Kings Corner (6 Months with the Math Geeks)

[chipleader]

Very interesting post...I will keep an eye on this to see how it develops. It's got potential, I like some of your ideas and theories iifold.

[iifold]

How many of you Mensa members play poker on the sportsbook sites??

Bookmaker,5dimes,etc. etc..

These have to be +EV if they are to be trusted..

What do you guys think?

[iifold]

Now that I am an official Think-Tanker, I will no longer be betting my points into the SBR Sportsbooks inflated lines..

I will just let my 12 a day pile up and use them to buy Justins book as a showing of good faith..

The King is evolving..

[iifold]

Yankees at Blue Jays (Tuesday)

I'm liking the Blue Jays here.. Remember this Rzepczynski fellow shutting down the Yanks last year, maybe twice, can't remember..

Anyway, what do you think the line will be for this one? I have an idea, just wondering what you guys think it will be..

Side and Total..

Moseley vs. Rzepczynski in Toronto..

[Wrecktangle]

Look at the turn out, many regulars have checked in. This thread certainly has a big potential. It is not uncommon for a troll to start a thread irritating enough some better thinking people into posting something interesting, or at least funny.

"something interesting" OK, there I posted it.

[iifold]

Requested a small cash out from 5dimes today..

First they tell me I have to send them an authoration form (already did this once before with picture of ID)

Then I tell them I would like ** (cheaper than Money Gram) and they tell me if they cancel it for any reason Im shit out of luck..

Why are things so difficult?

5Dimes is an A+ book, a small cashout like this should be a cakewalk, instead it takes me half the day to request one and then they tell me it's "risky" using **..

What's the deal here, so many hoops to jump through..

[WendysRox]

line has moved on both of your plays - in the other direction. Should this worry me?

[iifold]

line has moved on both of your plays - in the other direction. Should this worry me?

Yes it should, Im not having a good day..

Let me see what's going on with this game..

Regardless, I still think the Astros will put up runs today..

[jgilmartin]

line has moved on both of your plays - in the other direction. Should this worry me?

Please, please, please not this argument again.

[iifold]

So does anyone have an opinion about anything??

Or is everyone here afraid to go out on a limb and sound "dumb"?

Somebody say something...

[jgilmartin]

I put the fair total on NY / Tor tomorrow at 9.7

[Pokerjoe]

So does anyone have an opinion about anything??

Or is everyone here afraid to go out on a limb and sound "dumb"?

Somebody say something...

I have sportsbetting opinions several thousand times a year. Before confirming them, I'm briefly afraid I'm being dumb. But if I don't confirm, I'm afraid I'm being dumber. Lose-lose, imo.

[iifold]

I feel like the only cool kid at a grade school dance..

You guys are standing on the wall whispering to one another how stupid I look..

Join the King, Ill show you guys how to "gamble", u guys can show me the right way to gamble...

[iifold]

Although Blanton is a righty, he has drastic left-right movement on his fastball/sinker..it's almost as if he is a lefty throwing a slider. I don't know the stats but Id be willing to bet righties do OK off him...

I'm expecting something from Pence or Lee tonight..

Even put a small amount on Lee +100 vs. Howard (total bases)

let's see what happens..

[jgilmartin]

Looks like no one wants to share their knowledge...

Don't forget there is a lot of knowledge already posted in other threads in this subforum. People aren't going to want to repeat the same info over and over. Also, you'll notice that generally when people ask specific questions rather than just 'hey guys, teach me some stuff', they get further. Just my thoughts.

[iifold]

Last Play: Carlos Lee doubles (23) on a fly ball to center fielder Shane Victorino. Angel Sanchez out at home on the throw, center fielder Shane Victorino to second baseman Chase Utley to catcher Carlos Ruiz.

[iifold]

Mondays Overnight Plays (5dimes reduced)

Astros +142
Astros/Phillies Over (9) +110

Don't see both of these losing.. Which means small profit with plus money on both..

Was going to talk about the football game but it was a waste of time to watch..

Watched more of the baseball game..

Got a little lucky with the Astro's late rally..

Carlos Lee prop turned out to be the right play..(funny how pitchers that are known to give up HR's seem to do well against elite "Homerun" hitters(Meyers/Howard)..just an observation, no stats to back this up..)

So the lines went the other way and I still squeaked out a small profit today.. maybe I was just right today and the market was wrong???

tomorrows play will be posted soon..

[iifold]

Going to read some threads so I will kinda understand what you guys are talking about..

[iifold]

The King stands before you a raw unfinished project with talent and flaws..

Hopefully one day I will be a respected, polished, linefinding machine...

