I created a model for MLB that is threatening to end the industry.

[jamesrav]

i had you at 6/25 being up 6.47 units (38 bets). From 6/26 to 7/3 I show 21 bets with 13 wins totalling 21.87
total of 59 bets, +7.34 12.44% up,. quite impressive. $100 bets being up $730

[HoleWrecker]

2-0 today +another 2 units

Thats 6 straight winning days

[HoleWrecker]

7-5-2025





Athletics team total under 4.5 -190

[jamesrav]

2-0 today +another 2 units

Thats 6 straight winning days

-180 and -140 would be +1.26 profit for a 1 unit bet. Definitely doing well, your range is pretty safe from serious downturns, so going 0-5 for a stretch is very unlikely.

[HoleWrecker]

All plays are to win 1 unit. If a play at -140 loses its -1.40 units. Want to go through the whole table and see what you get for all posts combined?

[HoleWrecker]

7-5-2025







Athletics team total under 4.5 -190



Astros/Dodgers F5 under 4.5 -125

[jamesrav]

All plays are to win 1 unit. If a play at -140 loses its -1.40 units. Want to go through the whole table and see what you get for all posts combined?

up to 6/25 that betting strategy would put you up +7.7 instead of +6.47. I'll update the others later

[HoleWrecker]

7-5-2025



Giants F5 -200

Athletics team total under 4.5 -190

Astros/Dodgers F5 under 4.5 -125

[HoleWrecker]

2-1 +0.75 units today

Thats 7 straight winning days and counting

[HoleWrecker]

7-6-2025

Marlins/Brewrs F5 under 4.5 -130

Lets make it 8 straight winning days.

[HoleWrecker]

7-6-2025





Rockies/White Sox over 11 -110

Marlins/Brewrs F5 under 4.5 -130

[HoleWrecker]

7-6-2025

Marlins/Brewrs F5 under 4.5 -130

Lets make it 8 straight winning days.

Just another easy winner.

[Foosball Champ]

losing day

[HoleWrecker]

1-1 -0.10 units and this loser comes out of the bushes to point it out. Are you just trying to get under my skin, are you just naturally a POS, or what is wrong with you?

[HoleWrecker]

Cant stand punks like this. Go away

[jamesrav]

28 picks since 6/26: 18 wins (+18) 8 losses (-13.75) = +4.25
overall 7.7 + 4.25 = +11.25 on 66 picks = 17%

is this old fashioned data analysis or machine learning? how many games do you base the model on?

[HoleWrecker]

Dude what kind of math ananlysis is this? Whats the total for the WHOLE THREAD

Since 6-26???? why 6-26 i been posting for weeks

[HoleWrecker]

overall 7.7 + 4.25

wtf is 7.7

[HoleWrecker]

That colorado game today had no business staying under 11. Im fucking fuming right now.

4 scoreless innings at Coors field and they collectively left 10 on base, GTFO

[jamesrav]

Dude what kind of math ananlysis is this? Whats the total for the WHOLE THREAD

Since 6-26???? why 6-26 i been posting for weeks

pretty simple english: since (ie 'after') your table you've had 26 (not 28) picks and went +4.25.
The table was +7.7 units. So a total + of 11.95 (not 11.25). Doing good, no bad days. But probability says
they will eventually happen, good model or otherwise. Black came up 26 times in a row at Monte Carlo, nothing wrong with the wheel.

[Optional]

This thread does not fit the Handicapper Think Tank. It's for discussion of methods not for posting picks.

Would you prefer it to be moved to the Baseball forum or Players Talk?

[HoleWrecker]

whatever you think is best Optional. I will defer to your good judgement. I guess Players Talk is fine.

[HoleWrecker]

7-7-2025





Rangers/Angels F5 under 4.5 -188

[HoleWrecker]

Optional can we move this thread?

