Ste's plays

[stemellor]

Sweden Superettan - Brage vs GAIS:
I was intending on playing GAIS here as Brage have been awful this season and GAIS are performing well. They did lose their last game away heavily to Falkenberg and won the 2 previous two away. Brage are a much better team than this and they will start to perform better. I was going to play Brage +0.25, but they had 2 red cards in their last match and will therefore have 2 suspensions (midfielder and striker). This might not necessarily be the spot for Brage to start winning therefore. The odds on a draw are currently around 3.48 on Pinny. I give the draw around a 30% chance of happening, so no real value here.

What did catch my attention was that Brage have had 80% of their games at home go under 2.5 goals. Brage play on the dreaded artificial surface and it looks like the teams who are used to playing on grass struggle to score here. Brage have also been very organised, on the whole at the back. They lost the last game heavily, but were down to 9 men for a large period of the second half. GAIS play at home on grass and average 1.2 goals scored away this year. With Brage's suspensions and low scoring games I can see them shutting up shop and keeping this game tight. Combining this with the surface I have taken the under in this game, which I think represents good value. I was expecting the line to be u2.25 goals.

Taken u2.5 goals @ 1.901 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u.

Brage will be in real trouble this season if they can't keep 11 men on the field. -1.1 units from this pick.

Overall record 44.5-37-4.5. +19.4 units.

[stemellor]

8 June

Sweden Superettan - Ljungskile vs Angelholms:
I've got this as a 32% chance of being a draw. Ljungskile are big favourites, but have not beaten Angelholms since 2009. With the odds being given, the draw has good value.

Taken the draw @ 3.68 on Pinny. Risking 0.5u.

USA MLS - NER vs DC United

This looks great value for a NER win. NER off the back of 3 straight wins and a huge win against LA on Sunday. DC have lost 4 of the last 5 and I can't look past a NER win. Only thing that worries me is that DC won all 3 games last season between the 2. I'm taking recent form though here and taking:

NER -0.5 @ 1.893. Risking to win 1u.

[stemellor]

10 June

Sweden Superettan - Hammarby vs Varberg:

I have this as a 32% chance of a draw. Hammarby will have Bjork suspended after his red card in the last game. Only 2 draws all season for these 2 teams, which is why the odds are so good. 2 team right next to each other in the league and both games last year between the 2 were a draw. I have this coming out as a draw.

Taken the draw @ 4.02 on Pinny. Risking 0.5u.

[bosigga]

With you on Ghana, not watching the game but they are up 2-1 while being down a man. Let's hope they can close it out. 20 minutes left.

[bosigga]

Ended 3-1. Cheers!

[stemellor]

With you on Ghana, not watching the game but they are up 2-1 while being down a man. Let's hope they can close it out. 20 minutes left.

It didn't look good down to 10 men in the heat! Well done black cats.
+1 unit for the day as Portugal won 1-0.

Overall record now: 45.5-38-4.5. +20.4u

[stemellor]

Sweden Superettan - Ljungskile vs Angelholms:
I've got this as a 32% chance of being a draw. Ljungskile are big favourites, but have not beaten Angelholms since 2009. With the odds being given, the draw has good value.

Taken the draw @ 3.68 on Pinny. Risking 0.5u.

USA MLS - NER vs DC United

This looks great value for a NER win. NER off the back of 3 straight wins and a huge win against LA on Sunday. DC have lost 4 of the last 5 and I can't look past a NER win. Only thing that worries me is that DC won all 3 games last season between the 2. I'm taking recent form though here and taking:

NER -0.5 @ 1.893. Risking to win 1u.

I'm going to add my last play today:
U21 Championships - England vs Norway
Just about a must win game tonight if England are going to progress. England could draw and still progress, but they will not want to play the hosts Israel needing a win in the next game. England are the far better team. They beat Norway home and away in the qualification for the tournament and have won 9 of the last 11 U21 games.
England were pretty awful against Italy, who were far the better team. England will have Danny Rose and Tom Ince back tonight though and it's probable Zaha will play at some point. Even if he doesn't make it, Nathan Redmond has been impressive on the right wing, but I would be hopeful Zaha starts as he's England's best attacker.

