The Seer's 2011 NCAAF & NFL thread

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  • The Seer
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 10-29-07
    • 10641

    #981
    Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
    Thx for the info Seer,

    was undecided how to play this game,

    so after reading your post I pounded the Over...........
    I know Temple was giving up less than 2 TDs a game but that was misleading against some teams that can't score as well. I'm really surprised Wyoming's offense has had so much trouble scoring. It's clear the young QB is nervous but I expect them to settle down and have more success in the 2nd half.
    Comment
    • PAULYPOKER
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 12-06-08
      • 36581

      #982
      I hope so........
      Comment
      • shocktopme
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 10-15-10
        • 940

        #983
        .

        Any play on Ohio/Utah St. my friend?
        Comment
        • The Seer
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 10-29-07
          • 10641

          #984
          Originally posted by shocktopme
          Any play on Ohio/Utah St. my friend?
          not since i took Wyoming +24 on a live bet
          Comment
          • The Seer
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 10-29-07
            • 10641

            #985
            Potato Bowl
            Utah St -1 -105 2 units
            Utah St started the year 2-5 with losses to some pretty good teams but they are on a 5 game win streak. This is Ut St's first bowl since 1997. They are 6th in the FBS in rushing. Ohio is appearing in a bowl for a 3rd straight year but has not won one. Frank Solich is 2-6 in bowls, 2-6 ATS including 0-3 ATS as a dog. Ohio lost the MAC championship game the last 2 years. This time they blew a 20-0 lead and lost by a fg as time expired. How motivated can they be here? Utah St will definitely have more fans there. Motivation and location factors give Ut St an advantage.
            Comment
            • shocktopme
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 10-15-10
              • 940

              #986
              Originally posted by The Seer
              Potato Bowl Utah St -1 -105 2 units Utah St started the year 2-5 with losses to some pretty good teams but they are on a 5 game win streak. This is Ut St's first bowl since 1997. They are 6th in the FBS in rushing. Ohio is appearing in a bowl for a 3rd straight year but has not won one. Frank Solich is 2-6 in bowls, 2-6 ATS including 0-3 ATS as a dog. Ohio lost the MAC championship game the last 2 years. This time they blew a 20-0 lead and lost by a fg as time expired. How motivated can they be here? Utah St will definitely have more fans there. Motivation and location factors give Ut St an advantage.
              I like it!!!!!
              Comment
              • The Seer
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 10-29-07
                • 10641

                #987
                Originally posted by shocktopme
                I like it!!!!!
                This was at first going to be a 3 unit play for me but I am in a losing streak and am getting tired of dipping into my positive units.
                Comment
                • jihadvillager
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-25-11
                  • 2134

                  #988
                  Seer we got some backdoor LOVE with the over and +24 unbelievable 2 pt CONV- you not worried about the line movement on utah/ohio?
                  Comment
                  • The Seer
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 10-29-07
                    • 10641

                    #989
                    Originally posted by jihadvillager
                    Seer we got some backdoor LOVE with the over and +24 unbelievable 2 pt CONV- you not worried about the line movement on utah/ohio?
                    I don't like it but I've got to go with the overriding factors. I'm definitely glad we ended up with a split there in the last game. It felt like a win.
                    Comment
                    • jihadvillager
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-25-11
                      • 2134

                      #990
                      the days still young!- utah state +1 now. wow- edit ok back to -1 now- i need to stop refreshing my lines. ride till we die.
                      Comment
                      • The Seer
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 10-29-07
                        • 10641

                        #991
                        Originally posted by jihadvillager
                        the days still young!- utah state +1 now. wow- edit ok back to -1 now- i need to stop refreshing my lines. ride till we die.
                        It's swinging back.
                        adding another unit at Utah st pick -110
                        Comment
                        • The Seer
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 10-29-07
                          • 10641

                          #992
                          This Ohio defense is going to be gased. I think once Utah St settles in from shooting them selves in the foot, they can blow this game wide open. If the total keeps dropping, it might be time to nail the over too.
                          Comment
                          • jihadvillager
                            SBR MVP
                            • 11-25-11
                            • 2134

                            #993
                            o/u 59 live 3:31 1Q
                            Comment
                            • The Seer
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 10-29-07
                              • 10641

                              #994
                              Originally posted by jihadvillager
                              o/u 59 live 3:31 1Q
                              I think I'm going to pass. I like our position so far. No need to get greedy. We have alot of games to go. La Lafayette is going to be another 3 unit play it looks like. It would be for sure at +7 but will be at least 2 units either way.
                              Comment
                              • The Seer
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 10-29-07
                                • 10641

                                #995
                                Tonight's games:
                                NFL
                                Tampa Bay +8 1 unit
                                over 46.5 2 units
                                TB is giving up 28.5 pts per game, 2nd worst in the NFL right behind the Colts. Dallas is 16th at 21.6. The Cowboys are 10th in scoring offense and TB is 26th. Both teams have had one less day to prepare for this game which should slightly favor TB. TB's defense has given up 35 points in 4 of their last 5 games including 41 to a bad Jax offense. Both teams have gotten better the last 3 weeks offensively in the Redzone. In those games in the redzone, Dallas has scored TDs at a 67% rate and TB at 75%. Also, interestingly, since 2003, late season home dogs of 8+ during weeks 15,16,17 have gone 17-8 (68%) against the spread (ATS) including a 6-0 mark since 2008. This is most likely due to inflated lines of favorites due to the fact bettors think they will play "harder" to better their position for the post season. Dallas has failed to cover their last 5 as road favorites. Although TB has been bad lately, I think 8 is too much for a Dallas team that is in a sandwich spot coming off a division game vs NYG and having another division game next vs Philly. TB should play better in this national spotlight game.