[HoleWrecker]

7-10-25

Mariners F5 ML -160

[EnTaroTuna]

Are you using ChatGPT to grade the results for you? The results generally line up but it misclassified 5 bets in that table:
6/5 Giants ML Loss - Giants won
6/5 Pirates/Astros Under 7.5 - 10 runs
6/7 Astros/Guardians Under 7.5 - 8 runs, went over in extra innings
6/13 Royals ML Win, lost to Athletics
6/21 Angels/Astros F5 Under 4 - 8 runs first 5 innings

[HoleWrecker]

7-10-2025

Braves ML -182

Seatte Mariners F5 ML -160

[HoleWrecker]

Are you using ChatGPT to grade the results for you? The results generally line up but it misclassified 5 bets in that table:
6/5 Giants ML Loss - Giants won
6/5 Pirates/Astros Under 7.5 - 10 runs
6/7 Astros/Guardians Under 7.5 - 8 runs, went over in extra innings
6/13 Royals ML Win, lost to Athletics
6/21 Angels/Astros F5 Under 4 - 8 runs first 5 innings

Did you happen to come up with the actual record and units total?

[HoleWrecker]

7-10-2025





Braves ML -182

Seatte Mariners F5 ML -160

Rays F5 ML -115

[mjsuax13]

Keep firing pal

[HoleWrecker]

7-11-2025



Tigers/Mariners F5 under 3.5 -130

Pirates/Twins F5 under 3.5 -140

Giants/Dodgers F5 under 4.5 -166

[EnTaroTuna]

Did you happen to come up with the actual record and units total?

Yeah. From 6/5 to 6/24 (what's in the table), there were 35 bets, updated record is 17-17-1, cumulative net loss of 7.29 units. That's betting to win 1 unit when favored or betting 1 unit when a dog.

Date	Pick	Team(s)	Spread	Odds	units	wagered	result	Net	Cumulative Net
6/5/2025	Moneyline	Giants		-114	1	1.14	Win	1	1
6/5/2025	Total Under	Mets/Dodgers	9.5	-109	1	1.09	Loss	-1.09	-0.09
6/5/2025	Total Under	Pirates/Astros	7.5	100	1	1	Loss	-1	-1.09
6/5/2025	Moneyline	Twins		-186	1	1.86	Loss	-1.86	-2.95
6/6/2025	Moneyline	Giants		122	1	1	Win	1.22	-1.73
6/7/2025	Total Under	Astros/Guardians	7.5	-120	2	2.4	Loss	-2.4	-4.13
6/8/2025	Total Under	Phillies/Pirates	7	-115	1	1.15	Win	1	-3.13
6/8/2025	Moneyline	Twins		-170	1	1.7	Win	1	-2.13
6/9/2025	Total Under	Reds/Guardians	8.5	100	1	1	Loss	-1	-3.13
6/10/2025	Moneyline	Angels		-155	1	1.55	Win	1	-2.13
6/10/2025	Moneyline	Giants		-225	1	2.25	Win	1	-1.13
6/11/2025	Moneyline	Angels		-130	1	1.3	Win	1	-0.13
6/13/2025	Moneyline	Mets		-159	1	1.59	Loss	-1.59	-1.72
6/13/2025	Moneyline	Royals		-152	1	1.52	Loss	-1.52	-3.24
6/15/2025	Run Line	Giants	1.5	-130	1	1.3	Win	1	-2.24
6/15/2025	Moneyline	Royals		-148	1	1.48	Loss	-1.48	-3.72
6/15/2025	Team Total Under	Dodgers	5	-148	1	1.48	Push	0	-3.72
6/16/2025	Moneyline	Rays		-120	1	1.2	Win	1	-2.72
6/16/2025	Moneyline	Mariners		-166	1	1.66	Loss	-1.66	-4.38
6/16/2025	Moneyline	Nationals		-165	1	1.65	Loss	-1.65	-6.03
6/17/2025	Moneyline	Giants		-153	1	1.53	Loss	-1.53	-7.56
6/18/2025	Moneyline	Blue Jays		-110	1	1.1	Win	1	-6.56
6/19/2025	First 5 Innings Under	Braves/Mets	4.5	-115	1	1.15	Win	1	-5.56
6/19/2025	Moneyline	Giants		-158	1	1.58	Win	1	-4.56
6/20/2025	First 5 Innings Under	Rays/Tigers	4.5	-125	1	1.25	Loss	-1.25	-5.81
6/20/2025	Moneyline	Giants		-120	1	1.2	Loss	-1.2	-7.01
6/21/2025	Total Over	Rockies/Dbacks	12	-110	1	1.1	Loss	-1.1	-8.11
6/21/2025	First 5 Innings Under	Angels/Astros	4	100	1	1	Loss	-1	-9.11
6/22/2025	Moneyline	Giants		-150	1	1.5	Win	1	-8.11
6/22/2025	Moneyline	Dodgers		-220	1	2.2	Win	1	-7.11
6/23/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Braves		-150	1	1.5	Win	1	-6.11
6/23/2025	Moneyline	Angels		100	1	1	Win	1	-5.11
6/24/2025	Moneyline	Giants		-170	1	1.7	Loss	-1.7	-6.81
6/24/2025	Moneyline	Yankees		-153	1	1.53	Loss	-1.53	-8.34
6/24/2025	First 5 Innings Under	Phillies/Astros	3.5	105	1	1	Win	1.05	-7.29

Since then, from 6/25 to 7/10, you made 3.46 units back with a record of 21-12-2.

