Danshan NBA Picks

[KiDBaZkiT]

yeah but they dont have the old school one with the super soft orange foam ball like a nerf, anymore I looked on ebay

i should use it to pick over unders I would probably do better, LOL

You can find an equivalent at a toy store trust me.

[danshan11]

thanks I will look!

[danshan11]

12-21
Lakers Under 234.5

[danshan11]

12-22 Suns Under 231.5, Wizards -5, Spurs Over 215.5,

[danshan11]

12-26
Wizards Over 220.5
Pacers -7
Cavaliers +10.5
Nuggets +4

[Hman]

GL with the plays dan

[danshan11]

it will be ok it all evens out, my clv numbers have improved totals have stabilized a bit

[danshan11]

12-27
Trailblazers Under 227
76ers +5.5

[Hman]

gL tonight dan

[danshan11]

12-28
Spurs +4
Cavaliers Over 201

[danshan11]

12-28 Nets Over 220

[danshan11]

12-29
Hornets -1.5
Wizards Over 221
Grizzlies Over 201

[danshan11]

Current Record

	W	L	P	Win %	CLV	CLV +	CLV -
12/29/2018	51	64	2	44.35%	1.01%	40	26
Sides	25	21	0	54.35%	0.96%	18	9
Totals	26	43	2	37.68%	1.05%	22	17

[Hman]

GL Dan

[danshan11]

12-29 Pelicans Under 227.5

[danshan11]

12/30
Pistons +2
Mavericks Under 226

[danshan11]

12-31
Magic +7.5

[Hman]

GL dan

[danshan11]

12/31
Rockets -4
Suns Under 230.5

[danshan11]

1-2
Pistons +6

[danshan11]

1-2 Cavaliers Over 201.5

[danshan11]

1-2 Magic +2

[danshan11]

1-2
Lakers Under 230

[Hman]

GL dan

[danshan11]

	W	L	P	Win %	CLV	CLV +	CLV -
1/3/2019	60	67	3	47.24%	1.01%	40	26
Sides	28	23	1	54.90%	0.96%	18	9
Totals	32	44	2	42.11%	1.05%	22	17

[TechnicalTrader]

	W	L	P	Win %	CLV	CLV +	CLV -
1/3/2019	60	67	3	47.24%	1.01%	40	26
Sides	28	23	1	54.90%	0.96%	18	9
Totals	32	44	2	42.11%	1.05%	22	17

Can't wait to see where you'll be at after 2000 bets. Don't worry Dan, your first 120 bets were only noise. You'll be fine.

[danshan11]

Can't wait to see where you'll be at after 2000 bets. Don't worry Dan, your first 120 bets were only noise. You'll be fine.

you think 130 bets is indicative of anything? if that is the case then my 52 sides bets says I am one of the greatest sides bettors ever! I am not sure you are really into this betting thing the right way!

[TechnicalTrader]

you think 130 bets is indicative of anything? if that is the case then my 52 sides bets says I am one of the greatest sides bettors ever! I am not sure you are really into this betting thing the right way!

Nope, just saying I can't wait to see where you are at 2000. Your first 120 indicate nothing, just noise.

[danshan11]

120 is not noise but it surely is not indicative of any long term skill that is for sure. if you want to analyze skill on such a small size of 130 records best thing is to look at line value

[TechnicalTrader]

120 is not noise but it surely is not indicative of any long term skill that is for sure. if you want to analyze skill on such a small size of 130 records best thing is to look at line value

So 120 bets, split up in two types of plays is not noise? Didn't you quote somewhere that you'd need thousands of bets in order to prove any sort of stability? 120 bets over a span of 4000 bets is only 3% and you don't consider that noise?

So if you beat the line 70% of the time over 120 bets, that would also not be considered luck or noise? Isn't that the same as winning 70% of your bets?

The more you post, the more you contradict yourself Dan.

[danshan11]

Ok we are having a word game
130 bets is not shit you do need thousands to guess you have skill, correct
line value is not about beating the line 70% of the time its about having +EV line value on the average. if I beat the line 70% of the time by less than the margin I probably will not have success long term. Now if I can beat the line by average above the margin over a sustained number of games it is more likely that I will have long term success.
One of the major issues with sports betting is the variables

[danshan11]

1-4
Bucks -13

[Hman]

GL dan

[danshan11]

1-3
Raptors +3.5

[danshan11]

1-4 Mavericks Over 213.5