NEW Streak for the Cash

**yisman** · 07-11-10, 01:30 PM

Spain is a pretty big fave for SftC (like the other lopsided ones, this should've been spain w vs. netherlands win/draw), but I passed.

I picked Netherlands over Spain in the final before the round of 16, so I won't change now. That said, I'm not taking a big underdog with a W4.

**yisman** · 07-11-10, 04:39 PM

I bet there's an edge to be had on the Futures game, but I don't know enough about the players.

**yisman** · 07-11-10, 05:21 PM

I wish there would be nights like these when I'm at 0 or 1.

6:05 Futures

then three Sunday Night Baseball props.

Four picks in the span of 4 hours or so.

**losturmarbles** · 07-11-10, 06:38 PM

i think i'll go with yes, no, no on the props

**MexicanStallion** · 07-11-10, 06:43 PM

I avoided a loss. I had the Rockies marked down from last night, but pulled off early today and they lost. I would say yes HR. I don't like these props though for Sunday night. Yes, Yes No

**losturmarbles** · 07-11-10, 07:02 PM

yeah I saw you had a pick selected sometime earlier, then later saw you were still at 11. Figured you chickened out of picking Spain.

I might skip the HR prop unless Padilla fails to get a K

**yisman** · 07-11-10, 07:04 PM

I would go with:

no
yes
no

and that's my confidence. First one most confident, second second, and the third third.

**MexicanStallion** · 07-11-10, 07:07 PM

Originally posted by losturmarbles

yeah I saw you had a pick selected sometime earlier, then later saw you were still at 11. Figured you chickened out of picking Spain.

I might skip the HR prop unless Padilla fails to get a K

I would have went with Spain, but for the World Cup contest I had Netherlands, so I was torn with that.

**yisman** · 07-11-10, 07:14 PM

yeah. I had various things riding on the Netherlands too. Several contests.

Anyway, it looked like a no, but Padilla gets a K of Byrd to end the top of the 1st.

**yisman** · 07-11-10, 08:05 PM

wow, five active W8s or better in our group.

Crazy month. Doesn't look good for me.

**losturmarbles** · 07-11-10, 10:15 PM

I'm locking in

IFK Mariehamn: Win or Draw

for tomorrow

GL

**losturmarbles** · 07-12-10, 06:29 PM

For the HRD winner prop:
Pinny has
Cabrera +300/-346 (24.37%)
Ortiz +488/-588 (16.6%) down from +440/-540 (18%) earlier around 3pm

24.37%+16.6% = 40.97% ~ 41%

Any other contestant 59% fair odds

**losturmarbles** · 07-12-10, 06:30 PM

Ortiz just went up slightly to +477/-577 (16.9%)

**losturmarbles** · 07-12-10, 06:44 PM

bookmaker has Cabrera and Ortiz at higher probabilities, but their limits are only $250, pinny limits were 3k on the above props.

i'll figure up BM's odds in a minute.

**yisman** · 07-12-10, 06:48 PM

Pinnacle's odds are more accurate.

I think any other is the best pick, but I'm only at 2, so I'm considering a shorter prop.

**losturmarbles** · 07-12-10, 06:49 PM

BM odds:

7501 corey hart +450
7502 chris young +700
7503 david ortiz +200
7504 hanley ramirez +550
7505 matt holliday +450
7506 miguel cabrera ev
7507 nick swisher +400
7508 vernon wells +500

Percent Market: 184.25%
Theoretical Hold: 45.73%

**yisman** · 07-12-10, 06:53 PM

Bookmaker: Taking 'high vig book' to new levels.

**losturmarbles** · 07-12-10, 06:58 PM

if you take the vig out, they're about the same odds:

**losturmarbles** · 07-12-10, 07:39 PM

blindspoon @10 on mexi's tail is going to need Cabrera to have a BIG first round (14 or more) to stay alive.

One of the leaders @19 picked Cabrera 1st round also.

also one other leader @19 has "any other contestant" to win.

**yisman** · 07-12-10, 07:45 PM

so far looks like Hart will advance and Young and Wells won't.

Swisher not looking good, with only 4.

**MexicanStallion** · 07-12-10, 07:50 PM

Originally posted by losturmarbles

blindspoon @10 on mexi's tail is going to need Cabrera to have a BIG first round (14 or more) to stay alive.

One of the leaders @19 picked Cabrera 1st round also.

also one other leader @19 has "any other contestant" to win.

Blindspoon is not in this month's pool. Him, lucanicky, and Jasonal. Sammy is in the group, but he never joined yet. One poster is not in either, he dropped out but left the 20 points for the month.

**yisman** · 07-12-10, 08:34 PM

if I had to pick the last two, I'd say under (24.5) and under (5.5)

**lordswing** · 07-12-10, 08:55 PM

I usually use Pinny as the Win Prob on the Kelly Calculator. I did some of the 1st round match-ups and Pinny's vig came out to a ridiculous 3%

e: Go Hanley

**losturmarbles** · 07-12-10, 09:14 PM

yeah on both those pinny prop lines I listed, the total percent market was 102.6%.

Originally posted by MexicanStallion

Blindspoon is not in this month's pool. Him, lucanicky, and Jasonal. Sammy is in the group, but he never joined yet. One poster is not in either, he dropped out but left the 20 points for the month.

I forgot about that. good call.
You've got a nice lead then. So, I guess you're rooting for Ortiz. lol

**yisman** · 07-12-10, 09:20 PM

I would say I'm lucky I didn't pick them, but either way I won't have a winning streak going into tomorrow.

Ortiz looks like he's going to win.

**yisman** · 07-12-10, 09:53 PM

cycling prop is just like all the cycling props, really.

Two top favorites and three of the top four or five are Spanish, so that's why it's Spain vs. AOC. However, Spain only has about 15 (?) riders, so I think AOC will be my pick here.

**lordswing** · 07-12-10, 09:54 PM

Mexi looking really good now

going with la Furia

**losturmarbles** · 07-12-10, 10:07 PM

booo ortiz

oh well.

skipping that bicycling shit.

I'm probably picking Sligo Rovers:Win at 2:45.

Will pick the UEFA game before that, dunno who yet though...

**HustleGetPaid** · 07-12-10, 10:32 PM

My run starts tomorrow!!!

**MexicanStallion** · 07-12-10, 10:46 PM

I will probably pass tomorrow. I'll see what the WNBA line is later on and work from that. The only picks I really plan on making would be baseball full games, wnba, or ufc overall. I'm awful with soccer and tennis.

**goofyre** · 07-13-10, 05:34 PM

Cabrera didn't come through for me. I forgot to enter the points for this months and by the time I remembered I already had a decent streak and didn't think I could join. I'll just wait til next months.

**lordswing** · 07-13-10, 05:56 PM

Tempted to go Ubaldo no K in the 1st. Bodog has the o/u on his Ks at 1.5 -135/105, figure he pitches 2 innings?

**yisman** · 07-13-10, 06:36 PM

I'm leaning towards yes.

I also saw that line.

Yeah, the most likely thing is he pitches 2 innings, but if you're isolating an inning, I think a yes K is more likely than a no K

**losturmarbles** · 07-13-10, 07:18 PM

I'm going no k, just to fade the public

**yisman** · 07-13-10, 07:37 PM

espn seems to think this started at 8:10

to quote someone from the discussion

"I must be on the wrong channel. This doesn't appear to be a baseball game. Some sort of self-empowerment special"

8:37 and still no sign of the first pitch.