Pavy's Euro 2008 picks

[MJFtheGenius]

Pavy you are full of shit

[McBa1n]

sick price on the portugal game.

[pavyracer]

Day 5:

Portugal ML -125 to win $1000 WIN
Portugal over 2 +100 to win $500 WIN
Switzerland over 2 +100 to win $500 WIN

At Risk: $2250
Balance: $8110

New Balance: $12360 Net Gain: 23.6%

[gizmo2431]

Way to clean up the board...

[pavyracer]

Way to clean up the board...

Thanks gizmo. I hope you made some money today. Look at the other cappers too. They are doing great. Sharky is on fire and SSLP is kicking ass.

[Shark79]

nice plays pavs ... didnt see this thread earlier ...

[PalmerInc]

Croatia O 2½ +140 for $75

[pavyracer]

Day 6:

Germany Draw +240 to win $120
Poland ML +130 to win $130


At Risk: $150
Balance: $12210

[apk2k6]

I took Poland -1/2 (+130)

Lost on Germany earlier, hopefully I'll break even with this.

[pavyracer]

I took Poland -1/2 (+130)

Lost on Germany earlier, hopefully I'll break even with this.

I tread lightly today. After winning $2000 yesterday I threw some peanuts for today's games. I can still come up in the green with Poland winning.

Good luck on your plays bud.

[Shark79]

Germany draw? I personally thought they were capable of taking that game!!

Guess we over estimated those fvks.

[pavyracer]

Germany draw? I personally thought they were capable of taking that game!!

Guess we over estimated those fvks.

Germany is not as good as people think. Croatia beat England twice and England has a good squad. I played the draw thinking that both teams would be satisfied with one point.

[pavyracer]

Day 6:

Germany Draw +240 to win $120 LOSS
Poland ML +130 to win $130 LOSS


At Risk: $150
Balance: $12210

New Balance: $12210 Net Gain: 22.1%

[Shark79]

Murder today ... its all Im saying

[TheLock]

The PK in injury time was laughable at best.

[pavyracer]

The PK in injury time was laughable at best.

The funny thing is that the only ones being helped from this result are the Germans. Makes you wonder after they lost today if draw is the result UEFA wanted to advance the Germans and their fans to the next round.

[Shark79]

The funny thing is that the only ones being helped from this result are the Germans. Makes you wonder after they lost today if draw is the result UEFA wanted to advance the Germans and their fans to the next round.

All they need is a tie next match ... and on they go

[ZXCVBNM123]

Yeah, on the other hand Germany over Austria is a lock.

[HedgeHog]

Pavy likes men in tights, or out of them, too.

[jmac]

The funny thing is that the only ones being helped from this result are the Germans. Makes you wonder after they lost today if draw is the result UEFA wanted to advance the Germans and their fans to the next round.

While the NBa might be fixed not all sports tournaments are. Altho acc. to the rules it was a right decision but they are just inconsequent. it happened 100times during the tourna and all the sudden they receive a pen now. Bit random and thats the bad thing.

[pico]

Pavy likes men in tights, or out of them, too.

bunch of wet, sweaty turks and swiss men running around playing footsy...sounds about right.

[pavyracer]

The only men I like is men like you after I cut their balls off and give them to the pigs for lunch.

Penisman and Hedgecock, you can both get a bear hug and ass rape each other in harmony.

[HedgeHog]

The only men I like is men like you after I cut their balls off and give them to the pigs for lunch.

Penisman and Hedgecock, you can both get a bear hug and ass rape each other in harmony.

Two more of your gay Super Heroes. Don't piss off PenisMan; you don't to see him when he's angry.

[pavyracer]

Day 7:

Italy under 2 +100 to win $100
Netherlands pk -115 to win $200

Futures:

Netherlands to win Group C -200 to win $200
Czech Republic to advance Group A -160 to win $100
Romania to advance from Group C +280 to win $140


At Risk: $840
Balance: $11370

[PalmerInc]

Pavy I agree w/ you:

Romania U 2 -103 $50
Romania +1 -170 for $75
Netherlands PK -119 $50

2T P for $10
Netherlands PK -119
Romania U 2 -103

[pavyracer]

Day 7:

Italy under 2 +100 to win $100 PUSH
Netherlands pk -115 to win $200 WIN

Futures:

Netherlands to win Group C -200 to win $200 WIN
Czech Republic to advance Group A -160 to win $100 LOSS
Romania to advance from Group C +280 to win $140 LOSS


At Risk: $840
Balance: $11370

New Balance: $12400 Net Gain: 24.0%

I will grade the pending games after the games are played.

[SBR Lou]

[Shark79]

Nice work Pavs

[pavyracer]

Thanks guys. Nice picks Sharky. Happy Birthday Sharky!

I'm studying the games for tomorrow. The information I'm getting for tomorrow is that Greece and Russia will be playing 4-3-3 formations which are attacking formations. I like the over 2 in this game as well as over 2 for Spain Sweden game. In 2nd round no under cashed yet as I expected because team play for the needed points, are tired after 1st game and are getting used to the new balls that were introduced for this tourney. I will post my plays after I talk to my European scouts via conference call later tonight.

