Clemson v. Alabama - Pick

[DJK]

I see Pinnacle is now down to -5 and that's not necessarily a good thing.

If it goes down any further, then I'm in trouble as any move more than 1.0 is a very bad thing in my opinion and the opposite is more likely to cover then.

[Cuse0323]

I see Pinnacle is now down to -5 and that's not necessarily a good thing.

If it goes down any further, then I'm in trouble as any move more than 1.0 is a very bad thing in my opinion and the opposite is more likely to cover then.

You’re gonna drive yourself insane going back and forth on the line.

[DJK]

You’re gonna drive yourself insane going back and forth on the line.

Yeah, especially when you have a lot on the game like I am and I do this every year on the final.

The way I see it, the books move their lines either to balance the action when they aren't certain themselves what's going to happen or to draw the public to the wrong side when they are pretty certain what the outcome is.

It's the consensus line move that worries me the most as it's just not possible that every bettor at all books bet the same way for all books for them to move the line exactly the same and about the same time, which is what happened with the move from -6 to -5.5. Obviously they have access to certain information that we don't have since it's big money that's involved for the final and there was no new news about either teams and yet the line moved consensus to -5.5.

Perhaps some respected sharp bettor like Billy Walters bet on Clemson and the news got out so they moved the line down to draw more of Bama's bets. Who the hell knows.

[DJK]

The minimum that Bama has won by this year is 7 against Georgia, so it seems the current spread of -5.5 to -6 is almost a gimme.

But since when is sports betting that easy? Never.

[Mr KLC]

One of the highlights of the college football playoff for many coaches has been the coaches film room.

According to a report this morning, ESPN has decided to scrap the segment and bring in a bunch of other TV personalities for a “MNF Film Room.”

[sweep]

25-29, 8-9 in bowl games, after the horrible bad beat in the Ohio State game.

I think the value is with Alabama at 5.5. Alabama controlled the whole game against Oklahoma but they were inconsistent with a month off and didn't finish several drives, the defense played prevent with the big lead most of the second half.

The last 2 years Clemson has had a great running game with Watson, Gallman, and other running backs. This year Lawrence is not the type of dual threat QB that has give Alabama trouble, like Manziel and Watson. Etinne is not one of Clemson better running backs, he had a good year in the weak ACC, but he's only 200 pounds, and Alabama should be able to control Clemson's running game without putting extra players in the box or moving their safeties up. Alabama has one of their best offensive lines in years and 3 very good running backs, Clemson isn't likely to have Lawrence for the ND game unless his appeal is overturned. The best team Clemson played this year was Notre Dame, an overrated team that mostly played against weaker teams in the big ten and ACC.Alabama should be able to run, and that should open up the field for Tua to attack a Clemson pass defense that has been inconsistent.

You wouldnt know value if u had a coupon you broke dikk!!!

[navyblue81]

The minimum that Bama has won by this year is 7 against Georgia, so it seems the current spread of -5.5 to -6 is almost a gimme.

But since when is sports betting that easy? Never.

Take away the first quarter and they were outscored 30-13.

First quarter is the determinant in this game. Clemson has a tendency to start out very slow. Their last few games against ND, Duke, Pitt and SC, they were all close approaching the half before they hit the gas. Bama, on the other hand, comes out rolling. They typically bury teams in the first 5-10 minutes. Georgia is really the only team to keep them in check early and to no surprise, that was Bama's only close game.

[Cuse0323]

Take away the first quarter and they were outscored 30-13.

First quarter is the determinant in this game. Clemson has a tendency to start out very slow. Their last few games against ND, Duke, Pitt and SC, they were all close approaching the half before they hit the gas. Bama, on the other hand, comes out rolling. They typically bury teams in the first 5-10 minutes. Georgia is really the only team to keep them in check early and to no surprise, that was Bama's only close game.

Who was outscored 30-13?

[navyblue81]

Who was outscored 30-13?

