VegasInsider's Season-Long Golf Thread

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  • Dad
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-26-08
    • 23245

    #176
    Good luck, VegasInsider.
    Comment
    • VegasInsider
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 12-12-10
      • 14593

      #177
      Sorry for the late post fellas, I've had the plays ready since this morning but just forgot. Hopefully you see them in time for tomorrow's tee times. This is the week Tiger wins!

      Arnold Palmer Invitational

      TO WIN

      .5* Tiger Woods +815
      .5* Dustin Johnson +1415

      Tournament Matchups (1* each)

      Fowler (+115) over Rose
      D. Johnson (-115) over McDowell
      Woodland (-130) over Gay
      Villegas (-110) over Cejka
      Comment
      • valaub04
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 02-14-11
        • 549

        #178
        I agree with you onTiger, but one question... if you think he wins why wouldn't you hammer his H2H matchup with Phil? Juice?
        Comment
        • VegasInsider
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 12-12-10
          • 14593

          #179
          I could have taken Tiger in H2H matchups against almost any of the top players in the field, but he was juiced in all of them. I saw odds for Tiger vs. Phil, McDowell, D.Johnson, Rose, Fowler and a couple others.

          Good start so far with Fowler tied for the lead and McDowell/Cejka posting big numbers in the first round.
          Comment
          • VegasInsider
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 12-12-10
            • 14593

            #180
            It's looking like a 2nd round shootout to decide some winners tomorrow...

            Woods +1 (couldn't have driven the ball any worse than today, I think he still has a good number in him)

            Fowler (-3) v. Rose (Even)

            D.Johnson (+5) v. McDowell (+8)

            Woodland (+5) v. Gay (+3)

            Villegas (+5) v. Cejka (+5)
            Comment
            • VegasInsider
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 12-12-10
              • 14593

              #181
              Winners with Dustin Johnson over McDowell and Villegas over Cejka. Woodland shits the bed and loses to Gay. Still have Fowler over Rose pending, looking good so far...but a lot of golf left

              .5 unit wager on Woods to WIN is still alive. .5 unit wager on Johnson to win in the garbage. Up .2 units so far...need Fowler to win his matchup to guarantee a profitable week. Will be rooting hard for Woods this weekend and looking at 3rd/4th round matchups. Stay tuned.
              Comment
              • VegasInsider
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 12-12-10
                • 14593

                #182
                Shell Houston Open - Tournament Matchups

                3* Mickelson +3.5 (-115) over Kuchar

                2* Mickelson (+110) over Schwartzel

                1* Gay (+105) over Levin
                1* Love III (-130) over Cejka
                1* O'Hern (-110) over Gutschewski


                All of these lines are from 5dimes. I've been getting away from The Greek the past few weeks as 5dimes is offering a lot more lines and alternate spreads. With only one week to go until The Masters and Redstone GC starting to play more and more like Augusta, this could be the week from Lefty. I'm putting my chips behind him this week in two wagers. I'll take him SU against Schwartzel, who does have some success in Houston. Although he seems to be struggling to find his form in the United States, he does have a T3 last year at the SHO...which is why Lefty is an underdog here. I'll also take him +3.5 shots over Kuchar, who has been as solid as ever with 5 top-7's in the past 7 starts...but with Augusta looming and Phil not playing horrible as everyone is saying, I'll tee off Thursday at -3.5 under par!

                Other three wagers are just single unit, normal tournament matchups. Fading Levin after his meltdown, jumping on the DL3 bus and hopefully he'll contend to make the cut and Cejka will struggle again. Also taking Nick O'Hern, who has gone very quietly this season and gets matched up again a rather no-name player in this event. I'll take a seasoned vet with short odds.

                For the record, 3 units is the highest value I'll place on a golf wager. I don't believe I've had one yet, and only a couple 2 unit plays.

