I like where your heads @ BJ. I lean BUF, but just couldn't make the play. Think the line's set @ 5.5, not 7 so the public jumps on CIN and gets buried when they win by 3 or 4.
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My fun parlay of the week to hit it big:
7 Teamer
Bills +215
Jets -320
Cowboys -275
Jags -125
Colts +175
Rams +150
Giants +160
$25 to win $4,509Comment -
So hard to pull the trigger on this Jets game. The line is so inflated towards the Jets but they should cover the number. Still thinking about it.Comment -
NFL Week 11: 2-4 (-2.50x)
2010 NFL Season: 67-57 (+10.90x)
Turkey Day Plays
Well looking to rebound from a losing week. Was actually on a nice run in NFL. Started - a bunch of units now up over 10. Hoping to get to 30 by playoffs.
Lions +7 -120 (3x)
Very good spot to back the Lions here. Put yourself in New England's shoes. You come off of huge national games in Pittsburgh and then win an emotional game vs rival Indianapolis. Now you have to fly to Detroit, on Thanksgiving and play the lowly Lions before coming home and playing the rival Jets on a Monday night. Which game would you just say "**** it, I don't really need to be here". Of course they won't sit there and throw the game but you ever heard the saying practice how you play? Well aside from not much practice you had to leave your family or take them with you to spend Thanksgiving away from home and play an early game 88 hours after an emotional win. Now next week you have the Jets on full rest. You think these guys practiced and really are excited about this game? Of course anyone backing the Lions solely for this reason is asking to lose money but it does serve a solid point. Onto the actual game...
The Patriots have been getting beaten up in the past few games through the air. They just aren't getting pressure consistently. One thing the Lions can do is create big plays, especially at home, through the air. With little to no ground attack I don't think the Patriots are too excited to make an attempt at covering Calvin Johnson and co. The Lions are that gritty team at home, they don't throw in the towel and are 4-0 ATS. Even if they love coming in the back door. Shaun Hill is definitely capable to say the very least. They covered similar numbers against the Eagles and Jets who look like two of the best teams in the league right now. Sure, if they are ahead late I am sure Brady will end up taking that lead away in typical Lion choke fashion, but hey, we only have to cover.
As for the Pats I have a strange feeling that with this new found running game with BJG-Ellis and Danny Woodhead Billy B will have one of those games where he tries to bore you to sleep. I am expecting a lot of runs early by the Pats. I think he just wants to end this game as quick as possible, rest up his guys, and focus on the Jets. The Lions are averaging 30+ points per game at home. I wouldn't expect that much but I just don't see how the Patriots come out and decide to dominate this game start to finish. Not to mention the line has been moving down despite the public coming in on NE.Comment -
Saints/Cowboys o50 (2x)
Both offenses have been clicking and both defenses are pretty exploitable. You know the passing attack should have success against the Cowboys and expect a few flags on Malcolm Jenkins if he plays. Jenkins earned his name by holding, tugging, pulling, and pushing receivers before the ball gets there. The problem for the Cowboys is they don't go too deep in the defensive backfield. That is not too good when you have 5 receiving threats coming at you that are all in sync with their quarterback.
As for the Cowboys offense it looks to me like it is back in Dallas. No, not the wins, not the quarterback, not the good team, but the fun. They look like they are having fun. Watching Cowboys games during the Wade Phillips era in 2010 was painful. I have never seen a football team so blatantly disrespect it's head coach by giving up on him. However, it was for the best because since he left this offense is fun and scoring points. Kitna has been throwing the ball well and I think Jason Garrett is really motivated to put up the big numbers on offense to keep his job next year (even though he would have to **** up pretty good for it not to be). I could easily see this game playing into the 60's.Comment -
Jets/Bengals u43 (1x)Comment -
Falcons -1 (3x)
Seahawks +2 (3x)
Broncos o44 (2x)
Bears +3 (2x)
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BOL man !!!
