Pavy's Euro 2008 picks

[Shark79]

Damn. I missed your birthday thread, Shark. Happy belated B-Day, bro.

TY Panic!!

I still have a lot of alcohol in my system ... trying to eat as much grease possible today so I can celebrate Fathers Day tomorrow!

[Panic]

sounds like a plan.

[ZXCVBNM123]

Day 8:

Spain over 2 -130 to win $100
Russia over 2 -120 to win $100

Props:

Total Goals on Saturday both games over 4 -120 to win $100
Russia more corners than Greece -0.5 -120 to win $120



At Risk: $490
Balance: $11910

Followed you on the corners, tied thru halftime, unlucky final five minutes corner-wise

[pavyracer]

Followed you on the corners, tied thru halftime, unlucky final five minutes corner-wise

Hopefully, they win some more corners. We need one more goal in this game to have a perfect day.

[pavyracer]

Day 8:

Spain over 2 -130 to win $100 WIN
Russia over 2 -120 to win $100 LOSS

Props:

Total Goals on Saturday both games over 4 -120 to win $100 PUSH
Russia more corners than Greece -0.5 -120 to win $120 WIN



At Risk: $490
Balance: $11910

New Balance: $12480 Net Gain: 24.8%

Still a positive day. Only Pavlyuchenko's stupidity didn't produce more goals for Russia.

[pavyracer]

Day 9:

I have a play on Czech Republic to advance for tomorrow and I will ride it.

I believe that game can go either way. If there is a draw there will be a penalty shootout and that's why the odds for draw are dropping. You can't really say if it is going to be an over or under game because teams will not risk if it's 0-0 first half.

In the Portugal game it will be up to Portugal to win because of no motivation. I think they may let Switzerland get a draw to cheer their home fans. The Portuguese bench players are capable of beating the Swiss as they did against Mexico in 2006 when they were playing a meaningless game.

There will be better betting opportunities in coming days.

[Totolover1409]

I thought there wasnt a penalty shootout for tomorrow's czech and turkey game....?

[TheSensation]

I thought there wasnt a penalty shootout for tomorrow's czech and turkey game....?

There's definitely a shootout in case of a tie. All tiebreakers would be even, so they'd have to go to the shootout.

[Totolover1409]

Alright, what do you think. Czech to advance to quarter-finals?

[Shark79]

Pavs ... I went 3-1 today ... won Spain and over ... Lost Greece but took the under.

GL tomorrow buddy!!

[pavyracer]

Pavs ... I went 3-1 today ... won Spain and over ... Lost Greece but took the under.

GL tomorrow buddy!!

Nice job Sharky. I remember your picks. Always soild. Good luck for tomorrow.

[nasdaq888]

Day 10:

I have a play on Czech Republic to advance for tomorrow and I will ride it.

I believe that game can go either way. If there is a draw there will be a penalty shootout and that's why the odds for draw are dropping. You can't really say if it is going to be an over or under game because teams will not risk if it's 0-0 first half.

In the Portugal game it will be up to Portugal to win because of no motivation. I think they may let Switzerland get a draw to cheer their home fans. The Portuguese bench players are capable of beating the Swiss as they did against Mexico in 2006 when they were playing a meaningless game.

There will be better betting opportunities in coming days.

Yup there will be a penalty shootout if there is still a draw (tie) at the end of the Czech Turkey match.

http://www.uefa.com/newsfiles/19079.pdf

Article 7.08 (page 16/59) clearly stated that.

[Totolover1409]

thanks nasdaq

[nasdaq888]

No problem dude.

[pavyracer]

Day 10:

Austria +1 +140 to win $140
Croatia pk +130 to win $130

At Risk: $200
Balance: $12480

Good Luck

[ZXCVBNM123]

Day 10:

Austria +1 +140 to win $100

That is quite bold

[Shark79]

Wow pavs ... we have the opposites 2day!

GL on ur picks ... I did wager low today

Any over/unders for today?

[pavyracer]

Here is my reasoning for picking Austria +1.