                Goodluck this week everyone and start looking for The Masters lines!
                Comment
                • Roxxyfish
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 06-26-09
                  • 12066

                  #183
                  watch out for Brendon de Jonge in Shell Houston Open 80/1 this guy have talent will playhim to win,make top5 and top 10
                  Comment
                  • VegasInsider
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 12-12-10
                    • 14593

                    #184
                    Originally posted by Roxxyfish
                    watch out for Brendon de Jonge in Shell Houston Open 80/1 this guy have talent will playhim to win,make top5 and top 10
                    de Jonge has some great value this week in Houston, I agree with you. He's been playing well and Top 10 isn't out of the question by any means. Goodluck with your play.
                    Comment
                    • Dad
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-26-08
                      • 23245

                      #185
                      Good luck, VI.
                      Comment
                      • VegasInsider
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 12-12-10
                        • 14593

                        #186
                        Damn...just saw a typo with the post. Should be DAY vs. Levin, not GAY. He isn't in the field this week...
                        Comment
                        • spankie
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 02-10-11
                          • 9992

                          #187
                          VI are you calling Day a homo?
                          Comment
                          • firehoyt
                            SBR MVP
                            • 12-02-10
                            • 3569

                            #188
                            Anything for today's matchups?!
                            Comment
                            • VegasInsider
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 12-12-10
                              • 14593

                              #189
                              Sorry, fire....I don't have any matchups today. Didn't get a chance to look at them this morning. Tournament matchups are looking soon, so I'll ride it out with those.
                              Comment
                              • VegasInsider
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 12-12-10
                                • 14593

                                #190
                                Looking like a very good week in Houston. As long as Mickelson doesn't shit the bed, looking at 4-1 and hitting both BIG plays. Recap after three rounds...

                                3* Mickelson +3.5 over Kuchar - Mickelson leads 9.5 shots

                                2* Mickelson over Schwartzel - Mickelson leads by 9 shots

                                1* O'Hern over Gutschewski - WINNER

                                1* Day over Levin - WINNER

                                1* Love III over Cejka - LOSER

                                I will update the record after this event.
                                Comment
                                • 99Boxster
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 11-22-10
                                  • 2461

                                  #191
                                  Who's going to won't the masters?
                                  Guess who's stackin' gold and silver? THIS GUY
                                  Comment
                                  • VegasInsider
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 12-12-10
                                    • 14593

                                    #192
                                    Up to date record heading into The Masters:

                                    Tournament Matchups: 25-14-2 (60.9%) +13.45 units

                                    Entire Field Plays (To Win, Top 5, etc): 0-7 -4.5 units

                                    I started playing the 'against the field' wagers early in the season...I don't really play them anymore and it's a miracle to hit one. Better value on them in the majors, so maybe a play this week.
                                    Comment
                                    • VegasInsider
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 12-12-10
                                      • 14593

                                      #193
                                      Going to make more plays than usual, but for smaller amounts on the 'against the field' wagers. Goodluck this week everyone!

                                      Tournament Matchups

                                      2* Goosen (-110) over Furyk
                                      1* Woods (+147) over Mickelson
                                      1* Mahan (-118) over Casey
                                      1* Kim (+120) over Stricker
                                      1* Garcia (+143) over Laird
                                      1* B. Haas (+106) over Crane

                                      Top 10

                                      1* Woods (+105)
                                      .5* Mahan (+285)

                                      To Win

                                      .25* Woods (+1045)
                                      .25* Mahan (+3050)
                                      Comment
                                      • VegasInsider
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 12-12-10
                                        • 14593

                                        #194
                                        Woods has traditionally gotten better as the tournament goes on and he proved today that his swing isn't going to let him down drastically this week. He's hitting A LOT of cuts which means the confidence in his driver is there (hit only one high/right into the trees today, no hooks) and his irons were solid today. I still disagree with his heel-shafted putter (regardless if he's trying to get the toe through the ball) and he should be using the old Scotty that treated him so well in the past. The putter is what holds him back this week, he's already left two shots out there and should have shot 69 without doing anything special. I like this play tomorrow and it's available at 5Dimes. I'm not saying it's a lock, or play of the century or all that bullshit...but in my opinion, it's a very solid play and I've played it.

