Pro-Computer Gambler 2010-2011 LOCK AND LOAD

A's Fan · 10-08-10, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by therber2

NFL we're still working on. There is one play that looks real solid, and no one is going to understand.

Hmm is that like cleveland browns +3 vs atlanta?

therber2 · 10-08-10, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by A's Fan

Hmm is that like cleveland browns +3 vs atlanta?

Lol. No. I shouldn't have worded it that way. The picks are all very logical..

They'll be out tomorrow fellas.

Sweatyguido · 10-08-10, 08:55 PM

Originally posted by Sweatyguido

what u guys think about the unders in NL games today? Cin/Phi under 7.5 Atl/SF under 6.5 think i'll play them both small, and stick w/ year of the pitcher trend

damn just got home and saw 6 unearned runs in the phillies game, thats an under killer. cant help to think i was still on the right side. cant really account for 6 unearned runs in a game. thats unbelieveable.

hitman2010 · 10-08-10, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by A's Fan

Hmm is that like cleveland browns +3 vs atlanta?

ATL with better record and stronger than Cleveland now.

JMobile · 10-09-10, 06:39 AM

Originally posted by therber2

**** Top PLAYS are 10-0 this Season ****

(315) Penn State -7.5 over Illinois
(3 UNITS for $66 - bet based on $20 units)
(324) Cincinnati -17 over Miami Ohio
(3 UNITS for $66 - bet based on $20 units)
(331) Temple +3 over Northern Illinois
(Forget the +3 points - Take Temple to win straight up +135 on the Money Line)
(3 UNITS for $60 on the MONEYLINE +135 - bet based on $20 units)

So these are the plays that you hope to get on the "sweep" list?
If so, I'm there with you bro!

LarryF · 10-09-10, 08:21 AM

Looks like a great Saturday for football, let's nail some wins!
BOL......

therber2 · 10-09-10, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by Sweatyguido

damn just got home and saw 6 unearned runs in the phillies game, thats an under killer. cant help to think i was still on the right side. cant really account for 6 unearned runs in a game. thats unbelieveable.

Sweatyguido, you're taking this loss the right way. Never go back to the drawing board right away because of a loss. Unearned runs are just shit luck most of the time...BUT what I did notice is a trend for Philly at home in the Playoffs....the fans help out a lot and skrew up fielding with their shit waving around.

It's true..

therber2 · 10-09-10, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by JMobile

So these are the plays that you hope to get on the "sweep" list?
If so, I'm there with you bro!

Yeap. Those are the top ones that are 10-0

Originally posted by LarryF

Looks like a great Saturday for football, let's nail some wins!
BOL......

GoggsViggs · 10-09-10, 12:05 PM

Lookin forward to ur nil picks bro

Aussiecapper101 · 10-09-10, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by GoggsViggs

Lookin forward to ur nil picks bro

kind of looking that way for the top plays atm

u meant nfl?

therber2 · 10-09-10, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by Aussiecapper101;6***069

kind of looking that way for the top plays atm

u meant nfl?

Yeah. Shit happens still a lot of plays lookin like 2-2 so far..

freeVICK · 10-09-10, 01:54 PM

whats your lean on the hawaii @ fresno game?

therber2 · 10-09-10, 02:34 PM

Originally posted by freeVICK;6***441

whats your lean on the hawaii @ fresno game?

Hawaii plus the points is the play there if you take any action.

freeVICK · 10-09-10, 02:59 PM

thanks bro. good to hear you like hawaii, i like them as well. gl today

do5000 · 10-09-10, 04:01 PM

lets make some $ back on Cin

hitman2010 · 10-09-10, 05:34 PM

let's get some $$ Ther.

JMobile · 10-09-10, 11:24 PM

therber, what you think about the Chargers minus points @ Raiders?

DeadManWalking · 10-09-10, 11:32 PM

Therber, will you be posting your NFL plays soon??

therber2 · 10-10-10, 01:27 AM

Originally posted by do5000

lets make some $ back on Cin

Hope you saw the 2 unit win on the Rays in the MLB section (also emailed).

therber2 · 10-10-10, 01:29 AM

Originally posted by DeadManWalking

Therber, will you be posting your NFL plays soon??