This bet can only lose with a two goal win differential by Germany. The Austrians have the home field advantage. The Austrians have played better than Croatia on game one and lost on a disputed penalty kick by 1-0. They played better than Poland and the result was fair because Poland's goal was offside and Austria's penalty wasn't. Austria plays tight games. Germany advances with a draw. The Austrians have nothing to lose from this game and the Germans will be under immense pressure because losing in not an option for them.

No overs/unders Sharky until I see the starting line-ups and coaches formations.

[ZXCVBNM123]

You see I think it's the complete opposite for me.

I'm picking Germany -1 1/2 +124

1. Germany outclass Austria all over the field, multiple times.

2. They are looking to get a monkey off their back after their lackluster performance against Croatia.

3. Things have developed and since Austria MUST win to go through they will have to open up at the back, something they didn't do against Poland or Croatia. Germany will pick that defense apart, the only question here is if/when Germany will score the first goal. After that all bets are off and Germany will run Austria off the pitch.

The thing here is that I can be completely, horrifically, catastrophically wrong

[pavyracer]

The following are Germany's qualifying results for Euro 2008. I have omitted the San Marino wins as well as the Cyprus home win for obvious reasons. They are clearly in decline in their last 3 games in which they did not even score a goal meaning they struggle against tight defenses.

02/09/06 v Republic of Ireland (H) 1 - 0
11/10/06 v Slovakia (A) 4 - 1
15/11/06 v Cyprus (A) 1 - 1
24/03/07 v Czech Republic (A) 2 - 1
06/06/07 v Slovakia (H) 2 - 1
08/09/07 v Wales (A) 2 - 0
13/10/07 v Republic of Ireland (A) 0 - 0
17/10/07 v Czech Republic (H) 0 - 3
21/11/07 v Wales (H) 0 - 0

[McBa1n]

Sharp play on Austria, for sure. GL. A goal at home and better than even money is pretty sweet. Hard not to think Germany will find a way to win, though. My gut says 'push'. Germany is definitly down.

[pavyracer]

Quarterfinal between Croatia - Turkey:

Croatia -190 to advance to win $500

At risk: $950

I will update the balance later. I wanted to jump on early on this before odds drop more. It appears that Turkey is battered really bad after Czech Rep. game and will miss up to 7 starters through injury and suspension whereas Croatia will be cruising today.

[Shark79]

-190 for Croatia? Wow ... seems Turkey yet has no respect in this tourney.

[pavyracer]

-190 for Croatia? Wow ... seems Turkey yet has no respect in this tourney.

Sharky, that's to advance including overtime and penalty shootout if needed.

I would like to personally thank McBa1n for bringing this to my attention.

[Shark79]

Sharky, that's to advance including overtime and penalty shootout if needed.

I would like to personally thank McBa1n for bringing this to my attention.

It makes sense now.

[pavyracer]

Day 10:

Austria +1 +140 to win $100 PUSH
Croatia pk +130 to win $100 WIN

At Risk: $200
Balance: $12280

Good Luck

Another positive day. I will update the balance later. Grab Portugal to advance next round as soon as odds are out. Germany is pathetic.

New Balance: $12610 Net Gain: 26.1%

[pavyracer]

Quarterfinal between Portugal - Germany:

Portugal -130 to advance to win $500

At risk: $650

I'm posting this one also early because the odds will be dropping soon. I can't believe the gifts I'm seeing in this tournament.

[Shark79]

will get into it also pavs


Nice line u got there.

[TheLock]

Thanks for the heads up on Portugal.

Any early thoughts on Italy/France?

I think Italy looked much sharper this week and see a 2-0 final.

[pavyracer]

Thanks for the heads up on Portugal.

Any early thoughts on Italy/France?

I think Italy looked much sharper this week and see a 2-0 final.

Wait to see the starting line ups for this game. There are reports that there is unrest in the French team. Possible punches were thrown at practice. On the other hand, these two don't like each other. Anyone remember Zidane/Materazzi incident?

