NFL Public Fade Tracking Thread of Dogs 52% or Higher

[The-Diesel]

O.K. I have done some research. I used the vegasinsider website to look at this year's NFL season so far.
I looked at the closing line's betting percentages for underdogs against the point spread and against the money line BET AS THE POINT SPREAD at 52% or higher. The results are very interesting:


TOP NUMBER is the record for point spread underdog percentages at 52% or higher
BOTTOM NUMBER is the record for the money line underdog percentages BET AS THE POINT SPREAD at 52% or higher.


WEEK 1
2 - 1 -1
4 - 2 -1

WEEK 2
1 -0
5 -1 -1

WEEK 3
3 -1
5 -2

WEEK 4
1 -0
4 - 2

WEEK 5
1 - 1
5 -3

ALL WEEKS
8 - 3 -1 72%
23 - 10 - 2 69%


It has been an interesting find. I just might start betting this way.

It's working pretty good Keel. I have already learn some good stuff on the pros. We are going to ride the public dogs of 52% or higher on the Sunday afternoon games but it's a whole different story on the Sunday night and Mondy night games. No system is perfect but I do think we can show a profit.

[4TH AND STUPID]

keel44,

what you are saying is ...

the top number was the record for betting on SPREAD UNDERDOGS who got 52% or more of public support on the pointspread?


and the bottom number was the record for betting the pointspread on ML UNDERDOGS who got 52% or more of public support on the ML ??

[keel44]

keel44,

what you are saying is ...

the top number was the record for betting on SPREAD UNDERDOGS who got 52% or more of public support on the pointspread?


and the bottom number was the record for betting the pointspread on ML UNDERDOGS who got 52% or more of public support on the ML ??

Yes sir. I hope everyone understands what I am trying to say.

[4TH AND STUPID]

the plays for this weekend in NFL according to keel44's system are:


BET OF THE FOLLOWING TEAMS SPREAD:

KANSAS CITY (CRITERIA 1 AND 2)
BALTIMORE (CRITERIA 1 AND 2)
ATLANTA (CRITERIA 1 AND 2)
MIAMI (CRITERIA 1 AND 2)
OAKLAND (CRITERIA 1 AND 2)
DETROIT (CRITERIA 2)

[The-Diesel]

I will post my plays around 12:15 EST tomorrow morning.

[The-Diesel]

Sunday, 10/17/10 plays

After some research over the last two weeks I've learned a few things.
1. Ride the public dogs of 52% or higher on the 1:00 and 4:00 Sunday games during regular season
2. Fade the public dogs of 52% or higher on Sunday and Monday Nights.

No system is full proof but I hope it helps you along with your capping skills to pin point that money making game your looking for.

We will start tracking this from week 6 until the end of the season.

Here's the plays I have for the day

GL everyone

1 unit
58% Baltimore +2.5 (+108)
69% Atlanta +1.5 (-105)
54% Miami +3 (-105)
58% Oakland +7 (-105)

[TakeIt]

Sunday, 10/17/10 plays

After some research over the last two weeks I've learned a few things.

i'm sorry to have to ask this, but how on earth does two weeks qualify as research?

[The-Diesel]

i'm sorry to have to ask this, but how on earth does two weeks qualify as research?

LOL

I've been doing reseach for two weeks. I didn't say how far I went back. I just don't have that kind of time to explain. I sorry if you misunderstood.

BOL today

[hugh4310]

Did Atlanta go out partying last night or what!

[The-Diesel]

Did Atlanta go out partying last night or what!

They are looking like crap right now. Baltmore and Miami are trying to hold there own.

[TakeIt]

LOL

I've been doing reseach for two weeks. I didn't say how far I went back. I just don't have that kind of time to explain. I sorry if you misunderstood.

BOL today

you had me worried there for a minute.

[The-Diesel]

Sunday, 10/17/10 plays

After some research over the last two weeks I've learned a few things.
1. Ride the public dogs of 52% or higher on the 1:00 and 4:00 Sunday games during regular season
2. Fade the public dogs of 52% or higher on Sunday and Monday Nights.

No system is full proof but I hope it helps you along with your capping skills to pin point that money making game your looking for.

We will start tracking this from week 6 until the end of the season.

Here's the plays I have for the day

GL everyone

1 unit
58% Baltimore +2.5 (+108)
69% Atlanta +1.5 (-105)
54% Miami +3 (-105)
58% Oakland +7 (-105)

Sunday, 10/17/10 Resuts

Not the day I was looking for guys. Going to stick with this and see what happens next weekend.