DMW, I will be posting NFL on Saturday mornings. I saw people straight up plagiarizing my work in other forums. Dealt with them... but I'm not going to throw plays out too far in advance except through email where I know everyone I'm sending my picks out to. If you want them early you can use google...

therber2 · 10-10-10, 01:38 AM

10/10 Review

MLB PLAYOFFS:

[967] Tampa Bay Rays over the Rangers (Garza -- Lewis)

(Take the RAYS +110 for $40 – 2 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
WIN +2.2 units
________________________________________ _________

THIS WAS THE WOUDA, COUDA, SHOUDA WEEK. I THOUGHT WE WOULD PULL IT OUT ON THE LATE GAMES, WE WERE EASILY WINNING THEM AT HALF TIME, AND COULD ONLY WIN ONE MORE.... I ALMOST USED MICHIGAN ST AT MY MONEY LINE PLAY, AND OF COURSE THEY WON. ANYWAY, SMALL LOSS FOR THE DAY...HAD SOME BAD LUCK, WITH BIG LEADS, AND THE OTHER TEAMS CAME BACK TO COVER. WILL GET THEM NEXT WEEK.

NCAA WEEK SIX

NCAAFB 2010(Week 6)
Record: $-58.00 (10/9/10) from $20.00 Units (9/11/10) 5-6 45.4% -2.9 Units
TOP PLAYS Record: 1-2 -58$66.00 -3.3 Units

NCAAFB 2010(Season record for 2010 Season)
Record:$2,477.00 (10/9/10) from $2,000.00 (8/26/10) 39-28-1 58.2.7% +23.85 Units
TOP PLAYS Record: 11-2 +$494.00 84.6% +25 Units

Thoughts: Here in Vegas the bettors who followed the line moves on college games thinking it was the smart money….Lost. Last week moves of two-points or great went 7-9 for the week. The STEAM GAMES (Those are games that were bet big and moved the line more than 3 points) were Memphis, Central Michigan, and Florida Atlantic. They all went down the tubes. Don’t be so quick to think line moves are smart moves. Sometimes the books will be the line in the wrong direction, trying to lure you into a bad bet.

Official Sports Betting numbers are in Brackets (xxx)

**** Top PLAYS are 10-0 this Season ****

(315) Penn State -7.5 over Illinois – Lost (Could Penn St play any worse, I don’t think so)
(3 UNITS for $66 - bet based on $20 units)
(324) Cincinnati -17 over Miami Ohio - WON
(3 UNITS for $66 - bet based on $20 units)
(331) Temple +3 over Northern Illinois - Lost
(Forget the +3 points - Take Cincinnati Bearcats to win straight up +135 on the Money Line) - Lost
(3 UNITS for $60 on the MONEYLINE +135 - bet based on $20 units)

JUST MISSED GROUP…

(318) Ohio State -21.5 over Indiana - WON
(2 UNITS for $44 - bet based on $20 units)
(350) Ohio -8.5 over Bowling Green - WON
(2 UNITS for $44 - bet based on $20 units)
(387) Auburn -6 over Kentucky - Lost
(2 UNITS for $44 - bet based on $20 units)
(400) S.M.U. -6.5 over Tulsa - Lost
(2 UNITS for $44 - bet based on $20 units)
(372) Texas Tech -2 over Baylor - WON
(2 UNITS for $44 - bet based on $20 units)

THE ONE UNIT PLAYS -The rest of the herd…

(343) Utah -6 over Iowa State - WON
(1 UNITS for $22 - bet based on $20 units)
(352) Southern Mississippi -8 over East Carolina - Lost
1 UNITS for $22 - bet based on $20 units)
(397) Toledo +39.5 over Boise State - Lost
(1 UNITS for $22 - bet based on $20 units)

Poppa Catfish · 10-10-10, 01:51 AM

Too bad, wish I could get them through email, but I will wait patiently

Thanks therber2 and better luck tomorrow

Aussiecapper101 · 10-10-10, 02:21 AM

Originally posted by Poppa Catfish

Too bad, wish I could get them through email, but I will wait patiently

Thanks therber2 and better luck tomorrow

google it to his website then email him and there you go.. easy

ClimbSomeRocks · 10-10-10, 02:24 AM

nice work. keep it up!

