Anyone else thinking of playing exclusively at Rebatewager in 2010?

[MonkeyF0cker]

laker buddy i am not hating on him because of his record. i could care less about that. i am only basing it on his style of plays. he used to hammer everyone for playing into -ev plays all the time.. now i see his plays and 74% of his plays are -ev.. laker, this kid really has no clue what he's doing. this contest proved it all.. as predicted.. hes nothing but a square..

You really think I don't know that the Chicago Bulls +3 is a bad bet when it's +3.5 EVERYWHERE else in the world? LOL. Please.

[lakerboy]

Monkey why dont you make your plays closer to game time? Other then the obvious reasons

[MonkeyF0cker]

That's what I'll be doing now, lakerboy.

[jellobiafra]

I quit betting NHL totals and haven't used the other books with off numbers for a reason.

I respect that choice too, not that I think you really care what I think about your choices. Just wanted to say that for the record you have taken an admirable path in the contest even when afforded the opportunity to weasel out of the difficult parameters.



Pokernut - I think he enjoys playing a dick on the internet. From what I understand, he's not like this in real life.

Nicky - I'm sure he does a better job on his "real" bets than he is doing here. He has to. It's kind of obvious he's just throwing a bunch of shit out there. I guess we'll see if things change now that he says he's going to really try for a few games with edges.

[Nicky Santoro]

he can still win this thing easily. he is 25-32-1 as we speak.. He has to go 75-67 in his remaining 142 games. He has to hit 52.8%, which really isn't going to be that hard if he beats the closers consistently.

but i love how he's now taking everyone's advice on how to do this because he realized just now that he can't beat the closers.. He is trying new things each day. if he goes 5-9 the new way, he'll change his game plan again..lol what a square..

i was the only one on sbr that knew this guy was a square from day 1..

[jellobiafra]

Well I have to believe he was going off his numbers for the NCAAB picks, and thinking that he had a good shot at clearing 50% with those regardless of closers. They seem to have let him down. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and guess that this was just a blip for his model. That being said, there were a few head scratchers in those picks...especially that UMD game. You could accuse me of using the benefit of hindsight here, but I said something about that one as soon as it went on the board.

[WileOut]

Our limits are just another misconception about our product. Your max wager on your initial deposit cannot eceed 50% of your deposit amount. After 30 days you can reuest higher limts which are in line with most recreational books.

So if you deposit 500 bucks you can only wager 250 per game. I'm like Richie sometimes I like to bet a lot. I don't even like Legends $500 limits. Not because I bet more than $500 a game regularly, but when I see a game I want to bet a lot (more than $500) on, I need to have the ability to do that immediately.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Whose advice have I taken, Nicky? LOL. What on Earth are you talking about?

[Nicky Santoro]

That's what I'll be doing now, lakerboy.

this advice here from lakerboy regarding betting closer to game time.

[MonkeyF0cker]

LOL. I had already planned on that, Nicky. It's not much of a secret that steam chasing is easier to do right before the close.

[pokernut9999]

So if you deposit 500 bucks you can only wager 250 per game. I'm like Richie sometimes I like to bet a lot. I don't even like Legends $500 limits. Not because I bet more than $500 a game regularly, but when I see a game I want to bet a lot (more than $500) on, I need to have the ability to do that immediately.

If you want to bet more deposit more.

It is a safeguard on the rebate side and limits can be increased after 30 days.

If you bybass the rebate I am sure you can bet your whole deposit.

[onthewhat]

LOL. I had already planned on that, Nicky. It's not much of a secret that steam chasing is easier to do right before the close.

Weren't you the guy that made fun of people who chased steam because it was so easy to do

[MonkeyF0cker]

All I was doing was playing opinions. No numbers. That was the point of this whole thing. When everyone (including you) cried that using edges was basically cheating, I decided there wasn't much point to it and that I'd simply play it out as a 50% equity shot. But now I figure it can serve as a good example of the difference between opinion and numbers.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Weren't you the guy that made fun of people who chased steam because it was so easy to do

Like I said, I can't devote a ton of my time on this thing. It's the easiest way to exemplify the differences.

[Nicky Santoro]

you know what's so sad, is that i know you like a book lets say IF you lose this contest and hit 48%, you will have an excuse and say it was because you didnt' chase steam or else you would have won for sure

and lets say IF i had the chance to do this too, and i played edges and lets say i hit 53% and won. you will come back and say, well duh... of course you won, because you chased steam and anyone can do that.. and you'll say, if i wanted, i could have done that too, but i played fair..lol.. you'll have some excuse for sure..

you see, that's typical you.. i've been booted by tons of books offshore for chasing steam and when you found out, you'd mock me and say, your grandmother can chase steam, it's so easy.. yet you can't even do it in this contest yourself..

[jellobiafra]

All I was doing was playing opinions. No numbers.

Are you saying they were all blind "gut" plays?

If so, I'm not sure if this passes the smell test but I'll give you the benefit of doubt again.

But now I figure it can serve as a good example of the difference between opinion and numbers.

No excuses after this, though. Good luck.