Date	Pick	Team(s)	Spread	Odds	units	wagered	result	Net	Cumulative Net
6/25/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Angels		-140	1	1.4	Win	1	1
6/25/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Minnesota Twins		-130	1	1.3	Push	0	1
6/26/2025	Total Over	Tigers/A's	8.5	-120	1	1.2	Loss	-1.2	-0.2
6/26/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Mariners		110	1	1	Loss	-1	-1.2
6/27/2025	Moneyline	Yankees		-201	1	2.01	Win	1	-0.2
6/27/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Angels		-175	1	1.75	Win	1	0.8
6/27/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Rays		-130	1	1.3	Loss	-1.3	-0.5
6/28/2025	Team Total Under	A's	4.5	-210	1	2.1	Loss	-2.1	-2.6
6/28/2025	Team Total Under	White Sox	3.5	-135	1	1.35	Win	1	-1.6
6/28/2025	First 5 Innings Run Line	Brewers	-0.5	-145	1	1.45	Win	1	-0.6
6/28/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Astros		-115	1	1.15	Loss	-1.15	-1.75
6/29/2025	First 5 Innings Run Line	Brewers	-0.5	-154	1	1.54	Loss	-1.54	-3.29
6/29/2025	First 5 Innings Spread	Blue Jays	0.5	-154	1	1.54	Win	1	-2.29
6/29/2025	First 5 Innings Total Under	Braves/Phillies	4.5	-160	1	1.6	Win	1	-1.29
6/30/2025	Team Total Under	Diamondbacks	4.5	-195	1	1.95	Win	1	-0.29
6/30/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Red Sox		-215	1	2.15	Win	1	0.71
6/30/2025	First 5 Innings Total Under	Rays/A's	4.5	-145	1	1.45	Loss	-1.45	-0.74
7/1/2025	Total Under	Phillies/Padres	9	-158	1	1.58	Push	0	-0.74
7/1/2025	First 5 Team Total Under	Cardinals	1.5	-166	1	1.66	Win	1	0.26
7/1/2025	Team Total Under	Orioles	3.5	-145	1	1.45	Win	1	1.26
7/2/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Angels		-110	1	1.1	Win	1	2.26
7/2/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Brewers		-175	1	1.75	Loss	-1.75	0.51
7/2/2025	Moneyline	Rangers		-135	1	1.35	Win	1	1.51
7/3/2025	Moneyline	Giants		-114	1	1.14	Win	1	2.51
7/4/2025	First 5 Innings Total Under	Braves/Orioles	5.5	-180	1	1.8	Win	1	3.51
7/4/2025	Team Total Over	Cubs	4.5	-140	1	1.4	Win	1	4.51
7/5/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Giants		-200	1	2	Win	1	5.51
7/5/2025	Team Total Under	Athletics	4.5	-190	1	1.9	Win	1	6.51
7/5/2025	First 5 Innings Total Under	Astros/Dodgers	4.5	-125	1	1.25	Loss	-1.25	5.26
7/6/2025	Total Over	Rockies/White Sox	11	-110	1	1.1	Loss	-1.1	4.16
7/6/2025	First 5 Innings Total Under	Marlins/Brewers	4.5	-130	1	1.3	Win	1	5.16
7/7/2025	First 5 Innings Total Under	Rangers/Angels	4.5	-188	1	1.88	Loss	-1.88	3.28
7/10/2025	Moneyline	Braves		-182	1	1.82	Loss	-1.82	1.46
7/10/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Mariners		-160	1	1.6	Win	1	2.46
7/10/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Rays		-115	1	1.15	Win	1	3.46

I'd look into how you're getting the bets graded, or just do them manually, it's only a few games a day. On a few days you did come back to recap your performance and you did correctly mention you had a 7 day win streak from 6/29 to 7/5.

