president futures are paying big

[semibluff]

@JohnGalt2341, I am aware of your previous success and prowess in this field. I still have your 2020 thread in my bookmarks for data references.

[homie1975]

Here is the 270towin dot com interactive state map

https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast

Originally they had both NC and GA as non-aligned toss-up states. They altered NC to leaning Republican some months ago. they moved GA the same way about 2 weeks ago. This currently gives Trump 251 electoral college votes. PA has 19 votes and 270 are needed to win. If the current map holds true PA gets Trump to 270 even if he loses MI, WI, NV, & AZ. MI and WI are believed to lean about 1% more towards the Democrats than PA does. Conventional wisdom suggests if the Democrats take PA they'll take MI and WI as well. Those 3 states would put them on 270.

Shapiro is a short price to be the VP purely because of the importance of PA. However, since a huge amount of resources are going to be thrown at PA and overkill campaigning it is questionable as to whether making Shapiro the VP will have an impact, (since he will be constantly campaigning there alongside Harris anyway). Maybe it makes a 1% difference, and if the Democrats think it will he should be the pick. However, Shapiro's Jewish heritage may counteract his otherwise positive influence potentially making MI & WI less blue. It's a marginal call.

The amount of votes a party won the last election by isn't really the issue. How close the votes were in percentage terms is more telling. In 2020 the Democrats won: GA by 0.3%, AZ by 0.4%, WI by 0.6%, PA by 1.2%, NV by 2.4%, MI by 2.8%. Trump won NC by 1.3%.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president

Good luck to everyone with whoever they bet on.

just click through the map and make everything that leans red, RED.

now click through and make everything that leans blue, BLUE.

270 to 268, Harris wins.

this election is going to be extremely close Electorally. there is a decent chance (much greater chance than we have seen in decades) of a 269-269 tie.

nebraska and maine with the split electorals, will decide if it will be 270-268 or 269-269 tie.

[k13]

Harris is losing every swing state by 5-10% in reality not polls.

[k13]

Also... in PA... Bovada currently has it at:

Democrat +170

Republican -230

But BetOnline currently has PA at:

Democrat -105

Republican -135

So... there is some nice value here SOMEWHERE. Bovada will only let me bet $10 on this(it might be different for others). But one of these Lines(or both) is DEFINITELY not sharp. I tend to think the BetOnline Line is MUCH more sharp here.

semibluff may very well be right in that... whoever wins PA, wins the election.

Polymarket has Trump 60% and they'll take huge bets

These Mickey mouse books don't count.

[Itsamazing777]

Harris is losing every swing state by 5-10% in reality not polls.

[JohnGalt2341]

Also... in PA... Bovada currently has it at:

Democrat +170

Republican -230

But BetOnline currently has PA at:

Democrat -105

Republican -135

So... there is some nice value here SOMEWHERE. Bovada will only let me bet $10 on this(it might be different for others). But one of these Lines(or both) is DEFINITELY not sharp. I tend to think the BetOnline Line is MUCH more sharp here.

semibluff may very well be right in that... whoever wins PA, wins the election.

Polymarket has Trump 60% and they'll take huge bets

These Mickey mouse books don't count.

Look at my post again that you responded to. I am talking about PA(Pennsylvania) here!!! So you're saying Polymarket has PA at 60% for Trump???

Here's the current PA price at Polymarket:



It's obvious to me why you support Trump.

Also, in early July of 2020 I started a thread with the State by State No-Vig% odds according to 5Dimes and BetOnline. They got 48 out of 50 correct(including DC, and FL was priced evenly). I plan to do something similar this time around within the next couple of weeks or so. I am planning on using Bovada(I do realize they may not be sharp) because they have Odds for all 50 States. But if anyone has any suggestions to use another Book(They MUST have Odds for all 50 States or else I will not use them), let me know!

Btw, here's that thread that I started 4 years ago:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3608962-2020-election-state-pick-5-upsets-win-500-points.html

And again... I NEVER ONCE EVER SAID that Trump won't win the election. My primary goal in this thread is to help you guys win some money!!!

[JohnGalt2341]

Polymarket has Trump 60% and they'll take huge bets

These Mickey mouse books don't count.

I think Kamala for Popular Vote has some value here at +110.

Here you go buddy, I have a question for you, would you say KH at +110 for Popular Vote is a GOOD value or not? Btw, here's Kamala's Popular Vote percentage at Polymarket.



