A -500 tennis bet for Friday morning...

[SBR Lou]

Dinara Safina -555
vs Tamarine Tanasugarn

Both players dropped the 1st set in their Quarter Finals matches Thursday, but each recovered nicely breaking their opponents at least once in each following set.

Without further ado, I give you the tennis handicapping 'Tale Of The Tape'.

Dinara Safina
Age: 23
Height: 6'1''
Prize $ Won: $8,283,046

Tamarine Tanasugarn
Age: 32
Height: 5'5''
Prize $ Won: $2,662,605

-555 on a player that is clearly superior in every facet, on the surface, on the return, on the serve, I think this one is not -700 right now for the simple fact that Safina is "less experienced" on the tour. Although, I scoff at that notion considering the fact that in 8 years she's earned $6M more than Tamarine has in half the time.

Safina straight up and in parlays is the way to go here.

[BeatTheJerk]

Very bold prediction my friend GL on the juice spilling selection by all means necessary

[mathdotcom]

You're the dumbest guy on SBR, hands down

[Matt Rain]

Sudden 60-cent move at Pinny. Guess which way it didn't go.

[mathdotcom]

CrazyL has more faders than the universe has particles

[pavyracer]

Sudden 60-cent move at Pinny. Guess which way it didn't go.

I swear either donjuan or durito faded CrazyLou after he posted this play.

[mathdotcom]

I am too lazy to fade but i swear i should bet the farm on this non-Safina chick

[Matt Rain]

I got a bit of +450 at bet365. Will add to it if SIA opens higher.

[SBR Lou]

I got a bit of +450 at bet365. Will add to it if SIA opens higher.

Do you really like the dog?

[The HG]

You're the dumbest guy on SBR, hands down

you obviously don't read my posts very much do you


I agree with this pick, and I am looking to bet it, but IF AND ONLY IF I can find it at -600 or higher. At -500 it doesn't fall into my system.

[mathdotcom]

Lou I would take a chick with no arms if you bet against her.

[mathdotcom]

you obviously don't read my posts very much do you


I agree with this pick, and I am looking to bet it, but IF AND ONLY IF I can find it at -600 or higher. At -500 it doesn't fall into my system.

[Matt Rain]

Do you really like the dog?

I don't like anything. I just bet. Money. To win. Money. Real money.

I was on her for her last two matches.

[SBR Lou]

I don't like anything. I just bet. Money. To win. Money. Real money.

I was on her for her last two matches.

Ah, so there's the reason you're on her again.

Dangerous.

[Matt Rain]

I agree with this pick, and I am looking to bet it, but IF AND ONLY IF I can find it at -600 or higher. At -500 it doesn't fall into my system.

-600 is that much more reassuring to bet into than -500, let alone -110. It feels like free money. Who the hell bets into +450 dogs? They lose, like, 75% of the time!

[SBR Lou]

Who the hell bets into +450 dogs? They lose, like, 75% of the time!

Who bets +1150's that close at +500?

[Matt Rain]

Ah, so there's the reason you're on her again.

Dangerous.

You're an idiot. You're going to lose 5.55 units if you lose that one bet. If she loses, I'll still be up by 1.1 on her. Further proof that you don't really bet.

And I had to check to see if I really bet on her before - I don't follow the sport and I usually forget what I've bet on seconds after I place the bet. I really don't give a crap whether or not I won with her before. It's a bet like any other - I guesstimate it as being +EV and I bet.

[mathdotcom]

Do you think CrazyL is serious?

I really hope he is joking.

[SBR Lou]

You're an idiot. You're going to lose 5.55 units if you lose that one bet. If she loses, I'll still be up by 1.1. Further proof that you don't really bet.

Not certain how you would make that inference.

From your lack of a reasoned explanation as to backing the dog, and your admission that you had tailed her the previous two matches which cashed for you, I made the assumption that your reason for backing her here is simply because of that- which is dangerous. I'm sure even the Think Tank guys you might look up to would agree with that.

[Matt Rain]

Who bets +1150's that close at +500?

You CrazyLou, the expert tennis handicapping evaluator.

[Matt Rain]

I bet good numbers I can find, CrazyLou. It doesn't matter that it's tennis or the gender of the winner of So you think you can dance?.