[HoleWrecker]

Im up well over 10 units since the beginning. I have no idea why people continue to break it down in this strange manner.

[jamesrav]

Yeah. From 6/5 to 6/24 (what's in the table), there were 35 bets, updated record is 17-17-1, cumulative net loss of 7.29 units. That's betting to win 1 unit when favored or betting 1 unit when a dog.

Date	Pick	Team(s)	Spread	Odds	units	wagered	result	Net	Cumulative Net
6/5/2025	Moneyline	Giants		-114	1	1.14	Win	1	1
6/5/2025	Total Under	Mets/Dodgers	9.5	-109	1	1.09	Loss	-1.09	-0.09
6/5/2025	Total Under	Pirates/Astros	7.5	100	1	1	Loss	-1	-1.09
6/5/2025	Moneyline	Twins		-186	1	1.86	Loss	-1.86	-2.95
6/6/2025	Moneyline	Giants		122	1	1	Win	1.22	-1.73
6/7/2025	Total Under	Astros/Guardians	7.5	-120	2	2.4	Loss	-2.4	-4.13
6/8/2025	Total Under	Phillies/Pirates	7	-115	1	1.15	Win	1	-3.13
6/8/2025	Moneyline	Twins		-170	1	1.7	Win	1	-2.13
6/9/2025	Total Under	Reds/Guardians	8.5	100	1	1	Loss	-1	-3.13
6/10/2025	Moneyline	Angels		-155	1	1.55	Win	1	-2.13
6/10/2025	Moneyline	Giants		-225	1	2.25	Win	1	-1.13
6/11/2025	Moneyline	Angels		-130	1	1.3	Win	1	-0.13
6/13/2025	Moneyline	Mets		-159	1	1.59	Loss	-1.59	-1.72
6/13/2025	Moneyline	Royals		-152	1	1.52	Loss	-1.52	-3.24
6/15/2025	Run Line	Giants	1.5	-130	1	1.3	Win	1	-2.24
6/15/2025	Moneyline	Royals		-148	1	1.48	Loss	-1.48	-3.72
6/15/2025	Team Total Under	Dodgers	5	-148	1	1.48	Push	0	-3.72
6/16/2025	Moneyline	Rays		-120	1	1.2	Win	1	-2.72
6/16/2025	Moneyline	Mariners		-166	1	1.66	Loss	-1.66	-4.38
6/16/2025	Moneyline	Nationals		-165	1	1.65	Loss	-1.65	-6.03
6/17/2025	Moneyline	Giants		-153	1	1.53	Loss	-1.53	-7.56
6/18/2025	Moneyline	Blue Jays		-110	1	1.1	Win	1	-6.56
6/19/2025	First 5 Innings Under	Braves/Mets	4.5	-115	1	1.15	Win	1	-5.56
6/19/2025	Moneyline	Giants		-158	1	1.58	Win	1	-4.56
6/20/2025	First 5 Innings Under	Rays/Tigers	4.5	-125	1	1.25	Loss	-1.25	-5.81
6/20/2025	Moneyline	Giants		-120	1	1.2	Loss	-1.2	-7.01
6/21/2025	Total Over	Rockies/Dbacks	12	-110	1	1.1	Loss	-1.1	-8.11
6/21/2025	First 5 Innings Under	Angels/Astros	4	100	1	1	Loss	-1	-9.11
6/22/2025	Moneyline	Giants		-150	1	1.5	Win	1	-8.11
6/22/2025	Moneyline	Dodgers		-220	1	2.2	Win	1	-7.11
6/23/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Braves		-150	1	1.5	Win	1	-6.11
6/23/2025	Moneyline	Angels		100	1	1	Win	1	-5.11
6/24/2025	Moneyline	Giants		-170	1	1.7	Loss	-1.7	-6.81
6/24/2025	Moneyline	Yankees		-153	1	1.53	Loss	-1.53	-8.34
6/24/2025	First 5 Innings Under	Phillies/Astros	3.5	105	1	1	Win	1.05	-7.29

Since then, from 6/25 to 7/10, you made 3.46 units back with a record of 21-12-2.

