president futures are paying big

[JohnGalt2341]

I just cant believe so many people don't think Harris has no chance. She is going to bring a lot of energy to this race. It comes down to independent voters. They don't have an old guy to vote for now. You can put it on Foxnews it wont matter. He will still look so bad. Why do Americans love a rich guy that just uses his supporters money? I feel if you rich or you have a problem with authority are they people voting for this SOB.

BetOnline is giving her roughly a 36% chance at the moment. I honestly expect this to be around 40% or so by election time. I could be wrong.

[DanteNemonic]

Kamala looking to expand America's Energy Boom even more. After setting records in the Oil and Gas Industry the last 4 years she's also looking to add more Wind and Solar. America will not be stopped. We are #1! 🇺🇲🤗

Line moving way down now. Need to add an astronaut to the ticket.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61584

[blankoblanco]

BetOnline is giving her roughly a 36% chance at the moment. I honestly expect this to be around 40% or so by election time. I could be wrong.

I would definitely agree that Harris's chances are more likely to go up than down.

It's also interesting to think about how much of the attack on Biden for months has been about his age and cognitive ability. It didn't matter if Trump had a few of his own mental lapses because he was clearly so much sharper than Biden. But now all of that flips on him, and he's the elderly guy whose mental faculties could be a bit compromised vs. a younger, sharper opponent.

If the Dems do find a win, it will be in large part because the Republicans spent a ton of their energy touting a strength that turned into a weakness as soon as the candidate changed

[JIBBBY]

I would definitely agree that Harris's chances are more likely to go up than down.

It's also interesting to think about how much of the attack on Biden for months has been about his age and cognitive ability. It didn't matter if Trump had a few of his own mental lapses because he was clearly so much sharper than Biden. But now all of that flips on him, and he's the elderly guy whose mental faculties could be a bit compromised vs. a younger, sharper opponent.

If the Dems do find a win, it will be in large part because the Republicans spent a ton of their energy touting a strength that turned into a weakness as soon as the candidate changed

Harris was polling lower then Biden for the longest time though.. She failed at her only job as VP on the border also. Her staff hated her. This will all come out in Trump ads to bash Kamala. If they debate she will get called out on all that.

[TheMetsSuck]

Her main job was to take care of the border as VP. Complete disaster. Trump looked pretty good playing Bryson in that golf challenge. He would’ve beat Biden by 80 strokes if they played

[DwightShrute]

I would definitely agree that Harris's chances are more likely to go up than down.

It's also interesting to think about how much of the attack on Biden for months has been about his age and cognitive ability. It didn't matter if Trump had a few of his own mental lapses because he was clearly so much sharper than Biden. But now all of that flips on him, and he's the elderly guy whose mental faculties could be a bit compromised vs. a younger, sharper opponent.

If the Dems do find a win, it will be in large part because the Republicans spent a ton of their energy touting a strength that turned into a weakness as soon as the candidate changed

except she's not sharper than Trump. Not even close. We've all seen and heard her speak.

[super mario 48]

Jews vote over 70% for Democrats.
You can't turn a Jew or a black vote.

They can talk all they want, at the end they'll always vote the same way. You can put a corpse as a candidate.

-10000 you are neither a Jew, a person of African-American descent, nor a Democrat
+2000 other

[JohnGalt2341]

I think Kamala for Popular Vote has some value here at +110. The one I really like is Rep Pres/Dem Popular vote at +225. I would price that at around +150 or so. We shall see.

Kamala Line for Popular Vote is already moving.

[JohnGalt2341]

Well that didn't take long at all. It was -140 yesterday. Get it while you can boys! This is your 2nd chance at a good price! Consider this a gift! It won't be long until it moves back the other way! Mark my words!

The Line above was the next several days AFTER Trump was shot at. This is the Line now:



Anyone surprised? You shouldn't be.