1 unit
58% Baltimore +2.5 (+108)..............Lost
69% Atlanta +1.5 (-105).................Lost
54% Miami +3 (-105)......................Won
58% Oakland +7 (-105)..................Lost

System Record
1-3
25%
-2.10 units

[chizzy]

i agree. any system puts out a day like this every now and then. im keeping with it too. same with nhl. thanks for doing this.

[CarloTwoGuns]

interesting

[The-Diesel]

i agree. any system puts out a day like this every now and then. im keeping with it too. same with nhl. thanks for doing this.

We'll see what happens chizzy.

[newguy]

Throwing you a couple of points for your hard work - but question. Had you stuck with fading the public, like you did two weeks ago, you would have gone 3-1 this week right?

I might be wrong about this - but it always seems to me that Vegas makes the beginning of the season a little easier to hit - maybe its on purpose (to sucker new players in) or maybe its just a function of a ton of square betting early that doesn't do research. Either way, I would think (and we can see what happens) - but I would think that as we go through the season, the public will lose more than they will win.......lets see what happens - maybe its a system where you play with public first 4 weeks and against after that or something - we will see what happens - just some food for thought.

I love the college system - lets keep it up!!

[The-Diesel]

Throwing you a couple of points for your hard work - but question. Had you stuck with fading the public, like you did two weeks ago, you would have gone 3-1 this week right?

I might be wrong about this - but it always seems to me that Vegas makes the beginning of the season a little easier to hit - maybe its on purpose (to sucker new players in) or maybe its just a function of a ton of square betting early that doesn't do research. Either way, I would think (and we can see what happens) - but I would think that as we go through the season, the public will lose more than they will win.......lets see what happens - maybe its a system where you play with public first 4 weeks and against after that or something - we will see what happens - just some food for thought.

I love the college system - lets keep it up!!

I would have went 3-1 if I faded Sunday but 0-4 the 2 weeks before that. I will ride them one more time this week to see what happens.

[ebbearsfb1]

so the orginal trend was 3-1.... new one 1-3.... gonna take bout half way point of season to see what works

[The-Diesel]

I went back and did some research from last year guys and found out that fading the public dog of games 52% and greater worked great onThursday, Sunday and Monday night games and also including the playoffs. But on Sunday day games the system was hitting around 50% all year. I will still post against the public dog plays on Sunday but use your capping skills to go along with what I have to get the game you want to bet on. I'm going to hit the night games hard if they fall in my system.

I will do the same research on the NBA this weeknd and see what I come up with before the season starts.

[thefuture]

Just do what I do and everybody wins

[The-Diesel]

Could have a possible big play building on Dallas -3 Sunday Night. Still early

[The-Diesel]

Could have a possible big play building on Dallas -3 Sunday Night. Still early

Possible Big plays building on both Sunday and Monday Night

G.B. -3 Sunday Night
Dallas -3 Monday

Still early

[bhoward13]

Diesel - I don't want to hijack your thread, but thought this might add value. Recently I've been following NFL teams coming off bye weeks and found that they are 5-1 ATS when playing at 1:00PM.

For week 6, using your system and the bye week as a filter:
Baltimore would have been a no play, since NE had bye
Miami would have been a play and had outright road win against GB
1-0 when with your system and bye filter

Furthermore, all teams coming off bye with 1pm game went 4-0 (MIA, NE, PIT, SEA) in Week 6.

I would be interested to see how this week's teams coming off bye week playing 1:00PM games do when they line up with your system. They are BUF +13, CAR +3, and CIN +3.5.
It's still early, but it looks like CIN is the only one of these 3 that has a chance for public to side with the dog.

I would also note the RLM on BUF +13 even though 70% of the money is on BAL.
GL this week.

[GunShard]

Purposely choosing the team the public hates the most usually does help since the sharps are adjusting to the public.

Buffalo is rank #32 which is the worst NFL team this season and even last season. I would avoid all games involving Buffalo.

[The-Diesel]

Diesel - I don't want to hijack your thread, but thought this might add value. Recently I've been following NFL teams coming off bye weeks and found that they are 5-1 ATS when playing at 1:00PM.

For week 6, using your system and the bye week as a filter:
Baltimore would have been a no play, since NE had bye
Miami would have been a play and had outright road win against GB
1-0 when with your system and bye filter

Furthermore, all teams coming off bye with 1pm game went 4-0 (MIA, NE, PIT, SEA) in Week 6.

I would be interested to see how this week's teams coming off bye week playing 1:00PM games do when they line up with your system. They are BUF +13, CAR +3, and CIN +3.5.
It's still early, but it looks like CIN is the only one of these 3 that has a chance for public to side with the dog.