Taken England ML @ 1.85 on Bet365. Risking to win 2u.

[swordsandtequila]

I'm going to add my last play today:
U21 Championships - England vs Norway
Just about a must win game tonight if England are going to progress. England could draw and still progress, but they will not want to play the hosts Israel needing a win in the next game. England are the far better team. They beat Norway home and away in the qualification for the tournament and have won 9 of the last 11 U21 games.
England were pretty awful against Italy, who were far the better team. England will have Danny Rose and Tom Ince back tonight though and it's probable Zaha will play at some point. Even if he doesn't make it, Nathan Redmond has been impressive on the right wing, but I would be hopeful Zaha starts as he's England's best attacker.

Taken England ML @ 1.85 on Bet365. Risking to win 2u.

I took England -.5/-1 @ +107. Good luck, 2-0 works for both of us

[stemellor]

9 June

Japan J League 2 - Roasso vs Kyoto Sanga:

Kyoto Sanga were badly beaten in the last game by the third bottom club, at home. This is an ideal spot to get a value pick on them as Kyoto are a far better team away from home, in fact winning over 60% of their games away from home this season. Roasso have lost a similar number of games at home and I'm backing Kyoto to bounce back here and carry on their good away form.

Kyoto have won the last 3 matches the between the 2 sides (2 of these games were away) and I have Kyoto with around a 50% chance of winning. The odds therefore represent really good value.

Taken Kyoto Sanga -0.5 @2.23 on 188bet. Risking 1u.

[stemellor]

I took England -.5/-1 @ +107. Good luck, 2-0 works for both of us

Good to hear. I'm English, so good to know I'm looking at this objectively.

[stemellor]

Japan J League 2 - Roasso vs Kyoto Sanga:

Kyoto Sanga were badly beaten in the last game by the third bottom club, at home. This is an ideal spot to get a value pick on them as Kyoto are a far better team away from home, in fact winning over 60% of their games away from home this season. Roasso have lost a similar number of games at home and I'm backing Kyoto to bounce back here and carry on their good away form.

Kyoto have won the last 3 matches the between the 2 sides (2 of these games were away) and I have Kyoto with around a 50% chance of winning. The odds therefore represent really good value.

Taken Kyoto Sanga -0.5 @2.23 on 188bet. Risking 1u.

WCQ Africa - Mali vs Rwanda:
Mali level with Algeria and will be keen for 3 points here. Rwanda are bottom with just 1 point from 3 games. Mali are a much better team and beat Rwanda 2-1 away. The Mali call ups look strong and are virtually the same as the team who won in Rwanda. One notable call up was Diabate from Bordeaux who looks a real handful when I've watched him play. With home advantage and a strong team I expect a comfortable win.

Taken Mali -1.5 @ 1.877 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u.

[swordsandtequila]

Good to hear. I'm English, so good to know I'm looking at this objectively.

England really sh*t the bed today, dominated possession but Norway finished when they had the chances. Doubled down on Italy so all wasn't lost, still disappointing. Get 'em next time.

[stemellor]

England really sh*t the bed today, dominated possession but Norway finished when they had the chances. Doubled down on Italy so all wasn't lost, still disappointing. Get 'em next time.

Yeah, agree completely. Two great goals from Norway. Was going to do the same with Italy -1 and didn't. Two bad calls from me today.

[stemellor]

I'm going to add my last play today:
U21 Championships - England vs Norway
Just about a must win game tonight if England are going to progress. England could draw and still progress, but they will not want to play the hosts Israel needing a win in the next game. England are the far better team. They beat Norway home and away in the qualification for the tournament and have won 9 of the last 11 U21 games.
England were pretty awful against Italy, who were far the better team. England will have Danny Rose and Tom Ince back tonight though and it's probable Zaha will play at some point. Even if he doesn't make it, Nathan Redmond has been impressive on the right wing, but I would be hopeful Zaha starts as he's England's best attacker.