[JohnGalt2341]

As a matter of fact I have. This is my feeling, most people have VERY short term memories. E.g. Trump did NOTHING for 3+ hours when the Capitol building was being destroyed, and the people's lives who worked in that building were in grave danger. Trump could have made a public statement or even a tweet, but he did NOTHING. It was only after some prodding after several hours that he FINALLY made a very pathetic statement. I could name a thousand other examples, like his fake elector scheme just to name one. His supporters don't give a shit about any of that. Trump said he weighed 215lbs for Christ sake. If he lies about something that even his own supporters know he is lying about, what other stuff that is MUCH MUCH more important do you think he is lying about? His supporters don't give a shit.

Biden is pathetic, this is true. But come election time, IMO the majority of this country will be voting either for or against Trump. People won't be thinking about how pathetic Biden was during the debates, nor how many lies Trump told during the debates for that matter.

The only thing that I was hesitant about is pulling the trigger too soon on this. After the 2nd debate, there is a very good chance that the Dems Popular Vote price will be VERY nice. However, right before the election I believe it will be much closer to reality. These prices often move after debates or major events, but usually people soon forget about these things and the Lines move back the other way. Just my opinion. I guess we'll find out if I am right or wrong.

The post above is from July 5th. Do you think there is any truth to what is in bold? Remember that for future political wagers.

[semibluff]

Harris isn't accustomed to being in an intense spotlight 24/7 for 100+ days. She's relatively inexperienced, (nationally), and she has no political ideology. This is her honeymoon period. People will hold her to a higher standard than Trump. She's 60-years-old and she's going to make mistakes. I expect her popularity to wane over the coming 3+ months.

[asiagambler]

Harris isn't accustomed to being in an intense spotlight 24/7 for 100+ days. She's relatively inexperienced, (nationally), and she has no political ideology. This is her honeymoon period. People will hold her to a higher standard than Trump. She's 60-years-old and she's going to make mistakes. I expect her popularity to wane over the coming 3+ months.

She has a far left ideology. That's why she's a worse candidate than Biden who's more of a moderate

I'm beginning to think she really could be a placeholder until the convention. Maybe she was chosen initially to deal with campaign finance laws headaches

[JohnGalt2341]

Harris isn't accustomed to being in an intense spotlight 24/7 for 100+ days. She's relatively inexperienced, (nationally), and she has no political ideology. This is her honeymoon period. People will hold her to a higher standard than Trump. She's 60-years-old and she's going to make mistakes. I expect her popularity to wane over the coming 3+ months.

I will be VERY surprised if you are correct about this. And it has little to nothing to do with Kamala as an individual. Here are some truths... people like a familiar face. Meaning... the more often they see a face, the more likely they are to trick themselves into believing that they like that person. Kamala has been in the background until now. She's already winning the popular vote as of right now. I highly doubt that she will become less popular.

Also, I think the chances of Trump doing better vs Kamala than he did vs Biden in a debate are slim to none. Kamala's odds/chances are only going to improve as time goes on as she will be in the limelight MUCH more than she ever was before. This election might be close to a coin flip come election time. I could be wrong. We shall see.

[blankoblanco]

except she's not sharper than Trump. Not even close. We've all seen and heard her speak.

Well, I think she's certainly more mentally sharp/spry, and she's not going to go blank the way that a 78 year old might.

That being said, Kamala Harris hasn't convinced me she's particularly smart. At times I do wonder if she's a bit dumb. On the other hand, my personal belief is that Donald Trump is and has always been a complete moron. I'm not trying to convince you or anyone else to agree with me, just saying where I'm at.

[JohnGalt2341]

They know it's a loser that's why. Trump will win the popular vote, AND the electoral vote. Most likely the biggest landslide since Reagan. America is tired of failed liberal policies.

Kind of agree with Jibby.

But think it's more that democrats are not inspired to go out and vote if the election was held now. Rather than turning on Biden.

I don't see a path for them to turn that around with Biden or Harris as the candidate so do think Trump will take the popular vote.

Here you go boys... this is at BetOnline. You can bet up to $200 to win $350.



I don't recommend betting either one of these btw. I think this is priced about right IMO. But I would think that some of you guys would be SLOBBERING over this, especially you Trumpers(not you Opti, but I would think you would like this price considering what you wrote). Any takers?

