Thursday's P.E.P.

[KingRevolver]

Where do you live, Minkus?

I'm in Phoenix.

[Minkus]

Where do you live, Minkus?

I'm in Phoenix.

Pa,Scranton

[HoulihansTX]

Take....

Redsox -1.5RL -110
Lester on the mound, going against hapless Marlins, C'mon

Rangers -1.5RL +115
Padilla on the mound, Rangers at home so he should receive plenty of run support.

[Razz_Donkey]

Alright guys, here are the games that I'm interested in. I'll be up in the morning to check and see where the money is going and what the lines are doing. Might be one good one in there to use, perhaps a good fade as well. Only going to be up for another half hour.

- ATL
- COL
- SDG
- NYM/BAL U11
- DET
- DET/STL U9
- KCR

[HoulihansTX]

- ATL (Fade)
- COL (Fade they had their run, back to reality)
- SDG (YES)
- NYM/BAL U11 (???? Lots of hits yesterday)
- DET (YES)
- DET/STL U9 (YES Cards bats are cold as it gets)
- KCR (Fade Cant even win with Grienke on mound)

[Minkus]

whats your current MLB record TX?

[Razz_Donkey]

Thanks for the input TX, but I'm not ready to fade KCR or COL just yet.

[TheIntegrityKid]

Okay guys, I'm here...

Was having MAJOR internet probs... ahhhh

[TheIntegrityKid]

what do we got???

should we do any of the early games??? doubled and DJ arent here, neither is OB...

just us night owls... but we can pick something and im sure they will tail.... or we can set up some voting so when they get up, they will have something to vote on... just a suggestion...

or... we can do 2 P.E.P.s one for morn/early games and the other for nite games...

[Razz_Donkey]

I'm off to bed but will be up well before the games. Keep working at it boys!

[TheIntegrityKid]

im liking, det, det under and nym bal under...

and i still LOVE the braves RL

[TheIntegrityKid]

i'm gonna go to bed guys...

not sure if im gonna make it time for the early games... if you guys find something you like, feel free to take it without me..

AND for the morning guys, dbldown11, DJ, OB, etc... if you guys come to a consensus for an afternoon or evening play, feel free to lock it up and ill go with what's decided if im not here in time. i don't wanna hold you guys up again by making it on here late...

[KingRevolver]

BENJAMIN BECKER, FOLKS! What do you think Minkus? I told you.

[Razz_Donkey]

Nice hit Kinger. After looking at the lines this morning as well as where the percentage of bets have been I'm left liking SDG and ATL the most. Still somewhat interested in COL and KCR. Other ones that I didn't notice yesetrday that might be worth looking at are ARI/KC Over 8 and BAL.

[dreamjob]

Good morning team, sorry I haven't been on yet. Been running errands. Hey razz you have talked about watching line movements. How much do they need to move before it causes concern?

[Razz_Donkey]

Hey DJ,

I'm certainly not an expert with line movements, lots of guys here who know way more than I do. In general though what I'm looking at are games in which the majority of bettors are on one side and yet the line moves the other way. For example, I mentioned ARI/KC game above. The line opened at 7.5 (-110) and even with 76% on the under it has jumped to 8 (-115o). It just acts as a red flag for me, I always try to get more info about that game before betting a side.

There is no real set amount of movement which causes a concern. Rather any anomalous movement is worth looking at.

[dreamjob]

Thanks razz I'm trying to figure this stuff out so I can become a better capper.

[Razz_Donkey]

You and me both bud. After further inspection with the Atlanta game it may be best to pass. I'm seeing T-storms and rain on the forecast right now... Any rain delays could cause the starters to come out early and as we all know Atlanta has a terrible bullpen. Anyone here know if the game will start on time?

[dreamjob]

"

[dreamjob]

4 out of the 7 early games have a good chance of rain. Might not want to bother with those.

[Razz_Donkey]

Not only that DJ, but check out the other factors. Royals are hitting the snot out of the ball right now (about the same as Colorado). The temperatures out there are going to be in the low 90's with no humidity. The ball is going to be jumping, not to mention the 17mph winds blowing out to left center!

[dreamjob]

Not only that DJ, but check out the other factors. Royals are hitting the snot out of the ball right now (about the same as Colorado). The temperatures out there are going to be in the low 90's with no humidity. The ball is going to be jumping, not to mention the 17mph winds blowing out to left center!

Great point razz, Can never do too much homework.

[dreamjob]

"

[Razz_Donkey]

I should be using a subscription service for true live odds DJ, but I look at all the major sites, vegasinsider, pregame, here, etc. As for the lines you mentioned, the ARI/KC game opened at 7.5 at Bookmaker and probably a few other books. The PIT/MIN game is interesting, because it just dropped out really quickly (under 8.5 was +100 now -120). Not sure about the TAM/COL game, I'm seeing 75% on the over and the line going up from 9 to 9.5. Looks normal to me.

[Steve0432]

Really need to look into these picks they are showing money

Florida +175 to win but RL is -105 that says it all to me, worth the gamble
LA dodgers taking the RL
AZ is a solid pick
White Sox getting +150 the cubs bats are so bad right now the Sox can stay close until the relief comes in and blows Zambranos' game. That is if Z is on today as well

[dreamjob]

Why is Tampa Bay favored on the road? Colorado has won 12 out of their last 13. Still not .500 though thats sad. Jiminez has greatly improved since the start of the season. Pitched 17 innings in his last 2 starts, giving up 6 runs but won both games. Garza on the other hand his last 2 starts pitched 10.2 innings 4 runs and both no decisions. With the weather being around 80 degrees low humdity and that thin air. I like both Col and Over here.

[dreamjob]

Really need to look into these picks they are showing money

Florida +175 to win but RL is -105 that says it all to me, worth the gamble
LA dodgers taking the RL
AZ is a solid pick
White Sox getting +150 the cubs bats are so bad right now the Sox can stay close until the relief comes in and blows Zambranos' game. That is if Z is on today as well

Thanks for the contribution Steve. I will definitely look into those.

[OB 2138]

Ubaldoooooooooooooo

[dreamjob]

What up OB? You like the Col too???

[lakerboy]

okay guys these are the calls

San Diego over
Col under
san diego rl
tigers ml

[OB 2138]

I posted my early picks for today in my thread, 2 of them already started though..What you guys leanin on?

[Razz_Donkey]

okay guys these are the calls

San Diego over
Col under
san diego rl
tigers ml

The only one I'm not in love with there is the COL under. Liking the rest of them a lot though. Good work lakerboy.

[lakerboy]

The only one I'm not in love with there is the COL under. Liking the rest of them a lot though. Good work lakerboy.

thanks razz


the col game opened at 9.5 and has gone down to 9 even though 75% are on the over. i think garza pitches a good game today

[OB 2138]

looks like you got the sd game mixed with the col game..

[OB 2138]

why you like the over with 2 bad offensive teams?