Date	Pick	Team(s)	Spread	Odds	units	wagered	result	Net	Cumulative Net
6/25/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Angels		-140	1	1.4	Win	1	1
6/25/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Minnesota Twins		-130	1	1.3	Push	0	1
6/26/2025	Total Over	Tigers/A's	8.5	-120	1	1.2	Loss	-1.2	-0.2
6/26/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Mariners		110	1	1	Loss	-1	-1.2
6/27/2025	Moneyline	Yankees		-201	1	2.01	Win	1	-0.2
6/27/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Angels		-175	1	1.75	Win	1	0.8
6/27/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Rays		-130	1	1.3	Loss	-1.3	-0.5
6/28/2025	Team Total Under	A's	4.5	-210	1	2.1	Loss	-2.1	-2.6
6/28/2025	Team Total Under	White Sox	3.5	-135	1	1.35	Win	1	-1.6
6/28/2025	First 5 Innings Run Line	Brewers	-0.5	-145	1	1.45	Win	1	-0.6
6/28/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Astros		-115	1	1.15	Loss	-1.15	-1.75
6/29/2025	First 5 Innings Run Line	Brewers	-0.5	-154	1	1.54	Loss	-1.54	-3.29
6/29/2025	First 5 Innings Spread	Blue Jays	0.5	-154	1	1.54	Win	1	-2.29
6/29/2025	First 5 Innings Total Under	Braves/Phillies	4.5	-160	1	1.6	Win	1	-1.29
6/30/2025	Team Total Under	Diamondbacks	4.5	-195	1	1.95	Win	1	-0.29
6/30/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Red Sox		-215	1	2.15	Win	1	0.71
6/30/2025	First 5 Innings Total Under	Rays/A's	4.5	-145	1	1.45	Loss	-1.45	-0.74
7/1/2025	Total Under	Phillies/Padres	9	-158	1	1.58	Push	0	-0.74
7/1/2025	First 5 Team Total Under	Cardinals	1.5	-166	1	1.66	Win	1	0.26
7/1/2025	Team Total Under	Orioles	3.5	-145	1	1.45	Win	1	1.26
7/2/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Angels		-110	1	1.1	Win	1	2.26
7/2/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Brewers		-175	1	1.75	Loss	-1.75	0.51
7/2/2025	Moneyline	Rangers		-135	1	1.35	Win	1	1.51
7/3/2025	Moneyline	Giants		-114	1	1.14	Win	1	2.51
7/4/2025	First 5 Innings Total Under	Braves/Orioles	5.5	-180	1	1.8	Win	1	3.51
7/4/2025	Team Total Over	Cubs	4.5	-140	1	1.4	Win	1	4.51
7/5/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Giants		-200	1	2	Win	1	5.51
7/5/2025	Team Total Under	Athletics	4.5	-190	1	1.9	Win	1	6.51
7/5/2025	First 5 Innings Total Under	Astros/Dodgers	4.5	-125	1	1.25	Loss	-1.25	5.26
7/6/2025	Total Over	Rockies/White Sox	11	-110	1	1.1	Loss	-1.1	4.16
7/6/2025	First 5 Innings Total Under	Marlins/Brewers	4.5	-130	1	1.3	Win	1	5.16
7/7/2025	First 5 Innings Total Under	Rangers/Angels	4.5	-188	1	1.88	Loss	-1.88	3.28
7/10/2025	Moneyline	Braves		-182	1	1.82	Loss	-1.82	1.46
7/10/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Mariners		-160	1	1.6	Win	1	2.46
7/10/2025	First 5 Innings Moneyline	Rays		-115	1	1.15	Win	1	3.46

I'd look into how you're getting the bets graded, or just do them manually, it's only a few games a day. On a few days you did come back to recap your performance and you did correctly mention you had a 7 day win streak from 6/29 to 7/5.

your attention to detail is much better than mine, I had him up (and checked what I thought were all games, albeit quickly). A few misclassifed Wins being Losses really alters things. Always easier to just post the account results, ending balance vs. beginning tells everything needed. And only real bets of course. Anything else is just hypothetical.

[EnTaroTuna]

Trust but verify.

I track everything in a database, accurate reporting is key to knowing whether you're actually onto something. I thought I had a killer strategy in MLB as well but turned out I was just lucky. I've bet on so many signals I thought were really strong but then realized after the fact that I made some mistake in accounting and it wasn't profitable in the end.

Still looking for a strong signal, especially with the gambling tax changes from Trump's bill. We'll need to beat the market at > 2.5% ROI to keep anything.