PavyRacers World Cup Hedge Fund

[pavyracer]

I placed the bets myself today. I PM'd the plays to Wal but he must be away. I have just came back from playing 18 holes of golf. We won 300 points today. We also won 200 points yesterday. I believe Wal said last time we were down 2350 points on his account (without accounting the futures) and we made back 500 points the last 2 days. So we should be down 1850 now (need Wal to verify). My account has 1650 available and 850 points at risk on futures to advance. Wal tranfered me 1500 points out of the original 8300 points in the fund.

What I have noticed is that when I email Wal the plays the night before we get horrible lines so I wait to place the bets until a few minutes before kick off. To give you an example: Ghana pk was -265 last night and I bought is at pk -150 a few minutes before kick off. That play pushed but if it lost it would have cost us for playing the line too early.

Here are the copies of today tickets:

Internet / -1 Ticket #: 253526
Jun 19 07:30 AM

SOC
STRAIGHT BET
[6094] NETHERLANDS -1-127

381.00 / 300.00

0.00
PUSH
PUSH
06/19/2010 07:21 AM
Internet / -1 Ticket #: 253707
Jun 19 10:00 AM

SOC
STRAIGHT BET
[6098] GHANA PK-150

300.00 / 200.00

0.00
PUSH
PUSH
06/19/2010 09:57 AM
Internet / -1 Ticket #: 254177
Jun 19 02:30 PM

SOC
STRAIGHT BET
[6101] TOTAL o2-115
(DENMARK vrs CAMEROON)

345.00 / 300.00

300.00
WIN
WIN
06/19/2010 02:10 PM

[lordswing]

Thanks Pavy, world cup is far from over, just a minor hiccup. Gives a clueless one like me something to root for when a match is on

[wal66]

Pavy, we may have stumbled across what's been wrong here. You placed these wagers yourself thereby keeping them free of my powerful jinx.

I listed:

Netherlands DRAW
Australia PK
Denmark PK and OVER

I didn't play any of them though, figures.

[pavyracer]

Wal,

Right now I have 1650 points available in my account to bet. I think that's enough for day to day betting in the group round. I will keep an eye on line movement and make picks as necessary. When we go to the knockout stage and we know how much we have available once the futures are paid we bring out the big guns and fire from both accounts.

Will you mind sending a PM to investors indicating the fund balance and points at risk on futures? I have 1650 points in my account and 850 points tied up with futures.

Thanks for all the hard work.

[vitalogist]

You guys rock. Thanks so much!

[wal66]

I will continue to update share holderrs Pavs. If you forward me the plays in enough time prior to the start and if I am available I will PM those as well. I imagine watching for the lines to swing sometimes this might not be an option and I am sure everyone will understand.

[pavyracer]

I have to check starting lineups, formations and final hour line movement to make a bet. This is a mistake I made the first week. I tried to help you by sending the plays early but it doesn't work like this in World Cup of Soccer. There is tremendous line movement within hours. If it was college football we would be OK because lines don't move a lot overnight.

[wal66]

I understand. I will just update balances until you need more assistance.

[Tommy_de1st]

This tremendous line movement is caused by the news that particular player is injured, suspended or just not gonna play. That news is known very often an hour prior to the game.

[pavyracer]

Update on the Futures:

TOURNAMENTS:

SPAIN +410 – (250 100 points)
NETHERLANDS +1175 – (100 points)

2010 FIFA WORLD CUP ODDS TO WIN GROUP B:
ARGENTINA -222 (500 100 points)

2010 FIFA WORLD CUP ODDS TO WIN GROUP E:
NETHERLANDS -155 (500 100 points)

2010 FIFA WORLD CUP ODDS TO WIN GROUP F:
PARAGUAY +365 (150 100 points)

2010 FIFA WORLD CUP ODDS TO WIN GROUP G:
BRAZIL -185 (500 100 points)

PROPOSITIONS:

WC 2010 TEAM TO ADVANCE GROUP A:MEXICO TO ADVANCE TO 2ND ROUND -125 (250 points)

WC 2010 TEAM TO ADVANCE GROUP B:SOUTH KOREA TO ADVANCE TO 2ND ROUND +215 (50 points)

WC 2010 TEAM TO ADVANCE GROUP C:SLOVENIA TO ADVANCE TO 2ND ROUND +165 (150 200 points)

WC 2010 TEAM TO ADVANCE GROUP D:SERBIA TO ADVANCE TO 2ND ROUND -115 (300 230 points)

WC 2010 TEAM TO ADVANCE GROUP F:PARAGUAY TO ADVANCE TO 2ND ROUND -200 (400 points)

WC 2010 TEAM TO ADVANCE GROUP G:PORTUGAL TO ADVANCE TO 2ND ROUND -155 (300 310 points)

WC 2010 TEAM TO ADVANCE GROUP H:CHILE TO ADVANCE TO 2ND ROUND -155 (300 310 points)

The strike out points is what we wanted to bet for the hedge fund and the number next to it is what we actually bet based on maximum limits allowed per bet for each account.

[Holtgetsback]

Italy, Kiwi draw was nice, hope you bet it pavy

[ronjon619]

what were the bets for sunday?

[pavyracer]

what were the bets for sunday?

No bets for Sunday. We have a bunch invested in Paraguay winning the group and advancing and I felt there was no reason to wager more.

