(NFL) Notes - 2025

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Football is in the air. Will post any Notes/Plays for the 2025 season.

[johnnyvegas13]

I always appreciated the nfl notes series chuck

really hyped for football to get here

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I always appreciated the nfl notes series chuck

really hyped for football to get here

Thx, John. Going thru my reading now. Have a few insights.

Wanted to watch the Moore intro video. Saints can only go up IMHO:

[ChuckyTheGoat]

You see different ratings on Strength of Schedule:

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/2025-nfl-strength-schedule-ranking-every-team-slate

Note the impact of the Niners having an off-season in 2024. They have a cupcake schedule in 2025. Rams have a tougher schedule by winning the division in 2024.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, first negative for Saints:

https://www.neworleanssaints.com/news/brandon-staley-new-orleans-saints-defensive-coordinator-coaching-staff-2025-personnel-scheme

...Staley was the guy who ran the Chargers into the ground. Don't like Staley at all.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'm optimistic on Moore. Just a few things:

1) The age is an issue. Players normally don't like to listen to coaches a few years older than them.
2) The Super Bowl ring helps. Moore was a hot name. He was going somewhere...and Sirianni wanted to keep him.

Are the Saints a complete dumpster-fire? I think their QB play can only get better.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wow, I said that I no longer give Walter's opinion much value:

https://walterfootball.com/offseason2025no.php

He calls for the Saints to go 2-15. Well, it's hard to go UNDER 2.

Talk about a barometer for public opinion. Opinion on Saints couldn't be any lower.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Uh-oh, will Billy be anti-PHI with an Eagle on the cover?

2O25_Playbook_YB_cover_1024x1024_2x_792c140b-cfd9-44ae-a148-cf75bbbdb762.webp

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Going to post first pick of the year (below):

*Don't view these as professional picks. They're just my opinion. Based on:
1) Trends
2) Stats
3) Public Opinion

Starting NFL bankroll = 100 units. I'd consider +12 Net Units to be a good season. But it's mostly recreational. Like everyone, I enjoy the action.

Bet Size standards:
1* = Action play
2* = Standard (average-sized) play
3* = Above-Average play
4* = Strong play
5* = Best Bet (Max risk)

Good Luck, everyone. Enjoy the games.

1* 454 Los Angeles Chargers +3 2.05: 1 to win 1.05.

[Easy-Rider 66]

get em CHUCK. WILL BE FOLLOWING YOUR ACTION.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* 456 NY JETS +3 1.92: 2 to win 1.84

2* 479 Balt Ravens +1 1.97: 2 to win 1.94

[ChuckyTheGoat]

get em CHUCK. WILL BE FOLLOWING YOUR ACTION.

Thx, Easy! I form my opinion...and just tell it like it is.

And if I go ice-cold, maybe I can serve as a good Fade. I'm cool with that, too.

[Optional]

[ChuckyTheGoat]

We'll see, Opti. Will give one prediction for 2025:
*Remember how well the Contrarian thread did a few years ago?

...In looking at the 2025 previews, there are SO MANY talking-heads with an opinion.
...I think they'll drive the market. How many of them get it WRONG?
...Calling it now. 2025 = the Return of Contrarian success.

[Optional]

We'll see, Opti. Will give one prediction for 2025:
*Remember how well the Contrarian thread did a few years ago?

...In looking at the 2025 previews, there are SO MANY talking-heads with an opinion.
...I think they'll drive the market. How many of them get it WRONG?
...Calling it now. 2025 = the Return of Contrarian success.

Could be!

New rule about them being allowed to prep the kickers ball for 3 days before the match might be an angle to follow early. That Jags guy nailing over 70 might be more to do with that than his big leg?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Could be!

New rule about them being allowed to prep the kickers ball for 3 days before the match might be an angle to follow early. That Jags guy nailing over 70 might be more to do with that than his big leg?

Opti, that's a great note. I didn't know that.

My eyes will be open on the Kickers. The old K-ball used to be slicker. If the Kicker ball can be prepped, then I'm convinced that the Long FG record is going down this year.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Will try to give a brief writeup on every play. Re Chargers:
*Herbert is now age 27. Ideal Age dog catching 3 pts. Now is his chance.
*Chargers in 2nd year under Jim Harbaugh. Jim and John seem to win over time.
*This is mostly an anti-Chef play. People don't realize how close they are to being mediocre.
*Chefs are on an incredible streak of good fortune. 17 straight wins in one-score games!
*Mahomes/Kelce stats are down 20% from their peak. Chef salary structure is very top-heavy.
*Go back in history and look up the '68 Packers and '80 Steelers. Fall from grace is often sudden.
...I'm a little put off by the Neutral site, but I like the +3. "That looks great. But who are the CHEFS?"

