Super Bowl XLIV: Prop Betting Q&A with Peter Loshak and Justin7 (video)

[donjuan]

and you came up with 2.1 how exactly? you can't just pull a number out of the fukking air. no way in hell you capped that number yourself.

I came up with it by taking their season averages (incl. playoffs) for sacks and normalizing the opposing defenses against the league average. Justin has explained this technique in past videos.

and if you forecast the sack total at 2.1, then the fair value of Over 2.5 should be +165, instead it is -145. so you could have the Under 2.5 for +115 instead of the -185 that it should be.

At 2.1 fair value on o2.5 sacks is +185. You should be using Poisson for this. And yes, u2.5 +115 represents great value too. Which American accepting book do you see this at?

[statnerds]

At 2.1 fair value on o2.5 sacks is +185. You should be using Poisson for this. And yes, u2.5 +115 represents great value too. Which American accepting book do you see this at?

whatever day i first whined about having no value on it, BM had it at +115. it is now +100. 5D now has -105.

[donjuan]

Ah I missed the drop down on 5D.

Both good value, too.