NFL Underground Leans - Week 1 (9/10-9/13)

[Dexter]

(2x) titans +5 - while i dont feel the titans will make the playoffs in 2009, i think they catch the steelers in a good spot post superbowl victory.

(1x) ravens -9 - early in the season i like to fade teams with new qb's and play teams with the same core players. expect kc to take a few weeks to get in sync with cassell, bowe etc (post TG era)

(2x) texans -4 - the texans will be one of the more fun teams to watch in 2009 - loaded on offense with the same core players of schaub, aj, daniels and the emerging slaton. sanchez is an autofade until he covers for me.

(2x) under cards 47 - i expect mike singeltary to bring a defensive/grind it out focus to the 49ers - they will lean heavily on frank gore and the cards are focused on running more in 2009 (that plan wont last for long)

(3x) packers -3 - rodgers and the pack return a high octane offense while the bears have new leadership under cutler. again, expect some growing pains with the new qb situation in chi.

[Dexter]

NFL autobets for me (may add 1 or 2 more after the first few weeks)

- fade any team who beats the steelers the next week at a minimum of 3x. (A1)

-fade any team that plays on the east coast at 1pm when their is a 3 hour time difference from their home state for a minimum of 2x. (A2)

-play any home team off a road win by 10-29 pts vs an opponent who scored 28-42 in their last game for 5x (A3)

-play any home dog getting 7-13 points off a game in which they scored 6-27 points, and are facing a team that is coming off a home win as a favorite for 2x min (A4)

[stats13]

how about put a gazillion return empty lines between all your little thingys

[Dexter]

how about put a gazillion return empty lines between all your little thingys

ha - cut and pasted from excel. thought i fixed it before anyone saw

[showtime2000]

Let's get this party started! Nice Dex, for getting the thread started. So far for Week 1.

Cleveland +3.5

[PingPong]

Dallas -4, maybe buy down to -3. Even if Roy Williams is hurt, I still like them to win by at least 7-10 pts.

[EXhoosier10]

NFL autobets for me (may add 1 or 2 more after the first few weeks) - fade any team who beats the steelers the next week at a minimum of 3x. (A1)

Where did you come up with this? I've just checked this out and I got that team to be 7-8 the following week. Do you mean ATS?

[KingKing]

i like this. thanks for sharing. BOL

[Dexter]

Where did you come up with this? I've just checked this out and I got that team to be 7-8 the following week. Do you mean ATS?

cocknocker gets credit for this autobet - he announced it way back.


my bad - it is any team who beats the steelers straight up (mindset is that a letdown will happen after beating the super bowl champs)

we made a killing with this angle in the nba when teams beat boston. next year, fade any team that beats the lakers straight up the following game.

[Dexter]

(1x) browns +3 - have to fade favre with the new team as a road favorite on grass. the browns return the same nucleus of a team (minus winslow)

[showtime2000]

(1x) browns +3 - have to fade favre with the new team as a road favorite on grass. the browns return the same nucleus of a team (minus winslow)

Good to see you on Cleveland too Dex!

[bypp]

I havent followed much of anything Cleveland. But why do you think they'll pull this out? The team and the coaching was horrible last year.

[kmarinouofm]

only pick that sticks out to me right now is Dolphins vs Falcons over 43 .. I will hit that 2 times..as far as units go..

I liked Cleveland in there first game way back when i saw the schedule at the beginning of the summer... But part of me isn't sure now..Farve has looked pretty decent and i expect him to play well.. so i might just cross that game off my original list..

[Dexter]

I havent followed much of anything Cleveland. But why do you think they'll pull this out? The team and the coaching was horrible last year.

first off, i always love me some home dogs in the nfl - throw in a dome team as a road fav on natural grass, and i really like the play.

i'm of the mindset that it will take favre a few weeks to get his chemistry down with a new team. the browns need to put 8 in the box and take their chances with favre.

the browns have changed coaches - eric mangini is now running the show.

[showtime2000]

Here's a list of futures that i will be playing,

Dallas Total Team wins over 9 -115
(road games against TB,KC,DEN and home games against OAK,ATL,SEA,CAR. Splits within their div should push them above 9. Good running game, good def, good Oline)

Green Bay Total Team wins over 8.5 -125
(7 of their 10 losses were by 4 points or less)

New Orleans Saints Total Team wins over 9 -110
(Great additions to their def this season. Lost alot of close games last year.)


New Orleans Saints to win NFC South +165 (homie play!)

[peterpan19]

titans, ravens, packers... look good to me too... still crunching the numbers... will have all my plays up soon...

todays PR system plays for college:
Wake Forest and New Mexico St.

GL guys (and its early so not a lot of plays, and quality over quantity, even if I would like to play more but I will stick to 2 plays only today...)

edit:
adding Alabama... neutral place...forgot it...alabama is a play now...

[Dexter]

i hear ya peter - i feel like i played too many, but we'll see.