[ronjon619]

No bets for Sunday. We have a bunch invested in Paraguay winning the group and advancing and I felt there was no reason to wager more.

still got time for the over in the last game. it will be a scoring fest

[stealthyburrito]

can we get a pm with the updated futures? i was tracking but am lost now. thanks paver and wally.

[pavyracer]

can we get a pm with the updated futures? i was tracking but am lost now. thanks paver and wally.

read post #290 - it tells you the futures and amount of points wagered on each play

[Club]

Futures looking good, don't you think?

[pavyracer]

Argentina and Netherlands will win the group and Brazil has a good chance if they don't lose today.
Paraguay will win the group if they don't lose to New Zealand and Italy doesn't trash Slovakia. They are almost sure to advance.
Mexico will advance with a draw or small loss.
South Korea will advance with a draw or small loss.
Slovenia will advance with a draw or small loss if US doesn't win.
Serbia will advance with a win or draw if Germany loses or Ghana loses by 2.
Portugal will advance if they beat North Korea.
Chile will advance if they beat Switzerland or tie Spain & Switzerland.

[Club]

So it looks like Chile has the biggest uphill battle and not because of anything they did but because Spain laid down to the Swiss.

I know it's not over but nice job with the futures. if you look at the teams that have really disappointed (Spain, England, Italy, France, Nigeria), we weren't on any of them.

[pavyracer]

So it looks like Chile has the biggest uphill battle and not because of anything they did but because Spain laid down to the Swiss.

I know it's not over but nice job with the futures. if you look at the teams that have really disappointed (Spain, England, Italy, France, Nigeria), we weren't on any of them.

Yeah it's unfortunate we couldn't bet more on the win the group futures. We needed 5 individual posters to place the bets for 100 points a piece but would have made the bookkeeping messy. Then we shouldn't have had such big unit size for individual games. But if you placed these bets at your book the least of your worries should be the point losses.

[vitalogist]

Nice work on the futures / props, Paver. I wish I had more funds in my cash acct at the time you released them, I would have wagered more!!! Lets do it again after the group stage ends!!!

[Cougar Bait]

What is the status of the fund?

[pavyracer]

Thanks. You need to have a set bankroll to bet the World Cup. This is why I wanted to wager 50% of the fund in futures. So far we cashed Mexico, South Korea, Argentina, Netherlands and barring a miracle Brazil and Portugal. Then we are in the game on all the others.

[pavyracer]

What is the status of the fund?

we are down around 2000 points but once the futures start getting graded we will get some back. Most likely we are going to be in the red before the knock out stage starts due to the futures not being wagered as planned.

[kato]

great job pavy on those futures

[vitalogist]

Thanks. You need to have a set bankroll to bet the World Cup. This is why I wanted to wager 50% of the fund in futures. So far we cashed Mexico, South Korea, Argentina, Netherlands and barring a miracle Brazil and Portugal. Then we are in the game on all the others.

I definitely did. Wagered around $200 total on those futures, and they're already a lock to be profitable.

I've been extra careful on daily plays, this cup has been pretty unpredictable. The matches are fun to watch on their own, anyway, but I really try to pick my spots... Great info so far though, it is much appreciated...

[Club]

Closed out some nice futures today. Pavyracer, are you working on any individual bets or just focusing on futures the rest of the way?

[pavyracer]

Closed out some nice futures today. Pavyracer, are you working on any individual bets or just focusing on futures the rest of the way?

Well is counter productive to be betting on the games where you have futures on. If we bet on the same teams to win we are risking losing twice if they lose from not advancing and losing the individual game. I place bets right before the games start. For example today I bet the Argentina/Greece game under 2.5 because I saw Greece's lineup with 6 defenders. I couldn't give a play last night. If Greece's coach risked and went with a 4-3-3 formation instead of 6-3-1 which he actually fielded we would have been burned.

[Club]

Sounds good. Let's get some more futures tomorrow.

[Tommy_de1st]

We are not gonna get pm's or emails anymore?

[wal66]

We are not gonna get pm's or emails anymore?

Tommy, I will be playing a golf tournament today through Sunday. I will get back to PM'ing updates Monday. These will be after the fact updates because Pavs is mainly wagering individual games through his account now and right before games begin. Late adjustments, line-ups ect. makes what we were doing in the beginning less profitable.

I will have my computer with me and if Pavs makes some futures or props for the next round I will notify once I am told of the plays.

[jjgold]

Wally

Solid job managing this thing

[ronjon619]

Tommy, I will be playing a golf tournament today through Sunday. I will get back to PM'ing updates Monday. These will be after the fact updates because Pavs is mainly wagering individual games through his account now and right before games begin. Late adjustments, line-ups ect. makes what we were doing in the beginning less profitable.

I will have my computer with me and if Pavs makes some futures or props for the next round I will notify once I am told of the plays.

how did the fund do the last 2 days? There were some huge games.

[vitalogist]

Futures 6-2 so far with three more locks tomorrow seeming imminent. Unreal work guys

[pavyracer]

Sorry guys. I had an emergency and couldn't be on the last couple days. I will try to post some plays later for tomorrows games.

The futures went great. We went 4-0 on Win the group and 5-2 on Advancing next round. Also the two futures to win cup are still alive. I wish we had more money wagered on the futures because we are in the red right now.