Thursday's P.E.P.

[Razz_Donkey]

thanks razz


the col game opened at 9.5 and has gone down to 9 even though 75% are on the over. i think garza pitches a good game today

Hmmmmm, every book I'm looking at shows the line opening at 9 and either staying there or bouncing up to 9.5. Point me in the right direction if you don't mind. What book are you looking at?

[lakerboy]

Hmmmmm, every book I'm looking at shows the line opening at 9 and either staying there or bouncing up to 9.5. Point me in the right direction if you don't mind. What book are you looking at?

bro i use pinny its at 9 there

[dreamjob]

bro i use pinny its at 9 there

Boo pinny don't like us Us players

[lakerboy]

Boo pinny don't like us Us players

too bad see what u miss out on- a line movement and better odds- but if you take the under you would rather have 9.5

[dreamjob]

I know I use to use pinny till they kicked us out in early 2007. I still like the over though.

[Razz_Donkey]

I don't have any feelings on this total. I see Pinny opening yesterday at this time at over 9 -115. Its now at over 9 -123. Few books have it at 9.5 but that is what I would expect with 75% on the over.

[Minkus]

King-Thanks for the nice Tennis play

also what are we discussing so far and whats on the card for now?
I woke up late and do not feel like reading all thats been said, its a lot

[Minkus]

I called over 5.5 for the Phillies first five innings

[dreamjob]

too bad see what u miss out on- a line movement and better odds- but if you take the under you would rather have 9.5

So should we bet against the public on the total????

[Razz_Donkey]

I called over 5.5 for the Phillies first five innings

Good call Minkus, that Toronto pitcher was all nerves, not a great outing for him.

I'd hate to miss out on this Padres play, anyone heard from TIK?

[Minkus]

Good call Minkus, that Toronto pitcher was all nerves, not a great outing for him.

I'd hate to miss out on this Padres play, anyone heard from TIK?

Who do you like on the Padres?

Someone i know is on the Padres. but idk

[dreamjob]

Who do you like on the Padres?

Someone i know is on the Padres. but idk

Like em Nice hit on Tor/Phi first five minkus

[OB 2138]

He probably went broke from all these parlays.. lol im joking.

[Minkus]

I am leaning.
Padres First 5-Mariners starting a bad pitcher
Rockies First 5-Jiminez lasts past 6 innings for the Rockies. Garza Cant get past the 6th inning yet in his last two starts

[dreamjob]

Good call Minkus, that Toronto pitcher was all nerves, not a great outing for him.

I'd hate to miss out on this Padres play, anyone heard from TIK?

I remember reading in an earlier post that we could lock up a parlay without him and then do one later with TIK.

[dreamjob]

I can't parlay with first five with my book.

[Minkus]

I can't parlay with first five with my book.

Ahhh..I find it more profitable to play first 5 innings.

So how does everyone feel about the Rockies???
We have 10 minutes.

[dreamjob]

I like Col. I personally think Garza gets lit up quick.

[Razz_Donkey]

I'm already playing these next two games on an individual basis. Me feelings here would be SDG and the over, and COL and the under...

[Minkus]

I like Col. I personally think Garza gets lit up quick.

Thats how i feel
I still need more info

[Minkus]

MARINERS: Brandon Morrow
Last start: Jun 13, 3-5 ND at Colorado Rockies
IP: 3, ER: 1, WHIP: 2.333, K: 4, BB: 4, Pitches: 64, Rating: 49
Pitcher's avgs.
(Last 6 starts)
IP: 5.17 ER: 3.2
WHIP: 1.74
K: 5.3 BB: 3.8
Pitches: 95
Rating: 48

PADRES: Josh Geer
Last start: Jun 13, 1-9 L at Los Angeles Angels
IP: 5-2/3, ER: 7, WHIP: 1.765, K: 5, BB: 1, Pitches: 93, Rating: 27

Pitcher's avgs.
(Last 14 starts)
IP: 5.77 ER: 2.9
WHIP: 1.41
K: 3.3 BB: 1.5
Pitches: 92
Rating: 48

I booked Rockies first 5.
Lets discuss this game

It looks 50/50 for me

[dreamjob]

Geez gotta run more errands. I would love to lock up an early parlay. Oh well I will be back later to lock up the late one. Everyone betting now GL on your games. I hope you win them all.

[Razz_Donkey]

Alright guys, I'll be back for the later games. Good luck on your plays.

[Minkus]

Tonight we will hit a parlay. Did some homework and still going

Mets VS Orioles
Mets-Livian Hernandez(5-1)(2-0 @ Baltimores field in career)
Orioles-Jason Berken(1-3)

Mets-Road .441, WHIP 1.407
Orioles-Home .541, Whip 1.407
Weather, Cloudy 77, 79% Humidity, Wind from N, 0 MPH

-Orioles look good with the home stats and the Whip. BUT, Mets have a better 3-4-5 Batting order production AND they are facing Berken, who is he again? Also Hernandez is 2-0 on Baltimores field, 5-1 this season.

METS ML

[Razz_Donkey]

Good homework Minkus, but check out the line movement. 78% on the Mets and line has dropped them from -105 to a +115 in some places. Might be a fluke, but that should make you a bit worried about taking the Mets. We should continue to watch this one closely.

[Minkus]

Tigers VS Cardinals
Tigers-Rick Porcello (7-4)
Cardinals-Joel Pineiro (5-7) 2.52 ERA @ HOME. (5.27 on the road)

Tigers-Road .459
Cardinals-Home .583
Partly Cloudy, 91, 55% humidity. Wind from SSW gentle 8MPH. Wind towards outfield.

The Cardinals have NEVER faced Tigers pitcher Porcello(7-4).

Batting order 3-4-5 production, last 3 games:
Tigers: 1.010 | Cardinals: 1.405

Bullpen 10-game performance:
Tigers WHIP: 1.407 | Cardinals WHIP: 1.370
EVEN

OVER 10

[Minkus]

Good homework Minkus, but check out the line movement. 78% on the Mets and line has dropped them from -105 to a +115 in some places. Might be a fluke, but that should make you a bit worried about taking the Mets. We should continue to watch this one closely.

I dont watch line movements, public is usually wrong.
BUT, if anything METS ML First 5 Innings might be better, i Cant let Hernandez go, he is solid, and Berken for the orioles sucks. And with the mets 3-4-5 batting order production, should light Berken up, while Hernandez holds the fort down.

[OB 2138]

Fvck the line movement talks, I'm poundin the Mets.

[OB 2138]

Thats what the books want, they made Balt. the fav to get more noobs jumpin on them.

[OB 2138]

If Baltimore was +150 or more would anyone take them?

[Minkus]

If Baltimore was +150 or more would anyone take them?

NO, i wouldnt take them in this game either

[OB 2138]

Exactly. I would take the Mets while it's still +113 or whatever it is right now.

[Minkus]

So far i like
Mets ML & First 5
Tigers/Cardinals OVER 10

[Razz_Donkey]

Fvck the line movement talks, I'm poundin the Mets.

Bud, I'm not going to say that the Mets are the wrong pick. But this is the wrong attitude to take when capping a game. What do you think Vegas is doing here? Just giving the 78% of bettors a little extra bang for their buck? I had no idea they were so generous... All I'm saying is that this one should be watched closely.

[Razz_Donkey]

Minkus, great work on the DET STL game. I was feeling the under last night, but between the line moving and your breakdown I like this play on the over. Not sure where you are getting 10 though, I still see it at 8.5 in a few spots and even money on 9...