A -500 tennis bet for Friday morning...

Matt Rain · 06-19-09, 11:08 AM

I'm starting to believe I should simply fade Lou's picks at the best price I can find, it would be less work than line-shopping blindly.

ClownyLou, I appreciate your work and would like to subscribe to your newsletter. I got a logo all made for ya if you don't already have one.

"Sic" · 06-19-09, 11:09 AM

Continually lose -500 plays...I just dont get why u do this

Bread · 06-19-09, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

I didn't play Safina 1st set, or are you simply fudging my plays?

Safina with another break and up 4-2, let's hear the smack talk now.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-19-09, 11:12 AM

I think it's simply ego now. If there truly is a "model" that Lou is using, he is desperate to prove it's worth - hence the Wimbledon contest. I said it before, doing research is needed in all sports handicapping, but there is definitely an overkill factor if you're looking at as many things as Lou claims to look at for each match.

SBR Lou · 06-19-09, 11:18 AM

I'm not concerned with how Safina played today, that is completely irrelevant. The number of break points she gave up or squandered is not meaningful to me, the most significant thing to take from this game is the % of negative EV I had.

The line opened at -555/+480 and closed at -475/+417 giving me -4.37% EV at close.

But again, it's one game, and the market doesn't agree everytime- anyone suggesting the market agrees with them on all their plays probably has a bridge to sell you too.

englishmike · 06-19-09, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by onthewhat

How does Lou do it? Honestly.

Good god.

Compared to you Lou is a respected gambler.

I've got a boatload more respect for guys that take a view on a game, as opposed to blindly tailing (stalking) a fat guy sat in an apt in Montreal in a string vest and boiled Grey boxer shorts.

pavyracer · 06-19-09, 11:41 AM

Holy Shit! Another loser. Where will it end? I have known of no gamblers that can sustain ten -500 losses in a row.

The HG · 06-19-09, 11:43 AM

mathdotcom · 06-19-09, 11:43 AM

Did this seriously lose?

Can't believe I did not bet..... why do I keep denying myself free money?

Seriously, whatever system Lou is using it is amazing at picking big favorites that will lose. Fukkin goldmine.

jellobiafra · 06-19-09, 11:46 AM

Unbelievable. Poor Lou.

But then again anybody that posts about a great -500 (it was actually -555) bet kind of deserves what he gets. I would never play a -555 anything. Well.... maybe soccer, but definitely not tennis!

BeatTheJerk · 06-19-09, 11:50 AM

What a fuking ass clown of a Tennis capper this guy is, you can't make this shit up ............... I'm glad I didn't throw anything on it. I was thinking about it because I thought he was due to win one of his fatal -500 plays finally and that didn't happen once again. I like how calm cool and collected he was throughout the whole match as he flushed away some more funds that was classic lol. Get 'em next time Lou !!! ahahahaha

j0hnnyv · 06-19-09, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

Well, only one of us will emerge victorious, but I hate to see my buds lose so GL to you anyway.

Thanks Lou I needed a big dog winner in the worst way!!!!

The HG · 06-19-09, 12:30 PM

tullamore · 06-19-09, 01:05 PM

Thanks Lou, I look forward to your Wimbledon picks.

tacomax · 06-19-09, 02:20 PM

Bad beat, Lou.

tacomax · 07-05-09, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

I plan to use the Wimbledon contest as a vehicle to make a statement re: my skills as a tennis handicapping evaluator.

Statement made loud and clear.

j0hnnyv · 07-05-09, 04:37 PM

SBR Lou · 07-05-09, 04:54 PM

Originally posted by tacomax

Statement made loud and clear.

Federer -115 and was -830 in finals.

That'd be two tourneys in a row.

Must've missed this: http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-han...mpionship.html

durito · 07-05-09, 05:00 PM

yet you still lost money

tacomax · 07-05-09, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

Federer -115 and was -830 in finals.

That'd be two tourneys in a row.

Must've missed this: http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-han...mpionship.html

You're missing the point. Look again:

Originally posted by CrazyLou

I plan to use the Wimbledon contest as a vehicle to make a statement re: my skills as a tennis handicapping evaluator.

What statement was made concerning your skills as a tennis handicapping evaluator in the tournament contest? The statement you appear to be currently making is that if you include non-contest picks then your record would be a bit better (although still negative). Presumable your non-posted picks were big winners as well. So, I ask again:

What statement was made concerning your skills as a tennis handicapping evaluator in the tournament contest?

SBR Lou · 07-05-09, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by tacomax

What statement was made concerning your skills as a tennis handicapping evaluator

That I have picked outright futures winners in the past 3 of 4 slams including an +1150 dog, and a -115 that was favored in the finals to the tune of -830.

I also had Serena's future on the WTA side but don't remember if I posted that, however some know about that pick.

Either way, the tournament contest was uneventful at least in so far as my picks go, think I went 15-14 and lost 2 or 3 units.

yisman · 07-05-09, 06:05 PM

A lot of people beat you.

tacomax · 07-05-09, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by yisman

A lot of people beat you.

He had a winning record, though. Stop focusing on the negatives.

j0hnnyv · 07-05-09, 08:20 PM

lou you missed on way too many easy matches pal. i went 22-8 and just started really studying tennis hard the past 6 months. you have been a tennis evaluator for atleast what 4-5-6 years??

well see what happens in the US open. i look for you to redeem yourself

yisman · 07-05-09, 08:27 PM

I was surprised Lou managed to finish down only 4.23 units.

I hope jjgold joins for the US Open so he and Lou can battle it out for last place.