(NFL) Notes - 2025

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  • johnnyvegas13
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 05-21-15
    • 27954

    #71
    Chuck I’ll chat w ya in here tmr morning
    Comment
    • ChuckyTheGoat
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 04-04-11
      • 38148

      #72
      Originally posted by johnnyvegas13
      Chuck I’ll chat w ya in here tmr morning
      Hope you have a nice banger for SUN, john.
      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
      Comment
      • stevenash
        Moderator
        • 01-17-11
        • 65999

        #73
        Colts with an early pick-six.
        Colts will be your SB champs, Danny Dimes will be your MVP.
        Comment
        • ChuckyTheGoat
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 04-04-11
          • 38148

          #74
          Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
          Three Lookahead plays for Wk04. Each 1* (These are plays where I think the # may look advantageous by kickoff):
          266 NY GIANTS +6 1.95: 1 to win .95
          274 KAN CITY +2.5 2.05: 1 to win 1.05
          276 DALLAS +5 1.95: 1 to win .95
          Can't say that I got good line-value this time:

          *Adding two units on DALL +7 1.89: 2 to win 1.78
          ...Lamb is out. So, number bumped even higher.
          ...I'll give you an amazing stat. Kicker Aubrey is 49/50 on FG (98%) at Home in his career.

          Click image for larger version

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          Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
          Comment
          • ChuckyTheGoat
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 04-04-11
            • 38148

            #75
            One other GB/Dall Parsons/Clark trade:
            *Dall lost on the pass rush.
            ...But they gained on the Rush DEF with Clark.

            Per usual, just my opinion. I think the adjustment is way too much.
            ...I view this game playing closer to 3.
            Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
            Comment
            • ChuckyTheGoat
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 04-04-11
              • 38148

              #76
              2* ATL +2.5 1.93: 2 to win 1.86
              ...Last out was a disaster. Over-adjustment after blowout loss.
              ...WASH QB Daniels still out. Mariota is older now.
              ...Don't care who plays QB. Looks like a sucker line, but it should be value.
              Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
              Comment
              • ChuckyTheGoat
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 04-04-11
                • 38148

                #77
                1* ARIZ (pk) 2.06: 1 to win 1.06
                ...Action play. For THUR nite game.
                ...I know that Sea looks a little better at the moment. Just not sure this # is right.
                Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                Comment
                • ChuckyTheGoat
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 04-04-11
                  • 38148

                  #78
                  2* New Orl +16.5 1.93: 2 to win 1.86
                  ...See a lot of subtle reasons to look at the Big Dog. Off a 31-pt loss, most won't touch em w/ a 10-foot pole.
                  ...Bills have had great fortune on Fumbles the L2 years. Feel like they're being over-priced (like last week vs MIA).
                  ...In viewing the Yards per Play, not as one-sided as you might think. Bill rush DEF (6.2) is actually quite vulnerable.
                  ...Key Bill injuries on DEF. Except for Allen, Milano/Oliver may have the biggest displacement factors on the roster.
                  ...Grupe (NO) is a good kicker, but he's slumping. Has missed three FG this season, would have looked better had he made em.
                  ...Also, still in September. Mild weather, so don't get the effect of a southern team travelling into the bitter cold.
                  Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                  Comment
                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 04-04-11
                    • 38148

                    #79
                    Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                    1* ARIZ (pk) 2.06: 1 to win 1.06
                    ...Action play. For THUR nite game.
                    ...I know that Sea looks a little better at the moment. Just not sure this # is right.
                    2nd unit on ARIZ +1.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                    Comment
                    • ChuckyTheGoat
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 04-04-11
                      • 38148

                      #80
                      1* NEW ENG (1h) -3 1.93: 1 to win .93
                      ...Will talk about this game more later in the week.
                      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                      Comment
                      • ChuckyTheGoat
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 04-04-11
                        • 38148

