Toddorts NFL 2012-2013 Season Picks

[toddorts]

Well, been off SBR for a while. Had a bunch of other stuff going on, so took a break from sports betting for months. But now I'm ready to get back into the game with the NFL season starting up! Here is my record from last NFL season:

112-72-5
60.87%
+32.17 units

Hopefully this season can be even half as good!

The first pick of the season:

Cowboys @ Giants OVER 45 -110

[toddorts]

First night on Wednesday didn't go so hot. Didn't watch the game, because I was busy watching the DNC convention (sorry, can't miss a Bill Clinton speech). So, can't really comment on what happened. But here's the record after that first night, then I'll get to today's picks:

0-1-0
0%
-1.00 unit

[toddorts]

Ok, now for today's picks, and I've got a bunch:

COLTS @ Bears +10 -110
Colts @ Bears UNDER 43.5 -110
Eagles @ Browns UNDER 43 -110
Bills @ Jets OVER 38.5 -110
Bills @ JETS -3 -103
Patriots @ Titans OVER 48 -110
PATRIOTS @ Titans -5 -108
JAGUARS @ Vikings +3.5 -110
DOLPHINS @ Texans +13.5 -106
Rams @ Lions OVER 45.5 -110
Falcons @ Chiefs UNDER 42.5 -105
49ers @ Packers OVER 46.5 -110
49ers @ PACKERS -5.5 -108
Seahawks @ Cardinals UNDER 41 -110
Seahawks @ CARDINALS +2.5 +105
Steelers @ Broncos UNDER 46 -110
STEELERS @ Broncos +2 -108

[toddorts]

Had a great day going until the Steelers ruined it for me. Still not bad, though. Record for the day was 9-8, +0.40 units.

Season Record:

9-9-0
50%
-0.60 units

[toddorts]

Three picks for tonight's two games:

Bengals @ Ravens UNDER 42 -110
Chargers @ RAIDERS -1 -110
Chargers @ Raiders OVER 46.5 -110

[toddorts]

Forgot to post the record for Monday's games. It wasn't good at all, unfortunately, at 0-3, -3.00 units.

Season Record:
9-12-0
42.86%
-3.60 units

[toddorts]

Tonight's only pick:

Bears @ PACKERS -4.5 -110

[toddorts]

Not the most exciting game, but a good result at 1-0, +0.91 units.

Season Record:

10-12-0
45.45%
-2.69 units

[toddorts]

Time for week 2's picks. As always, I've got plenty of them, mostly on totals:

Bucs @ GIANTS -7 -110
Cardinals @ Patriots OVER 48 -105
Chiefs @ Bills UNDER 45 -110
Ravens @ Eagles OVER 46 -110
Ravens @ EAGLES -3 +EV
Raiders @ DOLPHINS +2.5 -103
Browns @ Bengals UNDER 39 -110
Texans @ Jaguars UNDER 41 -110
Cowboys @ Seahawks UNDER 42.5 -110
Cowboys @ SEAHAWKS +3 +105
Redskins @ Rams UNDER 43.5 -110
Jets @ Steelers UNDER 43 -110
JETS @ Steelers +5.5 -110
Titans @ Chargers OVER 43.5 -110
Titans @ CHARGERS -6.5 -110
Lions @ 49ers OVER 46 -110
LIONS @ 49ers +7 -110

[toddorts]

Up just barely for the day. Record was 8-7-2, +0.48 units.

Season Record:

18-19-2
48.65%
-2.21 units

[toddorts]

The only thing I have for tonight's game is a total. I lean towards the Falcons on a side at -3, but I'm not confident enough in it to make a play. Here's the pick:

Broncos @ Falcons UNDER 51.5 -110

[statdude]

GL Todd How are you making your picks?

[toddorts]

GL Todd How are you making your picks?

I use pure statistical analysis. No "gut" feelings or subjective factors. Teams that have huge changes that wildly affect the stats will be passed every time. For example, I didn't make any plays on games last year involving the Colts, because I felt the loss of Manning was too big of a factor to be able to reliably calculate odds. Betting on those games was more guess work than analysis, in my opinion.

[toddorts]

I was a bit worried towards the end of tonight's game, but it turned out well. Record was 1-0, +0.91 units.

Season Record:

19-19-2
50.00%
-1.30 units

[toddorts]

My picks for the early games:

Rams @ Bears UNDER 42.5 -110
Rams @ BEARS -7 -110
Bucs @ Cowboys UNDER 46 -110
Lions @ Titans UNDER 47 -110
Lions @ TITANS +3.5 -110
BENGALS @ Redskins +3 +EV
Jets @ Dolphins UNDER 41 -110
Jaguars @ Colts UNDER 43 -110

[toddorts]

And the later games:

Falcons @ Chargers UNDER 47 -110
Falcons @ CHARGERS -3 -110
Texans @ Broncos OVER 43 -110
Steelers @ Raiders UNDER 45 -110
Patriots @ Ravens OVER 48.5 -110
PATRIOTS @ Ravens +2.5 +102

[toddorts]

Great day, and back in the plus money for the year! Record today was 10-4, +5.29 units.