Taken England ML @ 1.85 on Bet365. Risking to win 2u.

Hoping for a better day today. 0 from 3 yesterday and -3.9u.

Overall record 45.5-41-4.5. +16.5 units.

[stemellor]

Japan J League 2 - Roasso vs Kyoto Sanga:


Kyoto Sanga were badly beaten in the last game by the third bottom club, at home. This is an ideal spot to get a value pick on them as Kyoto are a far better team away from home, in fact winning over 60% of their games away from home this season. Roasso have lost a similar number of games at home and I'm backing Kyoto to bounce back here and carry on their good away form.


Kyoto have won the last 3 matches the between the 2 sides (2 of these games were away) and I have Kyoto with around a 50% chance of winning. The odds therefore represent really good value.


Taken Kyoto Sanga -0.5 @2.23 on 188bet. Risking 1u.

WCQ Africa - Mali vs Rwanda:
Mali level with Algeria and will be keen for 3 points here. Rwanda are bottom with just 1 point from 3 games. Mali are a much better team and beat Rwanda 2-1 away. The Mali call ups look strong and are virtually the same as the team who won in Rwanda. One notable call up was Diabate from Bordeaux who looks a real handful when I've watched him play. With home advantage and a strong team I expect a comfortable win.


Taken Mali -1.5 @ 1.877 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u.

Adding my third and probably last play of the day

Finland Ykkonen - Kajaani vs JIPPO:

Looking like really good value on Kajaani here. No previous meetings and media coverage of this league is scarce in terms of any injuries. No suspensions though that I can find for Kajaani. Therefore, based purely on form this season I have Kajaani with around a 65% chance of winning. This might be skewed though as there are no previous meetings. Still, I'm going to play this with 1u as the price looks good here and Jippo are struggling at the bottom of the table.

Taken Kajaani -0.5 @ 2.06 on Bet188. Risking 1u.

[stemellor]

9 June

Big card for me today, last pick though:

Norway Adeccoligaen - Stabaek vs Ranheim:
Stabaek playing well and 7th in the league. 2 wins and 2 draws at home. Ranheim top of the league and have won all 5 games away from home. Ranheim have also beaten 2 of the top 4 away, so have shown they can beat form teams away as well.
No H2H stats and again team news is limited. Ranheim have nobody listed as suspended that I can find.

Odds look really good on Ranheim therefore.

Taken Ranheim DNB @ 2.07 on Pinny. Risking 1u.

[swordsandtequila]

Big card for me today, last pick though:

Norway Adeccoligaen - Stabaek vs Ranheim:
Stabaek playing well and 7th in the league. 2 wins and 2 draws at home. Ranheim top of the league and have won all 5 games away from home. Ranheim have also beaten 2 of the top 4 away, so have shown they can beat form teams away as well.
No H2H stats and again team news is limited. Ranheim have nobody listed as suspended that I can find.

Odds look really good on Ranheim therefore.

Taken Ranheim DNB @ 2.07 on Pinny. Risking 1u.

I took the over (2.75) in this match. Good luck today

[stemellor]

I took the over (2.75) in this match. Good luck today

Looks solid. Two good teams, there should be goals.

I've also caved in and played Hodd vs Vard. Hodd -1.5 @ 2.41. There's some real value out there today. Hope it results in a profit as I've played far more games than normal.

[stemellor]

Bad weekend. Saved slightly by 4.5 units from the Spain U21 game. I didn't post the pick though, so I won't include it.

1 from 5 today, -2.9 units.

Overall record 46.5-45-4.5. +13.6units.

