Suicidekings 2012 NFL Thread

[suicidekings]

Packers -3 (-105) x3
LIVE: Packers ML (-116) x2
Cowboys -11 (+155) x1
Buccaneers -1 (-109) x1
Eagles +4 (-112) x1
Teaser: Jets +10 / Under 46 (-110) x1
Jets 2H ML (+175) x1

Early Games: 5-2 (+6.63u)

Teaser: Broncos -2 / Under 54 (-110) x2
LIVE: Broncos -3.5 (+100) x8
Chargers 2H +3 (+104) x4

Afternoon Games: 3-0 (+14.16u)

11/18: 8-2 (+20.79u)
YTD: 63-60-1 (+28.07u)

[suicidekings]

SNF

Teaser: Steelers +10 / Under 48 (-128) x2

*ties win

[suicidekings]

Under 41 (-110) x1.5

[suicidekings]

Under 41 (-110) x1.5

LIVE (7-0 Steelers, 1Q 12:39)

Under 44.5 (+121) x2

[suicidekings]

SNF

Teaser: Steelers +10 / Under 48 (-128) x2
Under 41 (-110) x1.5
LIVE: Under 44.5 (+121) x2

3-0 (+5.92u)

11/18: 11-2 (+26.71u)
YTD: 66-60-1 (+33.99u)

[No coincidences]

11/18: 11-2 (+26.71u)
YTD: 66-60-1 (+33.99u)

Wow! Outstanding work!

[suicidekings]

11/24

Stanford -1 (-105) x5

Last week was a perfect storm for UCLA to beat a deeply flawed USC team that's dominated them for over a decade. It was their biggest and most important game of the year, that also clinched the PAC12 South with the victory. The win was a huge emotional high for the Bruins and they're now in a perfect spot for a letdown against a much better Stanford team. They now have nothing to lose and are guaranteed a spot in the PAC12 championship game and a chance at a Rose Bowl Berth.

Stanford also had a huge game against Oregon, but I think they knew full well before the game that they were not the huge underdog in the matchup that the media said they were. They played a confident, efficient game and their outstanding defense did a great job of containing a Ducks offense that had previously looked overpowering. It was also a big win for the Cardinal, but the big difference between the two games is that for Stanford, the work isn't done yet. They need to win their final game of the year (or rely on Oregon to lose the Civil War) to guarantee the PAC12 North for themselves, and I expect them to march into the game next week and win definitively.

I think this line is taking two teams coming off impressive, high-profile wins and calling the game basically even, but I don't see it that way. If the Cardinal win this game and the PAC12 Championship game is a rematch of this game, then it could be a very different story, but in this situation, I think there's a definitive right side.

[suicidekings]

Wow! Outstanding work!

Thanks NC.

[suicidekings]

11/24

Stanford -1 (-105) x5

Mississippi -1 (-105) x2

Huge game for the Rebels to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2009. They played extremely close games against LSU and TAMU and against the in-state rival, there's a huge amount of motivation for them here to reward the home crowd with a strong performance to finish the year. MSU looked much less impressive against tough opponents this season, IMO, and overall played a noticeably easier schedule than Ole Miss.

[suicidekings]

11/19

Bears / Niners Under 37 (-108) x1
Teaser: Bears +14 / Under 44 (-120) x2

Bought yesterday. The lucky weekend continues...

[coitus_maximus]

Wow. Wish I had bought yesterday. Got Bears +5.

[suicidekings]

Wow. Wish I had bought yesterday. Got Bears +5.

Anything better than +4 right now and you're still in pretty solid shape, I would say. I really regret not putting more on the U37 when I had the chance as that line move was much more predictable...

[suicidekings]

11/19

Bears / Niners Under 37 (-108) x1
Teaser: Bears +14 / Under 44 (-120) x2

Prop: First score a CHI passing touchdown (+670) x0.75
Prop: First score a CHI rushing touchdown (+669) x0.75
Prop: M.Forte rushing yards over 70½ (+105) x1

[JKosack7]

Where did you get those props

[suicidekings]

Where did you get those props

5Dimes. They're off the board now.