My bad. Was thinking final was 41-30 in my head. Was 45-34. Bama was outscored by OU 34-17 from second quarter on.

[thomorino]

You wouldnt know value if u had a coupon you broke dikk!!!

Fuk off

[thomorino]

Not that I care but

Fukk off

Good ol thermaflu!!

I dunno.. BG came up with it, thought it was funny and he doesn’t seem to like so it stuck!! lol

Fuk off

[firedawg]

Gl morini

[Bostongambler]

Thermuflu, only thing to know is when you get the ball go that away. Go that away.

[Cuse0323]

My bad. Was thinking final was 41-30 in my head. Was 45-34. Bama was outscored by OU 34-17 from second quarter on.

Gotcha. Figured that was it.

You like Bama to get ahead early and hold on?

[navyblue81]

Gotcha. Figured that was it.

You like Bama to get ahead early and hold on?

The more I analyze the game, the more I like Bama. I just have some questions about the Clemson secondary. It's hard to find a hole in either team, but that may be the biggest weakness on the field come Monday. They looked good vs. ND, but you have to remember the Irish OL was overwhelmed and Book can't throw a deep pass. Bama has a strong OL and can definitely throw deep. Question is whether Venables can blitz the heck out of Tua and get to him. If he does, he can shake him up. That's what Georgia was able to do successfully.

[thomorino]

Gl morini

Thermuflu, only thing to know is when you get the ball go that away. Go that away.

Fuk off

[thomorino]

The idea that the line should be sharp because this is the national championship game isn't a good argument. The regular season is 12 games, Lawrence only started fewer than 8 - this game will come down to whether or not Lawarence can consistently move the ball on Alabama's secondary without a consistent running game. Alabama should be able to drop 6-7 into coverage all game. Notre Dame got no pressure on Lawrence, that's why they lost.

[thomorino]

The idea lines in big games late in the year are usually sharp is wrong - look at the line in the SEC championship game, the line in the Clemson-Notre Dame game.

[2daBank]

The idea that the line should be sharp because this is the national championship game isn't a good argument. The regular season is 12 games, Lawrence only started fewer than 8 - this game will come down to whether or not Lawarence can consistently move the ball on Alabama's secondary without a consistent running game. Alabama should be able to drop 6-7 into coverage all game. Notre Dame got no pressure on Lawrence, that's why they lost.

You don’t think it be in books best interest to make a really good like on such a game?

Doesn’t mean it will end up that way but to suggest it not a sharp line seems pretty crazy to me.

[thomorino]

Not that I care, the books goal in games with a big handles is to split the action. In a game like the super bowl or the national championship game recreational action will far outweigh sharp action so the line will be much more a reflection of public perception. The public just saw Clemson destroy Notre Dame, and Alabama didn't cover their last 2 games.

[Cuse0323]

The idea that the line should be sharp because this is the national championship game isn't a good argument. The regular season is 12 games, Lawrence only started fewer than 8 - this game will come down to whether or not Lawarence can consistently move the ball on Alabama's secondary without a consistent running game. Alabama should be able to drop 6-7 into coverage all game. Notre Dame got no pressure on Lawrence, that's why they lost.

Would love to see them drop 6-7 consistently, but unlike you, Saban knows that Clemson has a great run game. Their backs are all around 8 YPC. Clemson is better than Georgia. They will put up points on Bama.

[Cuse0323]

The idea lines in big games late in the year are usually sharp is wrong - look at the line in the SEC championship game, the line in the Clemson-Notre Dame game.

Gotta love it. What would you suggest the line to have been in the ND game? The more you talk, the more I’d be worried if I had Bama.

[Cuse0323]

Such a shitty secondary, and no run game. Not as good as the last two years. It’s a miracle that Clemson is undefeated. Oh, and Lawrence isn’t all that much better than dual threat stud Kelly Bryant.

