one over for quite a while now. Decided to play it in the end:

WCQ Asia: Japan vs Australia:
There is a history of draws between these 2 teams in Japan in WCQ and looking at motivation a draw seems to suit both teams. Japan need 1 point to confirm World Cup Qualification and a point will take Australia level with Jordan in the second and last automatic qualification place.

Australia then have a home fixture with Jordan and then home to Iraq, so a draw here puts Australia as the clear favourite to take the second place in the group.

1-1 looks a really good scoreline to me in this game, but the 0-0 is also a real possibility if both teams decide early on that a draw is a good result.

Taken a draw @ 3.26 on Pinny. Risking 1u.

+2.3u from this.

Overall record now 44.5-36-4.5. +20.5 units.

[stemellor]

7 June

WCQ - Sudan vs Ghana:

Ghana and Zambia are fighting for the qualification spot in this group of 4. Zambia beat Ghana 1-0, so Ghana know they need to beat Zambia at home and realistically have to beat Sudan and Lesotho to qualify now.
Zambia beat Sudan 3-0 away from home and Ghana beat them 4-0 at home in the earlier games. The last time Ghana played Sudan away they won 2-0.

Team news is understandably scarce as Sudan are made up of local players. From what I can find out about about Ghana, the big overseas players of Gyan, Asamoah, Mubarak and Muntari are all named in the squad and no news of injuries.

Taken Ghana -0.5 @ 1.752 on Pinny. Risking 2u. The current line of Ghana -0.75 @ 2.03 is not a bad shout either as I think this will be either 1-0 or 2-0 to Ghana.

[stemellor]

7 June

WCQ - Portugal vs Russia:

I make this a draw between these 2 teams. Russia under Capello have a perfect record in their first 4 games. Capello is an excelent manager at qualification level and very shrewd tactically. Bento is really struggling with Portugal, but I think they will edge Israel out for the play-off spot in this group. Portugal are drawing games at home at the moment and I think this will continue on Friday. Russia will play on the counter and I can see the Russians getting the first goal, with a late equaliser for Portugal.

I think Portugal realistically know they won't take automatic qualification from Russia, so a draw here keeps Portugal in touch with Israel and Russia as clear favourites. Ultimately, a draw is a pretty good result for both teams here as Portugal play Israel at home later in the group. I was originally looking at Russia +0.5 as the value play, but I really can't see Portugal allowing themselves to get beaten at home.

Taken a draw @ 3.48 on Pinny. Risking 0.5u.

[stemellor]

6 June

Sweden Superettan - Brage vs GAIS:
I was intending on playing GAIS here as Brage have been awful this season and GAIS are performing well. They did lose their last game away heavily to Falkenberg and won the 2 previous two away. Brage are a much better team than this and they will start to perform better. I was going to play Brage +0.25, but they had 2 red cards in their last match and will therefore have 2 suspensions (midfielder and striker). This might not necessarily be the spot for Brage to start winning therefore. The odds on a draw are currently around 3.48 on Pinny. I give the draw around a 30% chance of happening, so no real value here.

What did catch my attention was that Brage have had 80% of their games at home go under 2.5 goals. Brage play on the dreaded artificial surface and it looks like the teams who are used to playing on grass struggle to score here. Brage have also been very organised, on the whole at the back. They lost the last game heavily, but were down to 9 men for a large period of the second half. GAIS play at home on grass and average 1.2 goals scored away this year. With Brage's suspensions and low scoring games I can see them shutting up shop and keeping this game tight. Combining this with the surface I have taken the under in this game, which I think represents good value. I was expecting the line to be u2.25 goals.

Taken u2.5 goals @ 1.901 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u.