I would also note the RLM on BUF +13 even though 70% of the money is on BAL.
GL this week.

No problem bhoward.
Good information

[bhoward13]

Purposely choosing the team the public hates the most usually does help since the sharps are adjusting to the public.

Buffalo is rank #32 which is the worst NFL team this season and even last season. I would avoid all games involving Buffalo.

Gunshard - I couldn't agree with you more, but wanted to point out RLM on the worst team in the NFL. I wouldn't touch this game with a 10 ft pole, but thought the movement was odd enough to point out.

[Zubi]

BH like your info. This week though I think you could give Buf & Car. a month off and they couldn't cover.

[bhoward13]

BH like your info. This week though I think you could give Buf & Car. a month off and they couldn't cover.

haha....very true. They had a bye and SF will feel like they are playing 10AM game. If there was ever a spot for CAR to win one, this is it. If they lose, they should refund money to everyone unfortunate enough to buy season tickets.

[The-Diesel]

Denver could be seting up for a nice play also tomorrow.

[The-Diesel]

Sunday, 10/24/10 Plays

Well guys had a very nice day in college yesterday. The NFL is not as easy to me, but lets see what we can do to come up with some winners today so we can in. I'm going to post the dog favorites today as they seem to be doing pretty good on 1 and 4 oclock Sunday games. I'm also going to post the RLM games to see what we have to work with.
GL with your bets today and enjoy the games.

High lighted in blue are my plays guys.

We will visit the Sunday night game closer to game time.

Note: All nunbers are from pregame.

Public dog favorites
52% Philly +3 (-119)
62% Washington (+3 (-104)
75% N.E. +3 (-130)
61% Oakland +7 (-104)

RLM games

.5 point line movement
35% Cinny +3.5 (-102)
25% Buffalo +12.5 (-110)
30% Carolina +3 (-130)

1 point line movement
36% Clevland +12.5 (-110)

My personal plays today
1 unit
Philly +3
Cinny +3.5
Buffalo +12.5

[bhoward13]

Looks good. I like that the 3 RLM plays are coming off bye week.

Good luck

[The-Diesel]

Sunday, 10/24/10 Plays

Well guys had a very nice day in college yesterday. The NFL is not as easy to me, but lets see what we can do to come up with some winners today so we can in. I'm going to post the dog favorites today as they seem to be doing pretty good on 1 and 4 oclock Sunday games. I'm also going to post the RLM games to see what we have to work with.
GL with your bets today and enjoy the games.

High lighted in blue are my plays guys.

We will visit the Sunday night game closer to game time.

Note: All nunbers are from pregame.

Public dog favorites
52% Philly +3 (-119)
62% Washington (+3 (-104)
75% N.E. +3 (-130)
61% Oakland +7 (-104)

RLM games

.5 point line movement
35% Cinny +3.5 (-102)
25% Buffalo +12.5 (-110)
30% Carolina +3 (-130)

1 point line movement
36% Clevland +12.5 (-110)

My personal plays today
1 unit
Philly +3
Cinny +3.5
Buffalo +12.5

Update so far

Should of wagered all my plays on the board today and made a killing. But didn't and went 1-2 on the day games.

Looking real hard at G.B. right now. The public is on a Minny (the dog) and that a good sign for all GB backers. Will wait closer to gametime.

Public dog favorites
52% Philly +3 (-119)....................Lost
62% Washington (+3 (-104)..........Won
75% N.E. +3 (-130).....................Pending
61% Oakland +7 (-104)................Pending

RLM games

.5 point line movement
35% Cinny +3.5 (-102)..............Lost
25% Buffalo +12.5 (-110)..........Won
30% Carolina +3 (-130).............Won

1 point line movement
36% Clevland +12.5 (-110).........Won

My personal plays today

1 unit
Philly +3.................Lost
Cinny +3.5..............Lost
Buffalo +12.5...........Won

[Godsmack]

lets hit with the pack! we are flying high here in cheese land after the HUGE badger win

[jakeandba]

D:

may need some help with summing up what is considered a play vs not for nfl. From what I can tell play the public dogs of 52% or higher during the sunday games.....if the games are sunday night, MNF, and thurs, bet against these public dogs....

For ur college thread to bet against the pub dogs of 52% or higher.....is this all correct?

[The-Diesel]

D:

may need some help with summing up what is considered a play vs not for nfl. From what I can tell play the public dogs of 52% or higher during the sunday games.....if the games are sunday night, MNF, and thurs, bet against these public dogs....

For ur college thread to bet against the pub dogs of 52% or higher.....is this all correct?

That's correct