[stemellor]

Sweden Superettan - Hammarby vs Varberg:

I have this as a 32% chance of a draw. Hammarby will have Bjork suspended after his red card in the last game. Only 2 draws all season for these 2 teams, which is why the odds are so good. 2 team right next to each other in the league and both games last year between the 2 were a draw. I have this coming out as a draw.

Taken the draw @ 4.02 on Pinny. Risking 0.5u.

I've got 1 more pick in the Superettan tomorrow:

Landskrona vs Orebro:
Orebro are top and Landskrona are 7th. Orebro look far too short priced in this game though. No suspensions for Landskrona and they have won 50% of their home games. Orebro have only won once away, against bottom club Brage, who they beat 1-0.

I have this coming out as 1-0 to Landskrona, but this is skewed on recent form as there are no recent head to head matches, so this could well be a draw as well.

Taken Landskrona +0.25 @ 1.901 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u.

Adding another pick for tomorrow:
Argentina Clausura - Newells vs Santa Fe:
River Plate moved level on points with NOB today and this is a must win against already relegated Santa Fe. I'm sure NOB wins this, but the odds odds are ridiculously skinny. I considered the -1.5 line, but NOB might well be playing with some nerves as they will be under pressure. Santa Fe have no pressure and this often produces unexpected goals.

7 of the last 9 of NOB's games have gone over in the league and Santa Fe have scored in 5 of the last 6. I can see this ending 2-1 to NOB. The last 3 meetings between the 2 have gone over as well.

Taken O2.5 goals @ 1.971 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u.

[stemellor]

10 June

Adding a tail from another website. The person providing the tip is very profitable in the Norweigian Leagues, so worth a look.

Norway Adeccoligaen - Follo vs Fredrikstad:
Follo have picked up points in all of their last 3 home games and Fredrikstad has lost all their last 3 away. Fredrikstad have big problems tonight with injuries, suspensions and international call-ups. They are missing their joint top scorer as well tonight (Anier).

I don't think Fredrikstad should be odds on favourites tonight and hopefully Follo can at least take a point.

Taken Follo +0.5 @ 1.97 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u.

[swordsandtequila]

Adding a tail from another website. The person providing the tip is very profitable in the Norweigian Leagues, so worth a look.

Norway Adeccoligaen - Follo vs Fredrikstad:
Follo have picked up points in all of their last 3 home games and Fredrikstad has lost all their last 3 away. Fredrikstad have big problems tonight with injuries, suspensions and international call-ups. They are missing their joint top scorer as well tonight (Anier).

I don't think Fredrikstad should be odds on favourites tonight and hopefully Follo can at least take a point.

Taken Follo -0.5 @ 1.97 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u.

Assume you meant +0.5 @ those odds?

[Vaughany]

Yes he means double chance

[stemellor]

Assume you meant +0.5 @ those odds?

Thanks both - yeah +0.5. I'll edit my post.

[Johndrama]

Shame about Follo, really liked that play, you did a good analysis. I was on it aswell, probably the reason why it lost.

[stemellor]

Shame about Follo, really liked that play, you did a good analysis. I was on it aswell, probably the reason why it lost.

Think we're both in a bit of a rut. Hit the 3/1 draw though. Just need goals in the Newells game tonight for a profit.

[stemellor]

11 June

Sweden Superettan - Falkenberg vs GIF Sundsvall:
Really hard to call who wins this one. Falkenberg unbeaten at home this season, but GIF with the clear advantage in H2Hs, winning 5 of the last 6 meetings.
If it's too close to call check the goal markets. In those last 6 games 5 have gone over. 60% of Helsingborg's home games have gone over, with 40% of GIF's away games. I think this one finishes 2-1, I'm just not sure to whom.

Taken o2.5 goals @ 1.95 on 188bet. Risking to win 1u.

[Chevignonmoolah]

Adding a tail from another website. The person providing the tip is very profitable in the Norweigian Leagues, so worth a look.

