Indianapolis Colts +8

[asiagambler]

Another problem of yours. You take PFF as gospel. Mustipher is a bum. You're wrong if you think anything else.

As opposed to you who takes ebony bird as gospel ???

PFF is literally scouts watching game film and assigning a grade to a player. I don't take it as gospel but it's a valuable piece of information. That you dismiss it completely says a lot about you

[asiagambler]

Part of your gambling problem is thinking -3 is a good bet when it opened lower. My Cleveland bet was already placed.

I didn't say anything about it being a good bet. I said it's a good bet for you

[raiders72001]

As opposed to you who takes ebony bird as gospel ???

PFF is literally scouts watching game film and assigning a grade to a player. I don't take it as gospel but it's a valuable piece of information. That you dismiss it completely says a lot about you

Everyone looks at PFF. I pay for that too. You probably listen to a little Sirius too since you mentioned JAG. You just aren't able to adapt. I'm wrong a lot and just say that I missed that one. You make an awful call and try to cover it up.

[raiders72001]

I didn't say anything about it being a good bet. I said it's a good bet for you

It's not a good bet for anyone. Mine was already placed.

[asiagambler]

Everyone looks at PFF. I pay for that too. You probably listen to a little Sirius too since you mentioned JAG. You just aren't able to adapt. I'm wrong a lot and just say that I missed that one. You make an awful call and try to cover it up.

You're just beyond delusional at this point

I didn't say ANYTHING about your bet

I told you exactly who was hurt, how long they've been hurt, who is replacing those players and how they've fared this season. I told you your biggest ally was the weather

Everything I said was correct

You evade 90% of the things I've said in this thread because you're just flat out wrong and clueless about it

The ONLY thing you got right was the bet itself

You're so mad I made you look like a fool that you're just making things up and posting articles from ebony bird as some kind of proof you're right

But at least you got the most important thing right I guess. Maybe that's small consolation to you

[raiders72001]

You're just beyond delusional at this point

I didn't say ANYTHING about your bet

I told you exactly who was hurt, how long they've been hurt, who is replacing those players and how they've fared this season. I told you your biggest ally was the weather

Everything I said was correct

You evade 90% of the things I've said in this thread because you're just flat out wrong and clueless about it

The ONLY thing you got right was the bet itself

You're so mad I made you look like a fool that you're just making things up and posting articles from ebony bird as proof you're right

But at least you got the most important thing right I guess. Maybe that's small consolation to you

You only made yourself look like a fool. Even your edits can't cover it up. You refuse to admit that the backups blew the game when the rest of the world knows what happened.

[asiagambler]

You only made yourself look like a fool. Even your edits can't cover it up. You refuse to admit that the backups blew the game when the rest of the world knows what happened.

Yes rest of the world like ebony bird LOL

[asiagambler]

Everyone looks at PFF. I pay for that too. You probably listen to a little Sirius too since you mentioned JAG. You just aren't able to adapt. I'm wrong a lot and just say that I missed that one. You make an awful call and try to cover it up.

Hold on a minute. Where did I say JAG ?

[asiagambler]

Too funny. I knew you saw it too. Thanks for confirming. That really must have gotten to you too. Mission accomplished

[raiders72001]

Hold on a minute. Where did I say JAG ?

I thought you said Just A Guy (JAG). Maybe someone else said it in a different thread or you didn't get it from Moving the Chains on Sirius. They repeat JAG a lot. Forget who said it here.

[asiagambler]

I thought you said Just A Guy (JAG). Maybe someone else said it in a different thread or you didn't get it from Moving the Chains on Sirius. They repeat JAG a lot. Forget who said it here.

��������

[raiders72001]

Too funny. I knew you saw it too. Thanks for confirming. That really must have gotten to you too. Mission accomplished

Why would it get to me? You don't process things correctly. It's also why I don't reply to 90% of what you say. It's just plain wrong. It's also why you can't see that the backups lost the game.

I should have stopped replying when you said that a practice squad player is better than a starter. At least you deleted that one with a few other gems.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Raiders is a great poster. One of the best at SBR.

He helped put me on an ATS winner on the Colts last week. It was a great play. Colts were right there the whole way.

+8 Dog that played like they were equal to the Fav. And it's a play I wouldn't have been on otherwise.

[stevenash]

I personally think Raiders and Asia are assets to our community, they both bring plenty to the table, and I genuinely like both fellas.

i'm not going to step in and intervene, but why don't we just agree to disagree, and shake hands.

Thanks in advance.

Watch the video all, pay attention to the video, the video knows all.

[Da Manster!]

I personally think Raiders and Asia are assets to our community, they both bring plenty to the table, and I genuinely like both fellas.

i'm not going to step in and intervene, but why don't we just agree to disagree, and shake hands.

Thanks in advance.

Watch the video all, pay attention to the video, the video knows all.

not going to lie, Nash! I'm thoroughly enjoying it! A wee bit feisty but nothing really egregious. Civil and constructive arguments on both sides!...Anyhow, I've got my popcorn ready!