[thomorino]

Would love to see them drop 6-7 consistently, but unlike you, Saban knows that Clemson has a great run game. Their backs are all around 8 YPC. Clemson is better than Georgia. They will put up points on Bama.

Gotta love it. What would you suggest the line to have been in the ND game? The more you talk, the more I’d be worried if I had Bama.

Such a shitty secondary, and no run game. Not as good as the last two years. It’s a miracle that Clemson is undefeated. Oh, and Lawrence isn’t all that much better than dual threat stud Kelly Bryant.

Aren't you still arguing we should ignore the A&M because Clemson shut down Dungey, an overrated run first quarterback at Syracuse. Clemsons running game is significantly worse than previous years, if Alabama played in the ACC they'd average 12 yards a carry, Clemson's schedule was a joke. ND was overrated and Clemson's ACC schedule was a joke, they played 2 good teams out of conference, Notre Dame, and A&M, A&M threw for nearly 500 yards on their secondary.

[thomorino]

And Etienne is barely 200 pounds, he's not going to break tackles against Alabama.

[Cuse0323]

Aren't you still arguing we should ignore the A&M because Clemson shut down Dungey, an overrated run first quarterback at Syracuse. Clemsons running game is significantly worse than previous years, if Alabama played in the ACC they'd average 12 yards a carry, Clemson's schedule was a joke. ND was overrated and Clemson's ACC schedule was a joke, they played 2 good teams out of conference, Notre Dame, and A&M, A&M threw for nearly 500 yards on their secondary.

Not at all what I’m arguing. But, I’m not weighing my decision so much on a game that happened four months ago. You just refuse to give Clemson any credit. Who cares if Etienne is only 200 pounds. He doesn’t have to be Herschel Walker to be good. And they have three other backs that produce. Feaster and Choice are bigger backs. I’m sure they’re all bums in your mind. The mind that thinks Kelly Bryant is close to Lawrence’s league. And Dungey is an overrated run first QB. So dumb.



Everything that could be a positive is just overrated to you. Or not as good as the last two years. Great way to pick games. You must up a ton in your lifetime gambling.

[DJK]

Aren't you still arguing we should ignore the A&M because Clemson shut down Dungey, an overrated run first quarterback at Syracuse. Clemsons running game is significantly worse than previous years, if Alabama played in the ACC they'd average 12 yards a carry, Clemson's schedule was a joke. ND was overrated and Clemson's ACC schedule was a joke, they played 2 good teams out of conference, Notre Dame, and A&M, A&M threw for nearly 500 yards on their secondary.

For the game between Notre Dame vs Clemson, Chris Bear Fallica picked Clemson -13 and Stanford Steve Coughlin picked Notre Dame +13.

In their podcast, Steve basically questioned Chris saying that doesn't Texas A&M game worry you about Clemson?

Chris' response was "Clemson is infinitely better since that game on both sides but especially on the offensive line."

I should have listened to what Chris said before taking Notre Dame since Steve thought Notre Dame could upset Clemson and boy was he dead wrong on that one.

[DJK]

In the end, if Alabama was that much better than Clemson and that they are good enough to beat them handily, then the line should have opened -7.5 or higher but it didn't. I know some books opened at -9, but it quickly went down to -6.5 or -6.0.

Most booked opened no higher than -6.5.

What does that tell you?

Teams opened at -7.5 covers more often than not.

Teams opened at -6.5 failed to cover more often than not along with it being a teaser killer.

[Da Manster!]

In the end, if Alabama was that much better than Clemson and that they are good enough to beat them handily, then the line should have opened -7.5 or higher but it didn't. I know some books opened at -9, but it quickly went down to -6.5 or -6.0.

Most booked opened no higher than -6.5.

What does that tell you?

Teams opened at -7.5 covers more often than not.