                                        Tiger Woods (2nd Round Score) UNDER 70.5 (-105)


                                        Goodluck everyone!
                                        Comment
                                        • VegasInsider
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 12-12-10
                                          • 14593

                                          #195
                                          Also adding

                                          Y.E. Yang (2nd Round Score) U70.5 (+135)

                                          1 unit play
                                          Comment
                                          • VegasInsider
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 12-12-10
                                            • 14593

                                            #196
                                            Cash Tiger!!

                                            I really wish Yang did gag on the backnine or it would have been a sweep...

                                            Looking forward to watching Tiger this weekend!
                                            Comment
                                            • VegasInsider
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 12-12-10
                                              • 14593

                                              #197
                                              3* Woods U71.5 -135 (Final Round)
                                              Comment
                                              • VegasInsider
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 12-12-10
                                                • 14593

                                                #198
                                                Valero Texas Open

                                                No tournament matchups this week. Going to just make some plays per round and see what happens. Tough to tell how some of these players will play after The Masters or a week off. Each play before is for the First Round only and is to win 1 unit.

                                                Barnes (-110) over Cabrera
                                                Imada (-120) over Gutschewski (Favorite Play)
                                                Stadler (-120) over Mulroy
                                                Scott (-110) over Laird

                                                Will update the record tomorrow after these matches complete. Goodluck everyone!
                                                Comment
                                                • firehoyt
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-02-10
                                                  • 3569

                                                  #199
                                                  3-1. Good Job. Any for today?!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • VegasInsider
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 12-12-10
                                                    • 14593

                                                    #200
                                                    Took a couple weeks off after The Masters, but back on the grind. Not that much I like this week, interesting course when mid-hitters can compete (Kelly and Toms have won here recently).

                                                    Zurich Classic

                                                    1* Every (-120) over Connell
                                                    1* Henry (-140) over Kelly

                                                    First Round Matchup

                                                    1* Hoffman (-110) over Allenby
                                                    Comment
                                                    • birdmanweezy
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 04-18-10
                                                      • 4635

                                                      #201
                                                      maybe i will follow....any tips on golf handicapping i really have no clue where to look...websites stats ect or what to look for when handicapping....cheers.....go b'ssssss
                                                      Comment
                                                      • VegasInsider
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 12-12-10
                                                        • 14593

                                                        #202
                                                        First place to check is PGATour.com and look for the "expert picks" that are usually posted on Wednesday afternoon. It's a good place to start to see what golf writers are thinking. I know how a lot of the players play at different courses, but it gets tougher when you have slightly weaker fields like this week in New Orleans. Just pay attention to a players recent form and past results at the golf course. I tend to stay away from the players that haven't played well at the course in the past and/or have been missing cuts recently. PGATour.com has all the stats/rankings you'll ever need...they cover everything.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • VegasInsider
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 12-12-10
                                                          • 14593

                                                          #203
                                                          Originally posted by VegasInsider
                                                          Took a couple weeks off after The Masters, but back on the grind. Not that much I like this week, interesting course when mid-hitters can compete (Kelly and Toms have won here recently).

                                                          Zurich Classic

                                                          1* Every (-120) over Connell
                                                          1* Henry (-140) over Kelly

                                                          First Round Matchup

                                                          1* Hoffman (-110) over Allenby
                                                          Winner with Hoffman or Allenby in the first round. Huge lead with Henry after Kelly fired a nice 7-over par 79. Connell has a two shot lead over Every (+1 to +3) going into Friday. Hopefully Every can make a few birdies.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Dad
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-26-08
                                                            • 23245

                                                            #204
                                                            Nice call on Hoffman, VI.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • GoCougs!
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 07-11-10
                                                              • 970

                                                              #205
                                                              Any plays for this weeks tourney?
                                                              Comment
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