[DwightShrute]

Well, I think she's certainly more mentally sharp/spry, and she's not going to go blank the way that a 78 year old might.

That being said, Kamala Harris hasn't convinced me she's particularly smart. At times I do wonder if she's a bit dumb. On the other hand, my personal belief is that Donald Trump is and has always been a complete moron. I'm not trying to convince you or anyone else to agree with me, just saying where I'm at.

I get that and I don't think anyone has ever truly thought they could convince anyone else about another politician. Perhaps occasionally there are agreements on a subject but that's rare.

I am willing to bet if you were strapped to a lie detector, you would fail if the question was "do you thing Trump is a moron" and you answered YES. I believe you don't like the guy. I don't believe you think he's a moron.

Kamala isn't very sharp. She's not competent. I can say this because I have seen her speak many times and she's failed at being VP. She could be a nice person in private life but she is bad for the country and hopefully will never be president. I sure hope not. I am hoping there are enough smart people eligible to vote that they will not allow Kamala to win in November. She will be an even bigger laughing stock in the world than Biden is. Voting for someone because of their skin color and genitals is insane, but that seems to be the ONLY criteria for too many radicals.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">&quot;I am telling you, America is not going to elect this nimrod, as its first female president.&quot;<a href="https://twitter.com/megynkelly?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MegynKe lly</a> reacts to the immediate push to make Harris the definitive candidate. Watch the livestream ➡: <a href="https://t.co/3Glw20cJBW">https://t.co/3Glw20cJBW</a> <a href="https://t.co/teHjy2fUtt">pic.twitter.com/teHjy2fUtt</a></p>&mdash; The Megyn Kelly Show (@MegynKellyShow) <a href="https://twitter.com/MegynKellyShow/status/1815159039225126964?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >July 21, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Itsamazing777]

[Itsamazing777]

[JohnGalt2341]

I get that and I don't think anyone has ever truly thought they could convince anyone else about another politician. Perhaps occasionally there are agreements on a subject but that's rare.

I am willing to bet if you were strapped to a lie detector, you would fail if the question was "do you thing Trump is a moron" and you answered YES. I believe you don't like the guy. I don't believe you think he's a moron.

Kamala isn't very sharp. She's not competent. I can say this because I have seen her speak many times and she's failed at being VP. She could be a nice person in private life but she is bad for the country and hopefully will never be president. I sure hope not. I am hoping there are enough smart people eligible to vote that they will not allow Kamala to win in November. She will be an even bigger laughing stock in the world than Biden is. Voting for someone because of their skin color and genitals is insane, but that seems to be the ONLY criteria for too many radicals.

Funny stuff!

Here are the top 10 "Smartest" states according to World Population Review. You can use an alternative source if you wish, most of them are pretty similar. Next to the State name is the No-Vig % chance Trump has of winning that state according to Bovada(again you can use a different Book, most of them are pretty similar).

Top 10 Smartest U.S. States and Trump's chances of winning that State:

1. Massachusetts 8.94%
2. Connecticut 9.87%
3. Maryland 7.83%
4. Virginia 32.94%
5. Vermont 8.94%
6. New Hampshire 43.67%
7. New Jersey 17.35%
8. Colorado 15.63%
9. Minnesota 34.7%
10. Washington 8.52%

Notice a trend yet? Perhaps you don't, so here are the 10 Dumbest States and Trump's chances of winning these States.

1. West Virginia 93.69%
2. Mississippi 93.69%
3. Louisiana 92.17%
4. Arkansas 93.69%
5. Nevada 75.99%
6. New Mexico 29.41%(sorry Trump)
7. Oklahoma 92.17%
8. Alabama 94.98%
9. Texas 88.98%
10. South Carolina 93.69%

There you have it folks. Coincidence? I think not. If you don't trust my numbers, feel free to do your own research. If it wasn't for The Dunning Kruger Effect, Trump wouldn't have a chance in hell. People often vote for someone that they can identify with. The numbers above don't lie, and they SHOULD tell you exactly what is going on here.

