The Seer's 2011 NCAAF & NFL thread

[The Seer]

tough luck w/ hasselbeck being out and even then we had a few chances.

thought they outplayed the saints but they blew it when it counted

omg. kolb out now.

tough day for injuries, hard to account for that

[The Seer]

live bet Denver -3 1 unit

[The Seer]

2nd half Buf +3 +105 1 unit

[jihadvillager]

interested to see your take on the late game. a lot of people on the value with the +4.5, but others are on cowboys with the shady line movement/public %'s

[The Seer]

interested to see your take on the late game. a lot of people on the value with the +4.5, but others are on cowboys with the shady line movement/public %'s

night game:
Dal -3 -140 1 unit
over 50 1 unit
The return of Miles Austin is huge for the Dallas offense. Dallas is 5-1 at home. NYG are 3-3 on the road.
The Giants inability to run the ball effectively will help this game go over and with Demarcus Ware and co. pressuring Eli into a few turnovers. 5 of the last 6 times these teams have played the total has gone over.

still looking at props.

[jihadvillager]

Thanks seer - appreciate tw heads up sometimes my props go down early

[The Seer]

Thanks seer - appreciate tw heads up sometimes my props go down early

this is the props I bet:
Murray over 75.5 -125 1 unit
over 4 total sacks -140 2 units
Bradshaw under 70.5 rushing and receiving +110 1 unit

[The Seer]

added another unit on
Dal -3 -145

[jihadvillager]

All our guys getting hurt today Murray kolb hasslebeck lol

[The Seer]

All our guys getting hurt today Murray kolb hasslebeck lol

Murray had 25 yards when he got hurt. It should have covered easy. Since then Jones has picked up 80. We've had tough luck with injuries today. At least Bradshaw was suspended for a half.

[jihadvillager]

What you got tonight seer?

[gummo]

3773 G.Tate pass receptions over 3 +120*

[RyanLeafOfBets]

Will a team have three consecutive scores?

No +180

[The Seer]

dropped around 8 units yesterday, if it could go wrong then it did

Monday night:
St. Louis +10 -120 2 units
Seattle being a double digit favorite over anybody is ridiculous. Seattle lost another O-lineman, Russell Okung for the season. Bradford will start for St Louis and gives them their best chance. This will division game on primetime be a closer than a couple of weeks ago. Lynch will get his yards vs the leagues worst rushing defense but the Rams will get theirs through the air.
props
St Louis QBs over 210.5 -115 1 unit
St. Jackson over 67.5 yds rushing -120 1 unit
M. Lynch over 105.5 yds rushing -125 1 unit

[The Seer]

Gummo & Leaf, good luck on those

[jihadvillager]

thanks for the picks seer- surprised you're not taking the over with all your over props

[The Seer]

thanks for the picks seer- surprised you're not taking the over with all your over props

I was but these teams are not good in the redzone. They'll kick a few field goals.

[The Seer]

adding:
2nd half St Louis +3 -115 1 unit

[jihadvillager]

horrid play calling. should have been a TD earlier instead of a FG too on 1st and goal at the 1.

[The Seer]

horrid play calling. should have been a TD earlier instead of a FG too on 1st and goal at the 1.

I'm glad this is the last game of the week.

[jihadvillager]

new week wk 15- thursday night, bowl games, saturday night NFL, sunday/monday

[sjm5122]

Tough week seer, hang in there. I have a feeling you will have a prosperous bowl season

[jihadvillager]

Looking forward to any plays you have today if any props my books usually remove props 5min before the game itself goes off

[The Seer]

Been working hard on bowl games. I've been reading local team articles, combing over stats, and looking at trends, etc. We shall see starting Saturday but I am really confident.

Thursday night:
under 42 2 units
Jacksonville +14 -125 1 unit
In the 26 games these teams have played this year, the UNDER is 19-7. The Falcons rank 14th in the NFL in scoring (23.1 pts/gm) while the Jaguars rank 28th (14.8 pts/gm). Jacksonville has gone over twice in their last 8 games. Atlanta had played in 8 straight games that went UNDER until last Sunday.
We also have another team laying double digits. Seattle's win and cover on Monday has probably helped inflate this line to 2 Tds. Bettors aren't scared to lay those points and they are doing so but that isn’t a profitable long-term strategy. Players on the bad teams will still be going hard every week. They are playing for their paychecks and bonuses and roster spots. Some of this has nothing to do with this Atl team but the Falcons have only been a favorite by double digits 11 times in the past 23 years. They are 3-8 ATS. Double-digit favorites have been poor this season at 12-17-2 against the spread and 4 have lost outright. I've also read some info on interim coaches first 3 games being very profitable. It looks like Jax and under are the plays.
With all of this info though, I have been having a bad feeling about Atl and over so I'm keep these bets modest.
I hope some of this info can help you with your wagers.
I will probably pass on props but am still looking.

[jihadvillager]

Thanks big dog- going to quad up on your bowl plays - jk- tough last couple games- get it back this weekend.

[jihadvillager]

Will you be playing either of the div aa/ div 3 games?

[The Seer]

Will you be playing either of the div aa/ div 3 games?

sorry but no, I haven't had time to look over those games. All my attention this year has been on Div 1.

My goal is to pick up 15-20 units in these bowls.

New Mexico Bowl:
all 1 unit
Wyoming +7
over 51
Pierce over 131.5 rushing yds -125
Wyoming win this game 2 years ago. To summarize this match up: Neither offense should have much trouble scoring but Wyoming's fan base will travel better and they are more familiar with this stadium. Wyoming has played the tougher schedule and their only losses to Nebraska, TCU, Boise, and Utah State (all bowl teams). Temple's Pierce should get his yards though vs a Wyoming Defense that struggles against the run.

[jihadvillager]

Thanks seer- riding hard with you on these bowl games

[The Seer]

Thanks seer- riding hard with you on these bowl games

I would have gone larger on those picks but was staying conservative because of the results of the past week

[Cougar Bait]

What is your YTD Seer?

[jihadvillager]

Possible second half play on wyo if line is favorable? Wyo used to higher elevation and are the deeper squad - temple may be gassed later on

[The Seer]

What is your YTD Seer?

I try to update every 7-10 days.
Here was the last one: http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...l#post12651525
I've had a bad stretch and dropped around 10 units or so since. I'll go ahead and update again before NFL tomorrow.

[The Seer]

Possible second half play on wyo if line is favorable? Wyo used to higher elevation and are the deeper squad - temple may be gassed later on

Yes, you are correct. I debated about putting a first half bet on Temple because od the initial size advantage up front and Wyoming 2nd half but didn't want to have too many bets out on this game. I definitely like 2nd half Wyoming. I think we are fine on the over and Pierce.

[The Seer]

adding:
live bet Wyoming +24 -120 1 unit

[PAULYPOKER]

sorry but no, I haven't had time to look over those games. All my attention this year has been on Div 1. My goal is to pick up 15-20 units in these bowls. New Mexico Bowl: all 1 unit Wyoming +7 over 51 Pierce over 131.5 rushing yds -125 Wyoming win this game 2 years ago. To summarize this match up: Neither offense should have much trouble scoring but Wyoming's fan base will travel better and they are more familiar with this stadium. Wyoming has played the tougher schedule and their only losses to Nebraska, TCU, Boise, and Utah State (all bowl teams). Temple's Pierce should get his yards though vs a Wyoming Defense that struggles against the run.

Thx for the info Seer,

was undecided how to play this game,

so after reading your post I pounded the Over...........