[Dexter]

2009-2010 Predictions-

AFC East-

1) Patriots 12-4
2) Dolphins 9-7 *
3) Bills 6-10
4) Jets 5-11

AFC South-

1) Colts 12-4
2) Texans 8-8
3) Titans 8-8
4) Jags 6-10

AFC North-

1) Ravens 11-5
2) Steelers 10-6 *
3) Browns 8-8
4) Bengals 5-11

AFC West-

1) Chargers 11-5
2) Chiefs 7-9
3) Broncos 6-10
4) Raiders 4-12

*********************
NFC East-

1) Giants 12-4
2) Eagles 11-5 *
3) Cowboys 9-7
4) Redskins 5-11

NFC South-

1) Panthers 11-5
2) Falcons 10-6 *
3) Saints 9-7
4) Bucs 4-12

NFC North-

1) Packers 11-5
2) Vikings 9-7
3) Bears 8-8
4) Lions 3-13

NFC West-

1) 49ers 9-7
2) Cards 8-8
3) Seahawks 6-10
4) Rams 4-12

*****************
AFC Championship Game ~ Patriots over Ravens

NFC Championship Game ~ Packers over Giants


Superbowl ~ Packers over Patriots

[Dexter]

make your predictions fellas!

[peterpan19]

never realy that good at it, but I will give it a try:

2009-2010 Predictions-

AFC East-

1) Patriots 13-3
2) Dolphins 8-8
3) Jets 5-11
4) Bills 4-12

AFC South-
1) Colts 14-2
2) Titans 9-7*
3) Texans 7-9
4) Jags 5-11

AFC North-

1) Ravens 14-2
2) Steelers 12-4*
3) Browns 4-12
4) Bengals 3-13

AFC West-

1) Chargers 11-5
2) Raiders 7-9
3) Broncos 5-11

4) Chiefs 3-13

NFC East-

1) Eagles 12-4
2) Giants 12-4*
3) Cowboys 8-8
4) Redskins 4-12

NFC South-

1) Falcons 10-6
2) Panthers 8-8
3) Saints 7-9
4) Bucs 2-14

NFC North-

1) Packers 11-5
2) Lions 8-8
3) Bears 8-8
4) Vikings 7-9

NFC West-

1) Cards 10-6
2) 49ers 9-7 *
3) Seahawks 5-11
4) Rams 3-13


AFC Championship Game ~ Ravens over Patriots

NFC Championship Game ~ Cards over Eagles


Superbowl ~ Cards over Ravens

and yes I am a Cardinals Fan...

[4TH AND STUPID]

the best defense in the nfl will not finish with 9 wins [peterpan], nor 8 wins [dexter] respectively.

i laughed when i heard these types of predictions last year from CBS and FOX [ 8 win titans]... and i wont hesitate to laugh again.

did you REALLY think those 13 wins , including the one over pittsburgh in week 15, were co-incidences?

what was the one greatest weakness of the titans ? WR. so they drafted kenny britt, and thiefed nate washington from pittsburgh.

and yes , kerry collins isnt the best qb in the world, but with that defense and those running backs and jeff fisher's system, you only need a "game manager". it worked perfect last year, and will be even better this year.

chris johnson is the fastest running back in the nfl. and lendale white is strong . "smash and dash".. is what they named them on monday night football. did you guys forget all of this? the defense is ALL healthy, and one year stronger, better , and smarter. and FILLED with pro bowl talent. and i mean filled.

titans will win a minimum of 11 games. dont forget any of this.

[Grosshhit]

Damn Dexter thanks for giving my Brownies some credit. I think the Mangenious can actually pull out a W for the Browns Sunday

[username474]

the best defense in the nfl will not finish with 9 wins [peterpan], nor 8 wins [dexter] respectively.

i laughed when i heard these types of predictions last year from CBS and FOX [ 8 win titans]... and i wont hesitate to laugh again.

did you REALLY think those 13 wins , including the one over pittsburgh in week 15, were co-incidences?

what was the one greatest weakness of the titans ? WR. so they drafted kenny britt, and thiefed nate washington from pittsburgh.

and yes , kerry collins isnt the best qb in the world, but with that defense and those running backs and jeff fisher's system, you only need a "game manager". it worked perfect last year, and will be even better this year.

chris johnson is the fastest running back in the nfl. and lendale white is strong . "smash and dash".. is what they named them on monday night football. did you guys forget all of this? the defense is ALL healthy, and one year stronger, better , and smarter. and FILLED with pro bowl talent. and i mean filled.

titans will win a minimum of 11 games. dont forget any of this.

I'm with you I have alot of love for this team. I think we are in the minority though. I looked at their advanced schedule lines at Lucky's and M resort very soft for a team this deep.