[Itsamazing777]

Funny stuff!

Here are the top 10 "Smartest" states according to World Population Review. You can use an alternative source if you wish, most of them are pretty similar. Next to the State name is the No-Vig % chance Trump has of winning that state according to Bovada(again you can use a different Book, most of them are pretty similar).

Top 10 Smartest U.S. States and Trump's chances of winning that State:

1. Massachusetts 8.94%
2. Connecticut 9.87%
3. Maryland 7.83%
4. Virginia 32.94%
5. Vermont 8.94%
6. New Hampshire 43.67%
7. New Jersey 17.35%
8. Colorado 15.63%
9. Minnesota 34.7%
10. Washington 8.52%

Notice a trend yet? Perhaps you don't, so here are the 10 Dumbest States and Trump's chances of winning these States.

1. West Virginia 93.69%
2. Mississippi 93.69%
3. Louisiana 92.17%
4. Arkansas 93.69%
5. Nevada 75.99%
6. New Mexico 29.41%(sorry Trump)
7. Oklahoma 92.17%
8. Alabama 94.98%
9. Texas 88.98%
10. South Carolina 93.69%

There you have it folks. Coincidence? I think not. If you don't trust my numbers, feel free to do your own research. If it wasn't for The Dunning Kruger Effect, Trump wouldn't have a chance in hell. People often vote for someone that they can identify with. The numbers above don't lie, and they SHOULD tell you exactly what is going on here.

So the states that have an Ivy league college in them.... hmmm. I would hope that you knew that.
Colleges vs the population of the state is a different story.

I'm sure that that was accounted for in this survey... not.

[DwightShrute]

Funny stuff!

Here are the top 10 "Smartest" states according to World Population Review. You can use an alternative source if you wish, most of them are pretty similar. Next to the State name is the No-Vig % chance Trump has of winning that state according to Bovada(again you can use a different Book, most of them are pretty similar).

Top 10 Smartest U.S. States and Trump's chances of winning that State:

1. Massachusetts 8.94%
2. Connecticut 9.87%
3. Maryland 7.83%
4. Virginia 32.94%
5. Vermont 8.94%
6. New Hampshire 43.67%
7. New Jersey 17.35%
8. Colorado 15.63%
9. Minnesota 34.7%
10. Washington 8.52%

Notice a trend yet? Perhaps you don't, so here are the 10 Dumbest States and Trump's chances of winning these States.

1. West Virginia 93.69%
2. Mississippi 93.69%
3. Louisiana 92.17%
4. Arkansas 93.69%
5. Nevada 75.99%
6. New Mexico 29.41%(sorry Trump)
7. Oklahoma 92.17%
8. Alabama 94.98%
9. Texas 88.98%
10. South Carolina 93.69%

There you have it folks. Coincidence? I think not. If you don't trust my numbers, feel free to do your own research. If it wasn't for The Dunning Kruger Effect, Trump wouldn't have a chance in hell. People often vote for someone that they can identify with. The numbers above don't lie, and they SHOULD tell you exactly what is going on here.

Now that is even funnier actually.

You can make statistics look like you want in many cases. This being one.

Take Megyn Kelly for example. Highly intelligent, well versed, great communicator, and a knockout. This isn't even debatable. She called her a nimrod.

Now compare her with Kamala. She is good looking yes ok, but that is about all the comparison you can do. She's not even a decent communicator and she isn't all that smart either. I would trust her to get my food order correct at a restaurant. You cannot tell me you would vote for this cackling fool for president. How low your standards have fallen if you do. You can do so much better with a candidate for your party than this fool.

Last point. Kamala knew Biden was a walking zombie for years now, and she lie and lied to you. She put her own political aspirations ahead of the country. She's done that her entire life. She was put in charge of the border and never bothered to even once visit this entire time. What has she done to impress you or anyone else since being VP? Name one thing? She is an embarrassment.

Say what you want about Trump, but he would never allow a zombie like Biden to be in any position of power in his administration. Like him or not, Trump would fire his ass and replace him. Trump fired a lot of people and lot of you criticized him for it. LOL. Let me guess, you reside in one of the top 10 smartest States? Trump understand that he and other politicians are civil servants.