Season Record:

29-23-2
55.77%
+3.99 units

[toddorts]

Got a pick on both a side and total for tonight. The side is a close call. I would have preferred to go with -3, but everybody has shifted the line to -120 on that spread, and I'm not willing to pay that much juice on such a close call. The better bet is selling an extra half point on the spread to get the the payout up to +105, which 5Dimes is offering. Anyway, the picks:

Packers @ Seahawks OVER 45.5 -110
PACKERS @ Seahawks -3.5 +105

[toddorts]

Roger Goodell can burn in hell, and so can his SCAB officials! The Packers had that game absolutely stolen from them by incompetent SCAB refs. As a result, the record for the night was bad at 0-2, -2.00 units.

Season Record

29-25-2
53.70%
+1.99 units

[toddorts]

Last minute pick for tonight's game:

Browns @Ravens UNDER 44 -110

[toddorts]

Almost lost it, but ended the night well at 1-0, +0.91 units.

Season Record

30-25-2
54.54%
+2.90 units

[toddorts]

Less picks than usual for today's games, but more on sides and less on totals than usual. Should be an interesting day. Here are the picks:

Patriots @ Bills OVER 48.5 -110
Vikings @ Lions OVER 49 -110
Panthers @ FALCONS -7 -103
49ers @ Jets OVER 41 -106
49ers @ JETS +4.5 -110
Chargers @ Chiefs UNDER 44 -110
CHARGERS @ Chiefs -2 -108
TITANS @ Texans +13 -108
Seahawks @ Rams UNDER 39 -110
Dolphins @ Cardinals OVER 40.5 -105
DOLPHINS @ Cardinals +5 -110
RAIDERS @ Broncos +6.5 +100
Saints @ Packers OVER 53 -110
SAINTS @ Packers +8 -110

[toddorts]

The day started out ugly, but ended up as basically a wash. Just a slight loss at 7-7, -0.58 units.

Season Record:

37-32-2
53.62%
+2.32 units

[toddorts]

Hopefully tonight's play will make up for yesterday's small loss. My numbers say the Bears have a very good chance of winning this one outright by about a field goal, so giving them an extra 3 points makes this an easy call. Here's the pick:

BEARS @ Cowboys +3 +105

[toddorts]

The night turned out well! Thanks to da Bears, 1-0, +1.05 units for the night.

Season Record

38-32-2
54.29%
+3.37 units

[toddorts]

One pick for tonight's game:

Cardinals @ Rams UNDER 39.5 -105

[toddorts]

Another good night! Record tonight was 1-0, +0.95 units.


Season Record:

39-32-2
54.93%
+4.32 units

[toddorts]

Out on a cruise this week, and I'll be spending all day tomorrow ashore in Naussau, so I'm posting my picks the night prior. Here they are:

Falcons @ Redskins UNDER 51.5 -110
FALCONS @ Redskins -3 +100
Eagles @ Steelers OVER 43 -105
EAGLES @ Steelers +3 +110
Packers @ Colts OVER 48 -103
PACKERS @ Colts -6.5 -105
Browns @ Giants UNDER 44 -110
Browns @ GIANTS -8 -106
Titans @ Vikings OVER 44 -103
Seahawks @ Panthers UNDER 42.5 -107
Bears @ Jaguars UNDER 40.5 -103
BEARS @ Jaguars -5.5 -105
Broncos @ Patriots OVER 52 -105
Broncos @ PATRIOTS -6 -110
Bills @ 49ers UNDER 45 -103
BILLS @ 49ers +10 -110
Chargers @ Saints OVER 52.5 -105
Chargers @ SAINTS -3.5 -103

[toddorts]

Pretty good day! And not just because I'm enjoying a Caribbean cruise. Record for the day was 10-7-1, +2.64 units.

Season Record:

49-39-3
55.68%
+6.96 units

[toddorts]

Picks on both the total and the side for tonight's game:

Texans @ Jets OVER 40 -109
Texans @ JETS +9 -105

[toddorts]

Not a bad night. Record was 1-0-1, +0.95 units.

Season Record:

50-39-4
56.18%
+7.91 units

[pokerwhiz90]

wow you bet a lot of games but record looks solid thus far - will follow

[toddorts]

Two bets on tonight's game. My formulas put this at an incredibly close game, with both teams scoring in the 24-28 range. That makes the total an easy call at 43.5, and the spread an even easier call. I found a +7 at Sportsbook.com, which is my least favorite sportsbook, but I'm willing to use them when they have the best odds (which is rare). In this case, everyone else is offering the Titans at only +6 or +6.5, and as we all know, that extra half point is a very big deal in this sport when it gets you to +7. I still would have played the Titans at the lower spread, but when I can get +7 at -110 or better, that's what I'm going with, even with a less than preferred book. Anyway, here are the picks:

Steelers @ Titans OVER 43.5 -108
Steelers @ TITANS +7 -110

[statdude]

Get it

[toddorts]

Another good night! Record was 2-0, +1.84 units.

Season Record:

52-39-4
56.52%
+9.75 units