Kings Corner (6 Months with the Math Geeks)

iifold · 08-24-10, 11:44 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

These three losses in a row will impress someone...>>>>your bookie!

Made a big mistake betting on this game.. lesson learned..

iifold · 08-24-10, 11:51 PM

Originally posted by iifold

Giants -105

Sanchez has some nice numbers against the Reds..

Wood WILL struggle to shut down the free-swinging hot hitters of the Giants for the simple fact he throws too many strikes and doesn't have dominant stuff...

The Reds are Over Valued thanks to beating up on bad teams all year...

Did I convince you??

16-5 Giants in the 7th, safe to say this is a winner..

I have an idea and would like for one of you stat guys to help me..

There has to be stats that can determine which teams are "free swingers" and which teams are more patient.. Maybe pitchers per at-bat? There has to be others.. Anyone want to help me with this?

want to start tracking pitchers that are constanty in the srtike zone against teams that are considered "free swingers" or not too patient... Im just mumbling now but I hope one of you stat guys understand..

For all I know you guys already have models for this type shit..

Anyone?

jgilmartin · 08-25-10, 12:10 AM

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...br01-bat.shtml <- Brian McCann's 'Batting' page at Baseball Reference. There is one for every player, obviously. You would likely be interested in the Pitch Summary -- Batting* section.

iifold · 08-25-10, 12:23 AM

gonna take me a minute to find my way around that site..

What would be the best stats to determine which starting pitchers are always in or near the strikezone and dont have overpowering stuff? preferably with good ERA's..

(low)K's/9 innings
(low)pitches/inning
???

can any of you find me some guys that fit this criteria?
??

dodger33 · 08-25-10, 01:21 AM

Look no further than bb's per 9 and average pitches per inning

iifold · 08-25-10, 01:58 AM

Originally posted by dodger33

Look no further than bb's per 9 and average pitches per inning

This is what I was thinking.. maybe a low K/9inning ratio as well..

but Id like them to have low ERA's too..

iifold · 08-25-10, 01:09 PM

Goodbye guys,

you guys are either frauds, or can't reveal your secrets like magicians..

In either case, this forum is a waste of space...

Good day,

King

Indecent · 08-25-10, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by iifold

Goodbye guys,

you guys are either frauds, or can't reveal your secrets like magicians..

In either case, this forum is a waste of space...

Good day,

King

Part of this forum is putting in work on your own. You were given more insight into your search (dodger33's response) but you just wanted to know without having to look. You had chance to explore/discover on your own like everyone else, and you failed. You aren't motivated or dedicated, I'd suggest looking those words up.

Simply put, you won't be missed.

G's pks · 08-25-10, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by iifold

Goodbye guys,

you guys are either frauds, or can't reveal your secrets like magicians..

In either case, this forum is a waste of space...

Good day,

King

King...you will be missed....see next post...

G's pks · 08-25-10, 02:19 PM

By no one....

roasthawg · 08-25-10, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by iifold

Goodbye guys,

you guys are either frauds, or can't reveal your secrets like magicians..

In either case, this forum is a waste of space...

Good day,

King

No one is just gonna give stuff away that they worked years to discover. But there is plenty of invaluable stuff in this forum if you take the time to look for it... I often cringe at some of the info that gets revealed here.

iifold · 08-25-10, 03:09 PM

Originally posted by roasthawg

No one is just gonna give stuff away that they worked years to discover. But there is plenty of invaluable stuff in this forum if you take the time to look for it... I often cringe at some of the info that gets revealed here.

so you admit that people are "holding" on to their "secrets"?

Nothing wrong with this, but when people come here to learn you guys should just tell them.. hey, I dont want to give up my secrets.. but these dorks dont do that.. they wait until someone posts something "dumb" and make sure to let everyone know they are "smarter" than the "dumb" poster.. All the while not helping anyone.. Just being another condescending Prick!!

roasthawg · 08-25-10, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by iifold

so you admit that people are "holding" on to their "secrets"?

Nothing wrong with this, but when people come here to learn you guys should just tell them.. hey, I dont want to give up my secrets.. but these dorks dont do that.. they wait until someone posts something "dumb" and make sure to let everyone know they are "smarter" than the "dumb" poster.. All the while not helping anyone.. Just being another condescending Prick!!

Being told when you're wrong or way off base is a form of help in itself.

bztips · 08-25-10, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by iifold

so you admit that people are "holding" on to their "secrets"?

Nothing wrong with this, but when people come here to learn you guys should just tell them.. hey, I dont want to give up my secrets.. but these dorks dont do that.. they wait until someone posts something "dumb" and make sure to let everyone know they are "smarter" than the "dumb" poster.. All the while not helping anyone.. Just being another condescending Prick!!

You obviously didn't come to learn. If you would have taken 2 minutes to peruse the types of threads in this forum, you would have seen that NO ONE uses the TT to just post their daily picks, especially when it's "backed up" with pure speculation and personal opinions like "the free-swinging Giants will have their bats going tonite, they're a great pick". That's what Player's Talk and all the other handicapping forums are for.