Kamala just sat there and watched this poor man shuffle his feet not knowing if he can even find the exit and she said nothing. How many times has she cleaned up his shit? She let is go on for years. Same with his wife and same with a lot of those "Smart People" in those smartest States you quoted. Kamala didn't even have the integrity to demand the SS director be fired. No integrity whatsoever. Just another greedy scummy politician. Book smart maybe but intellectually honest not so much.

[JohnGalt2341]

So the states that have an Ivy league college in them.... hmmm. I would hope that you knew that.
Colleges vs the population of the state is a different story.

I'm sure that that was accounted for in this survey... not.

It IS the population of the State. Show me your top 10 vs your bottom 10 and I will show you Trump's chances of winning those states.

Did you bet on Trump for popular vote at +175 at BetOnline?

[OldBill]

you fawking morons really you think trump wins -----------------well when jan 6th trial comes up pence n others get in box and tell that trump planned it months before and nmfw can a convicted criminal be elected potus he is a fawwking idiot supreme

[Itsamazing777]

It IS the population of the State. Show me your top 10 vs your bottom 10 and I will show you Trump's chances of winning those states.

Did you bet on Trump for popular vote at +175 at BetOnline?

I'm waiting for a better number, as the media keeps pumping harris up. I should be able to get +250 in a month or so

[DwightShrute]

you fawking morons really you think trump wins -----------------well when jan 6th trial comes up pence n others get in box and tell that trump planned it months before and nmfw can a convicted criminal be elected potus he is a fawwking idiot supreme

you are delusional.

Ask your doctor for ...


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is hysterical �� Enjoy my friends ❤️ <a href="https://t.co/VBeM4sRCoy">pic.twitter.com/VBeM4sRCoy</a></p>&mdash; Michelle Maxwell (@MichelleMaxwell) <a href="https://twitter.com/MichelleMaxwell/status/1816191061468819911?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >July 24, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[JohnGalt2341]

I'm waiting for a better number, as the media keeps pumping harris up. I should be able to get +250 in a month or so

You might actually be right about this. But for me, when I think I have a better than 50% chance of winning something, I have a very tough time passing up on a price like +175. But you may very well be right... we shall see.

[blankoblanco]

I am willing to bet if you were strapped to a lie detector, you would fail if the question was "do you thing Trump is a moron" and you answered YES. I believe you don't like the guy. I don't believe you think he's a moron.

We would have to really quantify and qualify the definition of "moron" at that point. But I'm pretty sure I'd pass. I would have a difficult time thinking of a powerful person in the world more stupid than Donald Trump. If he doesn't qualify as a moron, then the definition of the word is too strict.

[DA_MOSS]

We would have to really quantify and qualify the definition of "moron" at that point. But I'm pretty sure I'd pass. I would have a difficult time thinking of a powerful person in the world more stupid than Donald Trump. If he doesn't qualify as a moron, then the definition of the word is too strict.

Our current president has a lower IQ than you.. that’s pretty low

[DA_MOSS]

Funny stuff!

Here are the top 10 "Smartest" states according to World Population Review. You can use an alternative source if you wish, most of them are pretty similar. Next to the State name is the No-Vig % chance Trump has of winning that state according to Bovada(again you can use a different Book, most of them are pretty similar).

Top 10 Smartest U.S. States and Trump's chances of winning that State:

1. Massachusetts 8.94%
2. Connecticut 9.87%
3. Maryland 7.83%
4. Virginia 32.94%
5. Vermont 8.94%
6. New Hampshire 43.67%
7. New Jersey 17.35%
8. Colorado 15.63%
9. Minnesota 34.7%
10. Washington 8.52%

Notice a trend yet? Perhaps you don't, so here are the 10 Dumbest States and Trump's chances of winning these States.