Teams opened at -6.5 failed to cover more often than not along with it being a teaser killer.

well, for what it's worth, a lot of dawgs have been covering this bowl season...right from the top of my head we have Duke (+3.5), Va Tech (+6.5), Iowa (+6.5), Northwestern (+6.5), Kentucky (+5.5), Florida (+4.5), Mich ST (+2.5), Washington (+6.5), Iowa ST (+3), Texas (+11.5), and Virginia (+4.5), etc, etc!!...most of those dawgs won the game outright, let alone covering the spread......well, for what it's worth, I love Clemson (+6)...got the game in yesterday with my local because I had a strange feeling the line was going to drop...truth be told, I would still take the Tigers at 4.5...

[Venom72]

Gotta go with the best bama team in years, especially with a single digit spread

[thomorino]

Not at all what I’m arguing. But, I’m not weighing my decision so much on a game that happened four months ago. You just refuse to give Clemson any credit. Who cares if Etienne is only 200 pounds. He doesn’t have to be Herschel Walker to be good. And they have three other backs that produce. Feaster and Choice are bigger backs. I’m sure they’re all bums in your mind. The mind that thinks Kelly Bryant is close to Lawrence’s league. And Dungey is an overrated run first QB. So dumb.



Everything that could be a positive is just overrated to you. Or not as good as the last two years. Great way to pick games. You must up a ton in your lifetime gambling.

Fuk off

[thomorino]

In the end, if Alabama was that much better than Clemson and that they are good enough to beat them handily, then the line should have opened -7.5 or higher but it didn't. I know some books opened at -9, but it quickly went down to -6.5 or -6.0.

Most booked opened no higher than -6.5.

What does that tell you?

Teams opened at -7.5 covers more often than not.

Teams opened at -6.5 failed to cover more often than not along with it being a teaser killer.

Alabama was a 7-10 point favorite most of the year against Clemson on the look ahead line, the number has only gone below 7 the last month.

[thomorino]

And not that I care but Choise is 210, not much bigger than Etienne, Feaster barely plays

[thomorino]

Let's look at how the ACC did in the bowl season compared to the SEC - this is comical.

NC State - got absolutely destroyed by an A&M team that was an average SEC team - NC State was at the top of the ACC recordwise most of the year.

Virginia Tech - played in a garbage bowl game because the team was bad all year and still lost.

Georgia Tech - Lost

Syracuse - Won because Grier didn't play

Duke - beat a Temple team that isn't even in a power conference

Miami - Lost

Tech - Lost

The ACC was embarrassing in bowl games with the exception of Virgina and Duke, this conference has been overrated all year, Lawrence hasn't played anyone remotely close to Alabama.

Alabama has played Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma - they dominated 2 of the 3, the Georgia game they won with Tua on 1 leg.

[DJK]

Alabama was a 7-10 point favorite most of the year against Clemson on the look ahead line, the number has only gone below 7 the last month.

So then, what made it go below 7?

It's not like Bama has gotten any better over the season as they are scoring at will in just about all games except for the Georgia game.

If anything, Clemson has gotten better.

Like someone said earlier, after Bama went up 28-0 against Oklahoma they were -17 for the rest of the game.

I highly doubt that Bama can run up the score like they have against the other teams when they play Clemson.

Bama has benefited getting the good teams at home except LSU, but LSU has no offense or at least not good enough offense to score against a great defense like Alabama.

Clemson has some really tall receivers who can get the jump balls.

Did you see Venables on the side line when they played Notre Dame? He was a man who was possessed.

The first year defensive coordinator for Alabama on the other hand isn't a secondary guru and therefore Bama can be passed on and Clemson can pass. I'm sure Nick Saban will help with the secondary defense but in the end he isn't in the coach's box to call the defense.

It will be a good game, and I just don't see Bama running away with this one as they could not against Georgia.

Heck, Georgia was manhandled by Texas, so it's all about motivation in college football and I'm 99% certain that Clemson has the motivational edge on this one for how Bama has beat them so badly last year.