                                NCAAF
                                Louisiana Lafayette +6 -105 2 units
                                La Laf ML +195 1 unit
                                over 59 1 unit
                                The Ragin’ Cajuns are 7-0 ATS as underdogs this year. The over has gone 8-4 overall, 4-1 in their last five games. SDS is 3-5 ATS in eight games as a favorite this year. This is the first bowl game for La Lafayette in 41 yrs. On top of that is in their home state. They have sold 3 different allotments of tickets to this game. La L will be loading the box versus SDS Ronnie HIllman forcing Ryan Lindley to throw the ball. His completion % is just over 52 this year. LL QB Blaine Gautier has thrown for 2,488 yards, 20 touchdowns and five interceptions and should be tough to stop. Both teams should have trouble stopping each other and the Superdome's turf field should help the over but I think there is just too much going in LL's favor in this one.
                                Comment
                                • gummo
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 09-04-06
                                  • 6297

                                  #996
                                  Got any NFL props for tonight?
                                  Comment
                                  • The Seer
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 10-29-07
                                    • 10641

                                    #997
                                    Originally posted by gummo
                                    Got any NFL props for tonight?
                                    none
                                    Comment
                                    • jihadvillager
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 11-25-11
                                      • 2134

                                      #998
                                      tough beat on the utah. state/ ohio game. we need the night games.
                                      Comment
                                      • The Seer
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 10-29-07
                                        • 10641

                                        #999
                                        Originally posted by jihadvillager
                                        tough beat on the utah. state/ ohio game. we need the night games.
                                        This has been the craziest year I've ever seen. It's probably shaved 5 years off of my life. I'm about ready to take what's left of the units I'm up and call it a year. I knew Utah State not getting a fg on the next to last drive would come back and bite us in the ass.
                                        Comment
                                        • jihadvillager
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-25-11
                                          • 2134

                                          #1000
                                          we missed a short FG at the end of the 1h too. cant change the past now though.
                                          Comment
                                          • jihadvillager
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-25-11
                                            • 2134

                                            #1001
                                            everyones going to bet SDSU 2h cause of their history. lets hope this holds up.
                                            Comment
                                            • jihadvillager
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 11-25-11
                                              • 2134

                                              #1002
                                              what an end to a great game. covered our over too and the ML !!! i think you're due for NFL gonna be tailing tomorrow for sure if you are still posting
                                              Comment
                                              • The Seer
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 10-29-07
                                                • 10641

                                                #1003
                                                NFL early games
                                                I bet these 2 units each:
                                                Washington +7 -125
                                                Indianapolis +7-115
                                                Kansas City +13


                                                I think there is a good chance GB goes down today
                                                Comment
                                                • The Seer
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 10-29-07
                                                  • 10641

                                                  #1004
                                                  adding:
                                                  1 unit each
                                                  Carolina +6
                                                  Buffalo -1
                                                  Comment
                                                  • The Seer
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 10-29-07
                                                    • 10641

                                                    #1005
                                                    adding:
                                                    .5 unit
                                                    KC ML +490
                                                    Comment
                                                    • jihadvillager
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 11-25-11
                                                      • 2134

                                                      #1006
                                                      Thank you seer
                                                      Comment
                                                      • The Seer
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 10-29-07
                                                        • 10641

                                                        #1007
                                                        adding:
                                                        2nd half St Louis +6-120 1 unit
                                                        Comment
                                                        • The Seer
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 10-29-07
                                                          • 10641

                                                          #1008
                                                          adding:
                                                          2nd half Seattle pick 1 unit
                                                          Comment
                                                          • The Seer
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 10-29-07
                                                            • 10641

                                                            #1009
                                                            afternoon games:
                                                            1 unit each
                                                            Denver +7.5
                                                            Oak/Det over 47.5
                                                            Cleveland +6
                                                            Philly -3
                                                            Comment
                                                            • jihadvillager
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 11-25-11
                                                              • 2134

                                                              #1010
                                                              do you like oakland at all Seer?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • jihadvillager
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 11-25-11
                                                                • 2134

                                                                #1011
                                                                killed it this morning - someone call a hearse- sick call on KC. you're a madman seer
                                                                Comment
                                                                • The Seer
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 10-29-07
                                                                  • 10641

                                                                  #1012
                                                                  Originally posted by jihadvillager
                                                                  do you like oakland at all Seer?
                                                                  I did have a lean on Oakland. They are back home after alot of road games. You might find a decent live bet.

                                                                  Glad you cashed a nice ticket on KC.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • jihadvillager
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 11-25-11
                                                                    • 2134

                                                                    #1013
                                                                    thank you seer- i think the only ones we lost this morning was bills and rams 2h- good capping! - still early in the day but it looks like the books are cleaning up today.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • grizzy
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 09-18-11
                                                                      • 209

                                                                      #1014
                                                                      Great day! Any play's for the Sunday nighter?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • The Seer
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 10-29-07
                                                                        • 10641

                                                                        #1015
                                                                        Originally posted by grizzy
                                                                        Great day! Any play's for the Sunday nighter?
                                                                        It looks to be a 9-3 day, picking up over 10 units today.

                                                                        Only 1 bet for tonight. No props.
                                                                        San Diego +3 -130 1 unit
                                                                        SD is 17-2 under Norv Turner in December and they look to be rounding into form as of late. Baltimore is banged up and have laid a few eggs on the road this season.
                                                                        GL I'll be out for the night.
                                                                        Comment
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