[Easy-Rider 66]

Schultz: Terry McLaurin to sign a 3-year, $96M extension with the Commanders.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* 456 NY JETS +3 1.92: 2 to win 1.84

2* 479 Balt Ravens +1 1.97: 2 to win 1.94

JETS
*Tomlin has proven to be a great coach. His teams seem to over-achieve every season.
*That has to factor into the # at some point. Is this Steeler team over-priced?
*Rodgers arrives as the new QB. Guy has been washed-up for three years.
*His mobility is gone. A statue moves faster.
*These teams effectively traded QBs. Fields is the new Jet QB.
*I liked his poise in spot-duty last year. I'll take Fields over Rodgers.
*I like the look of new Jet HC Glenn. He reminds me of a young Mike Tomlin.
*Jet DEF has conceded only 300 ypg over L2 seasons. I like the +3 on the Home Dog.

RAVENS
*Ravens were a statistically dominant team in 2024. Fell victim to several close losses.
*Jackson had a 41/4 TD/INT ratio in 2024. Should be ready for a great season.
*Ravens dominated the line of scrimmage. Henry was productive, and their Rush DEF was stingy.
*Tucker fell off a cliff last year. Rookie kicker Loop has a huge leg. Loop will be > 2024 Tucker.
*Like the Ravens, Bills have been a close-but-no-cigar team. Ravens are statistically better.
*Bills lucked out on Fumbles in 2024. And they have the look of being a one-man team.
*Immediate Revenge play for BALT after the playoff exit. Ravens look like the more balanced team to me.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Tenn Titans +8 1.95: 1 to win .95
...Some reluctance about backing rookie QB Ward in first start. But we remove turnover-prone QB Levis.
...Titans were somewhat unlucky last year. Hard to be that bad ATS (if not SU). So, the bar is low.
...+8 looks juicy. That's a big number in the modern NFL.
...Broncos look like a mirage to me. They feasted on bad teams in 2024.
...Lastly, the Chiefs gift-wrapped the win to DEN in final Reg Sea game of 2024. You won't see a bigger walkover.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I don't know about TENN Chuck. Asking Ward to keep it close in Mile high may be a stretch. DEN has a good D. Usually I like taking the number but I am most likely laying off this game. GL.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

JETS
*Tomlin has proven to be a great coach. His teams seem to over-achieve every season.
*That has to factor into the # at some point. Is this Steeler team over-priced?
*Rodgers arrives as the new QB. Guy has been washed-up for three years.
*His mobility is gone. A statue moves faster.
*These teams effectively traded QBs. Fields is the new Jet QB.
*I liked his poise in spot-duty last year. I'll take Fields over Rodgers.
*I like the look of new Jet HC Glenn. He reminds me of a young Mike Tomlin.
*Jet DEF has conceded only 300 ypg over L2 seasons. I like the +3 on the Home Dog.

RAVENS
*Ravens were a statistically dominant team in 2024. Fell victim to several close losses.
*Jackson had a 41/4 TD/INT ratio in 2024. Should be ready for a great season.
*Ravens dominated the line of scrimmage. Henry was productive, and their Rush DEF was stingy.
*Tucker fell off a cliff last year. Rookie kicker Loop has a huge leg. Loop will be > 2024 Tucker.
*Like the Ravens, Bills have been a close-but-no-cigar team. Ravens are statistically better.
*Bills lucked out on Fumbles in 2024. And they have the look of being a one-man team.
*Immediate Revenge play for BALT after the playoff exit. Ravens look like the more balanced team to me.

In my research I identified a stat that caught my eye: *Jets were a Home Dog only once in 2024!
...That's how inflated they were under Rodgers. Will gladly go the other way here?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Salud, EZ. It's just my opinion. I was looking for a spot to play TENN.

Per usual, I know that the public forms their opinion:
*DEN was a playoff team last year. But how good were they? Chefs wanted to eliminate CINN, so they rolled over at DEN.
*Statistically, TENN should have been better last year. I know about the track record of rookies starting Game One. But I also wonder how much that's factored into the #. I actually hate Ward. Just taking what I view as a value price.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Salud, EZ. It's just my opinion. I was looking for a spot to play TENN.