If you don't get this right, you should NEVER EVER EVER BET ON ANYTHING... EVER!!!!!(I suspect that you probably shouldn't)

You do trust Polymarket, don't you? If you want, I can do the MATH for you. I don't mind, although it may be over your head. But I'll do my best to make it simple.

[DA_MOSS]

just click through the map and make everything that leans red, RED.

now click through and make everything that leans blue, BLUE.

270 to 268, Harris wins.

this election is going to be extremely close Electorally. there is a decent chance (much greater chance than we have seen in decades) of a 269-269 tie.

nebraska and maine with the split electorals, will decide if it will be 270-268 or 269-269 tie.

😂 😂 😂

[Itsamazing777]

Electoral map based on current betting odds per state

Trump in a landslide.

[johnnyvegas13]

I still don’t think it’s gonna b Kamala

clinton or whitemer

[asiagambler]

I still don’t think it’s gonna b Kamala

clinton or whitemer

johnny it will be Kamala. You owe me 150 points

[blankoblanco]

I still don’t think it’s gonna b Kamala

clinton or whitemer

Sometimes it seems like a lot of you don't understand the difference between "thinking" and "hoping." It's bizarre

If you don't think it's gonna be Kamala as the nominee, then bet huge against her right now and make a ton of money at a great price. Somehow I know you won't do that, so I don't believe you really think that

[johnnyvegas13]

Sometimes it seems like a lot of you don't understand the difference between the words "think" and "hope." It's bizarre

If you don't think it's gonna be Kamala as the nominee, then bet against her right now and make a ton of money at a great price. Somehow I know you won't do that, so I don't believe you really think that

I do have both of those 100-1 each

[jackpot269]

Look at my post again that you responded to. I am talking about PA(Pennsylvania) here!!! So you're saying Polymarket has PA at 60% for Trump???

Here's the current PA price at Polymarket:



It's obvious to me why you support Trump.

Also, in early July of 2020 I started a thread with the State by State No-Vig% odds according to 5Dimes and BetOnline. They got 48 out of 50 correct(including DC, and FL was priced evenly). I plan to do something similar this time around within the next couple of weeks or so. I am planning on using Bovada(I do realize they may not be sharp) because they have Odds for all 50 States. But if anyone has any suggestions to use another Book(They MUST have Odds for all 50 States or else I will not use them), let me know!

Btw, here's that thread that I started 4 years ago:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3608962-2020-election-state-pick-5-upsets-win-500-points.html

And again... I NEVER ONCE EVER SAID that Trump won't win the election. My primary goal in this thread is to help you guys win some money!!!

Because he can't even read odds?

[TheGoldenGoose]

Electoral map based on current betting odds per state
Trump in a landslide.

Playing around with the electoral map I came to the same conclusion that the race will be decided by MI, PA, & WI. But what if Harris throws a monkey wrench into the equation by tapping Mark Kelly of AZ for VP? Harris needs both MI & PA. If she loses either one she is toast.

[JohnGalt2341]

I think Kamala for Popular Vote has some value here at +110. The one I really like is Rep Pres/Dem Popular vote at +225. I would price that at around +150 or so. We shall see.

This is interesting to me. The post above is from 8 days ago. I like the Republican Presidency/Dem Popular Vote price at +225. As you can see below, Kamala's Popular Vote price has changed fairly dramatically(she is now a decent favorite, where as before she was a small dog). But because Trump's overall chances of winning the election have DECREASED, the Rep prez/Dem Popular Vote price is even better than it was before!!! I really like this price below at +255. IMO, you are basically getting Trump for +255, which is one hell of a bargain if you ask me. Unfortunately, Bovada will only let me bet $4 on this. But I've smoked them pretty bad in the past. So... I'm guessing most of you will be able to wager more than $4 on this. If any of you wager on this... let me know how much they allow you to bet!!

[Itsamazing777]

This is interesting to me. The post above is from 8 days ago. I like the Republican Presidency/Dem Popular Vote price at +225. As you can see below, Kamala's Popular Vote price has changed fairly dramatically(she is now a decent favorite, where as before she was a small dog). But because Trump's overall chances of winning the election have DECREASED, the Rep prez/Dem Popular Vote price is even even better than it was before!!! I really like this price below at +255. IMO, you are basically getting Trump for +255, which is one hell of a bargain if you ask me. Unfortunately, Bovada will only let me bet $4 on this. But I've smoked them pretty bad in the past. So... I'm guessing most of you will be able to wager more than $4 on this. If any of you wager on this... let me know how much they allow you to bet!!

I think it's a great price and a decent bet.