hawley · 10-10-10, 02:32 AM

Originally posted by Aussiecapper101

google it to his website then email him and there you go.. easy

never mind i found it

therber2 · 10-10-10, 08:53 AM

Week #5 NFL 10-10-10

NFL WEEK #5 Plays
(2010-2011 Season):

**************************************** **********
Some thoughts from Vegas: This sounds like a repeat, but the Dogs were barking once again last Sunday in the NFL. In the early games last week, the favorites could muster only one win in the first eight games, with the underdogs winning out right in four of the eight.
The public keeps looking at yesterday’s news… Remember this is the NFL kids, and these guys are pros, even when playing on bad teams. Everybody was sure Peyton Manning would destroy Jacksonville, the Colts barely won. How many points with Atlanta beat San Francisco by…The answer was two. And how could Washington ever beat the Eagles at home?….they did. In the NFL, its more than numbers, you have to be a coach and sniff out emotion.

We are seeing parity once again in the NFL. Last year you could take double digit favorites to the bank, not so much this year where the favorites of 10 points or more have gone 1-4. But, you need to be ready, this could change at any moment. That’s why many systems fail; things in the National Football league are always changing. One thing that we can usually count on is a stronger regression to the mean in NFL moreso than most other sports. We try to see the changes coming and stay one step ahead.

Week #5 Plays:

[435] Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 over the San Francisco 49ers
(Take the EAGLES for $110 – 5 UNITS bet based on $20 units)

A projection of 24-19 here for the Eagles.
**Top Play**

The 49ers played their Super Bowl last week, putting everything on the line. They Fired a Coach, suspended Players, changed game plans, but with seconds on the clock, they say Atlanta Kick a field goal to crush all their efforts. Did you see the look on these guys face…Heart breaking! (We backed the Niners who covered, so we weren’t quite as sad) There is no way in Hell, the 0-4 San Francisco squad can emotionally get up for this game. The best part of the San Francisco defense is against the run, which the Eagles wont’ be doing anyway.

Now Michael Vick is out, so everybody is on the Niners because of last week’s effort…”How can the Eagles win this away game without Michael”? Boo Hoo. Let me tell you something, the original Eagle QB Kevin Kolb, was never given a chance. Pressure on Coach Andy Reid from everywhere was on him, to promote Vick to number one. This will be Kolb’s Super Bowl on Sunday Night…Time to show everybody they were wrong. The Eagles lost at home last week to the Redskins, in the return of Donovan to Philly, they need to make a statement, Andy Reid needs to make a statement, we don’t need Vick, we don’t need anybody… We will show you.

Before Vick was out, my projected line was Philly -5, Now we get +3.5 points, because the world loves San Francisco. This is a public perception line, not a reality line. I am making this my game of the month. The Eagles will FLY.

[433] Tennessee Titans +7.5 over the Dallas Cowboys
(Take the TITANS for $66 – 3 UNITS bet based on $20 units)

Tennessee might be catching Dallas off guard a little bit; just how the Broncos caught the Titans off guard last week. This week the Titan's Chris Johnson will be ready for the Boy's 3-4 defense. Expect them to play a little more disciplined than they normally play. Dallas is coming out of their ill-timed bye. It was a sloppy start for the Boys, and as soon as they got going they had to close up shop again. Typically, the Cowboys are a team that starts off slow and picks up pace, and most people know this. The Boys are highly publicized, and people think that know the team. I am not arguing against that, I am just arguing against the public perception that the team really has picked up pace. To me, a team that finally picks things up and then comes immediately to a half to go to their bye; will probably come out looking more like they were from square one. The Titans need/want a win here. This is a fine bet.

[417] St. Louis Rams +3 over the Detroit Lions
(Take the RAMS for $55 – 2.5 UNITS bet based on $20 units)

A projection of 24-14 here for the Rams.

We told you about Sam Bradford last week, and he really delivered exposing the Seahawks. This week he takes his passing game to the Detroit Lions secondary, who are holding down the 29th spot as far as skill. What did you say…Oh, what if his passing game is off, no problem, the Lions are also rated 29th in Rushing Defense.
It’s a shame Matt Stafford will miss another game for Detroit; I would love to see these two young QB’s hook-up. Shaun Hill has done a good job in his absence. The 0-4 Lions have played their hearts out all year losing 3 very emotional games. We don’t think they can get up for this one against the 2-2 Rams, who are still playing under the radar. Give us the points and the Rams, in another heart breaker for the Lions.

