Danshan NBA Picks

**Hman** · 01-18-19, 05:23 PM

GL tonight dan

**danshan11** · 01-18-19, 05:23 PM

1-18 Timberwolves Under 227

**danshan11** · 01-19-19, 11:13 AM

1-19
Suns +7.5

**danshan11** · 01-19-19, 11:23 AM

1-19
Lakers Under 227.5

**Hman** · 01-19-19, 04:23 PM

GL dan

**jets96** · 01-19-19, 06:41 PM

going against ya on that heat pick i have chi +4 ....hey you will have good clv ,lets see if it gets you the win lol
good luck brother lets say mia by 3

**danshan11** · 01-19-19, 07:06 PM

line value on sides has been good, totals are nuts in the NBA right now, I cant pick a total to save my life. sides are kicking ass though!

**jets96** · 01-19-19, 07:15 PM

luck

**danshan11** · 01-21-19, 09:05 AM

1-21
Kings +3.5

**Hman** · 01-21-19, 09:06 AM

GL today dan

**danshan11** · 01-23-19, 09:47 AM

1-23
Clippers +5.5

**danshan11** · 01-24-19, 10:20 AM

1-24
Suns Over 220

**danshan11** · 01-24-19, 01:50 PM

1-24
Suns Under 230.5

wrote Suns but its lakers

**danshan11** · 01-24-19, 03:16 PM

1-25
Wizards +4
Knicks +10.5

**Hman** · 01-24-19, 03:41 PM

GL dan

**shadymcgrady** · 01-24-19, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

1-24
Suns Under 230.5

wrote Suns but its lakers

Anything to do with movement? It was at 129 last night

**danshan11** · 01-24-19, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by shadymcgrady

Anything to do with movement? It was at 129 last night

nothing particular I had the game at 227 in my model and it came out at 229 which was not enough but 230.5 is enough space for me to bet it. I also think Teague and Covington might bring it down some more

**shadymcgrady** · 01-24-19, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

nothing particular I had the game at 227 in my model and it came out at 229 which was not enough but 230.5 is enough space for me to bet it. I also think Teague and Covington might bring it down some more

Teague and roco are out for this game, is that what you meant? Roco is actually a good defender which would make the total trend upwards if he was out

**danshan11** · 01-24-19, 04:37 PM

Covington is a good defender but he also scores about 12 pts a game, I think he more a push toward the total, Teague would have the bigger impact here for me.

**shadymcgrady** · 01-24-19, 04:40 PM

That's a good point, teague wasn't a great ball distributor but far better and more effective than Rose who will be getting the lionshare of the teagues minutes

Jury still out on tyus Jones but he's out tonight regardless

**danshan11** · 01-24-19, 05:02 PM

my totals model has been so bad this year, I think it is barely even getting close enough to even think of using it. those huge totals have gotten me over and over this year! It will come around though for sure

**danshan11** · 01-24-19, 05:38 PM

it looks like the line slowly is creeping down, hopefully enough to overcome the juice~!

**shadymcgrady** · 01-25-19, 04:16 PM

Good call on that under, looks like your model may have gotten over the hump and collected a sufficient amount of data points

**danshan11** · 01-25-19, 04:22 PM

thanks but I am far from there yet. I am still not being as predictive as I need to be on totals, but you can see on my sides, I am doing very well. my sides model is miles ahead of the totals right now!

**Maizey** · 01-25-19, 11:06 PM

Extra satisfying to beat the close on the Knicks game and win because of it. Well done Dan.

**danshan11** · 01-25-19, 11:11 PM

Originally posted by Maizey

Extra satisfying to beat the close on the Knicks game and win because of it. Well done Dan.

yes, that is why those points help. thanks for the notice! I hope it turns around soon, the numbers are starting to look good!

**danshan11** · 01-27-19, 11:18 AM

1-27
Cavaliers Over 209.5
Kings +5
Clippers Under 230.5
Thunder +1

**danshan11** · 01-27-19, 06:08 PM

1-27 Jazz Over 216.5

**Maizey** · 01-27-19, 09:13 PM

Very nice line value today, and good results overall despite the better line value games losing.

Have you been getting better line value on overnights or game day plays? I would think that overnights would be softer and you would be able to get better value on them, but it seems like most of your plays are game day.

**danshan11** · 01-27-19, 09:54 PM

Originally posted by Maizey

Very nice line value today, and good results overall despite the better line value games losing.

Have you been getting better line value on overnights or game day plays? I would think that overnights would be softer and you would be able to get better value on them, but it seems like most of your plays are game day.

I wait to bet for limits to rise so basically once pinnacle raises after start of first game overnight but I will make a play anytime the line is where I need it to be up to within a few hours of start so the line still has time to breathe. Thanks for the support, I work really hard on my NBA Model.

**danshan11** · 01-28-19, 10:13 AM

1-28
Knicks +12

**Hman** · 01-28-19, 10:23 AM

GL tonight dan

**Maizey** · 01-28-19, 08:43 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

I wait to bet for limits to rise so basically once pinnacle raises after start of first game overnight but I will make a play anytime the line is where I need it to be up to within a few hours of start so the line still has time to breathe. Thanks for the support, I work really hard on my NBA Model.

Makes sense, so it is totally model driven. Models intrigue me. The NBA is a tough nut to crack model or no model. I wish you luck.

**danshan11** · 01-28-19, 09:10 PM

100% model driven

1/29 Magic Over 221.5

**danshan11** · 01-29-19, 01:18 PM

1-29
Thunder -5