(NFL) Notes - 2025

[ChuckyTheGoat]

It's early. But two ATS winners in my bag. I'll take it.

[Easy-Rider 66]

It's early. But two ATS winners in my bag. I'll take it.

get em Chuck

[ChuckyTheGoat]

get em Chuck

Thx, EZ. Start fast...and stay hot. If we're in action, we're ahead of most.

Adding 3rd unit on: NY JETS +3 1.95: 1 to win .95
...In my mind this might be the last time to bet anti-Rodgers.
...I expect him to look bad. Go, Fields!
...Steelers can't block Gastineau/Salaam/Lyons/Klecko.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GL, everyone. Enjoy the games.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Successful week. Will tally these up manana:
*Cowboys cover.
*Chargers win outright.
*Jets cover.
*Saints lose by the hook.
*TENN pushes the early (but covers any late #).
*Bills push the +1 I posted.

...Man, it could have been better. NFL is so tough.
...My one complaint for the Week: Saints K Grupe missed a kick that he makes 96% of the time. Cost me a cover by the hook.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One play for Week 02:

1* Atlanta +5.5 1.95: 1 to win .95

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One play for Week 02:

1* Atlanta +5.5 1.95: 1 to win .95

2nd unit on ATL: *Think there are some things to like about the Falcons this week.
...Penix looked good. Got a little unlucky on the missed FG.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* Sea +2.5 2.10: 2 to win 2.20

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* Sea +2.5 2.10: 2 to win 2.20

*Tomlin is the master of losing the yardage but winning SU. Has to catch up to him at some point.
...Another chance to fade Rodgers. Guy has no mobility. Defenses don't have to use a spy on his scrambling.
...Seahawks off a tough loss. Could have worked out better.
...I believe in the SEA HC. Expecting a well-conceived game-plan.
...Nice little SEA trend: Won their L6 road games. Including 4-0 SU/ATS as Road Dog.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* 257 NY Giants +6 1.94: 2 to win 1.88
...I think this is the spot to play em. Can't get any worse.
...Dallas played the Eagles close. People now more confident in DALL.
...Dallas now laying the same # WASH did last week. Have to question the #.
...I believe that Dallas will show up as a Public side. Giants may be a Contrarian pick.
...Gano banged in a 55-yarder last week. Two big-leg kickers, which may make for a tight game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Gonna start playing some Lookahead lines. 1* plays for Week 03:
453 Atl -2.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
...If the Panthers get ripped again, this will hit -3.

458 CLEV +6.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
...Feel like the Packers are getting priced too high.

[ProSportsEdge]

Sad day in NYG land as Dabol cut the legendary Tommy Cutlets DeVito.
My take?

If Jameis Winston can't beat out Tommy Cutlets for a backup job to Russell Wilson, then Jameis needs to be looking for a new profession, because an NFL QB gig isn't working out.

It won't matter, though, that job will go to Jaxson Dart within two months, and by Halloween, Dart will be proven to be an NFL failure, proving to the rest of the world that Dabol is a fraud.

Ignore me, I'm just a suffering New York Giants fan.

Tough break for Cutlets, he definitely brought some fun to Giants games. I hear you, though—backup QB spot is shaky, and Daboll’s decisions haven’t exactly inspired confidence lately. Giants fans have had it rough.

[Chiefs83]

Put the kid in…what r u waiting for…find out if he’s the franchise guy or not…team is absolutely terrible anyway…they are not going anywhere with that weak roster….that’s the only chance you have of way saving your job Dabol.
Giants set there franchise back 10 years the day they signed Daniel Jones to that ridiculous extension. How could you not have known…I DID…it was obvious…you had a 3 year sample size….cuz Barkley & defense led them to the playoffs, you couldn’t say No to Jones? Most mind boggling decision ever & the day I stopped rooting for the Giants cuz lost respect for the whole organization

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Put the kid in…what r u waiting for…find out if he’s the franchise guy or not…team is absolutely terrible anyway…they are not going anywhere with that weak roster….that’s the only chance you have of way saving your job Dabol.
Giants set there franchise back 10 years the day they signed Daniel Jones to that ridiculous extension. How could you not have known…I DID…it was obvious…you had a 3 year sample size….cuz Barkley & defense led them to the playoffs, you couldn’t say No to Jones? Most mind boggling decision ever & the day I stopped rooting for the Giants cuz lost respect for the whole organization

Throw in someone who is not ready, shatter his confidence early on behind a piss poor oline/poor running game and move on from him after a year or 2 only to draft another 1st round QB in 2-3 years? This seems to be the formula of poorly run organizations. There is some merit in having a modicum of patience and letting a guy learn the system etc before throwing him into the fire. Another factor is this is in NY and their media will chew him up, spit him out and leave him for dead quickly if he struggles.

[stevenash]

Right after Danny Dimes and the Colts crap all over Dabol.

Danny Dimes was Danny Dollars Sunday as he made the Dolphins his personal meat puppets.

Colts' Daniel Jones quiets critics by scoring on every drive of season opener vs. Dolphins - CBSSports.com

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Yeah, Nash. Happy for him. Second chance, shot to shut-up the critics.

[Chiefs83]

So you want to sit him for the year…then where are you…stop babying him…it’s a big boy league, it should be obvious yes or no…if your not sure the answer is NO. You need generational talents to win in the NFL or QB or rookie deal with money spread throughout roster

my solution you find out…yours, well your in the same spot next year

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2nd unit on ATL: *Think there are some things to like about the Falcons this week.
...Penix looked good. Got a little unlucky on the missed FG.

