calmeat NFL Picks

[calmeat]

So figured i would start a NFL thread to track my picks officially here. So far week 2 was ok week 3 was much better. Here is what i have had so far. THis is based on stats so i hope the more games the better the prediction. Of course injuries to key players and such will effect the true outcome but it looks like this could be a good tool to use on what "should happen"

Week 2 8-8 ML 8-7-1 ATS
BUF -4 ML W ATS L
GB -11 ML W ATS L
DET -9 ML W ATS W
CLE -1.5 ML W ATS W
MIN -1 ML L ATS L
CHI +5 ML L ATS L
NYJ -9 ML W ATS W
SEA +6 ML L ATS L
BAL -6 ML L ATS L
ARI +4.5 ML L ATS W
SF +3 ML L ATS Push
CIN +3 ML L ATS W
HOU -3 ML W ATS W
NE -6.5 ML W ATS W
PHI -2.5 ML L ATS W (took NYG)
NYG -7 ML W ATS W

Week 3 11-4 ML 11-3-1 ATS
CAR -3.5 ML W ATS W
DET -3 ML W ATS Push
SF +2.5 ML W ATS W
CLE +1.5 ML W ATS W
BUF +7 ML W ATS W
PHI -9 ML L ATS W (took NYG)
DEN +7 ML L ATS W
NO -3.5 ML W ATS L (took CHI)
NYJ -3.5 ML L ATS W (took OAK)
SD -16.5 ML W ATS W (took KC)
BAL -5.5 ML W ATS W
TB -1.5 ML W ATS L
GB -3.5 ML W ATS W
ARI -3 ML L ATS L
PIT -12 ML W ATS W (took IND)

and for tonight i have DAL ML and WAS +3.5

Overall so far I am 19-12 ML 19-10-2 ATS

[calmeat]

Update Week 3
DAL ML win
WAS ATS win

12-4 ML 12-3-1 ATS. Hope this stays as good as this, I may have to start putting some real money on it.

[calmeat]

So far here is what i have for week4
If there are any significant injuries for any team it can make the projected game outcome false. Keep in mind other factors before placing any bets. I have only tracked this for 2 weeks so i am not totally trusting it yet. I will probably throw a bunch of the picks into a teaser to be safe. PHI and TEN game im not sure about. I dont see how philly doesnt win that game and with Tenn not sure how they will be with britt out. If anyone has any idea on how to deal with injuries in capping please let me know. THanks

[Alki]

Good Luck as always Cal.
Any MLB playoffs? Been checking your MLB thread but nothing showing.
Thanks.

[calmeat]

Alki,
Sorry not sure if ill be doing any MLB yet i havent felt real good about any of the games except first phils game but juice was too high for me.

[calmeat]

So far this week 9-5 ATS and 11-3 on the ML

Past 2 weeks 21-8-1 ATS and 23-7 on the ML so far.

[Alki]

Pretty impressive Cal. I can't be playing the entire card so I was wondering if there was any way to filter some out?
Thanks.

[calmeat]

Yeah that is the next step is to figure out a way to weigh them. I did notice for ATS if you did a 6 pt tease there would be 4 losses past 2 weeks at 7pts 2 losses and 10 pts 1 loss. I also added O/U but i still need to analyze that. That SF/PHI game was almost predicted perfectly.

Projected 26-24 SF Real score was 24-23 SF.

[calmeat]

So for the sheet starting week 3 (discounting weeks 1-2 for lack of stats)

Record (Week 3-EOS)
ML 25w-7L 78.13%
ATS 22w-9L-1 70.97%
O/U 18w-14L

Of the 9 ATS losses and the push if the games were teased at 7 pts there would only be 2 losses and at 10pts only 1 loss.
For O/U losses if they were teased by 6 pts there would be 7 losses. The other 7 even at 10pts would still be losses.