[raiders72001]

My point as posted many times is that injury value is exponential. Ignore most single injuries but increase value of each as they pile up. Imagine playing with 20 backups and ignoring it. History shows that healthy teams win and go the furthest. In the Balt game, injuries were the reason for the loss. The refs wouldn't have even come in to play with a healthy Balt team.

[raiders72001]

Of course it's also matchups and the player. Insane to ignore an injury to Tyreek Hill. The same with saying that injury squad players are better than starters.

[raiders72001]

Here's the practice squad guy that AG said was better than a starter. He was a non-factor all day other than blowing the game by not jumping on a fumble. LT didn't break a sweat blocking him. The hardest the LT worked was moving Moon off the line on running plays. 36 second mark one of them. On pass plays Moon didn't sniff the QB.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXH4sELMRzo&t=177s

[stevenash]

not going to lie, Nash! I'm thoroughly enjoying it! A wee bit feisty but nothing really egregious. Civil and constructive arguments on both sides!...Anyhow, I've got my popcorn ready!

I too don't mind a little fiery exchanges, God knows I've been in my fair share of them myself, and once again Manny you being the voice of reason and all nailed it, this spat is nowhere near the tipping point and yes it isn't egregious which is why I stood back, kept quiet, and let the two fine gents work it out themselves.

I really don't like to be heavy handed, unfortunately sometimes we are forced to.
For instance, if one constantly posts disruptive garbage in a drunken stupor, and ignore all warnings to please simmer down, then what are we to do?

I can name several other instances where we had no choice to be heavy handed, but there's no reason to rehash those incidents.

Yeah, you're correct, you knew, I knew, we all knew this was a nothing little spat.

Appreciate your input Manny, all good.

[raiders72001]

2:25 mark Moon didn't jump on the ball. I also ignore a lot of AG's statements. AG saying that I thought an edge rusher such as Moon was going to play on all snaps. It was obvious that wasn't my thought but I didn't want to spend time refuting everything. Seems he's a Balt homer and doesn't let the facts get in the way.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

My point as posted many times is that injury value is exponential. Ignore most single injuries but increase value of each as they pile up. Imagine playing with 20 backups and ignoring it. History shows that healthy teams win and go the furthest. In the Balt game, injuries were the reason for the loss. The refs wouldn't have even come in to play with a healthy Balt team.

Raiders is correct here. Cluster Injuries have been talked about for a long time in the Handicapping community.

Quantifying this is not easily done. Ind +8 was a great play. Will be interested to hear if Raiders is involved ATS in the Balt/Clev game.

[raiders72001]

Raiders is correct here. Cluster Injuries have been talked about for a long time in the Handicapping community.

Quantifying this is not easily done. Ind +8 was a great play. Will be interested to hear if Raiders is involved ATS in the Balt/Clev game.

I took Cle early but not as fond of it as I was then. Cle has a monster DL but it looks like Stanley and Linderbaum are returning for Balt.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, thx, Raiders. Have a great week.

[raiders72001]

OK, thx, Raiders. Have a great week.

You too.

[raiders72001]

Chucky - you're right about cluster injuries in football. AG wanted to use baseball stats since it's pitcher vs. batter and is easily quantifiable no matter how many injuries occur. It doesn't work that way for football.

Found this article that explains it better than I am.

Cluster InjuriesThere are times when it is prudent to bet on injuries. When there are multiple injuries to a specific position, (the secondary, offensive line, etc.) the value between the starter and the fourth or fifth replacement across multiple positions, may provide value over a point or two. In these unique situations, the market does not recognize how impactful these injuries are to the game and the point spread, which provides actionable value.














Bulk Injuries







Much like cluster injuries, bulk injuries are not accounted for in the point spread line. Bulk injuries are significant injuries across multiple positions on the same side of the ball. Individually, these players may not move the line at all, but collectively, they may provide a betting opportunity. When bulk injuries occur, several below replacement players may be forced into action, but even more than that, coaches have to spend more time and attention to these less talented players. Game plans and coverages may have to adjust to protect weaknesses. When there is one glaring problem, a coach can usually adjust the schemes to hide the inefficiencies. When there are multiple areas of concern, the task becomes much more daunting. When bulk injuries occur, the market place usually does not account for it. The knowledgeable sports bettor may have an opportunity to take advantage .

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky - you're right about cluster injuries in football. AG wanted to use baseball stats since it's pitcher vs. batter and is easily quantifiable no matter how many injuries occur. It doesn't work that way for football.

Yeah, you're delving into a very interesting area. Props on your research.

I have a few opinions. I think you're doing great work.

[asiagambler]

2:25 mark Moon didn't jump on the ball. I also ignore a lot of AG's statements. AG saying that I thought an edge rusher such as Moon was going to play on all snaps. It was obvious that wasn't my thought but I didn't want to spend time refuting everything. Seems he's a Balt homer and doesn't let the facts get in the way.