Norway Adeccoligaen - Follo vs Fredrikstad:
Follo have picked up points in all of their last 3 home games and Fredrikstad has lost all their last 3 away. Fredrikstad have big problems tonight with injuries, suspensions and international call-ups. They are missing their joint top scorer as well tonight (Anier).

I don't think Fredrikstad should be odds on favourites tonight and hopefully Follo can at least take a point.

Taken Follo +0.5 @ 1.97 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u.

Shame about Follo, really liked that play, you did a good analysis. I was on it aswell, probably the reason why it lost.

The home team missed a penalty. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[Johndrama]

Good call with the argentinian over, somewhat tailed it, played the over 0.5 in the 1st half @aprox 20'. Good thing it worked out for both parties

[stemellor]

Good call with the argentinian over, somewhat tailed it, played the over 0.5 in the 1st half @aprox 20'. Good thing it worked out for both parties

Cheers John. Didn't quite pan out as I thought, but 5 goals for NOB was very welcome.

Went 2-2 yesterday, but in profit 0.4 units as the draw hit in the Superettan as well.

Overall record now: 48.5-47-4.5. +14.0 units.

[stemellor]

Sweden Superettan - Falkenberg vs GIF Sundsvall:
Really hard to call who wins this one. Falkenberg unbeaten at home this season, but GIF with the clear advantage in H2Hs, winning 5 of the last 6 meetings.
If it's too close to call check the goal markets. In those last 6 games 5 have gone over. 60% of Helsingborg's home games have gone over, with 40% of GIF's away games. I think this one finishes 2-1, I'm just not sure to whom.

Taken o2.5 goals @ 1.95 on 188bet. Risking to win 1u.

Adding 1 more play for today:

Brazil Serie B - Guaratingueta vs Joinville:
Joinville have 4 wins and 1 defeat this season and come off the back of a good away win at Avai.
Guaratingueta have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 and managed a draw against fellow strugglers America RN on Saturday.
Joinville's keeper Ivan might miss the match through illness, but otherwise it is the same squad who won at Avai.
Joinville won both games last year between the 2, so this game has good value in the odds.

Taken Joinville ML @ 2.4 on Bet365. Risking 0.5u.

[stemellor]

Sweden Superettan - Falkenberg vs GIF Sundsvall:
Really hard to call who wins this one. Falkenberg unbeaten at home this season, but GIF with the clear advantage in H2Hs, winning 5 of the last 6 meetings.
If it's too close to call check the goal markets. In those last 6 games 5 have gone over. 60% of Helsingborg's home games have gone over, with 40% of GIF's away games. I think this one finishes 2-1, I'm just not sure to whom.

Taken o2.5 goals @ 1.95 on 188bet. Risking to win 1u.
Adding 1 more play for today:

Brazil Serie B - Guaratingueta vs Joinville:
Joinville have 4 wins and 1 defeat this season and come off the back of a good away win at Avai.
Guaratingueta have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 and managed a draw against fellow strugglers America RN on Saturday.
Joinville's keeper Ivan might miss the match through illness, but otherwise it is the same squad who won at Avai.
Joinville won both games last year between the 2, so this game has good value in the odds.

Taken Joinville ML @ 2.4 on Bet365. Risking 0.5u.

The Superettan game did finish 2-1, to GIF and Joinville had a good 3-1 victory.
2-0 yesterday and +1.7 units.

Overall record now: 50.5-47-4.5. +15.7 units.

[stemellor]

13 June

Finland Veikkausliiga
Various leans on Finland this week. VPS initially looked amazing value at 3.2 away to bottom club Lahti. This is a no-play for me though as Lahti have just installed a new manager and this usually produces a positive result in the players. Lahti are also starting to get key players back from injury, so I'm really not sure what will happen in this game.

Honka also initially looked really good value away at TPS. However, Honka had a lot of players away with the Finland U21 squad for the 2 recent qualifiers, which puts me off.

The one game that really caught my eye though was HJK vs Inter:
The odds on HJK seem too skinny to me. They have been pretty bad at home this season and are top on their away form. Pressure is mounting on the coach as HJK should win this league easily.