[fitguy67]

Cal, I for one would like if you just continued posting the raw plays...with a great W% like u'v got going so far, posting/evaluating them en masse for at least the rest of the season let's the system start to find it's true level...prematurely "filtering" will
1. interfere with the evaluation, and
2. Murphy loves to apply his law to filters...often filtering out more winners than losers

If i've got a large deck of bet-cards (all generated objectively by the same system) with a nice +EV win%, rather than filter them down to a few to bet big...i'd rather bet'em all smaller...why? cuz 16 $20 bets week after week will have the same EV as a "filtered" card of 4 bets at $80 each...but the former will have considerably less variance (cuz it'll behave more like a "mutual fund" rather than a portfolio of single-stocks)

At the early stages of system dev, when u'v got something promising, as you obviously have here...it's important to "not get fancy"...keep laying it out and objectively evaluating. Keep monitoring it "warts and all" thruout the remainder of the season. Rather than getting fascinated with filters (which will whiplash from week to week in effectiveness...an adjustment to last week's results will sting you in the ass this week=filter out more losers than winners)...a far more useful endeavour would be to BACK TEST your current rule set....many seasons and hundreds of weeks will show u what "rule changes" (ie. prospective filters) have +EV.

So please keep letting the whole raw output show...you can tag some of em with any experimental designations if you want (most obviously a system-generated weighting (including the option of a "zero" weight) ...but keep the whole raw set of bets on display...I for one would rather bet small on lots of good plays, rather than go heavy on cherry-picks that tempt Murphy to make me whack myself Homer-Simpson style ("doh!") when the results come in.

Whatever, dude, u seem to really have the knack for system dev...as far as the actual betting, I'd avoid getting fancy and bet em all, bet em small and flat. Keep all temptations to differentially "weight" in hypothetical "what if?" mode until at least the end of the season.

[fitguy67]

BTW, the idea of combining the raw output into teasers IS both really cool and potentially really profitable...but i'd still recommend you keep "what if?"ing it until at least the end of this season...it'll help you develop it without the distracting "pleasure/pain" of individual weeks...

u'v got something great here, Cal...don't micro-manage it until u'v got lots more results (forward to the end of this season and perhaps even more usefully, backwards as many seasons as u can get data for...)...

I'll take the "mutual fund" approach to your huge weekly slate,meaning...I'll bet STRAIGHT and I'll bet ALL, SMALL, and FLAT...
cuz what u'v got seems "investment grade" to me

[calmeat]

Fit, Thanks for the suggestions and completely agree with you. I rather post the raw data as well because i dont want to only pick certain games cause i know only that game would lose and that sort of thing, plus for anyone who tails i feel bad so dont really like doing that as much. And like you said i may just note what games I like the best and certain plays im doing. But yes this is early and dont have the time to do back test although that would be awesome to find out how it would have done. Just really hoping it stays true.

Thanks again for your suggestions and your help with all of this.

[calmeat]

OK Here is Week 5

[RAVENSFAN]

why u take down the chart? i liked that for some teasers

[calmeat]

ah not sure why its not showing now. Gotta fix it.

Hopefully that helps.

Hey anyone following if this helps you with some bets i would really appreciate some SBR pts need to get the wife something so she stops complaining about me always doing this stuff.

[calmeat]

Just wanted to post my plays so far
13 to win 10
2tm 7pt Tease
GB +1
Buf +10

2.16 to win 5.71
2tmParlay
Buf +2.5
CIN +2.5

3 to win 12.75
8tm 10.5 teaser
ARI +11.5
BUF +11.5
OAK +17.5
CIN +11.5
TEN +15.5
NYG -.5
NYJ +21
GB +3.5

[loopydude11]

very impressive the last couple weeks, thanks for posting the chart i'm gonna work some teasers with it too

[calmeat]

just put in with local book
$25 3tm 10pt tease
CIN +7.5
TEN +13
NYG Even

[calmeat]

Not a good week for the sheet
5-7 ATS, 8-4 ML

teased at 6 pts sheet would be 9-3

[calmeat]

Week 4 record not what i was hoping
9w-4L ML
6w-7L ATS
5w-8L O/U

4 losses ATS would be winners if teased at 6pts

[calmeat]

here we go lets hope its better than last week

[morri1962]

If green are your picks I see them all winning

GL

[calmeat]

The ones in green are the ones i liked right away. Hopefully i will still like them as lines change.

