NFL Underground Leans - Week 1 (9/10-9/13)

[Dexter]

up 7.7 units for the week in the nfl, and have a pending 3x on gb -3. you know the drill with me - play with house money at the end of the week if you could. this was my favorite play of the week, and the movement is right.

added play:

(3x) packers -4.5 (so i now have 3x at gb -3 and 3x at gb -4.5)

[Dexter]

nice B2

[Dexter]

(2x) over pats 47.5

(2x) chargers -10 - i hate playing road favorites in the nfl, but i think russell is a nightmare, and you cant ignore the historical trends here. sd is 5-0 su/ats last 5 in oak winning by an avg margin of 14ppg.

[PacmanJr_00]

Thanks for that last tidbit. I was looking for a reason to get on SD. Hoping Merriman's distractions get him angry as well to wreck shop. The only thing that stops me from playing the NE/BUF over is my concern for Buf to score much at all. I'm worried NE scores in the 30s but Buf can get double digits.

I'm a little worried to put a little more on GB but, if they don't come up with anything in the first half, I am going to want to pound the halftime lines for GB.

[Dexter]

Sunday 9/20-

(5x) 49ers (pk) (A3 autobet) play any home team off a road win scoring 10-29 pts vs an opponent who scored 28-42 in their last game for 5x min.

(2x) under 49ers 40.5 - i think i will just continue to ride sf and the under for a while. they are all about defense and pounding the ball in 2009.

(2x) under redskins 37 - these are too anemic offenses who will look to feature portis/sjax on the ground all day in washington.

[Dexter]

Thanks for that last tidbit. I was looking for a reason to get on SD. Hoping Merriman's distractions get him angry as well to wreck shop. The only thing that stops me from playing the NE/BUF over is my concern for Buf to score much at all. I'm worried NE scores in the 30s but Buf can get double digits.

I'm a little worried to put a little more on GB but, if they don't come up with anything in the first half, I am going to want to pound the halftime lines for GB.

buffalo will be playing in a no huddle offense this year, so perhaps they throw the pats off on some series. im sure bill b will have them ready though. i see something like 37-17 pats.

[br5874]

Sunday 9/20-

(5x) 49ers (pk) (A3 autobet) play any home team off a road win scoring 10-29 pts vs an opponent who scored 28-42 in their last game for 5x min.

Any idea what the record on this one is over the years?

[Dexter]

Any idea what the record on this one is over the years?

i found this system about 12-13 years ago. there were seasons back then where it was 80% some years. the last few years its been more around 50-60%. i dont have an exact/accurate record, but i know its made me more money then any set nfl system over the years. thats why i go a min 5x on these.

[showtime2000]

Intersting line movements so far throughout the week in a couple of totals,

STL/SEA total 41.5
this has been the lowest the total has been set in 3 years h2h, yet public all on the over and opened up at 41.5 and dipped to 41.0.

BUF/NE total 47.5
this has been the highest the total has been set between these h2h, yet 1 in 6 games have these 2 teams reached 47 or more. Public on the over yet in dipped from 48 to 47.5

The STL/SEA under came in. Let's see how the other one fares.

[Dexter]

nice call on that showtime...

friggin packers - hold them to a fg here.

[Dexter]

oh baby - i cant believe gb covered.

crushed

*take the bears at home in a round 2 revenge play when cutler is more comfortable with his new team.

[africanroller]

went 3-0 on the big plays today and only lost the small bet on Cincy first half. Think I will pound the Pats and Chargers tonight.

[Saluki09]

Good call on revenge play in Chicago. I like Chicago hopefully +7.

[PacmanJr_00]

Jets will likely be an A3 autobet next week against the Pats.

[peterpan19]

next weekend fade the CARDS... east coast trip... JAC 5x buy it down to -3 right now...

tonight
PATS big... thinking about if I might play a small teaser too... PATS and the UNDER... will see

GL

[africanroller]

Yup hitting on the Pats big tonight. Also putting amedium bet on the Chargers. Also made a bet I never do and hope I dont get hosed. Played Federer huge and laid some big chalk. If he loses the computer may end up outside haha.

[Saluki09]

I got a parlay on Patriots and Chargers-7 at the half. Both the Bills and Raiders both seem vulernable to the pass, I can see Brady and Rivers having a field day.

[Danskeren]

next weekend fade the CARDS... east coast trip... JAC 5x buy it down to -3 right now...

tonight
PATS big... thinking about if I might play a small teaser too... PATS and the UNDER... will see

GL

I actually like Cardinals in this spot. Jaguars did not impress me at all and Cardinals showed that they could cloose down a running team. Their terrible offense costed the game, but it played better in the end of the game, and i expect them to keep this going.

What else do you like?

Im on:

Titans
Bears
Panthers

Leaning toward

Seahawks
Giants

[showtime2000]

Going with Buf/NE under 47.5.....Only once in the last 10 years has the total hit 45 points in games played in New Englang between these 2. All the other games were way under the total.

GLA

[Dexter]

Good call on revenge play in Chicago. I like Chicago hopefully +7.

lol - wishful thinking. the bears will be a 3 point fav next time.

[Dexter]

Going with Buf/NE under 47.5.....Only once in the last 10 years has the total hit 45 points in games played in New Englang between these 2. All the other games were way under the total.

GLA

BUT how many of those games were played later in the year when ice cold? tonight is ideal conditions, and you'll have both teams playing no huddle.

i think this game gets over the total....

one of us will be happy

[Dexter]

correct - if the pats score between 28-42 pts tonight, the jets are an A3 next week.

[Foghorn]

Yup hitting on the Pats big tonight. Also putting amedium bet on the Chargers. Also made a bet I never do and hope I dont get hosed. Played Federer huge and laid some big chalk. If he loses the computer may end up outside haha.

It's never as bad as it seems. All trends pointed to Federer, won last 5 years, playing a 20 year old who's never won. Just a loss, no more, no less. Let's rebound.

[Dexter]

over pats in the bag - now time for the "sucker" bet on sd! hey, the public is right sometimes!

[Dexter]

for about 3 minutes of the 2009 season, raider fans got excited. then the realization that jamarcus russell was still the qb set in...

[Dexter]

"darren sproles just has the kicker to beat"

nice call mike!

-how about russell making me eat my words

[africanroller]

All I can say is a have a huge hill to climb this week. I still cannot believe Federer lost after absolutely clobbering that kid in the first set. I thought it was completely over but once again it is gambling and anything can happen. I completely threw money management out the window for some easy money and got pounded.

[chadodaddio]

All I can say is a have a huge hill to climb this week. I still cannot believe Federer lost after absolutely clobbering that kid in the first set. I thought it was completely over but once again it is gambling and anything can happen. I completely threw money management out the window for some easy money and got pounded.

sorry to hear that africa fed completly went flat again in sets 4 and especially set 5 unbelieavable but i had a feeling about this delpotro kid he reminded me of young marat safin when he beat pete in 2000 totally unexpected he is going to win 4-6 majors in his career you watch