What are you talking about. That's EXACTLY what you said dummy. You said he's coming up from the practice squad to start. You said Moon has never started and how is he going to replace Oweh. You're still going on and on about this for days now lmao

[asiagambler]

Here's the practice squad guy that AG said was better than a starter. He was a non-factor all day other than blowing the game by not jumping on a fumble. LT didn't break a sweat blocking him. The hardest the LT worked was moving Moon off the line on running plays. 36 second mark one of them. On pass plays Moon didn't sniff the QB.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXH4sELMRzo&t=177s

I'm really beginning to wonder about you

Moon was a non factor in a game he was never supposed to get many snaps in. Said this 100 times in this thread

You know who else is a non factor ?

Oweh. The guy Moon wasn't even supposed to replace

Said that 100 times in this thread too

Maybe by the 101st time you'll get it

[asiagambler]

My point as posted many times is that injury value is exponential. Ignore most single injuries but increase value of each as they pile up. Imagine playing with 20 backups and ignoring it. History shows that healthy teams win and go the furthest. In the Balt game, injuries were the reason for the loss. The refs wouldn't have even come in to play with a healthy Balt team.

Are you braindead? Really?

I never said anything about injuries not mattering

Why do you keep saying 20 backups?

I know why. For effect because you know you got trashed in this thread over and over again and you're desperately trying to make your argument sound better

Injuries had very little to do with the loss. Lamar played terribly in the rain just as I said and turned the ball over too many times. Backups played as well as the players they were replacing. Said this many times and backed it up. All you do is post lazily written articles by no-name sites that back up your lazy reasoning

You're no different from johnnyvegas actually. No wonder chucky likes you lmao

[asiagambler]

I took Cle early but not as fond of it as I was then. Cle has a monster DL but it looks like Stanley and Linderbaum are returning for Balt.

Ingenious. Betting an injury game before seeing the Wednesday practice report

[raiders72001]

Ingenious. Betting an injury game before seeing the Wednesday practice report

Most people are like you and wait for the injury report. You want to get your info from Twitter, X, to beat the public. My bet was made assuming that they were playing. I would have liked it better if they weren't. The most important thing is to get the best line. Most are like you and just take closers in an efficient market.

[raiders72001]

Are you braindead? Really?

I never said anything about injuries not mattering

Why do you keep saying 20 backups?

I know why. For effect because you know you got trashed in this thread over and over again and you're desperately trying to make your argument sound better

Injuries had very little to do with the loss. Lamar played terribly in the rain just as I said and turned the ball over too many times. Backups played as well as the players they were replacing. Said this many times and backed it up. All you do is post lazily written articles by no-name sites that back up your lazy reasoning

You're no different from johnnyvegas actually. No wonder chucky likes you lmao

You and the truth don't go hand in hand. You said the 7 injuries didn't matter because the backups were as good. Then I just let your nonsense go.

1. The Bears didn't want Mustifer. He then got cut by the Colts and picked up by Bal on waivers. He's lucky to still be in the NFL.
2. Drake was signed to the practice squad.
3. Moon was on the practice squad.

Those three is why they lost. The bad snap wasn't caused by the weather, it was a miscommunication. Drake lost a fumble and Moon whiffed picking up a fumble.

The practice squad backups that you claimed to be as good as the starters, one better than the starter, cost the game.

[asiagambler]

Most people are like you and wait for the injury report. You want to get your info from Twitter, X, to beat the public. My bet was made assuming that they were playing. I would have liked it better if they weren't. The most important thing is to get the best line. Most are like you and just take closers in an efficient market.

You're incredibly dense. When I say "Wednesday practice report," I mean "Wednesday practice information however that's disseminated in the quickest way possible"

But you look at injury information from months ago before the season even started so are you really the one to talk about that ? LOL

[asiagambler]

You and the truth don't go hand in hand. You said the 7 injuries didn't matter because the backups were as good. Then I just let your nonsense go.

1. The Bears didn't want Mustifer. He then got cut by the Colts and picked up by Bal on waivers. He's lucky to still be in the NFL.
2. Drake was signed to the practice squad.
3. Moon was on the practice squad.

Those three is why they lost. The bad snap wasn't caused by the weather, it was a miscommunication. Drake lost a fumble and Moon whiffed picking up a fumble.

You talk about everything except their actual play on the field. You're a comedy at this point

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Most people are like you and wait for the injury report. You want to get your info from Twitter, X, to beat the public. My bet was made assuming that they were playing. I would have liked it better if they weren't. The most important thing is to get the best line. Most are like you and just take closers in an efficient market.

Raider, your notes are fascinating. Like any market, there's a difference between:

*(Adjustment on the Market Line) vs (Adjustment in Fair Value).

I told you my basic thoughts:
1) So many Fantasy FB players view the RB/WR as a big loss. Sometimes, those players are not a big loss.
2) I am biased to the value of Offensive Linemen. I used to have success playing against depleted Off Lines. I think it's harder now. It's a hyper-competitive league, so some dropoffs are small.
3) Of course, there's value on the starting QB going out. If you listen to ANY post-game from a coach, they'll say the Backup didn't get many reps. If he's now starting, he improves timing via more reps in practice.