I got the Nuggets game at 218
so I will take
Nuggets
Over 210.5 -105
so I will take
Nuggets
Over 210.5 -105
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11-10
Cavs O213 -105Comment -
11-10
Grizzlies O208.5Comment -
luck tonightComment -
if they all move 5 points a game my way, I will be just fine, beginners luck!Comment -
Originally posted by danshan11
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thanks! I hope it all works out!Comment -
call me DansherComment -
what??? huh!Originally posted by jjgoldComment -
no picksComment -
yeah I took a couple overs, scroll up!Comment -
Record 2-1
Will do CLV later busy
11-11 Hornets O221.5 +100Comment -
11-12 Lines I usually do if I am over 2.5 off on totals I bet it and if sides if over 1.5
These lines do not have injuries I only do injuries if I am off enough to adjust the line before I decide to bet, so if you see my lines here are way off it usually is an injury and I will adjust it before I play it and will write why I played it here
Wizards 220 -6 Heat 223 0.5 Raptors 231.5 -8.5 Bulls 219 -1 Grizzlies 206.5 -3 Thunder 218.5 -10 Timberwolves 222.5 -2.5 Kings 222 3 Clippers 235 5.5 Comment -
why 1.5 on sides ? if you can get the variance down to 1 thats the nuts ,1.5 is ok ,and i personally think 2 is ok
luckComment -
its really hard for me to get any closer than 1.5
if I predict the closer to be 2 it is a really good chance it will range from .5 to 3.5 but very rarely will it be smaller or bigger than that range, so that tells me if I bet anything over 1.5 it is very likely it will move my way.Comment -
danshan11, thanks for posting, best of luck!Originally posted by danshan11Comment -
lines look good Curry out knocks down the clippers line about 3Originally posted by oilcountry99
and 76ers with the roster change in the Butler deal messed up that line but the rest look good.Comment -
11-12 Memphis O203.5
11-12 Kings O216.5Comment -
Team My Line Bet at Line Closed at Line Result CLV Nuggets 217 210.5 -105 215 -128 W 3.24% Bulls 220.5 213 -105 212 106 L -4.36% Grizzlies 213.5 208.5 -105 211 -125 W 2.66% Hornets 224 221.5 100 221.5 -102 L -1.18% Comment -
i thought over and over the over was a coincidence but it is starting to look like a pattern but when you look at the opening numbers it looks like I was close and people are betting heavy on every under early, I think those lines will prop back up to my range on those 2 games
but still seeing way too many overs, I hope it calms down and comes back to where I am over some and under some.Comment -
I also have not had one good side yet, I am really close on sides that is a good thing, I hope it keeps up and obviously I put -3 for Grizz when it should have been +3 but yeah no side bets yet, we shall see tomorrowComment -
this time I did not deduct the margin these are gross CLV numbers now
Date Team My Line Bet at Line Closed at Line Result CLV 11/9 Nuggets 217 210.5 -105 215 -128 W 4.92% 11/10 Bulls 220.5 213 -105 212 106 L -2.68% 11/10 Grizzlies 213.5 208.5 -105 211 -125 W 4.34% 11/11 Hornets 224 221.5 100 221.5 -102 L 0.50% 11/12 Grizzlies 206.5 203.5 100 203 106 L -1.46% 11/12 Kings 222 216.5 -105 220 -137 L 6.59% Comment -
Goodluck to you.....hope you right the ship.Comment -
Lines for today and tomorrow
11/13 Cavs 6.5 221.5 11/13 Nuggets -3 212.5 11/13 Warriors -13 231 11/14 Magic 4 217 11/14 Wizards -9 222.5 11/14 Celtics -11.5 211.5 11/14 Raptors -9.5 222.5 11/14 Nets 0 220.5 11/14 Thunder -8 215 11/14 Timberwolves -0.5 233 11/14 Bucks -8.5 216 11/14 Mavericks 5 214 11/14 Suns 6.5 213.5 11/14 Lakers -0.5 229 Comment -
it looks real promising line value is really strong, I think things will work out OKOriginally posted by Regul8erComment -
Did Houston finally solve there problem? A team like Denver usually never lose 3 in a row at homeComment -
I dont pay attention to teams, I only use a comparative model to come up with fair lines although I do adjust for player injuries and or rest.Comment -
DAN email meComment -
ok , I will
11-14 Trailblazers +2.5Comment -
danshan11, do feel there is any value in ML selections in the NBA?