1. West Virginia 93.69%
2. Mississippi 93.69%
3. Louisiana 92.17%
4. Arkansas 93.69%
5. Nevada 75.99%
6. New Mexico 29.41%(sorry Trump)
7. Oklahoma 92.17%
8. Alabama 94.98%
9. Texas 88.98%
10. South Carolina 93.69%

There you have it folks. Coincidence? I think not. If you don't trust my numbers, feel free to do your own research. If it wasn't for The Dunning Kruger Effect, Trump wouldn't have a chance in hell. People often vote for someone that they can identify with. The numbers above don't lie, and they SHOULD tell you exactly what is going on here.

You try WAYYYY too hard to be relevant in these threads. Make sure you stay around when he wins going away in November

[stevenash]

you fawking morons really you think trump wins -----------------well when jan 6th trial comes up pence n others get in box and tell that trump planned it months before and nmfw can a convicted criminal be elected potus he is a fawwking idiot supreme

Bill, the Trump going to jail window is closed.
If he was guilty as charged, he'd be sitting in a cell right now, and the deck was stacked against Trump to boot.

I don't trust either side, Harris is a weak candidate and Trump will say something really stupid that'll cost him in the long run.
I'd rather vote for a box of rocks given the choice of Trump, Harris, or the rocks.

Personally, I think the only person that can beat Trump is Trump himself, and chances are he'll blow it.

Can I get some new blood in here please, someone whose last name isn't an Obama, or Bush, or Kennedy, or Clinton.
Is it too much to ask for a Truman type democrat, or an Eisenhower republican.

I'm a registered (R) I'm really an independent, been voting for what I think is the best candidate rather then up and down the party line for a long time now, and right now the box of rocks is looking a lot better than these other two right now.

[JohnGalt2341]

You try WAYYYY too hard to be relevant in these threads. Make sure you stay around when he wins going away in November

With what? FACTS? Good financial advice?

Name ONE thing I have said in this thread that I have been wrong about, just ONE. First and foremost... I'm trying to make you fools some money here... but you disregard it... because you identify with the people in post #334(Dunning Kruger Effect on steroids). I can't say I'm surprised, it's the very reason why you admire Trump to begin with.

Btw... I never said Trump won't win this election. Check my posts(show me where I said this), I'm mostly giving financial advice. Am I not beating the Closing Line on EVERYTHING? Have ANY of my predictions been wrong?

You Trump clowns amuse me, you really do. It's all about emotion for you fools. Trump loves that about you.

[JIBBBY]

That pretty much sums it up with this disaster of a VP. Did she even come to work in the past 4 years?.. Lol..

[Itsamazing777]

Bill, the Trump going to jail window is closed.
If he was guilty as charged, he'd be sitting in a cell right now, and the deck was stacked against Trump to boot.

I don't trust either side, Harris is a weak candidate and Trump will say something really stupid that'll cost him in the long run.
I'd rather vote for a box of rocks given the choice of Trump, Harris, or the rocks.

Personally, I think the only person that can beat Trump is Trump himself, and chances are he'll blow it.

Can I get some new blood in here please, someone whose last name isn't an Obama, or Bush, or Kennedy, or Clinton.
Is it too much to ask for a Truman type democrat, or an Eisenhower republican.

I'm a registered (R) I'm really an independent, been voting for what I think is the best candidate rather then up and down the party line for a long time now, and right now the box of rocks is looking a lot better than these other two right now.

Straddling the fence, always winds up with a sore asshole...
I am an independent as well, and I vote for who's policies are best for the safety and financial interest of America. Between the 2 choices one is worse than the other. 3rd party is a waste of a vote.

[stevenash]

Straddling the fence, always winds up with a sore asshole...
I am an independent as well, and I vote for who's policies are best for the safety and financial interest of America. Between the 2 choices one is worse than the other. 3rd party is a waste of a vote.

Like a nudist crossing a barbed wire fence.

[jackpot269]

Harris was polling lower then Biden for the longest time though.. She failed at her only job as VP on the border also. Her staff hated her. This will all come out in Trump ads to bash Kamala. If they debate she will get called out on all that.

Did she have more turn over than Trump in his 4 years? To be clear I have know idea, just that Trump had a lot of turn over and most of them said not to vote for him.