I'd give 10-1 that you don't know how to calculate an EV (which IS discussed endlessly here) -- and I'm not just trying to show that everyone else is smarter than you; but it does indicate that you haven't taken the time to learn the basics of a logical math-based approach to betting, which (at least for my relatively short time here) seems to be the only reason this forum exists.

iifold · 08-25-10, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by bztips

You obviously didn't come to learn. If you would have taken 2 minutes to peruse the types of threads in this forum, you would have seen that NO ONE uses the TT to just post their daily picks, especially when it's "backed up" with pure speculation and personal opinions like "the free-swinging Giants will have their bats going tonite, they're a great pick". That's what Player's Talk and all the other handicapping forums are for.

I'd give 10-1 that you don't know how to calculate an EV (which IS discussed endlessly here) -- and I'm not just trying to show that everyone else is smarter than you; but it does indicate that you haven't taken the time to learn the basics of a logical math-based approach to betting, which (at least for my relatively short time here) seems to be the only reason this forum exists.

OK, now were getting somewhere...

I know that the think tank is not about posting plays..

But that Giants info I posted was correct, i told you they would score runs and they did.. 16 of them..

I just wish you could give me some examples of what you do on a daily basis as far as taking advantage of your "math" backround when it comes to betting baseball.. this would be a good start I think..

Or we could just all stop posting in this forum all together since everything has already been covered by the genius' here..

The game is evolving, so your models and theories must evolve with them.. Baseball will drastically change over the next 5 years..

iifold · 08-25-10, 04:13 PM

looks like we have hit a snag again..

If you dont know the sport? where do you even begin to find a "good" line?

can someone please answer this question.. its a serious question. maybe this will open up some dialogue..

jgilmartin · 08-25-10, 04:17 PM

sharpcat · 08-25-10, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by iifold

OK, now were getting somewhere...

I know that the think tank is not about posting plays..

But that Giants info I posted was correct, i told you they would score runs and they did.. 16 of them..

I just wish you could give me some examples of what you do on a daily basis as far as taking advantage of your "math" backround when it comes to betting baseball.. this would be a good start I think..

Or we could just all stop posting in this forum all together since everything has already been covered by the genius' here..

The game is evolving, so your models and theories must evolve with them.. Baseball will drastically change over the next 5 years..

Why didn't you say so

What do think tankers do on a daily basis as far as taking advantage of their math background?...............

addition, subtraction, multiplication, division, binomial and poisson distributions, regression analysis, chi square distributions, z-test, standard deviations, standard errors, means, modes, medians, confidence intervals, populate databases, line shop, calculate EV, etc.etc.........

What do you want to start with egg?

iifold · 08-25-10, 04:53 PM

can you describe how you used any of these related to a sporting event that happened today?

donjuan · 08-25-10, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by iifold

can you describe how you used any of these related to a sporting event that happened today?

Can you use the search function and read?

Flying Dutchman · 08-25-10, 08:10 PM

Guys, quit talking to him...he was going away on his own until he made you feel sorry for his ego-maniac ass...

...he's a total leech...

That Foreign Guy · 08-26-10, 05:24 AM

Originally posted by roasthawg

Being told when you're wrong or way off base is a form of help in itself.

IMO it's the best kind of help because it lets you learn on your own rather than being spoonfed.This leads to actual understanding rather than monkey-copying of something that will get you in worse trouble later.

Peep · 08-26-10, 04:42 PM

Where's infolds picks?

sharpcat · 08-26-10, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by Peep

Where's infolds picks?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/634761-kings-corner-back-where-i-belong.html

This thread is officially closed please let it die

Peep · 08-26-10, 06:22 PM

Sorry Sharpcat.

I just was looking for a quick fade to complete a rollover, it looked like a great pond to go fishing in.

HedgeHog · 08-26-10, 06:34 PM

Thread title should have been titled 6 "Days" with the Math Geeks. The King is dead; long live the Geeks.

iifold · 08-26-10, 07:14 PM

Originally posted by Peep

Sorry Sharpcat.

I just was looking for a quick fade to complete a rollover, it looked like a great pond to go fishing in.

9-0 Dbacks in the 5th..

Howd fading the sharpest all around poster in Forumville go??

Flying Dutchman · 08-26-10, 10:57 PM

leech!

Optional · 09-03-10, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by iifold

looks like we have hit a snag again..

If you dont know the sport? where do you even begin to find a "good" line?

can someone please answer this question.. its a serious question. maybe this will open up some dialogue..

Why not stick with learning techniques for a sport you do know? Much easier.

Spend a bit of time with stats trying to quantify who is on or off the juice, or swinging freely, or some of the other aspects you know and see significance in. Then start a thread asking what sort of mathematical analysis might help you gain more meaning from those numbers.

Regulars in here do seem unhelpful at first, but plenty of people are happy to give away the keys to the farm, if not the farm itself, once they see it isn't a waste of time.