Super Bowl XLIV: Prop Betting Q&A with Peter Loshak and Justin7 (video)

[Justin7]

It's still early. Props will come pouring out in a few more days.

[durito]

they are trickling out at greek

[saintjames]

saints27 colts24 OT

[JuicedUp]

great info fellas!

[tmorton]

My book still doesn't have any props yet

[aznguy888]

that soudns good

[Tsiggy Fresh]

Great bids

[Tsiggy Fresh]

I mean videos

[Tsiggy Fresh]

Vids stoopid iPod

[blackbart]

this is the year, ot, crowded bridges sunday night

[NDIrish9]

Props are fun

[TUDINH]

thanks for game nice

[bball4life700]

i am so cool.

[jmathes]

great breakdown guys!

[Crnjak]

this is great video!

[FreeFall]

what is the overtime prop at the greek called? I'm not finding it.

[statnerds]

searched high and low and cannot find a prop for either total punts or sacks. i imagine by the time i can bet under on sacks any crumb of value will be long gone.

15014 SAINTS-COLTS TOT SACKS
u3½-290

FUKK!!!!!!!!

[Justin7]

15014 SAINTS-COLTS TOT SACKS
u3½-290

FUKK!!!!!!!!

My fair line:
UND 3.0 sacks -400

There's plenty of value left on sack props. If the Poisson number is a little over 2...

[statnerds]

My fair line:
UND 3.0 sacks -400

There's plenty of value left on sack props. If the Poisson number is a little over 2...

first, i am conservative and high juice scares me off a lot of plays. i had the number at a little over 2 as well. we have the number 1 and 4 teams for sack % with Manning at 2.4% and Brees at 3.5%, and defenses in the bottom 3rd of the NFL in terms of getting to the QB. i was hoping for something around the -200 mark and that number shocked me.

you would lay -300 on a prop? that number is scary which i guess is what books do to squares like me to keep us off plays like this one.

the only thing that scares me is Brees getting sacked 5 times in Miami, which was an anomaly as he got sacked 15 times in his other 14 games. 3 of Manning's 10 sacks came from 5 games on grass, that is amazing. 10 sacks? the guy had nearly 600 attempts.

[Busterflywheel]

The big-hitting pros don't bother with props. It's a grind to bet props - if your bank is over a million, you'll find other things to do.

There will always be value in props. You'll have to pay more attention to when books come out, but it's out there.

Justin... Finally someone with same theory as me..A Ive stated several times on this board, Never play props, parlay, teasers etc as you can not consistently make money...Spreads and totals, 1 unit per bet across the board is the only way to stay profitable all year..

[donjuan]

Justin... Finally someone with same theory as me..A Ive stated several times on this board, Never play props, parlay, teasers etc as you can not consistently make money...Spreads and totals, 1 unit per bet across the board is the only way to stay profitable all year..

This is not only blatantly false but also has nothing to do with what Justin posted.

[donjuan]

first, i am conservative and high juice scares me off a lot of plays. i had the number at a little over 2 as well. we have the number 1 and 4 teams for sack % with Manning at 2.4% and Brees at 3.5%, and defenses in the bottom 3rd of the NFL in terms of getting to the QB. i was hoping for something around the -200 mark and that number shocked me.

you would lay -300 on a prop? that number is scary which i guess is what books do to squares like me to keep us off plays like this one.

the only thing that scares me is Brees getting sacked 5 times in Miami, which was an anomaly as he got sacked 15 times in his other 14 games. 3 of Manning's 10 sacks came from 5 games on grass, that is amazing. 10 sacks? the guy had nearly 600 attempts.

Why would you be scared to lay -300 on a prop?

[statnerds]

Why would you be scared to lay -300 on a prop?

because i fail to see value in laying 1 unit to win a third of a unit, or 3 units to win 1 unit. yes, that makes me a square, but we all know there is no such thing as a lock or a sure thing, although this one gets close. knowing this thing could/should land on 2 or 3 sacks is enough. makes me nervous that Manning went down twice in each playoff game after only 10 all year. however, with both teams only getting 1 sack in 2 games, i worry less.

i'd rather get +115 on Under 2.5.

Justin, you got a fair value on Under 2.5?

[donjuan]

because i fail to see value in laying 1 unit to win a third of a unit, or 3 units to win 1 unit. yes, that makes me a square, but we all know there is no such thing as a lock or a sure thing, although this one gets close. knowing this thing could/should land on 2 or 3 sacks is enough. makes me nervous that Manning went down twice in each playoff game after only 10 all year. however, with both teams only getting 1 sack in 2 games, i worry less.

Wow, an epic fail at EV, not to mention EG.

i'd rather get +115 on Under 2.5.

Justin, you got a fair value on Under 2.5?

Assuming Justin is using 2.1 for his expected sacks, fair value would be -185. See: http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx

[Dank_Fire]

Thanks for the insite Justin

[dinaro7]

losak i told you that bean town jim would watch your vid he said if you cant get laid bend over sounds queer to me

[statnerds]

Wow, an epic fail at EV, not to mention EG.

so you calculated the EV of Under 3.5 sacks at what exactly?

i stay away from huge ML Favs as well, even though there is ample evidence to suggest that their losses are very rare, but they do happen. i know a few professional types that say if the +EV is high enough, then there is no such thing as a ML that is too big. i say fukk that.

here is your big chance, break down the math behind your 3.5 Sacks EV and explain why -310 is a great steal...

can't fukking wait to see you stop posting in this thread now.

[all_wade]

thx

[The Seer]

Justin... Finally someone with same theory as me..A Ive stated several times on this board, Never play props, parlay, teasers etc as you can not consistently make money...Spreads and totals, 1 unit per bet across the board is the only way to stay profitable all year..

wtf?

[The Seer]

Wow Loshack, it's unbelievable how you can clean up, no more Poncho Villa look. This is one of the best vids you guys have made. SB props are a must for the serious bettor.

[donjuan]

Exp. sacks 2.1 means u3.5 83.8% of the time based on poisson. At -300 the edge on such a bet is


(33.33 * .838) - (100 * .162) = 11.73054

Passing up an 11.7% edge at -300 is beyond moronic if you have even the vaguest understanding of expected growth and Kelly.

[donjuan]

Also should be noted that I got -250 and -260 earlier today so you can do significantly better than -300.

[statnerds]

Exp. sacks 2.1 means u3.5 83.8% of the time based on poisson. At -300 the edge on such a bet is

and you came up with 2.1 how exactly? you can't just pull a number out of the fukking air. no way in hell you capped that number yourself.

Manning sacked 4 times in the last 2 games by two teams that finished behind New Orleans in sacks this season.

so 2.1 came from where?

[Dark Horse]

i know a few professional types that say if the +EV is high enough, then there is no such thing as a ML that is too big. i say fukk that. [/U]

The ML represents a percentage:

http://www.sbrforum.com//Betting+Tools/Odds+Converter.aspx

The only question that should matter is if you have an advantage or not.

[statnerds]

and if you forecast the sack total at 2.1, then the fair value of Over 2.5 should be +165, instead it is -145. so you could have the Under 2.5 for +115 instead of the -185 that it should be.