[fitguy67]

bol, as always, cal

[calmeat]

So..
Week 6 8w-5L ML, 5w-6L-2p ATS, 8-5 O/U
Overall 42-16 ML, 33-22-3 ATS, 31-27 O/U

Breakdown:
2 Pushes could be wins depending on when you got the lines. Oakland for me was a win since i got them at -5.5 but my sheet on here said 7 so counted as a push.
MIN and HOU picks were the only ones that i disagreed with. HOU with its injuries and MIN just being bad vs CHI who was super pissed and hungry for win after DET loss.

Of the 6 losses and 2 pushes
6pt tease would yield 4 wins (IND, BUF, OAK, NEP)
10pt would yield those 4 plus HOU
NOS, CAR, MIN woudl be losses even after 10pts.

I think what i will do now is post the sheet but then as well note the picks i dont agree with. Hope this all helps someone

[calmeat]

[IMG][/IMG]

Games with red are games where injuries can affect them. The ones with green are the games where vegas and the sheet agree. Ill post my plays later

[calmeat]

Man NFL is crazy and so am i for betting games i should know better not to.

Week 7 8w-5L ML, 6-6-1 ATS, 6-6 O/U
OverAll 50-21 ML, 39-28 ATS, 37-33 O/U

6 pt tease 2 of 7 games (1 push) would win ATS
10pt tease 3 of 7 would win ATS

[calmeat]

WASH vs BUF
WAS is hurting right now with Helu and Torain in backfield, Santana Moss out, O line and D all banged up, Oh and John Beck is the QB. BUF is still pretty healthy and should be good to go, BUF 27-14

CLE vs SF
SF is rolling right now they finally got the running game going and D is top notch.CLE struggled vs SEA with whitehurst at QB and lynch on the bench. SF is in a groove and will win this one. SF 24-10

MIN vs CAR
I have a feeling as long as all MIN players are healthy that they have a real good chance of winning the game outright. With ponder giving them some offense and AP being AP car D will have a tough time with them. On the other hand Vikings D will be putting a lot of pressure on Cam so i could see this one being real close.

MIA vs NYG
Looks like NYG D will get its players back, Jacobs will be back. Matt Moore has bruised ribs and MIA just signed losman as a backup QB since rosenfels just got put onto IR. NYG will be all over the place in this one 31-17 NYG.

[NHL_freak]

Not bad ATS at all !Keep it up

[calmeat]

OK def a better week

Week 8 8w-5L ML, 8-5 ATS, 9-4 O/U
OverAll 58-26 ML, 47-33 ATS, 46-37 O/U

6 pt tease All 5 losses would still lose
10pt tease 2 of 5 would win ATS

[calmeat]

Still waiting on the STL line before i post the sheet this week. Games i like right now to tease
NOS -8
HOU -11
SF -3

ATS
GBP -5.5

[calmeat]

Dont feel like waiting for ARI line you can guess what the ATS pick is based on projected pick and vegas line.
Green ones are the ones i like best, Games with red on the left have an injury that can cause the game to go different then what is expected.

[calmeat]

So here is my take on them
Love
NOS
HOU
SF

Like
BUF
MIA
CIN

Lean
STL (Kolb not playing really hurts ARI)
NEP
GBP
PHI

[calmeat]

here are my plays for today
5 to win 11.75
6tm 10.5pt T
ATL +2.5
NOS +1.5
HOU -1.5
SF +7.5
DAL -2.5
NYG +20.5


20 to win 25.40
3tm 7.5pt T
NOS -2
HOU -5
SF +4.5

33 to win 30
3tm 10pt T
NOS 1.5
HOU -1
SF +6

2.82 to win 36.91
4tm Par
Buf -1
MIA +4
SF -3.5
CIN -5.5

[calmeat]

Yes finally a good day so far 10-2 ATS and NOS HOU and SF all covered!!!!!!!!!