[d2bets]

Playing around with the electoral map I came to the same conclusion that the race will be decided by MI, PA, & WI. But what if Harris throws a monkey wrench into the equation by tapping Mark Kelly of AZ for VP? Harris needs both MI & PA. If she loses either one she is toast.

Maybe. But what if she flips Georgia? Or North Carolina?

[jackpot269]

Maybe. But what if she flips Georgia? Or North Carolina?

Florida will be closer than people think. Abortion is on the ticket; it will bring out a lot of people that don't usually vote. High turnout favors the left.

[JohnGalt2341]

Election Odds Update:

At BetOnline:



That's approximately 55.43% for the Reps. Here's Bovada:



That's approximately 55.64% for the Reps. And here's Polymarket:



To me, it looks like they are all pretty much in agreement. My question for you "Honeymooners"(I've recently learned that this is a very popular saying among Trump supporters), approximately when do you expect this "Honeymoon" period to come to an end? And IF/when it does, do you expect the Lines to move back the other way, and by how much?

My prediction is... at some point it WILL stop. But I don't expect the Lines to move back the other way(very little at most, if at all). AND, it wouldn't surprise me entirely if this "Honeymoon" period keeps going all the way up to the election. Trump might be a small dog a day or 2 before the election. We shall see. If you think I am wrong... feel free to let me know!!!

[seymour]

Florida will be closer than people think. Abortion is on the ticket; it will bring out a lot of people that don't usually vote. High turnout favors the left.

Have you lost ur mind? All of the Republicans from the Northeast moved to FL during COVID - FL is the reddest of red states - factor in, no one can afford FL as it has seen 10 fold inflation compared to other states due to the cost of housing - Harris would be smart to spend no money in FL and use it in the rust belt

[blankoblanco]

Just to add to the Florida discussion: I live here, in a somewhat rural area (small town an hour north of Tampa) and I feel pretty convinced that Trump has the state won. That is just the vibe I get. But of course I'm not as in touch with key areas like Miami that are more blue. All I can say is that I'd be very surprised if Florida doesn't go red. I hope I'm wrong

[asiagambler]

Is Miami even a Democratic stronghold anymore ?

I think most Cubans are Republican

[blankoblanco]

Is Miami even a Democratic stronghold anymore ?

I think most Cubans are Republican

I believe Miami/Dade County still leans blue, but you're right that it's probably not a stronghold for Democrats the way it used to be. All the more reason to think Florida will be red

[seymour]

I believe Miami/Dade County still leans blue, but you're right that it's probably not a stronghold for Democrats the way it used to be. All the more reason to think Florida will be red

Biden barely won Miami-Dade County in 2020 - Hillary beat Trump by about 25% in 2016 - Trump will win Miami this year

[asiagambler]

Yes Florida is a pipedream for Democrats

If Florida goes blue then there's something seriously wrong with the polling system in place or there's something else improper going on

[jackpot269]

Have you lost ur mind? All of the Republicans from the Northeast moved to FL during COVID - FL is the reddest of red states - factor in, no one can afford FL as it has seen 10 fold inflation compared to other states due to the cost of housing - Harris would be smart to spend no money in FL and use it in the rust belt

Saying closer than people think means I've lost my mind?

Nope, you put abortion on the ticket it will have an effect on the other races up and down the ballot.

You have lost yours. You said all these people moved there, but then you said no one could afford to live there.

Reddest of red. What? Not even close must have lost your mind.

2020 results
Florida GOP won 51.2 .... 47.9

Alabama GOP won 62 ......36.6

Tenn GOP won .... 60.7 ..... 37.4

OLK GOP won ..... 65.4 ...32.3

Florida not even close to the reddest of red. There are several more with like numbers.

I see why you only have 67 posts in 17 years. 07 is the best class.

[jackpot269]

Yes Florida is a pipedream for Democrats

If Florida goes blue then there's something seriously wrong with the polling system in place or there's something else improper going on

Who said it was going blue.

If you, or the other poster don't think abortion will bring out people who usually don't vote, you don't understand how passionate people are about the subject. Of course, if a democrat gets one vote in the whole country it was rigged, sorry improper. Donald Trump the biggest crybaby in POTUS history.

[jackpot269]

Just to add to the Florida discussion: I live here, in a somewhat rural area (small town an hour north of Tampa) and I feel pretty convinced that Trump has the state won. That is just the vibe I get. But of course I'm not as in touch with key areas like Miami that are more blue. All I can say is that I'd be very surprised if Florida doesn't go red. I hope I'm wrong

blanco my friend, you don't think that abortion will bring out a lot of voters that otherwise would not have voted.

