calmeat NFL Picks

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CIN at HOU
CIN Away PF = 23.5
CIN Away PA = 21.1
HOU Home PF = 22.1
HOU Home PA = 16.1
CIN 20th - Off, 7th - Def
HOU 13th - Off, 2nd Def
CIN pts per 100yds = 6.72pts
HOU D pts per 100yds = 6.08pts
HOU pts per 100yds = 6.4pts
CIN D pts per 100yds = 6.38pts

CIN Away Passing 208yds per game while HOU D allows 180yds per game.
HOU Home Passing 212yds per game while CIN D allows 228yds per game.

CIN Yards per Rush 3.6yds while HOU D allows 4 YPR
HOU YPR 4.7 while CIN D allows 3.7 YPR

Last Matchup HOU at CIN 12/11
HOU won 20-19
CIN Rushed for 101 yards and Passed for 184 yards
HOU Rushed for 144 yards and Passed for 268 yards

This game really could be a coin flip. Both are Starting Rookie Qbs. Both teams Passing attacks are about the same. I would give the edge to HOU in rushing. Both D's are solid with HOU a slight edge.

Either way this one shakes out safest bet on this game is a teaser since 3 pts will decide this game.

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DET at NOS
DET Away PF = 28.9
DET Away PA = 27.9
NOS Home PF = 41.4
NOS Home PA = 17.9
DET 5th - Off, 23rd - Def
NOS 1st - Off, 24th - Def
DET pts per 100yds = 7.48pts
NOS D pts per 100yds = 5.75pts
NOS pts per 100yds = 7.32pts
DET D pts per 100yds = 6.58pts

DET Away Passing 339yds per game while NOS D allows 284yds per game.
NOS Home Passing 327yds per game while DET D allows 268yds per game.

DET YPR 3.6yds while NOS D allows 4.7 YPR
NOS YPR 5.8yds while DET D allows 4.6 YPR

Last Matchup DET at NOS 12/4
NOS won 31-17
DET Rushed for 87 yards and Passed for 379 yards
NOS Rushed for 100 yards and Passed for 338 yards
Key was DET was penalized 11-107 while NOS 3-30

Have to Give NOS the edge. You know the huge dissapointment of last years SEA game is in thier mind. Although NOS wins im not sure if they will cover 10.5

Take Det +10.5 or tease NOS to -4.5

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ATL at NYG
ATL Away PF = 20.8
ATL Away PA = 22.8
NYG Home PF = 23.3
NYG Home PA = 23.1
ATL 10th - Off, 12th - Def
NYG 8th - Off, 27th - Def
ATL pts per 100yds = 6.67pts
NYG D pts per 100yds = 6.64pts
NYG pts per 100yds = 6.4pts
ATL D pts per 100yds = 6.56pts

ATL Away Passing 292yds per game while NYG D allows 244yds per game.
NYG Home Passing 296yds per game while ATL D allows 223yds per game.

ATL YPR 3.8yds while NYG D allows 4.2 YPR
NYG YPR 3.4yds while ATL D allows 4.4 YPR

ATL has lost 4-8 games away with wins vs SEA,DET,IND,CAR losses vs CHI,TB,HOU,NOS

Have to Give NYG the edge. If this game was in ATL i would give it to ATL but ATL is just not that good away. Weather is gonna be cold with a winter mix and those dome teams especially ATL who rely on thier skilled position speed will have a bit of trouble.

NYG SU or Tease NYG to +3

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PIT at DEN
PIT Away PF = 15.6
PIT Away PA = 18.4
DEN Home PF = 16.8
DEN Home PA = 23.8
PIT 12th - Off, 1st Def
DEN 23rd - Off, 20th Def
PIT pts per 100yds = 5.46pts
DEN D pts per 100yds = 6.81pts
DEN pts per 100yds = 6.1pts
PIT D pts per 100yds = 5.22pts

PIT Away Passing 254yds per game while DEN D allows 211yds per game.
DEN Home Passing 151yds per game while PIT D allows 180yds per game.

PIT YPR 3.8yds while DEN D allows 4.1 YPR
DEN YPR 5.0yds while PIT D allows 4.3 YPR

This one is the toughest game. I can see this being the SEA NOS game from last year however the one big difference is that PIT D is way better than NOS D last year. Since these teams have not played yet i look at the KC game last week as the best comparison. PITs O is better then KC but with a hobbled Ben ill say they are the same and PIT D is better and KC held DEN for 3 pts. DEN D will limit PIT O since Ben cant move great.
DEN +8.5, PIT ML, Under 34

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5-3 last week with the breakdown of games and
sheet =
NFL Wild Card Round
3-1 ML 75%, 1-3 ATS 25%, 3-1 O/U 75%

YTD
151-77 ML 66.23%, 126-92 ATS 57.80%, 128-93 O/U 57.92%
Consensus Picks 60-26 ATS 69.76%

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Round 2

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NOS vs SF
NOS Away PF on Grass = 25.8
NOS Away PA on Grass = 24.4
SF Home PF = 27.6
SF Home PA = 10.9
NOS 1st - Off, 24th - Def
SF 26th - Off, 4th - Def
NOS pts per 100yds = 7.32pts
SF D pts per 100yds = 4.65pts
SF pts per 100yds = 7.64pts
NOS D pts per 100yds = 5.75pts

NOS Away Passing 341yds per game while SF D allows 234yds per game.
SF Home Passing 195yds per game while NOS D allows 236yds per game.