[onthewhat]

Jello, the only way to be called a "sharp" on this forum is to never post a pick. Everyone who has posted picks loses, including Monkey now.

[jellobiafra]

Jello, the only way to be called a "sharp" on this forum is to never post a pick. Everyone who has posted picks loses, including Monkey now.

Yeah, I'm really having trouble with this passing the smell test. Why is he just now telling us that these were all "opinion" plays. He's been defending them as if they were bound to turn around and finish in the black from day 1.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see if there is truly a difference in results going forward.

[MonkeyF0cker]

you know what's so sad, is that i know you like a book lets say IF you lose this contest and hit 48%, you will have an excuse and say it was because you didnt' chase steam or else you would have won for sure

and lets say IF i had the chance to do this too, and i played edges and lets say i hit 53% and won. you will come back and say, well duh... of course you won, because you chased steam and anyone can do that.. and you'll say, if i wanted, i could have done that too, but i played fair..lol.. you'll have some excuse for sure..

you see, that's typical you.. i've been booted by tons of books offshore for chasing steam and when you found out, you'd mock me and say, your grandmother can chase steam, it's so easy.. yet you can't even do it in this contest yourself..

I said I was going to start steam chasing a few plays a day now. It's really not hard. At all. You were the one who gave me the most shit for playing NHL totals when that was by far the biggest edge I could play. I really didn't want to deal with the bullshit on a daily basis for 2 months after the first day. So I did what I did.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Jan 03 301 IND COLTS +9-125
1:00PM 302 BUF BILLS

[lakerboy]

Guys the way he has been posting it is quite apparent he wants to finish this quickly. No matter what he way he does it he cant win. If he posts early and it moves against him he is called square. If he posts 5 min before start he is a cheater. HOw does he win please tell me.

[MrMonkey]

Well I have to believe he was going off his numbers for the NCAAB picks, and thinking that he had a good shot at clearing 50% with those regardless of closers. They seem to have let him down. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and guess that this was just a blip for his model. That being said, there were a few head scratchers in those picks...especially that UMD game. You could accuse me of using the benefit of hindsight here, but I said something about that one as soon as it went on the board.

Look, I know zero about the math stuff with regards to finding the edges! If you can't just win 54-55% at -110 odds, then I might as well give this shit up now! The way people talk it just sounds all predetermined! I'm screwed!

Getting to Jello's comment, that was my first thought! W & M upset my Richmond team. Then they go on the road to beat Wake! Then they beat VCU! I'm thinking to myself, maybe this isn't a last placed CAA team? Maryland hadn't beaten anybody yet? Just think that -12.5 line wasn't an easy one like people perceived? I really want the Monkey to do well, as Al Davis would say "just win baby". Good luck Monkey and turn this thing around!

[Nicky Santoro]

hey monkey, get the fukk out of this thread.. now!!!!!!!..

1 monkey is enough.. i can't handle 2..

[MrMonkey]

hey monkey, get the fukk out of this thread.. now!!!!!!!..

1 monkey is enough.. i can't handle 2..

Nickaayy!!!

[jellobiafra]

Guys the way he has been posting it is quite apparent he wants to finish this quickly. No matter what he way he does it he cant win. If he posts early and it moves against him he is called square. If he posts 5 min before start he is a cheater. HOw does he win please tell me.

He could post 50.5% winners. I don't care how he does it. Betting -140 and -150 hockey totals would have been sketchy, but since he's honorably abandoned that strategy I don't think anybody is going to give him shit about when he makes his plays.


MrMonkey - the UMD play was strange for logical reasons but also from a guy who uses statistical modeling it seemed very strange. I don't know what system told him UMD -12.5 was a good value, but whatever it was he needs to do some tinkering. Maybe it was just a "gut" play, in which case the reasons you listed against it were evident.

But enough with the postmortem over one play. I'm sure MF realizes that one was a big whiff. He's had some nice wins too, just a lot more losses in NCAAB than I would have expected so far. Of course the sample size makes these completely insignificant.

[Richkas]

Jan 03 301 IND COLTS +9-125
1:00PM 302 BUF BILLS

[onthewhat]

Richie he is lucky he didn't lose -1.25 units on that one...

[jellobiafra]

Wait. Wasn't that one supposed to have an "edge"?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Jan 03 701 IND PACERS +9½-110
6:05PM 702 NY KNICKS

[MonkeyF0cker]

Jan 03 701 IND PACERS o208½-110
6:05PM 702 NY KNICKS

[MrX]

I said I was going to start steam chasing a few plays a day now. It's really not hard. At all. You were the one who gave me the most shit for playing NHL totals when that was by far the biggest edge I could play. I really didn't want to deal with the bullshit on a daily basis for 2 months after the first day. So I did what I did.

And aren't you glad that all of the B.S. is behind us now?

[MonkeyF0cker]

LOL. Did you know that 2-3% edges are always supposed to win, MrX? I learned that today. I also learned that I didn't actually ever post plays on SBR before...

http://monkeyf0cker.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

[Chi_archie]

common

[MonkeyF0cker]

Are the Knicks gonna score 180 tonight? LOL.

[Chi_archie]

this guy is sharp as a knife