[suicidekings]

LIVE (1Q 6:14, 10-0 SF)

Bears ML (+490) x1

[suicidekings]

LIVE:

Under 37 (-108) x4

[suicidekings]

LIVE:

Under 37 (-108) x1
LIVE: Under 37 (-108) x4

2H Over 17 (+112) x5

I'm backing out right now. No point in making this any worse than it has to be...

[2daBank]

i think the under still hits sk,,,i hit un 44ev live.. missed getting it earlier and bm and dsi live betting messing with me....hell i took chi un 7 +120 2nd half, figure push at worst...

[suicidekings]

i think the under still hits sk,,,i hit un 44ev live.. missed getting it earlier and bm and dsi live betting messing with me....hell i took chi un 7 +120 2nd half, figure push at worst...

Harbaugh makes an example of the Bears tonight. No doubt in my mind.

I'm just disgusted with myself for doing my capping today, knowing that everything was pointing to Kaepernick being a success tonight (albeit not to this degree), and STILL backing the Bears. On top of that, having +14 available in my teaser on a line that was +7, deflated to +5.5 due to Smith being out, and then pushed down to +3.5 by the market, the situation was SCREAMING to take the Niners -3.5 on the over-reaction and I ignored that too.

So I'll just bow out with my 3.5/4.5u loss and wait for Thanksgiving. This is a pretty big weekend coming up for NFL/NCAAF games.

[suicidekings]

Teaser: Bears +14 / Under 44 (-120) x2
Prop: First score a CHI passing touchdown (+670) x0.75
Prop: First score a CHI rushing touchdown (+669) x0.75
Prop: M.Forte rushing yards over 70½ (+105) x1
Bears ML (+490) x1
Under 37 (-108) x5
2H Over 17 (+112) x5

11/19: 1-6 (-5.5u)
YTD: 66-65-1 (+28.69u)

[suicidekings]

Stanford -1 (-105) x5
Mississippi -1 (-105) x2

Penn State -3 (+100) x2

This team had to work through a lot this year, and in spite of it all, succeeded. With no bowl games on the horizon, they can only play for pride and finish the year strong in front of their home crowd. Wisconsin's year has been disappointing to a certain degree, but by default they're making it to the Big10 title game so even if that home loss to the Buckeyes last week stung a bit, I don't see them being sufficiently motivated to bring a winning effort to Happy Valley. I think the line will be irrelevant, so I'm taking the -3, rather than paying the premium for the -2.5

[suicidekings]

Stanford -1 (-105) x5
Mississippi -1 (-105) x2
Penn State -3 (+100) x2

Florida +8 (-105) x5

There's four teams that have been my primary money-makers this season in NCAAF: Texas A&M, Stanford, Ohio State, and Florida. All of them started out the year undervalued, and continued to be disrespected by linemakers in close matchups. All four of these teams are elite teams, and I think that the psychology of top tier teams is quite different than other teams. All four of these teams were out to prove themselves all season for varying reasons, and that doesn't always translate into covering big spreads against shit teams, with other factors also playing into the games such as injuries (Driskel, B.Miller), coaching changes (Urban Meyer), etc.

For Florida, the team was on track to make it to the NC game until they lost a one possession game against the Bulldogs, with Georgia putting up one of their best performances in a long time to take the win. Georgia had drives starting at the Florida 18, 26, and 27 yard lines off turnovers, which resulted in 10 Georgia points. Without that handicap, they managed ONE successful scoring drive in this game in the 4th quarter. Having ended the Gators hopes of an NC appearance, and with their last three games played against much weaker opponents, I think too much has been read into their failure to cover three large spreads since the Georgia game. The games were largely irrelevant as long as Florida got the wins, and I think coming out flat against Missouri to start the game can be forgiven. After the loss to Georgia, the only game that really mattered was the game against Florida State, and Will Muschamp knows it.