And to be clear I never said it would be blue, I said closer than people think. I would never make a call like that.

[JIBBBY]

The Kamala Harris Honeymoon continues. Will wear off soon as she will get exposed soon for who she really is and what she has been during her time as VP, which was nothing.

Kamala is riding her skin color and gender status for now. Obama did that and won the Presidency but he actually had likeable talent and was a masterful speaker. I think she gets exposed on her failed policies in the first debate with Trump for the Nation to see.

MY MONEY IS STILL ON TRUMP with the odds..

[semibluff]

Election Odds Update:

At BetOnline:



That's approximately 55.43% for the Reps. Here's Bovada:



That's approximately 55.64% for the Reps. And here's Polymarket:



To me, it looks like they are all pretty much in agreement. My question for you "Honeymooners"(I've recently learned that this is a very popular saying among Trump supporters), approximately when do you expect this "Honeymoon" period to come to an end? And IF/when it does, do you expect the Lines to move back the other way, and by how much?

My prediction is... at some point it WILL stop. But I don't expect the Lines to move back the other way(very little at most, if at all). AND, it wouldn't surprise me entirely if this "Honeymoon" period keeps going all the way up to the election. Trump might be a small dog a day or 2 before the election. We shall see. If you think I am wrong... feel free to let me know!!!

The 'Honeymoon' is the period where all Harris has do is say: "I'm a woman, i'm black, i'm not Biden, and i'm sure as Hell not Donald J. Trump". We've seen the new sign-ups and the new money come in. This is from the Bernie Sanders supporters and 3rd party supporters who wouldn't support Biden. For the moment Harris has both the pro-Biden-anti-Sanders support and pro-Sanders-anti-Biden support. At most this honeymoon lasts 2 weeks into August, and maybe a week less. After that Harris will be pressed on policy and whether she really is the most left wing liberal senator in the Democratic party or whether she's running on Biden's agenda. She'll claim to be something new and both of those things, but at some point either the traditional or the new supporters will become disillusioned. I expect to see some support slipping away at the end of August/start of September. Polls 7-10 days into September will show whether she's keeping the support or whether it's falling apart.

[str]

Polls in July and August are like your horse a head in front at the 1/8th pole. It pays nothing at that point. And are you just hanging on or in hand and in command?

A lot of blunders left and that not so surprising October surprise.

People get all exited day to day but the race is just starting.

GL with your picks.

[JohnGalt2341]

The 'Honeymoon' is the period where all Harris has do is say: "I'm a woman, i'm black, i'm not Biden, and i'm sure as Hell not Donald J. Trump". We've seen the new sign-ups and the new money come in. This is from the Bernie Sanders supporters and 3rd party supporters who wouldn't support Biden. For the moment Harris has both the pro-Biden-anti-Sanders support and pro-Sanders-anti-Biden support. At most this honeymoon lasts 2 weeks into August, and maybe a week less. After that Harris will be pressed on policy and whether she really is the most left wing liberal senator in the Democratic party or whether she's running on Biden's agenda. She'll claim to be something new and both of those things, but at some point either the traditional or the new supporters will become disillusioned. I expect to see some support slipping away at the end of August/start of September. Polls 7-10 days into September will show whether she's keeping the support or whether it's falling apart.

Good point! Just to be clear, I am no fan of KH... at all, but I do think she is better than both Biden and Trump, but she's still awful. What I highlighted in bold, I think that alone MIGHT be enough to get her elected, or at least make it VERY VERY close. My main disagreement with you is that her numbers will begin to slip(I think they might a little, but not much) at some point. I expect this to be VERY close to a coin flip by election time. I could most definitely be wrong though.

[JohnGalt2341]

Here you go boys... I think some of you might like this Rep price at BetOnline:



That's a No-Vig % of 51.69% for the Reps. I'm almost even tempted to take this price above. BUT, I suspect that it will continue to move.

How about this Trump Popular Vote price below:



I wouldn't bet on the price above myself, but I would think at least some of you would REALLY like it.

Polymarket isn't too far off from BetOnline:



Looks like a pretty tight race to me. Do you think you'll be able to get better numbers on Trump in the weeks to come... or possibly EVER? I do, but maybe not by much.

[asiagambler]

Who said it was going blue.

If you, or the other poster don't think abortion will bring out people who usually don't vote, you don't understand how passionate people are about the subject. Of course, if a democrat gets one vote in the whole country it was rigged, sorry improper. Donald Trump the biggest crybaby in POTUS history.

Sounds like wishful thinking