Bring on Wimbledon.

[SBR Lou]

Bring on Wimbledon.

I plan to use the Wimbledon contest as a vehicle to make a statement re: my skills as a tennis handicapping evaluator.

BOL to you.

[Matt Rain]

Not certain how you would make that inference.

From your lack of a reasoned explanation as to backing the dog, and your admission that you had tailed her the previous two matches which cashed for you, I made the assumption that your reason for backing her here is simply because of that- which is dangerous. I'm sure even the Think Tank guys you might look up to would agree with that.

I don't look up to the Think Thank gang (nor down - most of their stuff is simply incomprehensible to me). And of course it would be silly for me to back Tanasugarn simply because she won her last two matches. That's not what I do. I bet on her because, guess what, she's on the board, and some books have good numbers on her. Is that so hard to understand?

[Matt Rain]

I plan to use the Wimbledon contest as a vehicle to make a statement re: my skills as a tennis handicapping evaluator.

BOL to you.

GL right back.

[mathdotcom]

Matt, he's right. You're supposed to cap based on prize money won, age, and height.

I wish someone was tracking how much Lou is down on his tennis picks. It's incredible how many heavy chalk plays he loses.

Lou, you're forgetting Safina is a weak woman who might start crying because she breaks a nail, and then collapses. That reason alone is enough never to take a woman at that much chalk.

Ivanovic -700
Jankovic -500
Someone else -900
Ivanovic -180

Do you realize how many times you'd need Safina to win this bet to make up for even the -900 loss? That's right, 9 fukkin times.

[Matt Rain]

This is all immaterial when you're not concerned with winning money, mathy. A -900 loss is just one loss, not 9.

Thanks for the advice about taking age and height into account. I will try to incorporate that into my filters.

[SBR Lou]

It was not my intention to attribute any sense of worth in each players stats, I just thought for a casual sports fan it might be neat info to have. Whether or not a number has value would of course not be determined by a professional tennis player's age, height, or net worth.

[tacomax]

Thanks for the advice about taking age and height into account. I will try to incorporate that into my filters.

Don't forget to add bladder size in your tennis handicapping evaluator model. It can be offputting if an opponent has to take a piss every other game and I feel that this should be an additional filter in your tennis handicapping evaluator model.

[The HG]

Don't forget to add bladder size in your tennis handicapping evaluator model. It can be offputting if an opponent has to take a piss every other game and I feel that this should be an additional filter in your tennis handicapping evaluator model.

nice. female tennis players taking a piss every other game.


BOYYYYIIIIIIIIIIINNNNNNGGGGGGG!!!!!!!


dude they should have bathroom cams in the bathrooms for women's tennis matches so you can watch them when they take pisses in the middle of the matches.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'll play Tanasugarn and not just as a total fade of Lou and his chalky nature. The fact that Tanasugarn beat her here last year is why your price is where it's at. 7-5, 6-3 and this might be Safina's worst surface.

[SBR Lou]

I'll play Tanasugarn and not just as a total fade of Lou and his chalky nature. The fact that Tanasugarn beat her here last year is why your price is where it's at. 7-5, 6-3 and this might be Safina's worst surface.

It might as well be Safina's best surface because she is far more skilled on it than Tansaugarn, and I think that's an important tennis handicapping fact to weigh.

[EaglesPhan36]

What? Tanasugarn. Won this tournament in 2008. QF at Wimbledon in 2008. 15-2 on grass since this time last year. Safina. Lost the Final to Tanasugarn. Out in Round 3 at Wimbledon. Has never made it past Round 3 at Wimbledon. 9-2 on the surface since this tournament last year. Losses to Tanasugarn and Peer.

Safina's best surface as of 2009 is clay, no contest. And weren't you the one calling her a choker at the French, now she's your girl? Poor girl.

[pavyracer]

I plan to use the Wimbledon contest as a vehicle to make a statement re: my skills as a tennis handicapping evaluator.

BOL to you.

And I plan to use June's Playboy issue tonight as a vehicle to make a statement re: my skills as a great penis masturbator.

[Matt Rain]

And I plan to use June's Playboy issue tonight as a vehicle to make a statement re: my skills as a great penis masturbator.

I like this version of pavyracer.

[j0hnnyv]

The dog it is!!!!