[Dexter]

the best defense in the nfl will not finish with 9 wins [peterpan], nor 8 wins [dexter] respectively.

i laughed when i heard these types of predictions last year from CBS and FOX [ 8 win titans]... and i wont hesitate to laugh again.

did you REALLY think those 13 wins , including the one over pittsburgh in week 15, were co-incidences?

what was the one greatest weakness of the titans ? WR. so they drafted kenny britt, and thiefed nate washington from pittsburgh.

and yes , kerry collins isnt the best qb in the world, but with that defense and those running backs and jeff fisher's system, you only need a "game manager". it worked perfect last year, and will be even better this year.

chris johnson is the fastest running back in the nfl. and lendale white is strong . "smash and dash".. is what they named them on monday night football. did you guys forget all of this? the defense is ALL healthy, and one year stronger, better , and smarter. and FILLED with pro bowl talent. and i mean filled.

titans will win a minimum of 11 games. dont forget any of this.

love the avatar - where are you from?

PS: you just lost one of (if not) the best defensive tackle in the NFL.

i did bet your team in week 1 though + the 5.

[4TH AND STUPID]

love the avatar - where are you from?

PS: you just lost one of (if not) the best defensive tackle in the NFL.

i did bet your team in week 1 though + the 5.

haha.. i had to bring out the tennessee yellow towel mockery for this weeks game.

i am on the titans money line as i believe they have a lot more to prove to people than pittsburgh on national television. you can bet coach jeff will have the boys rowdy on thursday and the tennessee defense is like a hive of wasps. you try to put one down and it sends a distress signal to the rest. they attack and get at the ball like crazy , all 11 as a unit.

dont forget dexter, they sent pittsburgh a message last year as well, and that was also, without haynesworth playing . also, nate washington knows a thing or two about pittsburgh's offense.

i am also on the browns money line. a word of advice- forget the spread, take the money line(for the browns). and also look for houston to send a bigtime message by blowing out the jets. and i am also on the packers spread as they will score and score often, despite the bears defense. i also like your baltimore spread pick although i will purchase a few points to bring it down to -7... and i like the bengals this week...

nice to see we are on the same picks. lets cash.

[Gance9]

Jets 5-11? Are you kidding me. Same team with better defense and got rid of mistake-Farve. Try 10-6

[Dexter]

Jets 5-11? Are you kidding me. Same team with better defense and got rid of mistake-Farve. Try 10-6

yeah, with a rookie qb who has no receivers.

where are you from?

[slacker00]

I like the Titans & Texans week 1. We agree there.

I hate the Ravens laying that much wood, I don't care who they are playing.

Packers? Meh. I'm laying off this one. The Packers have looked great this preseason, but that's preseason.


Season wins, downgrade the friggin Colts. Good grief. That division is razor tight. The Colts are not going to run away with that division by 4 games like usual. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Colts get 4th place with a record like 9-7.

In the NFC, upgrade the Vikings. This team is stacked, friggin stacked. This team won the division last year with nobody at QB, now they've got a HOF QB. For the first time in Favre's career he doesn't have to carry the team. This year's Vikings should be defined by defense & the running game on offense. If Favre can play like the late career Elway, which I think he can and will, then the Vikings are going to be the force of the NFC North. As for week 1, you Browns backers gotta be nuts, that team is in chaos. Don't sleep on Favre.

[Dexter]

your right - 12 wins is a lot for the colts

i obviously am very high on the packers though. not a fan of favre - at all.

[Dexter]

couldnt edit the post - lets go 11-5 for the Colts

[showtime2000]

Intersting line movements so far throughout the week in a couple of totals,

STL/SEA total 41.5
this has been the lowest the total has been set in 3 years h2h, yet public all on the over and opened up at 41.5 and dipped to 41.0.

BUF/NE total 47.5
this has been the highest the total has been set between these h2h, yet 1 in 6 games have these 2 teams reached 47 or more. Public on the over yet in dipped from 48 to 47.5

[Italia_NYC]

Jets 5-11? Are you kidding me. Same team with better defense and got rid of mistake-Farve. Try 10-6

I actually think that's about fair. Who really thinks they will win more than 5-6 games this season? New coach, new rookie QB, no name receivers.... If they go 8-8 this season I'd consider that very good all things considered. They'll have to ride their defense all season. One injury to anyone in that department and their all but doomed.

[Dexter]

added play (good eye showtime - sea/sl actually opened at 43 per sbr and scoresandodds)

(2x) under seahawks 41.5 - i had a lean on this one at 43. the movement is legit. could close at 40 the more i think about it. the rams should play to the low a lot this year. sea's offense is a question mark to me..lets see tj housh play in the #1 role.

[showtime2000]

Having a look at the schedule i found some defiencies that might come into play throughout the year and help when breaking down the matchups. Use this for future reference.


ARI - there's a stretch between 11/22 to 12/20 were they play 4 of 5 on the road..possible fade
GB - 4 of the last 6 games of the year are on the road, and they get Bal, Chi,Pit in a row then home to Sea. 3 tough games in a row
DEN - Oak, Dal,NE and then away at SD coming off a bye..3 tough games and then have to go on road to play a rested SD
STL - 3 of 4 first games are on the road with 2 being in different time zones for them, @Sea,@Was,GB,@SF
PHIL - a stretch of games were they play @Wash,NYG,DAL,@SD,@CHI,WASH....that's 6very difficult games, fade material there.

[xxxvince]

screw u all vikings haters!