[422] Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 over the Tampa Bay Bucs
(Take the BENGALS for $44 – 2 UNITS bet based on $20 units)

A projection of 29-18 here for the Bengals.

....but we know numbers and projections aren't everything. Here we have a team coming out of the Bye and one going in. A play on the struggling home favorite going into the bye typically is the move you want to make, and what we are going for here. Last week the Bengals put up the numbers against the Browns and lost. This is something to look for as a good quantified indicator of necessary emotional drive. This isn't so much a play against the Buccs as it is a play on a frustrated, but potentially capable Cincinnati Bengals. If this was any other team, but our potential sleeper (Tampa Bay) we'd have this one a bit larger (don't forget we have a futures wager in on Tampa's RSW's and to win the Division) so I don't want to make any extremely large wager against these guys. To be clear though, what we have here is an emotional drive similar to what you saw last week from the NY Giants against the Bears. Tampa may get a mouthful here from the Bengals and not even see it coming. Be careful, don't go too heavy on the Bengals; but I think they cover this one in a smooth win...but I may be wrong...

[415] Kansas City Chiefs +9 over the Colts
(Take the CHIEFS for $33 – 1.5 UNITS bet based on $20 units)

...Chiefs put up good stats against an Indianapolis Colts team with an injury list a mile long. 23-16 Chiefs here and look at all the points we have to work with.

[***] 7 pt. Teaser: PHI Eagles +10.5 and OAK Raiders +14
(Take the TEASER for $26 – 1 UNITS bet based on $20 units)
**Word of caution here about Oakland. My partner has the Chargers as a large bet, and I don't think he likes this bet on the Raiders. Maybe you like the Chargers too...fine; everyone thinks I'm nuts going with the Raiders and the points here, but I believe the game will be a close one. To me, the Chargers last game looked like a false start; but I may be wrong. The Raiders are going to have a little bit of trouble putting up points, but they have one of the best pass defenses in the league. In my opinion the Raiders will limit the air game, and keep this game close. As for who to tease it with...I don't see a better candidate :-)

Good luck guys!
Tom

Records:
NCAAFB 2010 Season:
Record:$2,508.00 (10/10/10) from $2,000.00 (8/26/10)
39-28-1 58.2.7% +25.4 Units

MLB 2010 Season:
Record: $5,790.00 (10/10/10) from $2000.00 (6/13/10)
+144.75 units

NFL 2010 Season:
Record: $2,267.00 (10/10/10) from $2,000.00 (8/26/10)
35-22-1 60.3% +13.38 units

rolybea · 10-10-10, 09:29 AM

Thank you and GL my friend

do5000 · 10-10-10, 10:14 AM

like the teaser

McBa1n · 10-10-10, 10:30 AM

Nice line shopping. Really like all the plays quite a bit. Nice value on the dog plays and great lines.

mrkron · 10-10-10, 10:48 AM

Really like all your plays but am backing off the Cinci play. Seems like Ocho and T.O. area cancer growing together in the Bengals Organization. With the talent they have they shoul dbe doing it!!!! Me smells a fart here!

falconticket · 10-10-10, 10:52 AM

like em, got all those picks except I like Tampa Bay to beat the spread today.

therber2 · 10-10-10, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by mrkron

Really like all your plays but am backing off the Cinci play. Seems like Ocho and T.O. area cancer growing together in the Bengals Organization. With the talent they have they shoul dbe doing it!!!! Me smells a fart here!

Originally posted by falconticket

like em, got all those picks except I like Tampa Bay to beat the spread today.

Lol...a fart...well, I like Tampa Bay as well. It was tough to pull the trigger against them, and I'm regretting not taking the Bears because that one came so close.

Let's see what happens.

therber2 · 10-10-10, 04:00 PM

Boy what a bad morning. Said my prayers...too..but I'm bad.

Needs these last three to cash or we have a real shit day....

therber2 · 10-10-10, 04:02 PM

TD Tennesse!!!

...can't believe the Chiefs one lost it by a point!

Detroit! Was really off there. Just hoping the 49ers don't go gettin' inspired.

therber2 · 10-10-10, 07:06 PM

Alright. It all comes down to the Eagles. Can they do it?