Danshan NBA Picks

[danshan11]

1-29
Spurs Under 226

[Hman]

GL tonight dan

[danshan11]

1-30
Hawks Under 235
Jazz +2

[springfield27]

Hey Danshan, what’s your total on Atlanta? Thanks

[danshan11]

Hey Danshan, what’s your total on Atlanta? Thanks

I have 232 but people have been frenzy betting the over especially on these high total games, I would not be surprised to see it go to 237 but I am hoping it will sharpen up around 233-234

[springfield27]

Appreciate the response Danshan. Tailing the Over on Atl and side Utah.
Good luck!

[danshan11]

Appreciate the response Danshan. Tailing the Over on Atl and side Utah.
Good luck!

most people are taking the over as well and it has started its rise but I think it will sharpen up!

[springfield27]

Sorry i meant UNDER 235 Atlanta🤓

[danshan11]

Sorry i meant UNDER 235 Atlanta邏

hopefully you got 235 at a good price or got 236ish at spot

[danshan11]

1-30
Grizzlies +5.5

[jets96]

sorry about the utah loss , if i looked i wouldve sent you an email , very very strong play on port last night ,
how you doing , you , not the capping

[danshan11]

I am good Jets, thanks for asking! I am just grinding away like normal and you?

[jets96]

same grinding , back and 4th for a couple of weeks but its picking back up 3-0 in college hoops last night , 3-0 in pros last night , its coming around ...took org st today +1

[danshan11]

2-1
Heat +5
Grizzlies +6

[springfield27]

Hey Danshan, what’s your line on Atl vs Uta? Thanks

[danshan11]

<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>

2/1	Away	Hawks	226
2/1	Home	Jazz	-12.5

[danshan11]

<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>

2/1	Away	Grizzlies	209	211
2/1	Home	Hornets	-2	-3
2/1	Away	Celtics	-11
2/1	Home	Knicks	217	211.5
2/1	Away	Thunder	221	235.5
2/1	Home	Heat	2.5	3
2/1	Away	Hawks	226	228
2/1	Home	Jazz	-12.5	-12
2/1	Away	Rockets	225	227
2/1	Home	Nuggets	-5.5	-6

first column is my main model, second is a sag using model to just kinda keep me away from big errors

[springfield27]

Thanks man! Will get them this time!

[bettingman6]

What's your line on the Heat vs Thunder? And the Jazz vs the Hawks?

In my opinion the Thunder should be about 1.5 or 2 point favorites, and they're actually 5 point favorites.

Anyway, I have the Heat +175 moneyline in the game.

I also have the Jazz covering as 11.5 point favorites vs the Hawks.

Too late to take my bets back now, but I wanted to know if you think I made the right bets.

[danshan11]

thunder I have at -2.5 so I bet it heat at 5
I have the Jazz at -12.5 so that is a no bet for me

[bettingman6]

Also, what are your feelings on moneylines vs the spread? And how much should you feel the spread is off before you bet on a game?

I usually lay off on a game unless I feel the spread is at least 2.5 points off.

Also, i believe it's best to bet on the moneyline if I'm betting on the underdog and I feel the favorite should be favored by 4 or less. Although it's painful to do this, I'm beginning to force myself to bet more on underdog moneylines even if I feel the favorite is probably going to win. If the breakeven for the moneyline is 33% and you feel the underdog has a 38% chance of winning, that actually has a higher expected value than betting on the spread if you feel the underdog has a 57% chance of covering at -110 odds.

I believe it's best not to bet on favorite moneylines unless you're doing a parlay. You should either take the spread on the favorite or lay off on the game.

[danshan11]

I do 2 pts on sides and 3 on totals only because my model is rarely more than 1.5 off on sides and 2 on totals.

I only bet assuming the line will move, I never consider whether they will win lose or cover.

I model spreads I do not do moneylines.

I hate the Grizzlies at 6, I think they will probably lose and not cover but I think the line will come down enough to cover the margin. I try to be right at a rate of 70% or better, that the line moves enough to cover the margin and long term that should be enough to win but its a long process. I right now am losing on totals cause of the crazy way totals have went but sides are hitting very well!


<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>

2/1/2019	89	94	3	48.63%	0.75%
Sides	44	36	1	55.00%	1.13%
Totals	45	58	2	43.69%	0.50%

the blue number is my CLV above the margin, totals have been hard to do with the super scoring and huge totals this season

[Hman]

GL tonight dan

[bettingman6]

AAA

[danshan11]

yeah my Grizzlies play was real sharp WOW, half the team is sitting today, they cant afford to sit anyone

[danshan11]

Date	City	Teams	Mine	Bet Line
2/2	Away	Hawks	-0.5	2.5
2/2	Home	Kings	230	235
2/2	Away	Rockets	4	7.5
2/2	Home	Wizards	4.5	7
2/2	Away	Lakers	8.5	10.5

[bettingman6]

What's your opinion on the Mavericks-Cavaliers? That line seems a bit high to me after the Mavs traded for a bunch of injured guys.

[danshan11]

I am scared of that game, too many ifs and moves to get an accurate line for me. I do have the line at -6.5 212 but who knows

[bettingman6]

Anyway, I've taken the Wizards +3.5 in the first half.

Also taken the Lakers +7 in the first half. Not sure why they're assigning the line 7 in the first half/4.5 in the second half, but it's an odd quirk on the sportsbooks you can take advantage of.

[danshan11]

+7 first half is a smoking deal at -105 on the lakers if that is what you got

[danshan11]

2-4 Spurs -1.5

[Hman]

GL tonight

[danshan11]

2-5 Raptors +4.5

[danshan11]

2-5 Heat +7.5

[danshan11]

2-6 Spurs +11