NOS YPR 3.9yds while SF D allows 3.2 YPR
SF YPR 3.9yds while NOS D allows 5.1 YPR

NOS are 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS on grass this year.
NOS have not faced a D as good as SF and SF has not faced an O like NOS
This matchup is tough.
SF Rush O #8 vs NOS RUSH D #12
SF PASS O #29 vs NOS PASS D #29
NOS Rush O #6 vs SF RUSH D #1
NOS PASS O #1 vs SF PASS D #18
I think SF will limit NOS oppurtunities by controlling the clock and running the ball, I look for Vernon Davis to have a big game but this team reminds me of the jets the past years. Awesome D but ok O. NOS have to many weapons and see Sproles being the X factor in this one. Although SF has great Rush D Sproles will be used out of the backfield more for quick passes and that guy is just fast. For every TD Brees throws I can see SF kicking FGs. Edge NOS
NOS 31 at SF 27
NOS ML, NOS -3.5, OVER 47.5

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DEN vs NEP

DEN Away PF = 21.9
DEN Away PA = 25.0
NEP Home PF = 30.7
NEP Home PA = 19.2
DEN 23rd - Off, 20th Def
NEP 2nd - Off, 31- Def
DEN pts per 100yds = 6.10pts
NEP D pts per 100yds = 5.20pts
NEP pts per 100yds = 7.50pts
DEN D pts per 100yds = 6.81pts

DEN Away Passing 154yds per game while NEP D allows 274yds per game.
NEP Home Passing 305yds per game while DEN D allows 252yds per game.

DEN YPR 4.7yds while NEP D allows 4 YPR
NEP YPR 4.1yds while DEN D allows 4.2 YPR
Last matchup at DEN 12/18/11
NEP 41 DEN 23

Only reason DEN is still in this is because God decided to injure and give sickle cell to Pitt players. Healthy Pitt team and its a blowout. NEP D is not the same as PITT but will look as good as them this week. Although DEN will score on NEP, NEP will adjust based off of last weeks Denv game. A healthy NEP O is deadly with brady resting his arm there is no way DEN stays in this one. PITT O line was hurting and DEN didnt really pressure ROTH as much so i dont see them getting the pressure this week unless they do a lot of blitzing where brady will pick them apart. NEP win this one easily, look for TE Hernendez to have a monster game.
Den 20 at NEP 44
NEP ML, NEP -13.5, OVER 59

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HOU vs BAL

HOU Away PF = 25.5
HOU Away PA = 18.6
BAL Home PF = 27.4
BAL Home PA = 14.9
HOU 13th - Off, 2nd Def
BAL 15th - Off, 3rd - Def
HOU pts per 100yds = 6.40pts
BAL D pts per 100yds = 5.76pts
BAL pts per 100yds = 6.98pts
HOU D pts per 100yds = 6.08pts

HOU Away Passing 226yds per game while BAL D allows 171yds per game.
BAL Home Passing 215yds per game while HOU D allows 199yds per game.

HOU YPR 4.3yds while BAL D allows 3.7 YPR
BAL YPR 3.8yds while HOU D allows 4.1 YPR

Last matchup 10/16/11
BAL 29 HOU 14

Both D's are pretty much the same. BAL ranks right behind HOU in Rushing D and Passing D. The only Edge is for HOU with thier Rushing attack ranking #2 and BAL#10. This game will be a matter of what QB makes a mistake first and can BAL stop Foster. Both teams match up well and to me its a toss up but lean to BAL
HOU 24 at BAL 27
BAL ML, HOU +7.5, Over 35.5 - Could also Tease BAL down

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NYG vs GBP

NYG Away PF = 26.0
NYG Away PA = 26.9
GBP Home PF = 40.1
GBP Home PA = 21.4
NYG 8th - Off, 27th - Def
GBP 3rd - Off, 32nd - Def
NYG pts per 100yds = 6.40pts
GBP D pts per 100yds = 5.55pts
GBP pts per 100yds = 8.64pts
NYG D pts per 100yds = 6.64pts

NYG Away Passing 292yds per game while GBP D allows 305yds per game.
GBP Home Passing 319yds per game while NYG D allows 266yds per game.

NYG YPR 3.6yds while GBP D allows 4.8 YPR
GBP YPR 3.8yds while NYG D allows 4.7 YPR

Last matchup 12/4/11
GBP 38 at NYG 35

NYG have been playing some great football lately with thier D showing up big time. At the same time ATL on the road stinks so that game last week i will take it as a good showing by NYG D. WIll they be able to resemble that vs GB? Nah, GB has so many weapons its insane. NYG have a good O and D while GB has a good O but I see GB D stepping up big in this game and ELI shrinking to his old self.
NYG 24 at GBP 38
GBP ML, GBP -7.5, OVER 52.5

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Conf Championships lets get 'em

NFL Conference Championships
Red is injury concerns, Blue is Consensus picks, Purple is games i like in teases.

NFL Divisional Round
2-2 ML, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U

YTD
153-79 ML 65.95%, 128-94 ATS 57.66%, 131-94 O/U 58.22%
Consensus Picks 60-26 ATS 69.76%

teaser games
NEP, NYG, NEP/BAL Over 50

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Alright everyone last sheet of the NFL year. Good luck to all and if i help win you some money SBR pts are always welcomed.