It's fair to say that Inter don't have the best record against HJK. At HJK they have lost 17, drawn 4 and won 2.
However, HJK had asked for this game to be re-arranged because of the proximity to the 2 Finland international games. The request was denied, but HJK are clearly worried about this.
Forssell, Tainio, Sumusalo, Zeneli and Mannstrom were mainly unused substitutes, but Tainio played in the first game and was substituted. He didn't feature in the second game, so I wonder if he was injured? He is a key player for HJK. Demba Savage also travelled to Gambia on Saturday for their loss to Ivory Coast in WCQ.

Inter had 2 players with the Finland U21s, who are now back in training and Sirbiladze who played for Georgia at the weekend. Inter's coach has spoken of how much the break has helped his players after a busy period, something which a lot of the HJK players have not had. Inter are a good side, far better than 7th place suggests and they seemed to have really struggled with fatigue recently.

I'm taking Inter +0.5 @ 2.38 on Pinny. Risking 2u.

[onemoregoal]

Really good info mate. HJK were the same price last season where they were unbeaten at home, but I suppose Inter T are also also struggling.
JJK (3.40) and KuPS (4.20) look too big (both away,) theres usually a lot of upsets - its a fun league to play if you are winning.

[stemellor]

15 June

Argentina - Clausura Week 17 of 19:

Lots of action in Argentina this weekend as we approach the end of the Clausura.

Lanus vs River Plate
Mario Regueiro (acute tendinitis right hamstring) and Angel Lopez Alba (recovered from an operation) are back for Lanus.

River look to be the 11 who played at Independiente.

This looks to be a draw all over with Lanus' current home form and River's away form. Lanus haven't been beaten at home since August 2012 and both teams are fighting to stay in touch with NOB at the top of the league. I see this as a draw as I'm not sure either team have enough to beat each other here.

Draw @ 3.0 on Bet365. 1 unit risked

Independiente vs San Lorenzo
Absolute must win game here for Independiente, or they are relegated. Independiente are one of Argentina's biggest clubs, so this will be a huge shock, similar to when River Plate went down a couple of years ago.
San Lorenzo qualified for the last Copa Sudamericana last weekend, so now have nothing to play for. San Lorenzo have been in good form, but Independiente's need is far greater. The odds on a home win here are really good, so I have taken them.

Independiente @ 2.6 on Coral. Risking 1u.

Argentinos Juniors vs Colon
Odds are dropping fast on Argentinos at the moment. Argentinos are just outside of the relegation zone, but could drop into the bottom 3 if they don't win and San Martin do. Therefore, really a must win game here. Colon have nothing to play for and again, all the motivation is with Argentinos. Argentinos have drawn the last 2 away games and brilliantly beat River Plate in the last home game. Colon have been really bad away recently and have lost 6 of the last 8.
Another point to note here is that Argentinos' and Colon's presidents are both apparently friends.
It looks like Capurro and Figueroa will play for Argentinos after an injury scare. Hernandez might be out, whilst youngster Rinaldi is definitely ruled out.

Taken Argentinos @ 2.4 on Sportingbet. Risking 3u.

San Martin vs Estudiantes
Again, odds are dropping fast on San Martin. San Martin have won their last 4 home games and as above need to win to try and a get out of the relegation zone. Estudiantes have nothing to play for here and San Martin's need for points is far greater. I'm playing this small though as I can't find any team news for San Martin, so hopefully no injuries. Both Landa and Mas were booked in the last game taking them to 7 yellow cards, so I don't think there are any suspensions as Ledesma is back after his red card.

Taken San Martin @ 2.1 on Coral. Risking 1u.

Also have a lean on NOB to get the title won this weekend. I can't quite work out if Atletico de Rafaela are now safe from relegation. If anyone can confirm that would be really useful, as NOB are even money to win, so would be good value against a team with nothing to play for.