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3-1 (+3.70x)Comment -
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what u like for 2night bj?Comment -
NFL Season: 71-60 (+12.40x)
Very happy where I am at right now. Feel like I have a good grip on all these teams and where they are headed. After a very rough start to the season I am pleased to be up my 12 units and feel like I can finally start to rip the books with some bigger plays. Good luck to all.Comment -
Eagles -5 (1H) (1x)Comment -
72-60 (+13.60x)Comment -
Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) O/U 44.5
How interesting are the Bills this year? Say all you want about the 2-9 record but they have played better then a lot of teams this year. The emergence of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Steve Johnson, and now more recently the reemergence of Fred Jackson has made this team look like a future contender in the AFC East. They have now lost to four potential playoff teams by a field goal after last weeks loss to the Steelers. That loss goes along with field goal losses to the Bears, Ravens and Chiefs. Not to mention they had New England looking very vulnerable earlier this year. Minnesota has been awful this year, look at their four wins. They have come against the Redskins, Cardinals, Cowboys, and Lions. All of whom have played a lot worse then the Bills this year. The main concern for this Buffalo defense this year has been finding a way to stop the run. They have been gashed for over 165 yards per game on the ground and although it won't get easier with Adrian Peterson across the line of scrimmage you have to wonder just how healthy AP actually is. Last week he sprained his ankle just six carries into the game and couldn't return, with the season over it has me thinking just how much AP will be actually run come Sunday. The Vikings may give him a very soft work load to try to protect their star running back, a route that makes a lot of sense given the circumstances. The side is going down as a no play for me but I would lean to the Bills getting a few points too many here in this spot. My play on this game is actually going to be on the under of 44.5. Both defenses have shown their grit in recent weeks. Aside from that crazy shit-tastic Bengals/Bills game this Bills defense has given up 16.5 points per game over their last four games against opponents not hailing from Cincinnati. Minnesota has seen their last three games going under even though before that they had a nice streak of overs. That streak is kind of misleading because those games were sneaking over by a couple points each time. Minnesota has played to an average total of 38 this year.
Vikings/Bills u44.5 (1x)Comment -
Not bad
Great write upsComment -
Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins (-5) O/U 43
We have an official Jake Delhomme alert in effect. Yea, that guy who somehow led the Panthers to the Super Bowl and has been a turnover machine since. He will be under center today. Which side do you think that works out better for? The quarterback position hasn't been much better on the Miami side in recent weeks but I still believe Chad Henne brings to the table a better chance to win then anyone on the Miami roster and a lot of guys currently starting elsewhere. Miami actually has some hope on the season, they sit with just five losses right now but the way people are talking about them you would think they are sitting at 3-8. I know people think it is fun to back the Browns because they beat the Saints, Patriots, and had the Jets on the ropes but three games don't define a team. I'm expecting a good back and forth game, I am not going to play it though. There are better games on the board. But I would take the Dolphins and the under if I had to pick.Comment -
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3) O/U 43.5
Really liking the Titans in this one. They have owned the series recently against the Jags winning 6 of the last 8 meetings. It looks like Kerry Collins will be under center but no matter who is I think one thing is for certain, we will see a heavy dose of Chris Johnson. Johnson has killed the Jaguars on occasions in the past. Last year he went for 228 yards on 24 carries against them. I love the fact this line is only 3 and everyone is on the Jaguars bandwagon. Jags have given up over 135 rushing yards per game on the road this year and if CJ gets going it is going to be a long day. Think this Tennessee defense is underrated and I really like this game a lot. Would lean to the under.
Titans -3 (3x)Comment -
Tired and going to the Giants game, no more write ups. Will get on them earlier next week. Here is the rest of the card...
Broncos/Chiefs u48.5 (1x)
Packers -9 (2x)
Bengals/Saints o43.5 (2x)
Bucs +3 (1x)
Seahawks -5 (1x)
Rams -3 (2x)
Steelers +3 (1x)Comment -
The pics seem very solid as usual BJ. I'm a little curious about the Broncos Chiefs though as both teams usually kill each other. Maybe when you get up you can give me a little insight? No need for a full write up
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GL 2day
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Thanks for the fadesComment -
Quiet now aren't we?Comment -
Good job BJ!! Keep up the work. Missed you the last couple of days in the NCAA hoops thread..Comment -
I think Pitt is gonna hit too, solid jobComment -
Another solid week for my nephew
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On the week now 7-3 (+4.50x)
On the season now 78-63 (+17.10x)
Should be a great game. Jets +4 (1x)/Under 44.5 (1x)Comment -
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!
We should all be embarrassed
a 17 year old High School kid is making us all look bad
Shame on usComment -
Learned it all from my uncle. Rubberband plays will be out for bowl season.
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Love the titleComment
Or lose outright. I had this game capped at Cincy -1 but I think the Bills win.