1* MINN -3.5 2.08: 1 to win 1.08
...Pure hedge-back. Shot at a two-point middle.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* MINN -3.5 2.08: 1 to win 1.08
...Pure hedge-back. Shot at a two-point middle.

Three Dog Night: all three Dogs cover. But the MINN hedge whiffs.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Gonna start playing some Lookahead lines. 1* plays for Week 03:
453 Atl -2.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
...If the Panthers get ripped again, this will hit -3.

458 CLEV +6.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
...Feel like the Packers are getting priced too high.

Bump. Got good line value on ATL. Not so much on CLEV.

2* Miami +13 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...Dolphin stock has plummeted. This used to be the line when Tua was OUT.
...Not yet cold in Buffalo in September. Also feel like the Bills are being overpriced.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2nd unit on CLEV +8 1.92: 1 to win .92
...Will give a writeup later.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2nd unit on CLEV +8 1.92: 1 to win .92
...Will give a writeup later.

My support for the Browns:
*Statistically impossible for the Browns to lose the Cincy game. Win that became a loss.
*Special teams nightmare. In first two games Browns missed FG, missed XP and had a Punt blocked.
*Defensive Dog. And it's all hidden value.
*#1 in league at 192 ypg. #2 in league at 3.8 ypp. #1 in league at 2.1 ypr. All versus Burrow and Jackson.
*Garrett has played thru injury in the past. He's a wrecking ball this year. 3.5 sacks in two games.
*GBay QB Love is a light-weight. This Brown DEF will test his man-hood.
*GBay off two very easy home wins. Way too easy. Taking an 8-pt Home Dog w/ top statistical defense in the league.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* 452 TENN +3.5 1.93: 2 to win 1.86

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* 474 CHICAGO Bears pk 2.00: 2 to win 2.00
...Bears should have beaten MINN in Wk01. Giants should have beaten DALL in Wk02.
...Bears off a blowout loss. Now back home, and price looks good.
...DALL QB Prescott is now on wrong side of 30. Never the most mobile, but now he's stationary.
...Could count on him for 20 Rush Yds and 1.5 Rush FD. Now, that's like 10 and 0.5.
...Parsons departure impacts the Pass Rush. Down from 3.0/game to 1.5/game.
...Don't care for the CHI qb. But his TD/INT ratio has been decent.
...Early-season results have tilted this #.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* 474 CHICAGO Bears pk 2.00: 2 to win 2.00
...Bears should have beaten MINN in Wk01. Giants should have beaten DALL in Wk02.
...Bears off a blowout loss. Now back home, and price looks good.
...DALL QB Prescott is now on wrong side of 30. Never the most mobile, but now he's stationary.
...Could count on him for 20 Rush Yds and 1.5 Rush FD. Now, that's like 10 and 0.5.
...Parsons departure impacts the Pass Rush. Down from 3.0/game to 1.5/game.
...Don't care for the CHI qb. But his TD/INT ratio has been decent.
...Early-season results have tilted this #.

New HC Johnson will want to get this one. Especially after melting down in Q4 of the home-opener.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* MINN Vikings -3 1.96: 2 to win 1.92
...Mixing in a Fav. Good perception vs reality game.
...Bengals are a phony 2-0. Outyarded in each of their two wins.
...Burrow might be top QB in the league. His loss is significant.
...Remove the Bengal team-leader. You're left with big-ego guys that want to make sure their contract gets re-newed. Where have you gone, Kenny Anderson?
...McCarthy is so green. May be a lateral move to veteran Wentz.
...MINN center Kelly participated in practice today. Should be active on SUN.
...I'll take the MINN kicker over the CIN kicker. Reichard will soon be known as one of the best.
...Bettors are comfortable taking +3 when so many games play to a FG. Think there's hidden value on the Fav in this one.

[stevenash]

Daniel Jones wins MVP

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Daniel Jones wins MVP

What coach is on the shortest leash? IE, one 30-pt loss from getting canned?

MIA - McDaniel?
Giants - Daboll?

[stevenash]

Dabol.

He lost the locker room when he benched Jones.
The locker room *loved* Danny.

If the Giants shit the bed Sunday night against KC, in front of a trillion (that's hyperbole) viewers in prime time, consider him gone.

[Enkhbat]

No chance Giants win this Sunday, Daboll will be canned.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Three Lookahead plays for Wk04. Each 1* (These are plays where I think the # may look advantageous by kickoff):
266 NY GIANTS +6 1.95: 1 to win .95
274 KAN CITY +2.5 2.05: 1 to win 1.05
276 DALLAS +5 1.95: 1 to win .95

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bump. Got good line value on ATL. Not so much on CLEV.

2* Miami +13 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...Dolphin stock has plummeted. This used to be the line when Tua was OUT.
...Not yet cold in Buffalo in September. Also feel like the Bills are being overpriced.

Fish hang the #.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Don't think too many people had that one.

[Optional]

Bump. Got good line value on ATL. Not so much on CLEV.

2* Miami +13 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...Dolphin stock has plummeted. This used to be the line when Tua was OUT.
...Not yet cold in Buffalo in September. Also feel like the Bills are being overpriced.

[ARCHIVADO98]

nice cover by Tua