Per usual, I know that the public forms their opinion:
*DEN was a playoff team last year. But how good were they? Chefs wanted to eliminate CINN, so they rolled over at DEN.
*Statistically, TENN should have been better last year. I know about the track record of rookies starting Game One. But I also wonder how much that's factored into the #. I actually hate Ward. Just taking what I view as a value price.

all good Chuck just making conversation. Good Luck. I see it's a 1 unit play so not one of your main leans.

[Madison]

DEN 27 Tenn 6. Rookie on the road making 1st start and at Mile High. Coaching not even in the same stratosphere. DEN season toast if they give this one away. Don't over think it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

all good Chuck just making conversation. Good Luck. I see it's a 1 unit play so not one of your main leans.

You're giving me too much credit. I don't see any reason to think my 2025 opinion doesn't = COIN-FLIPPER.

One old-school guy that I listen to = Marc Lawrence. He mentioned how TENN can't be as bad as they looked in 2024.

See how the +8 looks around Week 16. These teams may be similar, in which case the +8 would look fat.

[SomeDayinBuffalo]

Buffalo Bills secondary is not good on the start of the season. Bal will win that game on Sunday night football.

[stevenash]

Sad day in NYG land as Dabol cut the legendary Tommy Cutlets DeVito.
My take?

If Jameis Winston can't beat out Tommy Cutlets for a backup job to Russell Wilson, then Jameis needs to be looking for a new profession, because an NFL QB gig isn't working out.

It won't matter, though, that job will go to Jaxson Dart within two months, and by Halloween, Dart will be proven to be an NFL failure, proving to the rest of the world that Dabol is a fraud.

Ignore me, I'm just a suffering New York Giants fan.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Sad day in NYG land as Dabol cut the legendary Tommy Cutlets DeVito.
My take?

If Jameis Winston can't beat out Tommy Cutlets for a backup job to Russell Wilson, then Jameis needs to be looking for a new profession, because an NFL QB gig isn't working out.

It won't matter, though, that job will go to Jaxson Dart within two months, and by Halloween, Dart will be proven to be an NFL failure, proving to the rest of the world that Dabol is a fraud.

Ignore me, I'm just a suffering New York Giants fan.

Storyline for later in the year: *Devito comes back with a new team. And he BEATS the Giants.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

[QUOTE=SomeDayinBuffalo;n29895181]Buffalo Bills secondary is not good on the start of the season. Bal will win that game on Sunday night football. [/QUOTE

Thx for the note, Buffalo:
*Will root for the Ravens in Week.
*Will be rooting for your Bills from Week Two on.

1) Any quick scouting report on your Bills? Unfair to view the Bills as a one-man team? Don't really like Allen getting married, prefer him being a wild stallion.
2) If I'm confident in ONE PREDICTION for 2025...it's that the Chef seven-year stranglehold on the AFC will come to an end.

[stevenash]

Storyline for later in the year: *Devito comes back with a new team. And he BEATS the Giants.

Right after Danny Dimes and the Colts crap all over Dabol.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Right after Danny Dimes and the Colts crap all over Dabol.

Yep! 2025 = the Redemption Tour:
*My #1 candidate = Fields flipping the script on PITT in Week One.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Sad day in NYG land as Dabol cut the legendary Tommy Cutlets DeVito.
My take?

If Jameis Winston can't beat out Tommy Cutlets for a backup job to Russell Wilson, then Jameis needs to be looking for a new profession, because an NFL QB gig isn't working out.

It won't matter, though, that job will go to Jaxson Dart within two months, and by Halloween, Dart will be proven to be an NFL failure, proving to the rest of the world that Dabol is a fraud.

Ignore me, I'm just a suffering New York Giants fan.

Great moments in Giant history:

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Two more Week 01 plays:
1* 451 Dallas +8 1.98: 1 to win .98
...Action play. I'm betting opposite side of the Parsons trade.

3* 468 NEW ORL +6.5 1.95: 3 TO win 2.85
...I've rarely seen a team written off this badly in pre-season. Fair to say that I'm on the anti-Public side.
...I believe in new HC Moore. He's worked his way up at a very young age. I like his demeanor.
...QB is not high on the Fantasy FB player charts. So, they'll write him off. I'll take +6.5 on the mangy dog.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

all good Chuck just making conversation. Good Luck. I see it's a 1 unit play so not one of your main leans.

EZ, if you view my picks as being akin to Berkshire Hathaway...then, you have more faith than me!!