Florida State's resume just doesn't impress me. From the start of the year, their schedule was ranked 70th toughest, and with two of the tougher teams on ther schedule (Virginia Tech and South Florida) both proving to be much weaker than expected, that SOS ranking has dropped to 104th (via Footbal Outsiders). That's the weakest schedule played by any team in the top 30 FBS teams. In terms of BCS rankings, FSU does very well in the Harris and USA Today polls (6th & 5th, respectively), but the computer rankings have them ranging between 15th and not being ranked at all). By comparison, Florida has played the 35th toughest schedule, is ranked 5th & 6th in the polls, but the computers largely say they're the second best team in the country. So we have a situation where public opinion is saying FSU is better than they actually are, and the public saying Florida is not as good as the computers say they are. Florida State started the year ranked 6th while the Gators started at 23th.

The Seminoles have been overrated all year, going a poor 3-7 ATS (albeit largely against DD spreads), with those three covers coming as -28/-29/-27 favourites against teams that are 98th, 92nd, and 87th ranked in FEI ratings. With FSU being a largely known commodity to the sportsbooks this year (established QB & HC, few injuries, etc), it's hard to escape the conclusion that the Seminoles have been an underachiever. The difference between the Gators not covering big spreads down the stretch and FSU not covering them all year is that the Gators were 6-1 ATS going into their Georgia game, whereas FSU was 1-3 going into their NC State game. Even before the loss that derailed the Seminoles, they were not playing to the level they needed to challenge for the NC game, and whether or not you consider their preseason chances realistic, the sportsbooks were saying they were in contention.

I think this spread is a clear indication of the continued trend of this FSU team being overvalued. Florida is just far too good of a team to be getting 8 points in this in-state rivalry game. I think this Florida team has a solid chance to win the game outright, but I would have taken +4 comfortably if that line had been released. I think the likelihood of FSU covering -8 here is very low.

[suicidekings]

11/22

Texans / Lions Under 49.5 (-105) x2

[jinxpro13]

11/22

Texans / Lions Under 49.5 (-105) x2

with you on the under im getting it at 50.. did it drop for u?

[suicidekings]

with you on the under im getting it at 50.. did it drop for u?

I would have been good with U48.5 if that was all that was available. I meant to catch it at its peak, but forgot about it earlier today. Currently being juiced on the U50 or has already dropped at all my books. No big deal.

The early game on a holiday, with two good defensive teams playing. The Over just isn't an option on this one. These teams will just want to get the game over with.

[suicidekings]

11/22

Texans / Lions Under 49.5 (-105) x2

Redskins / Cowboys Over 47.5 (-106) x2

[Dexter]

on the same 2 totals....Happy Thanksgiving SK. Hang in there NBA - you'll get your run.

[2daBank]

against on the hou/det total..also played det tt ov 23, hou plays mainly man which stafford loves and joseph out so id expect det to get some things done offensively...on other side det d gonna struggle against a well balanced offense with schaub who will be content taking the underneath stuff...hate that im against you and few others i respect on this total but i hit over soon as it opened as i made it 51...like the dal over may join you on that....gl today and happy thanksgiving my friend...

[suicidekings]

on the same 2 totals....Happy Thanksgiving SK. Hang in there NBA - you'll get your run.

against on the hou/det total..also played det tt ov 23, hou plays mainly man which stafford loves and joseph out so id expect det to get some things done offensively...on other side det d gonna struggle against a well balanced offense with schaub who will be content taking the underneath stuff...hate that im against you and few others i respect on this total but i hit over soon as it opened as i made it 51...like the dal over may join you on that....gl today and happy thanksgiving my friend...

Thanks guys. Hope you and yours all have a great Thanksgiving as well. Cheers.

[suicidekings]

LIVE (7-0 Lions, 1Q 6:49)

Lions ML (-112) x2

[suicidekings]

11/25

Steelers -1 (-113) x3

[suicidekings]

LIVE (14-14, 2:11 2Q)

Under 55 (-108) x2

[suicidekings]

Texans / Lions Under 49.5 (-105) x2
Texans / Lions Under Under 55 (-108) x2
Lions ML (-112) x2
Redskins / Cowboys Over 47.5 (-106) x2

11/22: 1-3 (-4.4u)
YTD: 67-68-1 (+24.29u)

So glad I didn't play anything else today. Every instinct I had was wrong...

[suicidekings]

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