Originally posted on 11/14/2014:

I love it when people say things like "the books want you to take...." as if they have a freaking clue what goes on at Vegas headquarters when the lines debut each week. These are the same people that throw buzzwords like "trap" or "fishy" around when they look at the odds and can't make sense of it.

Unless you have a special phone-line to the Vegas war room, where odds are set, and some insider is inexplicably willing to spill all their secrets to you, don't tell me what "Vegas wants." I'm sure if Vegas wanted all of us to unload on the Lions, they'd give us more than a point or two. In fact, as of this post, the spread has moved to a pick'em.... Yeah, they're trying really hard to get us on the Lions.

The spread is what it is... nothing more. Bet who you like to cover. If you can't figure it out, move along.

I could just as easily say that Vegas wants you to take the Cards. Think about it... you get the home team who is 8-1 and facing a one dimensional dome team who lost to the Panthers on the road and nearly lost to the punchless Falcons as well. Sure, Palmer is out, but Stanton has three starts this year under his belt, including a win over the 49ers... and the Cards aren't laying any points?

Wow, it looks like free money!!! Cardinals all day! Oh wait, that's what Vegas wants you to think... I won't be outdone by those cigar-chomping hucksters. If that's what they want, then I'm on the Lions.

All bullshit aside, I like the Lions here a lot. The Cardinals have had some close shaves, including last week's misleading final score. Even with Palmer in the lineup, the Cardinals have sputtered on offense more than you'd expect from a team with as many weapons as they have, and facing an improved Lions D won't be any picnic. Furthermore, the Cards pass defense hasn't been up to snuff and will face a potent attack who have their All-World receiver back in the fold.

If Vegas wants me to take the Lions, then I'm more than happy to oblige.