                        #81
                        1* Clev +10 1.97: 1 to win .97
                        ...Can still get a decent line w/ this great DEF. Much longer?
                        ...The line I wanted to play was the Lion tm-total under. Just don't like the number.
                        ...As long as the Browns don't gift short-fields to the Lions, points should play. I have to think the HC is ready to switch QBs if Flacco falters early.
                        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                        Comment
                        • ChuckyTheGoat
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 04-04-11
                          • 38148

                          #82
                          Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                          1* NEW ENG (1h) -3 1.93: 1 to win .93
                          ...Will talk about this game more later in the week.
                          Adding: 2* NEW ENG (full game) -5.5 1.95: 2 to win 1.90
                          ...Public Dog alert. Good play for hidden value.
                          ...Carolina came in thru back-door ATS at Ariz. Everything worked out last week vs ATL. Sell high spot on Carol.
                          ...Gap between these teams is larger than it appears. I'll gladly play against Carolina QB Young.
                          Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                          Comment
                          • ChuckyTheGoat
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 04-04-11
                            • 38148

                            #83
                            A couple 1h plays. Just like these #s. 1*
                            Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                            Comment
                            • ChuckyTheGoat
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 04-04-11
                              • 38148

                              #84
                              Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                              A couple 1h plays. Just like these #s. 1*
                              1* each:
                              *DET (1h Team Total): UND 13.5 2.10: 1 to win 1.10
                              ...Asking the Lions to get to 14+. Would like have to score two TDs versus this DEF.

                              *KC (1h) +0.5 2.02: 1 to win 1.02
                              ...Playing into the LONG run of Chef success. Should get a great effort here. And we win on a half-time tie.
                              Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                              Comment
                              • ChuckyTheGoat
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 04-04-11
                                • 38148

                                #85
                                A few more plays. Backing that Brown DEF:
                                1* DET (gm Tm-Total): UND 26.5 2.10: 1 to win 1.10
                                1* DET (1h Tm-Total): UnD 13.5 2.24: 1 to win 1.24
                                Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                Comment
                                • ChuckyTheGoat
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 04-04-11
                                  • 38148

                                  #86
                                  One other justification on DALLAS. Remember that Prescott missed half the games in 2024.

                                  *I'm not a Prescott fan. But he is > 60% S/U historically in his starts:
                                  Checkout the latest stats for Dak Prescott. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.


                                  Add it all up. Not sure DALL should be catching this many points.
                                  Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                  Comment
                                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 04-04-11
                                    • 38148

                                    #87
                                    Plays for Wk05:
                                    2* San Fran +3.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82. Rams benefited mightily from the untimely Colt fumble.
                                    1* CINCY +8.5 1.95: 1 to win .95. Lion net-yardage wasn't that dominant vs CLEV.
                                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                    Comment
                                    • ChuckyTheGoat
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 04-04-11
                                      • 38148

                                      #88
                                      Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                      Plays for Wk05:
                                      2* San Fran +3.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82. Rams benefited mightily from the untimely Colt fumble.
                                      1* CINCY +8.5 1.95: 1 to win .95. Lion net-yardage wasn't that dominant vs CLEV.
                                      Added plays:
                                      3rd unit on San Fran +8.5 1.97: 1 to win .97. I know there are injuries. # is outrageous.
                                      1* NY JETS (1h) +0.5 1.97: 1 to win .97
                                      1* Las Veg Raid +7 1.91: 1 to win .91
                                      1* Wash +3 1.91: 1 to win .91. Daniels cleared to play. Not sure that's fully baked into the line yet.
                                      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                      Comment
                                      • ChuckyTheGoat
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 04-04-11
                                        • 38148

                                        #89
                                        2* Minn Team Total: UND 20.5 1.87: 2 to win 1.74
                                        ...Browns have best DEF in the league. Conceding 222 yards per game.
                                        ...MINN Off Line is banged-up. Brown DEF front will have some great matchups.
                                        ...Browns conceded a Punt Return TD last week. YTD record doesn't reflect their box-score performance.
                                        ...Browns were -5 average on starting Field Pos, mostly due to Flacco's ineptitude. QB switch will give life to the offense.
                                        ...Once again, betting Opponent team total under. Feel like Vikings will struggle to score > 20.
                                        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                        Comment
                                        • ChuckyTheGoat
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 04-04-11
                                          • 38148