Do ML parlays or round robins offer value?Comment -
I think it is relative to the point spreads but I use sportsdatabase for data and they dont keep data in ML's just spreads, so what I do is just create comparative (fair) lines from that data, it works really wellOriginally posted by oilcountry99Comment -
I think this might be interesting to a few people
SAG=Sagarin Power Rating
SAG =is the adjust to a point spread
MY PR =My power rankings using my algo
Bet SAG= That is an average of the sagarin rating and the adjusted bettor value
it works basically the same way sag does itTeam SAG SAG MY PR BET/SAG Rockets 91.8 -1.80 -6.42 -3.10 Warriors 99.45 -9.45 -9.57 -10.20 Raptors 96.53 -6.53 -8.87 -7.59 Jazz 93.53 -3.53 -6.95 -4.35 Trailblazers 95.64 -5.64 -5.57 -4.22 Nuggets 94.87 -4.87 -7.16 -5.90 Celtics 95.32 -5.32 -5.69 -5.39 Thunder 92.85 -2.85 -2.62 -3.44 Seventysixers 92.1 -2.10 -3.94 -3.00 Cavaliers 81.9 8.10 3.60 5.15 Bucks 98.27 -8.27 -7.01 -6.31 Wizards 86.99 3.01 -2.52 -0.24 Spurs 90.48 -0.48 -3.37 -2.29 Clippers 92.98 -2.98 -3.35 -1.60 Heat 88.74 1.26 -2.86 -0.72 Timberwolves 87.8 2.20 -1.44 1.87 Pacers 92.58 -2.58 -4.64 -3.06 Pelicans 92.68 -2.68 -2.26 -1.87 Hornets 91.89 -1.89 -2.53 -2.57 Lakers 91.69 -1.69 -3.96 -2.92 Pistons 87.69 2.31 -1.98 0.38 Mavericks 86.47 3.53 0.23 2.29 Nets 87.72 2.28 0.43 2.61 Kings 86.94 3.06 2.52 3.19 Magic 85.08 4.92 2.19 3.51 Bulls 83.56 6.44 3.77 5.56 Knicks 84.04 5.96 2.77 4.41 Hawks 79.95 10.05 5.24 7.15 Suns 81.54 8.46 4.31 7.63 Grizzlies 88.93 1.07 -1.55 0.66
Suns VS Grizzlies neutral location (MYPR)
4.31 to -1.55 so you have 5.86 distance from Suns To Grizzlies so Grizzlies would be a 6pt favorite
real life example Rockets Nuggets
Rockets -6.42 Nuggets -7.16 so Nuggets are .74 better and are home (say 3 even though i adjust for home a little different) gives Nuggets by 3.74 , so it would be Nuggets -3.74 is (fair) per se not counting injuries or rest and I only deduct for a last night game in the NBA most people count 3 in 4 and all that but it is rare now in the NBA so I just count 2 nights in a row
so if you asked me I say Nuggets are 3.5 to 4 pt favorites and would not bet it unless it was 2 or more off 1.5 or 6 so it would be no bet!Comment -
tomorrow's lines I counted for Curry and a couple Spurs injuries
11/15 Rockets -3.5 220.5 11/15 Nuggets -14 221.5 11/15 Clippers -6 219 Comment -
Keeping an eye on this kidComment -
I was on BT for a couple seasons and absolutely destroyed wnba using this same model and last years NBA was really good for me as well with the same model, the problem that keeps me from getting all serious about this is, I get maybe 1 to 3 plays a day when you count variance that means it could take 20 years to overcome variance and see any true profits if I actually can get there!Originally posted by jjgoldComment