[pavyracer]

Day 8:

Spain over 2 -130 to win $100
Russia over 2 -120 to win $100

Props:

Total Goals on Saturday both games over 4 -120 to win $100
Russia more corners than Greece -0.5 -120 to win $120



At Risk: $490
Balance: $11910

[HeeeHAWWWW]

I'm studying the games for tomorrow. The information I'm getting for tomorrow is that Greece and Russia will be playing 4-3-3 formations which are attacking formations.

Not necessarily the way Greece play it - their 433 is usually a 451, trying to bore the opponent to death, then nick a goal from a well practiced set piece. Used to work, but now everybody has them figured (they failed to even qualify for WC2006, and Sweden beat them in the first match).

Russia have arguably the best manager in the world (wages paid by dodgy oil bazillionaire), but don't have a great deal of talent in the squad. Worse, their best player Arshavin is suspended. However, they have a terrific record against Greece, and usually beat them (including in EC2004, which Greece won). Defensively, they are usually very well organised, although the talent gap was pretty cruelly exposed by Spain in the first group match. Greece have nobody on the same planet to Spain's twin strikeforce though, and won't be able to do that. Their much more conventional, mono-dimensional style is going to find it really hard to get a goal against a well prepared Russian defence.

Greece need the win more, as they have no chance of winning the final group game against Spain - thus to progress, they must win here. Russia could conceivably draw and then beat Sweden to qualify, although that's not an easy route because Russia's goal difference was really hurt by letting in 4 against Spain. I suspect Hiddink will have told them they really need to win, and against a side as poor as Greece this really should be their aim.

Everyone expects <2.5 goals here, and the odds are a bit rubbish as a result (at best 1.62, aka -161). Of the 1x2 results, I like a draw the most, 3.44 (+244) at pinnies. That's quite generous given the defensive preparation of both sides, and the lack of attacking ability on display.

[pavyracer]

Not necessarily the way Greece play it - their 433 is usually a 451, trying to bore the opponent to death, then nick a goal from a well practiced set piece. Used to work, but now everybody has them figured (they failed to even qualify for WC2006, and Sweden beat them in the first match).

Russia have arguably the best manager in the world (wages paid by dodgy oil bazillionaire), but don't have a great deal of talent in the squad. Worse, their best player Arshavin is suspended. However, they have a terrific record against Greece, and usually beat them (including in EC2004, which Greece won). Defensively, they are usually very well organised, although the talent gap was pretty cruelly exposed by Spain in the first group match. Greece have nobody on the same planet to Spain's twin strikeforce though, and won't be able to do that. Their much more conventional, mono-dimensional style is going to find it really hard to get a goal against a well prepared Russian defence.

Greece need the win more, as they have no chance of winning the final group game against Spain - thus to progress, they must win here. Russia could conceivably draw and then beat Sweden to qualify, although that's not an easy route because Russia's goal difference was really hurt by letting in 4 against Spain. I suspect Hiddink will have told them they really need to win, and against a side as poor as Greece this really should be their aim.

Everyone expects <2.5 goals here, and the odds are a bit rubbish as a result (at best 1.62, aka -161). Of the 1x2 results, I like a draw the most, 3.44 (+244) at pinnies. That's quite generous given the defensive preparation of both sides, and the lack of attacking ability on display.

You are omitting the fact that both teams need only to win today. Greece played 4-3-3 in qualifying games and had many overs with this system. My european scouts at the greek practice tell me that Greece plays with Gekas, Charisteas and Amanatides up front today. Seitarides will not be playing on defense and goalie Nicopolides is awful so that's why I favor the over 2. Pavlychenko from the Russian squad will play and he can score a couple by himself. Russian defense is like a swiss cheese.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Gekas is a left inside-forward, but Amanatides is less easy to place, as he's quite versatile. I've seen him as sole striker for his club and behind a target man, but Rehhagel had him as a right-sided midfielder in the qualifiers (a similar transition to Kuyt at Liverpool and now for the Dutch team).

Thus, they could either be starting 433/451 in the Chelsea mold (ie 451 when off the ball), or a more conventional 442, with a very narrow congested midifeld. Still, regardless of the exact setup, it's a bit more mobile and aggressive than 532

Thanks for the info. I'll add a little >2.5 goals as well, at 2.4 (+140). The price was high to start with (always is with Greece matches), but if Greece opt to press for goals they will be open to effective counters.

Still think the draw is good value though - Russia might settle for that if it's still level midway through the second half. They'll have Arshavin back for the final game, and with him will fancy beating Sweden to qualify in the final match.

[Shark79]

Thanks pavs for the bday mention yesterday!!

GL on ur picks

I going a bit in favor of Greece pulling it off today.

Taking Spain and Greece for win .. and the over on the Spain vrs Sweden and under on the Greece vrs Russia (for me this will be a 1-0 game).

GL today and lets keep on pounding these books!!

[Panic]

Damn. I missed your birthday thread, Shark. Happy belated B-Day, bro.