                                          #90
                                          More pro-Niner plays. 1* each:
                                          (1h) SF +4.5 1.97: 1 to win .97
                                          (1h) Ram Team Total: UND 13.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
                                          Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                          Comment
                                          • ChuckyTheGoat
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 04-04-11
                                            • 38148

                                            #91
                                            Opinion on the line move: *No way this move on the Rams is merited.
                                            ...I'm willing to bet on it. Fantasy FB players cross-over to betting nowadays.
                                            ...I don't see much difference in Purdy vs Mac. And I will never put that much value on a couple WRs.
                                            Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                            Comment
                                            • MOBIL19
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 07-31-20
                                              • 1022

                                              #92
                                              Hold on Chucky!!!
                                              Comment
                                              • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 04-04-11
                                                • 38148

                                                #93
                                                Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                                More pro-Niner plays. 1* each:
                                                (1h) SF +4.5 1.97: 1 to win .97
                                                (1h) Ram Team Total: UND 13.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
                                                Niners get there! Nice job, Mac:
                                                Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                Comment
                                                • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 04-04-11
                                                  • 38148

                                                  #94
                                                  Three Look-ahead plays for Wk06. 1* each:
                                                  *NY JETS +6.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
                                                  *Cleveland +6 1.95: 1 to win .95
                                                  *NEW ORL +3.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
                                                  Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 04-04-11
                                                    • 38148

                                                    #95
                                                    Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                                    Plays for Wk05:
                                                    2* San Fran +3.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82. Rams benefited mightily from the untimely Colt fumble.
                                                    1* CINCY +8.5 1.95: 1 to win .95. Lion net-yardage wasn't that dominant vs CLEV.
                                                    Few more plays for Wk05:
                                                    1* TBay Team Total: UND 20.5 1.87: 1 to win .87
                                                    ...This Seahag DEF is pretty tough. Have not yet conceded a Rush TD.

                                                    Adding 2nd unit on CINCY +10.5 1.88: 1 to win .88
                                                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 04-04-11
                                                      • 38148

                                                      #96
                                                      Originally posted by MOBIL19
                                                      Hold on Chucky!!!
                                                      We did, Mobil! Thx for your support.
                                                      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 04-04-11
                                                        • 38148

                                                        #97
                                                        Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

                                                        Added plays:
                                                        3rd unit on San Fran +8.5 1.97: 1 to win .97. I know there are injuries. # is outrageous.
                                                        1* NY JETS (1h) +0.5 1.97: 1 to win .97
                                                        1* Las Veg Raid +7 1.91: 1 to win .91
                                                        1* Wash +3 1.91: 1 to win .91. Daniels cleared to play. Not sure that's fully baked into the line yet.
                                                        Few more plays:
                                                        *2nd unit on Jets (1h) +0.5 1.97: 1 to win .97
                                                        *2nd unit on Wash +3 1.91: 1 to win .91
                                                        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 04-04-11
                                                          • 38148

                                                          #98
                                                          Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

                                                          Added plays:
                                                          3rd unit on San Fran +8.5 1.97: 1 to win .97. I know there are injuries. # is outrageous.
                                                          1* NY JETS (1h) +0.5 1.97: 1 to win .97
                                                          1* Las Veg Raid +7 1.91: 1 to win .91
                                                          1* Wash +3 1.91: 1 to win .91. Daniels cleared to play. Not sure that's fully baked into the line yet.
                                                          Adding: two units on Las Veg Raid +7 2.00: 2 to win 2.00
                                                          ...We get a good #. Jeanty off best game as a pro.
                                                          Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Vene1616
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 09-20-20
                                                            • 1041

                                                            #99
                                                            San Fran was epic
                                                            Was was epic

                                                            GL going forward!
                                                            Comment
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