The over 2 may be a better option even with the juice. I believe the ref will give a penalty kick for each team with ease after they made the blunder to deny an obvious one to France and gave a disputable one against Italy in previous game. These two teams will not go down easily.

[TheLock]

Wait to see the starting line ups for this game. There are reports that there is unrest in the French team. Possible punches were thrown at practice. On the other hand, these two don't like each other. Anyone remember Zidane/Materazzi incident?

The over 2 may be a better option even with the juice. I believe the ref will give a penalty kick for each team with ease after they made the blunder to deny an obvious one to France and gave a disputable one against Italy in previous game. These two teams will not go down easily.

Agreed. Will no doubt be a very intense match. Del Piero needs to start like he did this week. The team had more life.

I like your analysis on the over as well in regards to the penalty kicks.

[McBa1n]

I don't know if Italy is any better with Del Piero. The guy is a stud for his club team, but really a nobody in big games for the national side. I think their problem was mostly fixed the last match, but they just couldn't buy a break. They play a better brand of the game than France does right now. France just doesn't scare me much at all (ok Henry does) like they should. O2 sounds like a good play and I favor Italy by a goal pretty solidly.

BTW, thx for the thread, pavy. It's been fun to watch, win or lose. Reminds me of when I had a roll that was worthwhile to bet - and being disciplined. Good things happen with proper management. It's a good influence on all cappers. I don't give a damn win/lose, it's house money for me and it ain't much at all I'm playin with:>. It's for shits/giggles. Even so, well done, man.

[pavyracer]

I don't know if Italy is any better with Del Piero. The guy is a stud for his club team, but really a nobody in big games for the national side. I think their problem was mostly fixed the last match, but they just couldn't buy a break. They play a better brand of the game than France does right now. France just doesn't scare me much at all (ok Henry does) like they should. O2 sounds like a good play and I favor Italy by a goal pretty solidly.

BTW, thx for the thread, pavy. It's been fun to watch, win or lose. Reminds me of when I had a roll that was worthwhile to bet - and being disciplined. Good things happen with proper management. It's a good influence on all cappers. I don't give a damn win/lose, it's house money for me and it ain't much at all I'm playin with:>. It's for shits/giggles. Even so, well done, man.

Thanks McBa1n. Money management is a must to survive. This is how the sharps get the edge. Also to find the best bet out of these offered even if you have to bet it 5 days ahead and tie your money. I have learned a lot at SBR and refuse to post in any other forum because SBR cares about the bettors not the crooked books.

Kudos to SBR John, Dozer and all the mods and posters that make this place so fun to be around.

[McBa1n]

Yeah - being sharp and winning is fun - what I'm finding is I make a TON more bad decisions by not trying to be - but also I don't spend the time I used to (60 hour weeks versus 1 hour + watching games). But then again, I wanted to take a year or 2 off from seriously betting.. and now it's pissing me off haha. I think I have to get back to work next NFL season, losing sucks. I figured toying around with 100$ freebie bux would be fun - instead it's brutal. Yeah, this site is fun most of the time - it's even more fun when the international competition rolls around.

It is really amazing, though, how much harder it is to win without all the work in the background and lineshopping. Being limited to 1 book and a very finite amount is crippling.

[pavyracer]

Day 11:

As you know I have a $50 bet on Romania to advance at +280 to win $140 so I won't add to this because there are many scenarios involved with Romania advancing. Be careful with Romania ML. It's not as guaranteed as it seems.

Italy over 2 -130 to win $100
France pk +110 to win $55

Props:

A. Mutu to score +200 to win $80
Italy-France offsides under 6.5 -110 to win $100

You already know my thinking regarding Romania. It's up to Van Basten. I like Mutu to score today against a weak defense like Holland's and he needs a goal to redeem himself.

Italy-France I like the over and I explained the reasoning earlier. I picked France as PK because they never lost to Italy in regulation at any competition. I also like the offsides to stay under 6.5 based on the last 4 games these two played which were always under 6.5.

At Risk: $330
Balance: $12280

PS. I will add the Croatia and Portugal bets in balance on game days.