[iifold]

Tuesday (5dimes reduced)

Blue Jays +105
Blue Jays (+1.5) -155
Blue Jays/Yankees Under (9.5) +100

[iifold]

Giants -105

Sanchez has some nice numbers against the Reds..

Wood WILL struggle to shut down the free-swinging hot hitters of the Giants for the simple fact he throws too many strikes and doesn't have dominant stuff...

The Reds are Over Valued thanks to beating up on bad teams all year...

Did I convince you??

[shari91]

Okay Foldie - I have decided it's time I come to a concrete solution as to how I can assign an appropriate value to a tennis play as I'm not maximising my profits by any means. I need to confidently determine how much value a play has so I can adjust my betting size accordingly. I have tried various methods before but the result of the calculations always seemed off to me so I ended up tossing them aside.

I'm going to post in your thread as I fear my simple mind will get chased off everywhere else within the Think Tank. With you however, well, let's just say I have no concerns about that.

Before I start from scratch again and re-read every bloody thread on this subject in here to figure out if I've missed something, do you use this for your plays? If so, how? If not, then maybe we can learn this together.

[iifold]

Shari, this is definatley a weak point of mine, let me address my fellow Think Tankers and see if they'll help us...


Guys, did I not tell you I was like the cool kid at the dance.. I'm bringing in the chicks for you guys now.. So what do you guys say, help me and Shari out..can any of you answer her question without being rude?

I would like to learn about this also..

[That Foreign Guy]

maybe I was just right today and the market was wrong??? tomorrows play will be posted soon..

There are two possibilities here. 1) You are the only genius in a world of idiots 2) You made a bad bet and got lucky.

I won't tell you which the answer is, but suggest that you google Occam's Razor as this should give you a clue.

[solobass]

I am more interested in the "math" offered of course. Enogsiwon, let me say this. You speak of Sanchez numbers agains the reds. Now if any pitcher has those stats against the opposition is it a play every time if that is the sole factor for your wager or is this a one off data mining examination? My point being is you must have a consistent way of capping the games and keep cultivating and re working those numbers which are the real key to victory.

[WendysRox]

There are two possibilities here. 1) You are the only genius in a world of idiots 2) You made a bad bet and got lucky.

I won't tell you which the answer is, but suggest that you google Occam's Razor as this should give you a clue.

I LOVE this guy... his philosophy is: "the line is always correct, therefore if you bet against line movement and win, you must have gotten lucky."

This guy cracks me up. He will never admit that a line is incorrect and that the public has driven a line away from what it should be. Justin7 and sharpie are the same way.... they are too smart for their own good.

[bztips]

I LOVE this guy... his philosophy is: "the line is always correct, therefore if you bet against line movement and win, you must have gotten lucky."

This guy cracks me up. He will never admit that a line is incorrect and that the public has driven a line away from what it should be. Justin7 and sharpie are the same way.... they are too smart for their own good.

Here we go again; brilliant comment from the guy who said "lines have nothing to do with probability".

[iifold]

One thing is for sure..

The line on Vazquez' last 2 starts was off.. I told eveyone his arm was "dead" and velocity was down..

Now Im sure the linesmakers knew this but for some reason didn't want to put out the "true" lines..

Am I crazy to think this??

[jgilmartin]

Wendys - Again I ask you, do you acknowledge that players who beat the closing line a large majority of the time are long-term winners?

[iifold]

Would one of you robots please take me through a day in the life of a think tanker..

Can you briefly explain what it is you do different than your average everyday sports bettor here at SBR?

[iifold]

Wow, the Toronto/NewYork total is now at U10 +100...

Looks like I took the worst of it again taking under 9.5 +100 last night..(moved a whole .5 run at 5dimes)

[Peeig]

Do we really need a random pix thread in this forum?? Isn't that what playaz talk iz all 'bout?

[iifold]

Do we really need a random pix thread in this forum?? Isn't that what playaz talk iz all 'bout?

Buddy, that's what this thread is all about..

The Transformation of the King..

I have only been here 2 days, give it some time..

Think of me as your project, I am telling you how I am going about my daily betting, how I am coming to my conclusions..

It's up to you guys to point out when I am totally out of line and teach me the right way to do things..

This will be a great thread when everything is said and done..

[Flying Dutchman]

Transmogrified into what? A bigger and more egotistical asshole? We have Mathy and Monkey filling those roles already and at least they do have SOME math background.

Jesus, do we really have to put up with this shit for 6 months?

[G's pks]

Tuesday (5dimes reduced)

Blue Jays +105
Blue Jays (+1.5) -155
Blue Jays/Yankees Under (9.5) +100

These three losses in a row will impress someone...>>>>your bookie!